首先最大的一个不同就是当下所处的位置不同。要看到在目前这个位置，上证指数它已经站在了短期均 线的上方，而且它今天这个位置其实收盘已经站到了所有均线的上方，那只要在这个地方横盘震荡一段 时间，或者保持哪怕是保持一点时间，短期均线上穿上面的60天线和120天线，它就会进入到一个全面 的多头排列的格局。而两年前的那个时间段它是一个中长期均线全部向下的一个过程，处在一个大的下 降趋势里面，这是最大的不同。那么短期这个地方今天高开低走也很简单，因为短期乖离率过大了，经 过昨天的大幅上涨，再加上今天早盘的一个大幅高开以后，大家可以看到这个指数离下方的这些短期均 线位置比较远，这就是乖离率过大。那么根据均值回归的这样一种规律，它有往回走的这样一个意图， 或者说有这样一种修复的需要那修复它就有两种，一种是主动往回走靠，还有一种就是在这横盘震荡， 通过时间慢慢消化，让下方的均线慢慢的跟上来，那后一种是比较强势的这种格局。 个人的主观倾向是后一种发生的概率会比较大，也就是接下来两天可能指数在这还会维持着一种震荡， 但这是一种强势的震荡，它的目的就是消化，消化完了，方向还是继续向上的。因此对于今天的一个短 期走势，大家不要过于的一 ...

黄金多头跃跃欲试，新的趋势开启了吗？空头能否守住底线？金十研究员Steven正在直播，点击进入直 播间观看>> 相关链接 ...

黄金价格剑指3500！"通胀+衰退"双重困境？金价多头势力能否持续扩张？日内交易者应该如何布局？ TTPS团队交易学长正在分析中，立即观看！ 相关链接 黄金行情将讲解中 ...

著名的"美元微笑理论"创立者、Eurizon SLJ Capital首席执行官Stephen Jen周三表示，随 着亚洲国家逐步减持其储备的美元，美元可能面临高达2.5万亿美元的"雪崩式"抛售。 Jen和其同僚Joana Freire在一份最新发表的报告中写道，由于亚洲地区对美国的贸易顺差不 断扩大，亚洲出口商和投资者多年积累的美元储备可能已形成了"极其庞大"的规模。而随着美 国主导的贸易战升级，部分亚洲投资者可能会将大量资金汇回国内，或加大对美元贬值的对冲 力度，这可能将引发对这一全球储备货币的抛售潮。 "我们怀疑亚洲出口商和机构投资者囤积的美元规模可能非常大————估计约达2.5万亿美 元，这将对美元兑亚洲货币汇率构成重大下行风险，"报告写道。 随着特朗普扰乱全球贸易秩序的做法，促使投资者重新审视"美国例外论"的交易策略，美元的 长期吸引力目前正面临威胁。 上周五和本周一，新台币汇率连续两天异乎寻常的大幅跳涨，就一度引发了各方的关注。行情 数据显示，目前彭博美元指数较2月高点已下跌了约8%，过去一个月所有亚洲货币兑美元均 呈现升值态势。 Jen此前曾预测，当美联储降息时，中国企业抛售美元计价资产，或将促使 ...

聚焦美联储利率决议，黄金高位下跌，多头还有机会吗？美元测试阻力，黄金不破此位置，仍有上涨空 间？点击查看详细分析 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The recent developments in US-China tariff negotiations have suppressed the upward momentum of gold prices, which experienced a significant increase over the past two days before starting to decline [1] - Currently, the bullish sentiment in the market is slightly prevailing, with attention on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision and its potential implications for market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 72% compared to 28% bearish, while the S&P 500 Index has 59% bullish and 41% bearish sentiment [3] - The Nasdaq Index has a significant bearish sentiment with 84% compared to 16% bullish, while the Dow Jones Index shows a more balanced sentiment with 56% bullish and 44% bearish [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index has a bullish sentiment of 53% against 47% bearish, and the German DAX 40 Index shows a strong bearish sentiment of 84% compared to 16% bullish [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair has a bearish sentiment of 79% against 21% bullish, while the Euro/GBP pair shows a strong bullish sentiment of 69% compared to 31% bearish [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has 59% bullish and 41% bearish sentiment, while the Euro/AUD pair shows 39% bullish against 61% bearish [3] - The GBP/USD pair has a bearish sentiment of 77% compared to 23% bullish, and the GBP/JPY pair is nearly balanced with 49% bullish and 51% bearish [3] - The USD/JPY pair shows a balanced sentiment of 49% bullish and 51% bearish, while the USD/CAD pair has a strong bullish sentiment of 76% against 24% bearish [3] - The USD/CHF pair has a very strong bullish sentiment of 90% compared to 10% bearish [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair shows a nearly balanced sentiment with 51% bullish and 49% bearish, while the AUD/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 60% against 40% bearish [4] - The CAD/JPY pair shows a slight bullish sentiment of 52% compared to 48% bearish, while the NZD/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 60% against 40% bearish [4] - The NZD/JPY pair has a strong bearish sentiment of 67% compared to 33% bullish, and the USD/CNH pair shows a very strong bullish sentiment of 86% against 14% bearish [4]

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 研究所 - 2025.04.14 金工周报 高波强势，基本面回撤——中邮因子周报 20250504 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理:金晓杰 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100010 Email:jinxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《基金 Q1 加仓有色汽车传媒，减仓电 新食饮通信——公募基金 2025Q1 季报 点评》 - 2025.04.30 《年报效应边际递减，右侧买入信号 触发——微盘股指数周报 20250427》 - 2025.04.27 《动量波动分化，低波高涨占优—— 中邮因子周报 20250427》 - 2025.04.27 《OpenAI 发布 GPT-4.1，智谱发布 GLM-4-32B-0414 系列——AI 动态汇总 20250421》 - 2025.04.23 《国家队交易特征显著，短期指数仍 交易补缺预期，TMT 类题材仍需等待— —行业轮动周报 20250420》 - 2025.04.21 《小市值强势，动量风格占优——中 邮 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has surged significantly, reaching a high of $3387.05 per ounce, driven by bearish sentiment towards the US dollar and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][2]. Market Analysis - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, with a cumulative increase of approximately $150, indicating a robust bullish momentum after a period of consolidation [2]. - The key resistance level is identified at $3386 per ounce, which aligns with the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, suggesting that this point will be crucial for future price movements [4]. - The market is advised to monitor the support level at $3350 per ounce; a breach below this could lead to further declines, while maintaining above it may allow for continued upward movement [4][5]. Technical Indicators - The current trading strategy suggests a focus on buying on dips within the $3368-$3373 range, with a stop loss set at $3362 and a target of $3390-$3400 [6]. - The short-term support levels are identified at $3370-$3364, with stronger support at $3360, while resistance levels are noted at $3386 and $3400 [5][6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is approaching, leading to heightened bullish sentiment in the gold market [1] - There is speculation on whether gold prices can break through previous resistance levels during the U.S. trading session [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have significantly corrected this week, retreating over 7% from last week's historical high, but analysts suggest that the market is not experiencing panic, indicating a healthy adjustment phase [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Despite the short-term adjustment, the bullish logic for gold remains solid, with investors willing to "buy on dips" due to ongoing policy fluctuations from the Trump administration and a slowdown in the U.S. economy providing strong support for gold [3] - The market's reaction during the May Day holiday, where gold prices fell to the critical support level of $3200, will determine whether investors will sell or buy on dips, influencing short-term trends [3] Group 2: Price Levels and Trends - Gold is currently stabilizing around the $3250 mark, with a need to break through the $3300 barrier for further upward movement, though market readiness for this breakthrough is still uncertain [1] - The key support levels are identified between $3160 and $3170, with a significant reassessment of bullish views if prices drop below $2950 [3] - The market is expected to continue its adjustment trend, with a focus on the pressure level at $3265 for potential upward movement or short-selling opportunities [5][6]