季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei015111@gtjas.com 2025 年 06 月 06 日 商 品 研 究 铜：库存持续走低，支撑价格 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,170 | -0.04% | 78570 | 0.51% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,708 | 0.61% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 64,095 | -47,287 | 193,023 | -2,191 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 27,589 | 13,389 | 283,000 | -1,146 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 31,687 | -246 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 138,000 | -3,350 | 60.36% ...

先锋期货期权日报 2025-6-5 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现，未来的回报也无法保证，投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下,我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任,投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下,我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标的 | 平值期权隐 | 排名 | 标的30天历 | 排名 | 标的当日 | 排名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | sc2507 | 2.3% | 1 | 2.3% | 2 | 2.0% | 10 | | sn2507 | 2.1% | 2 | 1.3% | 17 | 0.8% | 42 | | ps2507 | 2.1% | 3 | 1.9% | 4 | 2.0% | 11 | | si2507 | 2.1% | 4 | 1.8% | 8 | 2.6% | ...

金融期权 2025/06/05 金融期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 金融期权策略早报概要： （1）股市短评：上证综指数、大盘蓝筹股、中小盘股和创业板股表现为盘整震荡行情。 （2）金融期权波动性分析：金融期权隐含波动率历史较低水平水平波动。 （3）金融期权策略与建议：对于ETF期权来说，适合构建备兑策略和偏中性的双卖策略，垂直价差组合策略；对于 股指期权来说，适合构建偏中性的双卖策略和期权合成期货多头或空头与期货空头或多头做套利策略。 表1：金融市场重要指数概况 | 重要指数 | 指数代码 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 额变化 | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | ...

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Core Viewpoint - The proposed merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang has sparked significant interest in the capital market, particularly leading to a surge in trading activity in related Xinchuang-themed ETFs [1][2]. Group 1: Merger Announcement and Market Reaction - The strategic restructuring plan between Zhongke Shuguang and Haiguang Information was announced on May 25, with their stocks suspended from trading starting May 26, marking a significant event as the first absorption merger transaction between listed companies under new regulations by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [2]. - The suspension of these stocks has led investors to seek alternative investment opportunities, particularly in Xinchuang-themed ETFs, which include both companies among their top holdings, accounting for over 10% of the total weight in the indices they track [2]. Group 2: ETF Performance and Fund Inflows - As of June 3, the total scale of seven Xinchuang-themed ETFs reached 2.544 billion yuan, a more than 110% increase from 1.188 billion yuan on May 23, with a net inflow of 1.338 billion yuan since the suspension of the individual stocks [2]. - Several ETFs experienced significant growth in scale, with the Guotai Xinchuang ETF increasing from 124 million yuan to 578 million yuan (over 360% growth), and the Fuguo Xinchuang ETF more than doubling from 58 million yuan to 247 million yuan [3]. Group 3: Risk Management and Fund Company Responses - In response to the influx of funds and the inability to adjust holdings due to stock suspensions, several fund managers, including Fuguo Fund and Guotai Fund, issued risk warnings and implemented purchase restrictions to protect existing investors from potential dilution of their interests [5]. - The actions taken by fund companies reflect concerns over tracking errors and deviations due to the rapid inflow of capital into ETFs, highlighting the speculative nature of this investment strategy amid the ongoing merger developments [5].

我觉得这些新消费里面，应该会有一些公司可以长期跑出来，比如泡泡玛特如果还能继续搞出下一个labubu，那还会继续牛，继续有100%以上的增长。 但其他一些业绩不好的新消费股也炒到这么高估值，很明显是不合理的。就是蹭着新消费，对标泡泡玛特说IP经济的概念故事割韭菜。 但这对我们组合配置的消费基金影响不大，因为恒生消费指数目前的PE估值也才18倍左右，而2021年A股的中证消费指数PE估值是55倍PE。所以，目前 消费股炒作也只局限于部分新消费股，持有指数ETF的话不用过分担心，我们持有的大部分消费股的估值依然便宜而且股东分红回报率不低。 数据来源：Wind 2、部分老读者朋友知道，我们小丸子也是在2021年接近行情顶部的时候买房。不过幸运的是，她当初没有听她家里人的意见去郊区买"远大新"，而是选 择了在中山大学附近买了套"老破小"。由于周边有多所学校的教师人群住房需求支撑，所以她那里租售比不低。再加上加装了电梯，电梯带来的升值抵消 了部分房价下行，估计整体就跌10%左右。 每次跟小丸子聊起，她都觉得当初买老破小是很明智的选择。相比之下，她的表姐在2020年买了郊区的增城碧桂园云顶。我查了下，好家伙，这是广 州" ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Bank of America indicates that the 1-month HIBOR has significantly dropped from 4% to 0.58% in one month, raising questions about its potential recovery to 4% given the current SOFR remains at 4% [1][7]. HIBOR and SOFR Dynamics - The report emphasizes that the behavior of HIBOR and the willingness for HKD arbitrage transactions will differ from previous weak-side Currency Board (CU) cycles due to the current bearish USD environment and strong inflows into HKD driven by positive momentum in the Chinese stock market [1][4]. - Bank of America predicts that the 1-month HIBOR will peak at 2.60% in Q4 2025, which is lower than the nearly 3% implied yield for the same period [2][3]. HIBOR Forecasts - The revised forecasts for HIBOR and USD/HKD exchange rates are as follows: - Current: 1-month HIBOR at 0.59%, 3-month HIBOR at 1.32%, USD/HKD at 7.85 - Q3 2025: 1-month HIBOR at 1.00%, 3-month HIBOR at 1.50%, USD/HKD at 7.85 - Q4 2025: 1-month HIBOR at 2.60%, 3-month HIBOR at 2.70%, USD/HKD at 7.85 - Q1 2026: 1-month HIBOR at 2.60%, 3-month HIBOR at 2.80%, USD/HKD at 7.83 - Q2 2026: 1-month HIBOR at 2.60%, 3-month HIBOR at 2.80%, USD/HKD at 7.81 - Q3 2026: 1-month HIBOR at 2.60%, 3-month HIBOR at 2.80%, USD/HKD at 7.78 - Q4 2026: 1-month HIBOR at 2.40%, 3-month HIBOR at 2.60%, USD/HKD at 7.75 [3]. Market Conditions and Arbitrage - The report suggests that the current level of HIBOR is primarily driven by supply factors, particularly the aggregate balance, which has increased significantly from a recent low of 45 billion HKD to 171 billion HKD [16][19]. - The interest in USD arbitrage transactions is expected to remain low due to market expectations of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, which will hinder the demand for long USD/HKD positions [26][30]. Conclusion on HIBOR Trends - Bank of America concludes that the current weak-side CU cycle is likely to be shorter than previous cycles, lasting until Q3 2025, as the HIBOR-SOFR spread narrows and reduces the motivation for further HKD arbitrage transactions [30].

| 标 的 | 平值期权隐 | 排 名 | 标的30天历 | 排 名 | 标的当日 | 排 名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | ps2507 | 2.4% | 1 | 1.9% | 5 | 3.9% | 5 | | sc2507 | 2.4% | 2 | 2.3% | 2 | 4.5% | 2 | | si2507 | 2.3% | 3 | 1.6% | 12 | 1.8% | 28 | | lc2507 | 2.3% | 4 | 1.7% | 10 | 2.6% | 16 | | sn2507 | 2.1% | 5 | 1.1% | 27 | 1.7% | 29 | | ao2507 | 2.0% | 6 | 2.6% | 1 | 4.8% | 1 | | br2507 | 2.0% | 7 | 2.0% | 3 | 3.9% | 6 | | fg507 | 1.8% | 8 | 1.4% | 14 | 2.7% | 14 | | sm507 | 1.8% | 9 | 1.9% | ...

2.月差：沪深300IF2506-2507价差为39.2，上证50IH2506-2507价差为30.2，中证500IC2506-2507价差为 68.8，中证1000IM2506-2507价差为91.2。 1.基差：沪深300 IF2506合约贴水26.34，上证50 IH2506合约贴水17.22，中证500 IC2506合约贴水 51.21，中证1000 IM2506合约贴水69.17； 6月4日股指期货套利监测日报 金十期货6月4日讯， ...

国债期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/6/4 一、国债期货宏观及市场展望 • 周度宏观及消息面 • 国债后市展望 上周国债期货震荡。资金方面，上周央行净投放6566亿元。上周十年期国债利率略降；长期看，十年 期国债利率处于历史低位。 技术上，T2509合约短期价格位于40日均线附近。操作方面，国债市场价格高位震荡，利率仍处低位 区间，中长期看上方空间有限，短期逢低买入。 国内消息：中国5月财新制造业PMI录得48.3，较4月下降2.1个百分点，2024年10月来首次跌至临界点 以下。 国外消息：美国财政部公布了其最新国债回购操作的结果，其规模却达到了前所未有的程度：高达100亿 美元，这是美国财政部有史以来规模最大的单次国债回购操作。 二、国债期货行情 • 价格走势：上周国债期货区间震荡 数据来源：博易大师、华金期货 三、国债收益率变化 • 收益率变化：上周长期利率下降，收益率利差收窄 | 日期 | 3M | 1Y | 2Y | 5Y | 10Y | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-23 | 1.4138 | 1.4461 | 1.471 ...