Group 1: Land Market - The land market shows signs of partial recovery, with first-tier and new first-tier cities experiencing increased competition for residential land, as the average premium rate in first-tier cities rose to 7.1% in May, the highest in nearly a year [3] - In contrast, third and fourth-tier cities continue to struggle, with a high land auction failure rate of 21.3% in May, indicating a cautious approach from developers who are only targeting the safest core areas [3] - State-owned enterprises dominate the land market, accounting for over 70% of land acquisition amounts, while many private enterprises remain burdened by debt and are unable to expand [3] Group 2: Housing Sales - The second-hand housing market is showing signs of recovery, with transaction volumes in 14 major cities increasing by nearly 10% month-on-month in May, and price indices slightly rising by 0.1% [4] - The new housing market is experiencing slow growth, with some core cities seeing a month-on-month increase in new housing transaction areas, although year-on-year figures still show a decline [5] - Third and fourth-tier cities face significant pressure, with an average inventory turnover period of 28 months, indicating a lack of market vitality [5] Group 3: Policy Support - Various "market rescue" measures have been implemented, including historic low mortgage rates and reduced down payment ratios [6] - The "old-for-new" model has been introduced in over 50 cities to facilitate housing exchanges [7] - Core cities have significantly relaxed purchase restrictions, which may temporarily boost market confidence and demand, but the sustainability of these effects depends on broader economic improvements [8] Group 4: Market Outlook - The most severe phase of the real estate market's decline may have passed, with some indicators showing signs of stabilization, but a full recovery is not yet evident [9] - The recovery is fragile and heavily reliant on policy support and price adjustments, with a clear structural differentiation in recovery across different regions and asset types [9] - The belief in continuously rising property prices has been shattered, and restoring confidence will require time and solid economic fundamentals [9]

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is experiencing significant fluctuations, with a notable decline in new home sales and second-hand home prices in 2024, but signs of recovery are emerging in 2025 [1][3][4] Market Performance - In 2024, the national new residential sales area decreased by 12.9%, and second-hand home prices fell across all major cities, with Xiamen seeing a drop of 13.1% [1] - By April 2025, 22 out of 70 major cities reported a month-on-month increase in new home prices, and the transaction volume of second-hand homes in core areas like Beijing and Shanghai surged by 30% year-on-year [3] Policy Changes - The central government is actively promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, with measures such as reducing down payment ratios to 15% and lowering mortgage rates to just above 3% [3] - A significant investment plan for 2025 includes the addition of 1 million urban village renovation projects and the conversion of existing housing stock into affordable housing [3] Market Segmentation - Major cities and strong second-tier cities are stabilizing due to economic vitality and population inflow, while third and fourth-tier cities are struggling with significant declines in land sale revenues and high inventory levels [4][5] - In June 2025, the average new home price in Zhengzhou was 13,404 yuan per square meter, with core area properties showing strong sales, while suburban areas continued to see price declines of 3%-8% [3][4] Investment Opportunities - The shift in policy to classify real estate as "mass consumption" is expected to stimulate demand, particularly for larger homes with improved standards [5] - Financial innovations such as REITs for affordable housing and commercial properties are providing new funding avenues for developers, potentially stabilizing returns for investors [5] Future Outlook - Predictions indicate that core city home prices may rise by 3%-5% with transaction volumes increasing by 15%, while third and fourth-tier cities may continue to see price declines of 3%-8% [6] - The overall sentiment suggests that the real estate market is nearing a bottom, with a high probability of recovery in the coming year [5][6]

房地产行业跟踪周报 新房成交面积环比改善，二手房成交同比持续 正增 增持（维持） 2025 年 06 月 03 日 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·房地产 证券分析师 房诚琦 执业证书：S0600522100002 fangcq@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -18% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 27% 32% 2024/6/3 2024/10/2 2025/1/31 2025/6/1 房地产 沪深300 相关研究 《LPR 下调 10 基点，持续推进城市更 新》 2025-05-26 《"三问物业行业"系列报告之三—— 不谋长远者，无以图当下》 2025-05-23 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 | 图 | 1： | 全国 | 36 城商品住宅成交面积及同环比 6 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 2： | 4 | 座一线城市新房成交面积及同环比（北京、上海、广州、深圳） 6 | | 图 | 3： | 5 | 座新一线城市新房成交面积及同环比（杭州、武汉、成都、青岛、苏州） 6 | | 图 | 4： | 6 | 座二线城市新房成交面积及同环 ...

智通财经6月4日电，据深圳市房地产中介协会统计，2025年5月全市二手房录得（系深房中协以二手房 买卖合同发起时间为口径统计的数据，并非最终成交套数）5727套，环比下降13.2%，同比增长 17.6%。5月二手房录得量虽呈下滑走势，但从绝对值看，单月仍超5000套，在传统淡季月份保持较好 市场行情。2025年5月全市预售新房共成交2209套，环比下降22.4%，同比下降7.0%，其中住宅成交 2054套，环比下降20.6%，同比增长2.2%。新房住宅成交同比小幅增长，整体仍承压。截至2025年6月2 日，据深圳市房地产信息平台公开在售二手房数量统计，全市有效在售二手房源71791套，对比上月同 期统计的72391套在售房源减少600套，环比下降0.8%，随着二手房市场成交量有所下滑，业主委托出 售意愿有所减弱，市场呈现短期观望态势。 深房中协：5月深圳二手房录得量维持5000套以上水平 ...

文章指出，稳步增加居民收入是激活消费引擎、拉动经济增长的关键，也是保障人民共享发展成果、实 现共同富裕的重要基础。稳步增加居民收入，首先需稳就业。稳步增加居民收入，还要拓宽增收渠道， 特别是增加财产性收入。要稳定资本市场，推动"长钱长投"，提升资本市场回报率。推动房地产市场平 稳健康发展也是关键。房地产是居民资产中最大的一部分。楼市稳住了，就可以释放财富效应，也可以 更好地提振消费。此外，还需关注中低收入群体，强化社会保障。 ...

中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 宏观策略评论 2025 年 6 月 3 日 证券分析师：徐高 (8610)66229055 gao.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519050002 经济形势跟踪： 关税战压力稍缓，国内房价 明显回调 （风险提示：宏观经济走势具有不确定性，宏观政策可能超预期变化。） 证券分析师：李晨希 chenxi.li@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525010002 在 2025 年 5 月下半月，我国经济出现了一些值得关注的边际变化。 第一，在 5 月 12 日中美于日内瓦达成关税临时协议后，我国出口状况有 所改善，但对美出口仍处于持续回调的态势中。尽管临时协定在短期内 带来一定改善，我国出口形势仍面临不确定性。关税摩擦的反复，以及 "抢出口"效应的逐步减弱，仍对未来出口走势构成一定压力。 第二，反映国内经济活动的指标在 5 月下半月整体维持稳定。高炉开工 率、磨机运转率、高速公路货车流量等指标与上半月基本持平，波动有 限。值得关注的是，轮胎开工率回升至 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间：2025年06月03日08时25分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读： 目前政策面利多基本兑现，中美贸易紧张局势缓解也体现在价格中 。房地产方面，核心城市有所企稳，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 ，新开 工面积仍大幅回落，竣工面积、施工面积同比也依然维持较大的跌幅 。上周我的钢铁公布的数据显示，产量有所回落，厂库下降，社库继续回落， 总库存下降，表观需求环比微幅上升，数据对期价有所提振。从需求的季节性规律看，表观需求高峰期已过，随着雨季和高温天气的到来，需求将 进一步走弱。限产传闻对市场提振作用有限。钢企普遍认为，行业确实需要减产，但近期钢企亏损状况有所改善，企业主动减产的动力偏弱。整体 来看，目前市场逐渐由强现实向弱现实转变 ，弱预期可能还没有发生实质性的改变 。从技术上看，价格跌破了近期的震荡区间，形成向下的有效突 破，后市有望延续下行趋势，短线的反弹不影响趋势的延续。 操作建议： 空单持有 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the real estate market is gradually stabilizing, supported by policies aimed at boosting housing demand and improving purchasing power. This is expected to enhance the overall market sentiment and reduce credit risks for companies in the construction materials sector [5][12] - Short-term pressures for growth have led to renewed emphasis on stabilizing the real estate sector, while medium to long-term monetary and fiscal policy adjustments are anticipated to further support the market [12] - The report highlights that the construction materials sector has limited room for further deterioration compared to the end of 2022, with expectations for both fundamental recovery and valuation improvement [5] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - As of Q1 2025, the balance of real estate loans in RMB reached 53.54 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 0.04%. Personal housing loans decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, but the growth rate improved by 0.5 percentage points compared to the end of the previous year [12] - Various local governments have introduced measures to stimulate housing consumption and support the real estate market, including tax adjustments and incentives for home purchases [12] 2. Weekly High-Frequency Data - The average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement nationwide is 375 RMB/ton, down 0.6% week-on-week and down 5.7% year-on-year [3][13] - The factory price of glass (5.00mm) is 1230 RMB/ton, down 0.3% week-on-week and down 25.9% year-on-year [3][22] 3. Sector Review - The construction materials index increased by 0.18% this week, while the overall market indices saw slight declines [4][54] - Among sub-sectors, other building materials and cement products showed positive performance, while cement manufacturing and glass manufacturing experienced slight declines [4][54] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: high-quality companies benefiting from inventory upgrades, undervalued stocks with long-term potential, and leading cyclical building material companies showing signs of bottoming out [5]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of A-share listed companies in 2024 shows a slight decline in revenue and profit, with significant industry performance divergence, particularly in the real estate sector which remains under pressure [1][2][5]. Industry Performance Summary - A total of 5402 listed companies reported a revenue of 71.92 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.23%, and a net profit of 5.21 trillion yuan, down 2.98% [2][5]. - The information technology sector led with an 11% revenue growth, while the real estate sector experienced the largest decline at -21% [1][5][6]. - Among the listed companies, 4029 achieved profitability, representing 75% of the total, with 2567 companies showing a year-on-year profit increase [2][5]. Real Estate Sector Analysis - The real estate sector's typical listed companies saw a revenue drop of 17% in 2024, with a gross profit margin of 10%, down 2 percentage points from the previous year [10][13]. - The sales area of new residential properties fell by 12.9%, and sales revenue decreased by 17.1%, indicating ongoing market challenges [9]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to high land costs, increased sales pressure, and the need for price reductions to stimulate sales [14][17]. Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to stabilize in 2025 after three years of adjustment, with companies focusing on strategic transformations to enhance profitability [1][19]. - Companies are shifting their focus towards operational efficiency, project selection, and product quality to navigate through the current downturn [17][19]. - Several firms are exploring new growth avenues, such as property management and diversified business models, to ensure sustainable development [18][19].

5 月百强销售和基本面解读 20250531 摘要 2025 年 5 月重点城市新增供应量同比、环比均显著下降，为近七年同 期最低水平，总供应量不足 700 万平方米，同比下降 32%，环比下降 38%，表明市场供应受抑制，土地成交持续下滑。 企业端销售业绩分化明显，绿城中国、中海、金茂等头部企业受益于核 心区域优质地块的货量供应，销售业绩表现突出，通过滚雪球效应不断 扩大优势。 一线城市新房成交以上海和广州为首，5 月成交规模均超 50 万方，保持 同环比正增长；二手房市场上海和北京单月成交规模均超过 120 万平方 米，以刚需、刚改需求驱动。 二三线城市新房市场整体表现不佳，成交面积环比微降 3%，同比下降 13%。热点二线城市如成都、武汉、天津、西安和杭州等地前五月累计 同比增幅超过 10%，但 5 月份环比仍有小幅回调。 5 月新房市场平均开盘去化率为 41%，环比增长 1 个百分点，同比增长 15 个百分点，但城市间分化明显，厦门、成都和重庆等城市去化率超过 60%，主要得益于供应影响和网红盘入市。 Q&A 2025 年 5 月百强房企的销售情况如何？ 根据克而瑞发布的数据，2025 年 5 月百强 ...