研究员：赵丽/谷馨瑜/孙梦琪/蔡涵 基于快于预期的成本费用端优化，我们上调2025/26 年经调整净利润6%/9%至19.3/22.0 亿元，并基于 SOTP 估值上调未来12 个月目标价至240 港元（原184 港元），其中1）核心业务贡献223 港元，基于优 质内容及版权公司平均20 倍年市盈率，以及2025-26 年平均经调整净利润20.1 亿元，2）现金贡献17港 元，基于30%折价。网易云音乐付费墙及ARPPU 仍有较大运营空间，看好长期会员收入增长潜力，维 持买入。 1 季度毛利率优化超预期。2025 年1 季度网易云音乐公布收入18.6 亿元（人民币，下同），同比降 8%，较2024 年下半年2%的降幅扩大，主要因社交娱乐收入下降。毛利率36.7%，同比提升3.7 个百分 点，较2024 年下半年提升4.4 个百分点，好于我们/市场预期，受益于会员订阅收入增长，数专业务收 入增加，及直播分成优化。 机构：交银国际 2025 年展望：1）在线音乐：我们看好会员订阅延续稳健增势，预计在线音乐收入同比增15%，其中会 员订阅收入或增16%，仍受会员规模扩张拉动，预计ARPPU 短期基本持稳，高端会员增 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs hosted the Alternative Revenue Forum, highlighting Target's strategic positioning and performance in the current retail environment, focusing on diversified revenue channels and inventory management for sustainable growth [1] Group 1: Revenue Diversification - Target's Roundel business has become a significant revenue contributor, accounting for 10% of total revenue with expectations for continued growth due to expansion in the retail network and synergy with Target Plus [1] - Target Plus achieved a gross merchandise volume (GMV) of $1 billion last year, with plans to increase GMV to $5 billion over the next five years through a differentiated market strategy [2] Group 2: Customer Engagement and Digital Growth - Target Circle 360, a loyalty program, offers same-day delivery for orders over $35, with plans to enhance customer benefits by eliminating price markups on Shipt market items [3] - The digital business is profitable and shows strong growth potential, with various fulfillment options and an efficient order processing system leveraging store resources [3] Group 3: Inventory Management and Financial Performance - Target is carefully managing inventory to avoid over-purchasing, with plans to shift more home and hardline products to the marketplace to free up warehouse space [4] - Financially, Target's market capitalization is $42.3 billion, with fluctuating revenues projected to grow from $106.57 billion in Q1 2025 to $112.19 billion in Q1 2026 [5]

文章指出，稳步增加居民收入是激活消费引擎、拉动经济增长的关键，也是保障人民共享发展成果、实 现共同富裕的重要基础。稳步增加居民收入，首先需稳就业。稳步增加居民收入，还要拓宽增收渠道， 特别是增加财产性收入。要稳定资本市场，推动"长钱长投"，提升资本市场回报率。推动房地产市场平 稳健康发展也是关键。房地产是居民资产中最大的一部分。楼市稳住了，就可以释放财富效应，也可以 更好地提振消费。此外，还需关注中低收入群体，强化社会保障。 ...

习近平总书记近期在主持召开部分省区市"十五五"时期经济社会发展座谈会时强调，谋划"十五五"时期 经济社会发展，要深入研究优化区域布局、促进区域协调发展和巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果、推进乡村全面 振兴和城乡融合发展、加快农业农村现代化等方面的有效措施，稳步增加城乡群众收入。今年3月，中 办、国办印发《提振消费专项行动方案》，也明确提出"城乡居民增收促进行动"。 近年来，我国居民收入增长已与经济增长基本同步。2024年，我国国内生产总值同比增长5%，全国居 民人均可支配收入41314元，实际增长5.1%；今年一季度，全国居民人均可支配收入12179元，实际增 长5.6%。然而，居民收入在国民收入分配中比例偏低，居民收入预期不稳，不仅影响群众切身利益， 也成为制约消费增长的重要因素。 稳步增加居民收入是激活消费引擎、拉动经济增长的关键，也是保障人民共享发展成果、实现共同富裕 的重要基础。 稳步增加居民收入，首先需稳就业。一方面，努力增加就业岗位，扩大就业机会。加大对中小企业政策 扶持，增强经营主体就业吸纳力，加快培育发展一批知识密集型、技术密集型战略性新兴产业，创造更 多新就业形态岗位，打造新的就业增长点，稳定收入来源。 ...

Core Insights - SpaceX is projected to achieve a revenue of $15.5 billion in 2023 [1] Company Summary - The revenue forecast for SpaceX indicates significant growth and reflects the company's strong position in the aerospace industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is facing significant "involution" competition, particularly in deposit and loan businesses, prompting calls for innovation and differentiation to avoid price wars and enhance profitability [1][2][4]. Group 1: Involution in Banking - The primary source of profit for banks is the interest margin between deposits and loans, with current involution concentrated in these areas [2]. - The People's Bank of China has noted a rapid decline in loan rates while deposit rates remain stagnant, leading to a significant deviation from policy interest rates [2]. - Factors contributing to deposit involution include minimal product differentiation among banks and external pressures from low-interest environments [2][3]. Group 2: Urgency of Addressing Involution - The urgency to combat involution is underscored by the current net interest margin of 1.43%, the lowest in nearly 20 years, which compresses profitability and increases financial risks [4][5]. - Over-competition in the industry is leading to higher funding costs and potential regulatory challenges, affecting the effectiveness of monetary policy [5]. Group 3: Strategies for Overcoming Involution - Banks are encouraged to adhere to regulatory guidelines while innovating service models and expanding deposit and loan businesses [6][7]. - Some banks have publicly committed to avoiding price wars, emphasizing value-driven competition instead [6][7]. - Expanding incremental business through product innovation and digital transformation is seen as a crucial strategy to mitigate the effects of involution [8][9]. Group 4: Enhancing Non-Interest Income - A significant reason for the current involution is the reliance on a narrow revenue structure; thus, increasing non-interest income is vital for resilience [12]. - Wealth management and financial market activities are identified as key areas for growth, with many banks planning to enhance their non-interest income streams [12][14]. - The shift in consumer wealth towards financial assets presents an opportunity for banks to develop wealth management services, leveraging their existing customer base [12][13]. Group 5: Regulatory Support and Market Dynamics - Regulatory bodies are urged to encourage banks to innovate and differentiate their services, fostering a healthier competitive environment [11]. - The banking sector's transformation is viewed as a structural reform aimed at enhancing service supply and creating customer value, which is essential for navigating economic cycles [15].

纽约联储：2025年运营净收入可能为负。 ...

Core Insights - The New York Federal Reserve projects that net income is expected to return to positive territory by 2026 [1] Group 1 - The New York Federal Reserve anticipates a recovery in net income, indicating a potential improvement in financial health [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Brazilian President Lula expresses confidence that Congress will pass reforms related to income and trade taxes [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of tax reform in Brazil's economic strategy, indicating potential impacts on revenue generation and trade dynamics [1] - It suggests that successful passage of these reforms could lead to improved fiscal health for the country [1] - The article reflects on the political landscape, noting the challenges and support within Congress regarding the proposed reforms [1]

Core Insights - British American Tobacco (BAT) expects full year revenue growth of 1% to 2% and adjusted profit from operations growth of 1.5% to 2.5% for 2025, slightly ahead of previous guidance [4]. Group 1 - The company anticipates a return to revenue and profit growth in the U.S. for the first half of 2025 [4].