Core Points - Eurozone inflation in May was weaker than expected, leading to a slight increase in expectations for an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank in July [1] - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point cut on Thursday, with a 31% probability for further cuts in July, up from 28% previously [1] - The overall inflation rate in the Eurozone dropped from 2.2% in April to 1.9% in May, exceeding expectations [1]

欧元区5月调和CPI环比初值 0%，预期 0%，前值 0.6%。 ...

欧元兑美元短线小幅走低，现报1.1408。 ...

Core Viewpoint - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that the euro could become a viable alternative to the US dollar if governments strengthen the financial and security architecture of the G20, which would bring significant benefits to the group [1][2] Group 1: Euro's Potential as an Alternative Currency - Lagarde emphasized that the euro's influence will not be automatic; it must be earned through deeper and more liquid capital markets, a stronger legal foundation, and a commitment to open trade [1] - The dollar's share of international reserves has been declining, currently at 58%, the lowest in decades, while the euro stands at 20% [1] Group 2: Necessary Conditions for Euro's Growth - To enhance the euro's role, Europe must also bolster its military strength to provide geopolitical assurances to investors, particularly official investors [2] - The euro should become the preferred currency for international trade invoicing, achievable through new trade agreements, improved cross-border payments, and liquidity agreements with the European Central Bank [2] - Reforming the domestic economy is urgent, as the eurozone's capital markets remain fragmented and inefficient, lacking truly liquid and widely available safe assets [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the passage of the GENIUS Act, which establishes a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins in the U.S., potentially reshaping the crypto asset market and impacting global financial systems [1][2]. - Stablecoins are defined as cryptocurrencies that are pegged to stable assets or currencies, providing a bridge between the crypto market and traditional finance, with applications in asset trading, cross-border payments, and decentralized finance (DeFi) [1][2]. - The GENIUS Act aims to enhance anti-money laundering and consumer protection measures, ensuring financial stability and the legality of transactions, thereby reinforcing the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the global financial landscape [1][2]. Group 2 - The U.S. government's proactive approach to stablecoins is driven by the need to alleviate debt burdens and manage rising long-term treasury yields, which indicate higher demands for returns and increased borrowing costs [2]. - The GENIUS Act positions stablecoins as automatic vending machines for U.S. treasuries, creating a significant demand for U.S. debt, which could help manage the country's debt burden and borrowing costs [2]. - The emergence of stablecoins is expected to revolutionize financial asset trading, pricing, transaction modes, and time constraints, posing substantial impacts on financial markets and institutions, as well as introducing new regulatory challenges [3].

Group 1 - The euro is currently trading around 1.1426 against the US dollar, showing a decline of 0.12% from the previous close of 1.1439 [1] - This week is significant for euro traders due to the release of two high-impact financial data points: the preliminary harmonized consumer price index (HICP) for May and the revised GDP for the first quarter [2] - A slowdown in the HICP data could weaken the euro, indicating reduced inflationary pressure in the eurozone, which may increase the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) [2] Group 2 - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut from the ECB, but actual actions may not sufficiently weaken the euro, as another cut is expected by year-end [2] - Political instability within Europe, particularly related to Ukraine and Palestine, continues to be a concern for euro traders [2] - Any progress in ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine could positively impact the euro, while easing trade tensions between the EU and the US may also support the euro [2] Group 3 - The initial support level for the euro against the dollar is at the 55-day moving average of 1.1175, with further support levels at the May low of 1.1064 and the psychological level of 1.1000 [2] - If these levels are breached, the euro may test the critical 200-day moving average support at 1.0815 [2] - Momentum indicators show divergence, with the average directional index (ADX) around 20 indicating weakening trend strength, while the relative strength index (RSI) breaking above 60 suggests increasing bullish momentum [2]

Core Viewpoint - The euro's performance is likely to continue being dominated by the US dollar's movements [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank on June 5 [1] - The US PCE data is expected to be the main catalyst for the euro today, potentially keeping it within the short-term range of 1.1300 to 1.1400 USD [1]

道明证券：欧美在短期内将进一步回调 金十数据5月30日讯，道明证券的策略师在一份报告中表示，欧元兑美元在短期内将进一步回调。他们 称，利率差异正朝着有利于美元的方向发展，这增加了为防范货币下跌而进行保护的成本。近期经济数 据也转向对美元有利，而且"几乎没有证据表明资产配置会从美国转移出去"。他们还表示，这些因素增 加了未来几周欧元下跌的风险，特别是如果市场再次关注利率差异的话。道明证券预计，欧元兑美元汇 率将从当前的1.1347跌至第二季度的1.11。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bulgaria is on track to join the Eurozone, potentially adopting the euro as early as January 1, 2026, following a report from the European Commission and the European Central Bank [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Implications - Bulgaria's accession to the Eurozone is expected to enhance trade relations with other EU countries, reduce transaction costs, and increase its influence within the EU [1]. - Currently, Bulgaria's currency, the lev, is pegged to the euro, but it lacks a voice in the European Central Bank's monetary policy as it is not yet a member [1]. - The country's GDP accounts for less than 1% of the EU total, which raises concerns about its limited influence in the European Central Bank's decision-making [2]. Group 2: Public Sentiment and Concerns - There are public concerns regarding potential price increases following the adoption of the euro, which could negatively impact the living standards of poorer families in rural areas [2]. - Some citizens remain skeptical about joining the Eurozone, with calls for a national referendum on the issue being dismissed as unconstitutional [2]. - Historical precedents from other countries that joined the Eurozone indicate that lower-priced countries may experience inflation as their prices align with higher Eurozone averages [2]. Group 3: Eurozone Expansion Context - Since its establishment in 1999, the Eurozone has been expanding eastward, with Croatia being the most recent member to adopt the euro on January 1, 2023 [2]. - Currently, seven EU member states, including Bulgaria, are not part of the Eurozone [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone economy is projected to grow by 0.9% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, reflecting slight adjustments from previous forecasts of 0.8% and 1.2% respectively in April [1] Economic Growth Projections - The growth forecast for 2025 has been revised up to 0.9% from 0.8% [1] - The growth forecast for 2026 has been adjusted down to 1.1% from 1.2% [1]