日本超长期国债收益率为何再起？ 报告要点： 专题报告 2025-07-10 7 月上旬，日本超长期国债收益率再起。7 月 8 日，日本 30 年期国债收益率一度上升 12.5 个 基点，达到 3.09%的阶段性高位；40 年期国债收益率亦攀升至 3.36%。为何日债收益率显著上 行？首先，本轮收益率上行的核心在于市场对日本财政前景的重新评估，即将于 7 月 20 日举 行的日本参议院选举成为市场关注焦点。当前执政联盟面临多数席位流失的风险，在野党的政 策主张则更偏向于财政扩张。其次，日本长债收益率的上行还是货币政策变化、通胀上升、财 政和人口结构失衡及外部冲击共同作用的结果。从长期视角看，日本人口老龄化趋势不断深化， 进一步限制财政空间与长期投资需求，对长期国债的稳定配置需求造成不利影响。日本正面临 结构性转型的窗口期，财政与债务结构面临调整，而国际环境的复杂性又可能削弱其缓冲能力， 未来仍面临波动上行风险。后续应主要关注美日关税谈判进展、超长债拍卖情况以及参议院选 举结果。若选举结果削弱执政联盟地位，市场或将重新定价对财政扩张的预期，从而对日本长 期国债收益率构成上行压力。 蒋文斌 国债研究员 从业资格号： ...

以"数"促收，强化财政数据化收入征管 中国发展网讯 记者郭建军报道 数字财政建设是适应数字经济、数字社会发展的必然选择，也是实现财 政高质量发展的关键路径。近年来，阳泉市财政局深入贯彻落实党中央关于数字中国建设的战略部署， 紧紧围绕市委市政府的决策，以数据为生产要素、以技术为驱动引擎、以制度为保障基础，逐步构建起 覆盖财政管理全链条的智慧化解决方案，助力财政管理从"经验决策"向"数据决策"深度转型。 以"数"筑基，构建财政数据化转型平台 积极参与智慧城市建设、政务服务平台优化等数字政府建设项目，推动数据共享，为财政数据的广泛应 用和价值挖掘创造良好条件。通过将财政业务纳入统一平台，确保数据可追溯，为精准科学编制预算提 供数据支撑；通过将部门所有收入纳入预算管理，全面提升财政统筹能力；通过强化部门决算等各类平 台数据与绩效管理数据共享、结果共用，实现绩效评价全流程覆盖，提升财政资金使用效益。以内生数 据治理与外部数据赋能为核心，构建"数字大脑+数字引擎"协同运作体系。充分运用先进信息技术手 段，自上而下地对财政业务流程进行梳理融合与重塑再造，完成财政信息化建设的高维提升，实现对财 政资金的全生命周期管理和资金运 ...

核心政策分析 特朗普经济政策的影响与前景 文/UNFX宏观 唐纳德·特朗普总统在其第二任期伊始便以惊人的速度推进其标志性的经济议程，这不仅是对其竞选承诺的兑现，更是一场对美国经济未来走向 的 高风险实验。核心政策—— 大规模减税与 广泛征收关税——已迅速落地，其潜在影响正成为各界关注和争论的焦点。 大规模减税 然而，经济学界的普遍共识是，关税本质上是对国内消费者征税。进口成本的上升将不可避免地转嫁到终端价格上，加剧通胀压力，侵蚀消费者购买力。耶 鲁大学的估计显示，这可能导致家庭收入实际下降。 此外，关税战扰乱全球供应链，损害依赖进口零部件或出口市场的国内企业，并可能引发贸易伙伴的报复，进一步损害美国经济利益。 新签署的减税法案，在很大程度上延续并扩大了第一任期的税收优惠，特别是针对企业和高收入群体。支持者认为这将刺激投资和经济增长，但其融资方式 ——大幅削减社会保障网——以及预计将增加的逾3万亿美元国债，引发了严重的财政担忧。 主流经济学家普遍警告，在已经高企的债务基础上进一步扩大赤字，将推高借贷成本，挤压私人投资空间，并可能导致长期经济增长放缓。将债务占GDP 比重推至二战后新高，不仅是数字上的变化，更是对 ...

从政策层面来看，就上半年而言，最主要的一件事情是央行在5月7日贸易冲突之后做了一次双降，降准 50个BP，降息10个BP，应该说降准的幅度是足够的，但是降息的幅度还是偏小一些，这也是我们后面 讨论货币政策的主线，整体货币政策的空间是越来越小的，所以货币政策没办法大开大合。在财政政策 方面，上半年的主线是靠前发力的，今年截至年中，政府债发行已经接近8万亿，去年大概是四五万 亿，同比是大幅增多的。如果只看用作项目的新增专项债，其实今年的进度是中性水平，不快不慢，因 为上半年主要还是发行了去年年底提到的2万亿特别国债，用于化解隐性债务。今年上半年主要是做化 债，下半年用于做项目的专项债应该也会加快发行的速度，往年都是在三季度之前集中发完。 对于未来的展望，我们还是预期会有降准和降息，预计降息可能是看20个BP，降准大概看50个BP，主 要的原因是经济层面三季度面临多重周期的下行，需要稳增长的政策。另外，要配合财政增发政府债 券，货币政策要给到一些配额。 首先是对于现在的货币政策来说，金融稳定越来越重要，到今年一季度末的时候，商业银行加权的净息 差已经收窄到了1.43%，净息差的稳定线或者说合意水平是1.8%，现在整 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3500 points before retreating, indicating a generally stable market trend [1] - The VIX index calculated from the SSE 50 and CSI 300 ETF options has not shown a significant upward spike, suggesting a lower risk of sharp market fluctuations in the future [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive at 0.10% year-on-year, with a core CPI of 0.70%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.10% month-on-month [3] - The rise in CPI is attributed to seasonal weather effects, with vegetable prices increasing and a notable recovery in international oil prices impacting domestic energy prices [3] - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with beef prices rising by 2.7% after 28 months of decline, while pork prices fell by 8.5% [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - Due to ongoing pressures on CPI and PPI from consumer confidence and international trade risks, there is potential for a 10 basis point interest rate cut by the central bank in Q4, lowering the 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.3% [4] - This could create more space in the bond market, with investors advised to focus on government bond ETFs [4] Group 4: International Economic Developments - The recent signing of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S. has expanded the deficit, with implications for various sectors, including traditional energy, manufacturing, and real estate, which may benefit from tax advantages [4] - The impact on A-shares remains unclear, but potential fiscal expansion in the U.S. could enhance demand for Chinese exports, particularly capital goods and equipment [4]

Group 1: Internet Lending Industry - The internet lending industry is undergoing a significant "reshuffle" as compliance pressures increase, leading to a concentration of business among top lending platforms while smaller platforms exit the market [1] - Banks and financial institutions are tightening their risk appetite for internet lending, which has resulted in a reduction of high-interest practices previously employed by smaller platforms [1] - The new regulations have effectively closed loopholes that allowed for hidden price increases, putting pressure on the sustainability of some smaller lending platforms' business models [1] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3500 points for the first time this year, driven by significant gains in large-cap stocks such as Ningde Times and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical [2] - The rise in the index is attributed to ample liquidity in the market, although there are concerns about potential volatility and factors that may disrupt a sustained upward trend [2] Group 3: Consumer Electronics Industry - The consumer electronics sector is experiencing a surge in new product releases, particularly AI glasses, with an increase in shipment volumes and a rise in domestic production rates [3] - The consumer electronics industry index has seen a 6.67% increase over a 13-day trading period, indicating strong market performance [3] - Industry experts anticipate accelerated upgrades and investment opportunities in the consumer electronics sector in the second half of the year [3] Group 4: Fiscal Policy - The proactive fiscal policy has been implemented to stabilize growth, with measures including the issuance of long-term special bonds and local government bonds to boost consumption and investment [4] - Experts predict that fiscal policies will continue to be aggressive in the second half of the year, with potential increases in special bond issuance and the introduction of new financial tools [4] Group 5: Private Equity Funds - Over 2000 private equity funds reached new net asset value highs in June, reflecting a strong market performance [5] - More than 90% of large private equity firms reported positive returns in the first half of the year, with quantitative funds achieving a 100% positive return rate [5] - The private equity fundraising market has shown signs of recovery, with significant capital inflows expected to support further upward trends in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5] Group 6: Fund Management - Several fund companies have begun disclosing their second-quarter reports, indicating a significant increase in the scale of actively managed equity funds and strong growth in high-performing bond funds [6] Group 7: Financial Institutions - A total of 84 village banks have been approved for dissolution in 2025, marking a significant increase compared to previous years [8] - The majority of these dissolutions are due to mergers with local commercial banks, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the financial sector [8] Group 8: Market Trends - The "anti-involution" trend is gaining momentum across various industries, with sectors like solar energy, cement, and steel experiencing increased calls for reduced competition [9] - The stock market has responded positively, with significant gains in the solar sector and other related industries, suggesting a potential for improved profitability driven by policy support [9] Group 9: Electricity Market - The southern region's electricity market has initiated trial runs for continuous settlement, signaling the arrival of the "electricity e-commerce era" [10] - The establishment of a national unified electricity market is nearing completion, focusing on market-driven pricing and efficient resource allocation [10] Group 10: Fund Custody - The number of commercial banks with fund custody qualifications has increased to 37, with the latest addition being Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [11] Group 11: Economic Indicators - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive year-on-year, influenced by rising industrial consumer goods prices and a narrowing decline in vegetable prices [12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) continues to face downward pressure, reflecting ongoing challenges in the industrial sector [12] Group 12: Shareholder Engagement - Companies are increasingly adopting diverse methods to reward shareholders, moving beyond traditional dividends and buybacks to include more interactive and experiential rewards [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Gansu Province has achieved stable growth in fiscal revenue and expenditure in the first half of the year, with both surpassing the halfway mark of their respective annual targets [1][2] - Gansu Province's general public budget revenue reached 57.38 billion yuan, completing 52.8% of the annual budget and showing a growth of 4.1% [1] - The general public budget expenditure amounted to 257.17 billion yuan, achieving 52.2% of the expected annual expenditure, with a growth rate of 5.5% [1] Group 2 - Fiscal revenue exceeded expectations due to proactive measures taken by various fiscal departments, including enhanced revenue monitoring and inter-departmental collaboration [1] - The acceleration of fiscal expenditure growth is attributed to efforts in securing central support and optimizing the issuance of government bonds, while also reducing administrative costs [2] - In the first half of the year, spending on 11 categories of livelihood-related expenditures reached 208.15 billion yuan, growing by 6.5% and accounting for 80.9% of total fiscal expenditure [2]

Group 1: Company Fundamentals - The company's fundamentals are crucial, with financial statements reflecting operational performance, such as revenue indicating business results and net profit showcasing profitability [1] - Analyzing the balance sheet helps assess the asset and liability structure, evaluating the company's debt repayment ability [1] - The quality of the management team is vital, as effective leaders with market insight and decision-making skills can drive long-term strategic planning and resource allocation [1] - A sound governance structure ensures robust internal controls and risk management, protecting shareholder interests and maintaining operational stability [1] Group 2: Industry Development Trends - Industry development trends significantly impact stock investment, with emerging sectors like renewable energy and artificial intelligence attracting substantial capital [2] - Mature or declining industries face challenges such as market saturation and intense competition, limiting growth potential [2] - Understanding the competitive landscape, including market share and competitive advantages, is essential for assessing a company's position and growth prospects within its industry [2] Group 3: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment is a critical external factor affecting stock investment, with economic cycles directly influencing industry and company performance [3] - During economic expansion, strong consumer demand typically leads to increased corporate profits and rising stock markets, while economic downturns result in lower consumer spending and poor stock performance [3] - Monetary and fiscal policies play significant roles, with loose monetary policy enhancing market liquidity and fiscal measures stimulating economic growth, thereby impacting stock prices [3] - Factors like exchange rates and inflation also indirectly affect stock investments, influencing profits for export-oriented companies and altering asset allocation preferences [3] Group 4: Risk Control - Risk control is a continuous focus in stock investment, as market risks are inherent and can lead to significant price volatility [4] - Companies face various risks, including operational risks that can affect profitability and market reputation [4] - Diversification is a strategy to mitigate risk, encouraging investors to build a varied portfolio across different industries and company sizes to balance potential losses [4]

Core Viewpoint - Experts predict that fiscal policy in the second half of the year is expected to accelerate and increase, with a broad fiscal space exceeding 7 trillion yuan available for implementation [1] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The government plans to expedite the implementation of existing policies while also introducing new incremental reserve policies as needed based on changing circumstances [1] - There is potential for continued fiscal efforts, including the issuance of special government bonds, increasing the collection of special bonds, and issuing policy financial instruments [1] Fiscal Space Details - According to Wen Bin, Chief Economist at China Minsheng Bank, the remaining fiscal space includes 4.03 trillion yuan in deficits, 2.24 trillion yuan in special bonds, and 745 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bond quotas, indicating ample resources available [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the strong demand for the $39 billion 10-year U.S. Treasury bond auction, which alleviated market concerns regarding the U.S. fiscal outlook, leading to the first increase in the U.S. Treasury market in five trading days [1] - The auction's awarded yield was 4.362%, slightly lower than the secondary market trading level before the auction deadline, indicating demand exceeded expectations [1] - An additional $22 billion 30-year Treasury bond auction is scheduled for Thursday, suggesting ongoing interest in U.S. government debt [1]