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“反内卷”交易升温,工业品板块普遍上涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 03:21
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests going long on industrial products on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" trading in the industrial product sector is heating up, with prices of some commodities rebounding due to policy expectations. The market is awaiting the July Politburo meeting for potential further pro - growth policies. The US is implementing new tariff policies on multiple countries, and there are signs of inflation trading both overseas and domestically, but it faces challenges [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The June manufacturing PMI rebounded, but the economic stabilization foundation needs to be strengthened. "Anti - involution" policy expectations in industries like photovoltaic, lithium - battery, and others are rising [2] - On July 10, the A - share market rose in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3500 points, hitting a 9 - month high. Real - estate stocks had a涨停潮, and large - financial stocks strengthened [2] - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries starting August 1, and a second batch of tariffs on 8 countries will also take effect on the same day. The US Commerce Secretary plans to talk with China in early August [2][7] - Trump issued an executive order on clean energy and announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, 2025, and investigations in the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors will be completed by the end of the month [2] Macro - inflation - Trump signed the "Great Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which may increase US government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, shifting the US from a "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" phase to a "loose - prone" policy phase [3] - Overseas, the core is the currency - led inflation expectation. The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low. In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has reignited inflation trading, but it faces challenges both overseas and domestically [3] Commodity Sector - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4] - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists. In the energy sector, the short - term geopolitical premium is over, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years [4] - The EIA expects the 2025 Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel. The ninth OPEC International Seminar was held from July 9 - 10 [4] - There are no short - term weather disturbances in the agricultural product sector, so the price fluctuation range is relatively limited [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products on dips [5]
向海图强风电再上新台阶
近日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议强调,推动海洋经济高质量发展,要更加注重创 新驱动,更加注重高效协同,更加注重产业更新,更加注重人海和谐,更加注重合作共赢。 要做强做优做大海洋产业,推动海上风电规范有序建设。 中国新增海上风电装机已连续七年位居全球首位,累计装机量也占据全球总量的"半壁 江山",中国海上风电产业正勇闯"无人区",从规模领先走向引领全球。 有力支撑海洋经济发展 会议指出,推动海洋经济高质量发展,要加强顶层设计,加大政策支持力度,鼓励引导 社会资本积极参与发展海洋经济。作为海洋经济发展的重要"拼图",海上风电产业也正步入 高质量发展期。 据中国可再生能源学会风能专业委员会统计数据,截至2024年底,我国海上风电累计并 网容量达到41.27吉瓦,占到中国风电累计并网容量的7.9%,在全球占比达到一半左右,广 东、江苏、山东等沿海省份海上风电装机规模尤为亮眼。 "在加快实现'双碳'目标的背景下,发展海上风电不仅具有巨大的资源潜力,也在区域能 源转型中发挥着不可替代的作用。"绿色创新发展研究院能源转型项目主任、高级分析师李 鑫迪告诉《中国能源报》记者,"海上风电的发展也对促进经济发展发挥重要作用。对沿 ...
海南在海洋文化传播中具有独特优势
Hai Nan Ri Bao· 2025-07-11 02:05
Core Viewpoint - Hainan possesses unique advantages in marine cultural dissemination due to its rich maritime cultural resources and geographical location [2][3] Group 1: Marine Cultural Resources - Hainan is surrounded by the sea, providing a strong attraction to the ocean, which can be leveraged for marine education [2] - The China (Hainan) South China Sea Museum houses a wealth of maritime artifacts, enhancing public engagement with maritime culture [2] - Facilities such as lighthouses, beaches, shells, and marine life serve as connections between youth and the ocean, allowing for direct experiences of its natural and cultural values [2] Group 2: Importance of Marine Education - The primary goal of marine education activities is to raise public awareness of the strategic importance of the ocean to China [2] - There is a need for a large number of professionals to support the construction of a marine community and promote high-quality development of the marine economy [2] - Marine education is crucial for attracting and nurturing talent in the maritime field [2][3] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Recommendations - The legacy of Zheng He’s voyages, which passed through Hainan, serves as a means to promote maritime knowledge and the spirit of teamwork [3] - Future recommendations include establishing a more systematic marine education framework based on Hainan's marine resources to support the development of marine industries [3]
女校长诈骗数千万为游戏充值,国产游戏缘何“氪金”不止?
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-11 01:35
据报道称,此案的涉案人童敏,生前曾任泸州某知名民办学校校长。在担任校长期间,童敏以投资建设幼儿园、培训学校等为由,诈骗亲朋好友5000余万 元,其中超3000万元用于充值网易旗下游戏《大唐无双》。 由于童敏已于2021年5月31日跳江自杀,泸州江阳警方依法撤销刑事案件。29名被害人遂转向民事诉讼,起诉童敏财产继承人即童某荣(童敏父亲)、广 州网易计算机系统有限公司以及财付通支付系统有限公司,要求网易返还3100余万元的充值款、财付通返还220余万元的支付款项,并由童某荣通过继承 的方式将上述款项返还给原告。2024年10月12日,泸州市江阳区人民法院一审判决驳回原告李某学等29人的诉讼请求。 二审庭审中,29名原告上诉人撤回对财付通支付科技有限公司的一审起诉和上诉,主要诉请广州网易公司返还游戏充值款。二审法庭要求上诉人、被上诉 人在一周内提供新的调解方案,否则将依法宣判。 近日,备受关注的"女校长诈骗数千万充值游戏"一案,在四川泸州市中级人民法院二审开庭。 首先,最传统的游戏收费模式无疑是"买断制",即一次付费永久畅玩,可以追溯到上世纪的游戏机产业,载体为卡带或是光碟。随着互联网的发展,数字 下载版开始流行, ...
广州市举行2025年“6·30”助力乡村振兴活动
Guang Zhou Ri Bao· 2025-07-11 01:34
活动现场宣读了2024年度广州市"6·30"助力乡村振兴活动"金穗杯"认定结果,为获奖的142个单位和个 人颁发奖杯,并开展爱心企业、爱心人士举牌认捐活动。 郭永航代表市委、市人大常委会、市政府、市政协向爱心企业和爱心人士表示感谢。他说,"6·30"活动 开展15年来,大家热心公益、慷慨捐助,用心用情参与驻镇帮镇扶村和"千企帮千镇、万企兴万村"行 动,为推进乡村全面振兴和"百千万工程"作出了重要贡献,充分彰显了广州企业家的家国情怀、赤子之 心、社会责任。今年是"十四五"规划收官、"十五五"规划谋划之年,也是实现"百千万工程"三年初见成 效的重要节点,广州紧紧围绕实现习近平总书记、党中央赋予的使命任务,认真落实省委"1310"具体部 署,锚定"排头兵、领头羊、火车头"标高追求,坚定扛起经济大市挑大梁政治责任,全力以赴拼经济、 保安全,办全运、提品质,扎实推进高质量发展、现代化建设,加快实现老城市新活力、"四个出新出 彩"。希望大家坚定不移紧跟总书记、奋进新征程,发挥技术、人才、资金、服务等优势,积极参与粤 港澳大湾区建设、"百千万工程"、"12218"现代化产业体系建设等重点工作,在助推广州高质量发展中 实现自 ...
快递:本次反内卷有何不同?
2025-07-11 01:05
Summary of the Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is experiencing a price competition relief in 2025, with a projected price drop of approximately 7% in the first half of the year, expected to narrow to 6% in the second half, particularly in regions like Yiwu and Chaoshan [1][13] - The industry is projected to handle over 205 billion parcels in 2025, with a growth rate of about 17.2% [2][13] Core Points and Arguments - **Government Initiatives**: The government is actively promoting measures to combat internal competition (反内卷), including the trial of number protection services by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to reduce data monopolies by e-commerce platforms [3][11] - **Digital Management**: Express companies are encouraged to optimize delivery costs through digital management and to stabilize their workforce while avoiding drastic price fluctuations [1][9] - **Focus on Service Quality**: The core of combating internal competition lies in breaking the data monopoly of e-commerce platforms, enhancing service quality through data circulation, and leveraging policy guidance [1][10] - **High-Quality Development**: Companies should delay reducing delivery fees to ensure the earnings of franchisees and couriers, while exploring international markets and factory logistics [9][12] - **Technological Advancements**: The use of unmanned vehicles and smart delivery stations is emphasized to reduce costs and improve efficiency [17][19] Important but Overlooked Content - **Historical Context**: Previous measures, such as the 2021 price increase discussions by the State Post Bureau, have shown that regulatory actions can stabilize prices, and this year’s approach is expected to be more rational and data-driven [6][7] - **Market Dynamics**: The express delivery market is shifting towards enhancing service quality and exploring new markets rather than engaging in fierce price wars [15][31] - **Future Projections**: The industry is expected to see a growth rate of 8% to 10% by 2026, indicating a balance between supply and demand, which will reduce the need for excessive capital expenditure [14][20] - **Challenges in International Expansion**: Companies face challenges such as building cross-border logistics networks and adapting to local markets when expanding internationally [28][30] Conclusion - The express delivery industry is transitioning towards a model focused on high-quality service and technological innovation, moving away from price wars. The government's supportive policies and the industry's adaptation to new technologies are crucial for sustainable growth and efficiency improvements in the coming years [19][32]
新时代我国矿业高质量发展的法治保障 ——新矿产资源法的修法过程和主要制度考虑
Core Viewpoint - The newly revised Mineral Resources Law, effective from July 1, 2025, represents a comprehensive and systematic overhaul of the existing law, providing a strong legal guarantee for the high-quality development of China's mining industry in the new era [1] Legislative Process - The Mineral Resources Law was originally established in 1986 and has undergone partial amendments in 1996 and 2009. The 1986 law laid the foundation for rapid development in the mining sector during the reform and opening-up period by ensuring state ownership and rational development of mineral resources [3] - The need for reform has been recognized due to emerging issues in the mining sector, such as the need for a robust national mineral resource security system and the lack of institutional confirmation for market-oriented reforms. This has led to multiple proposals for amendments from various stakeholders since 2008 [4] Policy Background - The central government has emphasized the importance of mineral resource security and development, with directives from President Xi Jinping to enhance exploration efforts and improve the level of resource development and protection. Various policy documents have been issued to support the revision of the Mineral Resources Law [5] Key Institutional Considerations - The revised law incorporates principles of national security, market-oriented reforms, and ecological sustainability. It expands from 7 chapters and 53 articles to 8 chapters and 80 articles, establishing a legal framework that aligns with the new requirements for high-quality development in the mining sector [8] - A new mineral resource security system is established to enhance risk prevention and ensure national mineral resource safety [9] - The law aims to improve the paid transfer system for mineral resources, defining rights related to exploration and mining, and establishing a competitive bidding process for mining rights [9] - It addresses long-standing issues related to land use in mining, ensuring that land planning considers mining needs and establishing a system for land acquisition for strategic mineral resources [9] Modern Management and Environmental Protection - The law enhances the management of mineral exploration and extraction through various systems, including a streamlined approval process and incentives for responsible mining practices [10] - It emphasizes ecological restoration in mining areas, mandating government oversight and establishing clear responsibilities for ecological rehabilitation [10] Conclusion - The revised Mineral Resources Law institutionalizes the directives from the central government regarding high-quality development in the mining sector, aiming to stabilize expectations and promote long-term benefits for the industry [11]
深化合作同题共答 加力推进郑州都市圈建设
Zheng Zhou Ri Bao· 2025-07-11 01:00
Core Points - The investigation team from Zhengzhou visited Xinxiang and Kaifeng to implement the important speeches of General Secretary Xi Jinping regarding Henan's work and to accelerate the construction of the Zhengzhou metropolitan area [1][2] - The team explored various sites including the Central Plains Agricultural Valley Exhibition Hall and the National Biotechnology Breeding Industry Innovation Center, focusing on planning, technological innovation, cultural tourism integration, and urban ecological construction [1] Group 1 - Accelerating the construction of the Zhengzhou metropolitan area is crucial for ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River basin, as well as for the national strategy to promote the rise of the central region [2] - The construction aims to enhance the quality of life for the people and is seen as a strong engine for high-quality provincial development [2] - The focus is on building a "modern metropolitan area" through improved transportation networks, industrial chains, cultural integration, ecological construction, shared services, and innovation collaboration [2] Group 2 - The leadership emphasized the need for a unified approach and heightened sense of responsibility and urgency in advancing the metropolitan area construction [2] - A comprehensive work promotion mechanism will be established, focusing on problem-solving and goal orientation to enhance collaboration and efficiency in the Zhengzhou metropolitan area [2] - The initiative aims to provide robust support for the modernization of the Central Plains region and contribute to the broader narrative of Chinese-style modernization [2]
四川国资国企系统把学习教育抓紧抓实抓出成效 推动实现国有企业高质量发展
Si Chuan Ri Bao· 2025-07-11 00:48
Core Viewpoint - The Sichuan state-owned assets and enterprises system is actively implementing educational initiatives to enhance compliance with the central government's eight regulations, aiming to drive high-quality development in state-owned enterprises [1][5][6] Group 1: Project Development - The Lushishi Expressway's Luding section has achieved a significant milestone with the main line's 45-kilometer completion, laying a solid foundation for phased traffic opening this year [1] - The Sichuan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) is promoting key projects through a special action initiative to enhance the performance of party members and officials [1] Group 2: Educational Initiatives - The SASAC is integrating educational activities into daily operations, ensuring that both the agency and provincial enterprises are engaged in learning and compliance efforts [2][3] - A structured approach has been established, including a weekly scheduling and monthly summary mechanism to monitor the progress of educational initiatives across 17 provincial enterprises [3] Group 3: Implementation and Effectiveness - The Sichuan Energy Development Group has implemented a three-tiered learning mechanism, conducting eight specialized learning sessions on the central eight regulations, reaching over 510 employees [4] - The Sichuan Development (Holding) Company is focusing on cost control and merger activities through eight special action groups led by company executives [4] Group 4: Community Engagement and Service - The Sichuan state-owned enterprises are actively engaging with the community, exemplified by the Huaxi Group's renovation project benefiting 765 households and the Sichuan Expo Group's services for over 3,000 exhibitors [5] - The provincial tourism investment group is committed to enhancing cultural and tourism services, including the development of the Tianfu International Animation City and the safe operation of the "Panda Special Train" [5] Group 5: Future Directions - The SASAC plans to rigorously continue educational efforts, focusing on the implementation of the provincial committee's directives and ensuring quality in learning, investigation, and rectification processes [6]
人民日报:为海洋经济高质量发展注入澎湃动能
news flash· 2025-07-10 23:44
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of promoting high-quality development of the marine economy in China, aligning with the concept of Chinese-style modernization, as highlighted by General Secretary Xi Jinping [1] Group 1: Marine Economy Development - The development of the marine economy is crucial for achieving a path of strength at sea that is characteristic of China [1] - There is a strong emphasis on the role of technological innovation as a driving force for high-quality development in the marine economy [1] Group 2: Technological Innovation - The article notes that enhancing independent innovation capabilities in marine technology is a priority for building a strong marine nation [1] - Strengthening strategic technological capabilities in marine sectors is essential for fostering leading marine technology enterprises and specialized small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - The article describes recent efforts to inject strong momentum into the high-quality development of the marine economy through advancements in marine technology [1] - A visit to the front lines of marine industry production reveals the dynamic power of the "blue engine" driving this sector [1]