黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周二，螺纹钢期货价格偏弱运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3230 元/吨，较前一 日下跌 10 元/吨，05 合约基差 185（+5）。宏观层面，4 月 22 日，特 朗普表示将会"大幅降低"对中国的高额关税，不过国内强调目前双方 并未开展任何经贸谈判，另外，4 月 25 日政治局会议召开，没有强刺激 信号；产业层面，最近一期数据，螺纹钢表需下滑、产量持稳，去库速度 仍然较快，通常而言，五月中下旬钢材需求会季节性下滑，上半年旺季 窗口期已经不长，上周五市场开始交易钢厂限产，但是目前尚未有正式 文件发布，仍需观察。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉谷 电成本附近，仅仅高于长流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面， 政策端，预计中美关税政策仍会反复博弈，短期国内出台大规模刺激政 策概率较小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但关税影响出口+需求季节性下滑， 市场预期偏弱，关注限产政策是否落地，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源： 同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周一铁矿盘面震荡运行，特朗普放言可能降低对华关税，国际贸易紧张 情绪有所缓和。铁水产量出现超预期增长，引发铁水见顶回落 ...

在当今全球化的舞台上，国际政治和经济力量正经历着一场前所未有的洗牌。这场动荡不仅改变了国家间的关系，也在重塑着世界秩序。让我们来揭开这 场全球博弈中，那些扑朔迷离的幕后真相。 这场关税战与其说是经济博弈，不如说是现代工业革命的催化剂。美国总统特朗普的贸然决定虽意在重塑美国的全球经济地位，但这一系列操作却让美国 陷入了内忧外患。对中国商品加征关税的策略不仅未能如愿以偿，还因忽视盟友并强征关税引发连锁反应，导致政策的失败。 回顾历史，曾几何时，中国依赖制造业起家，以"7亿件衬衫换一架波音"的比喻见证了自己在国际产业链中的低端地位。然而，2025年美国发起的一场关 税战争，却意外成了中国崛起的重要转折点。这场关税风暴，不仅展示了中国在全球经济格局中的强劲反弹力，也揭示了西方百年霸权的脆弱。 先说说造船业。在这个领域，几百年来，谁掌握了造船霸权，谁就主宰了海洋贸易，而如今的故事主角，却是来自东方的中国。根据英国克拉克森研究公 司2024年的数据，中国以承揽全球七成造船订单的成绩，稳稳站在了这个行业的顶端。江南造船厂的繁忙景象颠覆了"中国海军技术落后"的偏见，更是以 超四成的五星红旗船队在全球货运市场中占据了一席之地。 ...

大宗商品研究所 有色金属研发报告 碳酸锂 05 月报 2025 年 4 月 30 日 成本支撑下移 打开锂价下行空间 第一部分 回顾与展望 碳酸锂价格春节前出现 8.1 万高点后已经下跌了 15%，最低跌破 6.8 万，而每次新低后 的反弹高度越来越低。4 月清明节后跳空低开，高点 7.2 万附近，此后震荡走弱，最低 67500 元/吨。 需求端，中美互加关税导致美国本土新能源汽车消费市场及供应链受到冲击，传导至 国内外销占比高的三元正极厂订单可能受损，同时国内储能 531 抢装对碳酸锂的采购已于 3 月结束，出口至美国又面临提前而来的天量关税，储能订单出现转弱迹象。正极厂 4 月排 产环比微幅增长，价格大跌时也有一定采购，但表现仍然较为克制，并未出现低价囤货的 行为。 供应端，4 月产量先增后减，部分冶炼厂安排年度检修，部分买不到（低价）矿或亏 损减产。冶炼厂减产倒逼矿价下跌，澳矿 CIF 价格已经跌破 800 美元/吨，市场预期继续下 行至 750 美元/吨。今年以来智利出口至中国的碳酸锂部分未进行清关，积压在保税库，因 此中国进口量和智利出口有一定差距。4 月国内供应虽然因减产因素可能低于此前排产计 划 ...

Group 1: Impact of Tariff Policies - The impact of US-China tariff policies on the company's operations is limited, as the export business to the US accounts for a small proportion and most products are on the exemption list [1] - The company has no procurement of raw materials or equipment from the US, and it maintains communication with customers regarding supply chain stability and tax optimization in response to tariff changes [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company experienced improved operational performance, benefiting from increased foreign exchange gains and a turnaround in derivatives from loss to profit compared to Q1 2024, leading to a significant rise in net profit [1] - The competitive landscape in the new energy sector is intense, with some pressure on performance due to the transition of production lines to fixed assets and depreciation [1] - The company anticipates a breakthrough in revenue from its new energy business in 2025 [2] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Business Development - The pharmaceutical business is progressing as planned, with expectations for growth in 2025, focusing on major clients, primarily European pharmaceutical companies [2] - The company is enhancing existing partnerships while simultaneously developing new clients and strengthening R&D capabilities [2] Group 4: New Energy Business Progress - The new energy business is advancing with ongoing customer communication, project R&D, and quality system development [2] - The company is entering the new energy sector with products like electrolytes, aiming for revenue breakthroughs in 2025 [2] Group 5: Overseas Factory Performance - The UK factory is expected to see improved operational performance in 2025, with a rise in capacity utilization and profitability achieved in Q1 2025 due to foreign exchange gains [3][4] - The Malaysian factory is still in the construction phase, with investment progress contingent on order situations [4]

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Financial Data - The central bank conducted 279 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday with an operating rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net daily investment of 103 billion yuan after 176 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3] - This week, 504.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open - market operations will mature, with 176 billion, 220.5 billion, and 108 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Wednesday respectively, and the funds due on Thursday and Friday will be postponed to the first trading day after the holiday [4] - The meeting mentioned "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", creating new structural monetary policy tools, and establishing new policy - based financial tools, but the urgency of short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has decreased [4] Group 2: Bond Market - DR001 closed at 1.45% with a - 1.96bp change, DR007 at 1.75% with a 3.59bp change, GC001 at 1.90% with a 21.50bp change, and GC007 at 1.85% with a 7.00bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M remained at 1.75% with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.60% with no change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.46% with a 1.00bp change, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.54% with a - 0.50bp change, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.65% with a - 1.25bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.29% with a - 3.00bp change [3] Group 3: Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - Yesterday, the CSI 300 fell 0.14% to 3781.6, the SSE 50 rose 0.09% to 2651.2, the CSI 500 fell 0.51% to 5598.3, and the CSI 1000 fell 1.05% to 5877.1. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.0564 trillion yuan, a decrease of 57.2 billion yuan from last Friday [5] - Industry sectors generally declined, with real estate services, real estate development, food and beverage, tourism and hotels, engineering consulting services, decoration and building materials, and commercial department stores leading the decline, while only banks, games, jewelry, steel, and power industries rose [5] - The Politburo meeting on April 25 released limited incremental information on aggregate policies, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies and the refinement of support policies in specific areas [6] - The short - term trend of stock indices faces a situation of mixed long and short factors. The uncertainty of the Trump administration's actions complicates Sino - US tariff negotiations, while the strong Q1 economic data in China reduces the urgency of short - term incremental policies [6] - The short - term recommendation is to hold a light position in stock index futures and wait for the market direction to become clear. Considering the high overseas uncertainty during the May Day holiday and the low option volatility, a double - buying strategy for stock index options can be considered before the holiday [6] Group 4: Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The IF premium/discount rates for the current - quarter, next - month, current - month, and next - quarter contracts are 10.41%, 9.29%, 7.33%, and 5.51% respectively [7] - The IH premium/discount rates for the corresponding contracts are 4.46%, 6.03%, 5.41%, and 3.56% respectively [7] - The IC premium/discount rates for the corresponding contracts are 15.32%, 15.66%, 11.48%, and 9.61% respectively [7] - The IM premium/discount rates for the corresponding contracts are 16.86%, 17.35%, 13.18%, and 11.40% respectively [7]

国投安信期货：棉花操作上暂时观望 昨天美棉大幅下跌，美棉最新的周度签约数据表现一般，截至2025年4月27日当周，美国棉花种植率为 15%,前一周为11%,去年同期为14%,五年均值为14%。国产棉现货交投平淡，现货基差较为坚挺，纯棉 纱纺企散单出货，库存略升，价格本周稳中偏弱。国内内销数据表现尚可，外需面临的挑战较大，关税 实质影响仍未完全落地。中美仍未进行实质性的谈判，特朗普观点较为反复，继续关注后续情况，操作 上暂时观望。 机构 核心观点 光大期货 短期郑棉仍以区间震荡对待 国投安信期货 棉花操作上暂时观望 南华期货（603093） 棉价或维持偏弱小幅震荡 光大期货：短期郑棉仍以区间震荡对待 国际市场方面，近期宏观层面仍有扰动，特朗普消息不断且变向较快，美元指数重心先升后降，美棉价 格承压下行，持续关注宏观层面变化。国内市场方面，郑棉期价整体仍维持震荡走势。展望未来，我们 认为短期郑棉下方有一定支撑，原因有以下几点：一是中美关税税率较此前再度恶化空间不大，二是新 棉种植期，国内棉花种植面积较此前预估或小幅下降，未来天气若有扰动则是利多，三是对未来国内宏 观政策的预期。综上，我们认为短期郑棉底部有一定支撑 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周一，ICE 美棉下跌 1.8%，报收 67.56 美分/磅，CF509 下跌 0.46%，报收 12950 元 | 震荡 | | | /吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 1706 手至 56.93 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 13988 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日持平，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14244 元/吨，较前一日上涨 | | | | 10 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期宏观层面仍有扰动，特朗普消息不断且变向较快， | | | | 美元指数重心先升后降，美棉价格承压下行，持续关注宏观层面变化。国内市场方 | | | | 面，郑棉期价整体仍维持震荡走势。展望未来，我们认为短期郑棉下方有一定支 | | | | 撑，原因有以下几点：一是中美关税税率较此前再度恶化空间不大，二是新棉种植 | | | | 期，国内棉花种植面积较此前预估或小幅下降，未来天气若有扰动则是利多，三是 | | | | 对未来国内宏观政策的预期。综上，我们认为短期郑棉 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 04 月 29 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡运行 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 看涨期权空头持有。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 剧烈震荡 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡走强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 区间波动 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 走势偏弱 | | ◆玉米： | 逢低做多 | | ◆豆粕： ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For stock index futures, the strategy suggests a volatile operation [2] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is positive [3] 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that there is no consultation or negotiation on tariffs between China and the US. China has strong strategic determination, and the probability of major favorable policies before the holiday is low. It is advisable to adopt a defensive strategy during the holiday [1] - **Treasury Bond**: During the policy - free window period, there is no clear market guidance, and the bond market is in a calm state. The market is fatigued by the repeated Sino - US tariff negotiations under the medium - and long - term logic, and the pricing is gradually weakening. Before clear policy signals or economic data are released, the low - volatility market of the bond market may continue [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 fell 0.19%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.06%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 fell 0.52%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 fell 0.97% [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market is oscillating with a slightly stronger trend [5] Treasury Bond - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.03%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.06%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01% [6] - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is oscillating [7] Futures Data - On April 28, 2025, detailed data on closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various futures contracts such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, 10 - year treasury bond, 5 - year treasury bond, 30 - year treasury bond, and 2 - year treasury bond are provided [9]

黑色产业日报 周一铁矿盘面震荡运行，特朗普放言可能降低对华关税，国际贸易紧张 情绪有所缓和。铁水产量出现超预期增长，引发铁水见顶回落预期，同 时叠加后续出口持续性担忧。供给方面，全球发运与上周基本持平，其 中澳洲发运有所回升，巴西发运下降。到疏港量均有回落，部分压港释 放，港口库存有所回升。需求方面，铁水产量大幅增长，整体进口矿日耗 有所增加。本周钢厂复产节奏加快，成材价格暂稳，钢厂生产积极性提 高。上周末出现粗钢限产传闻，但尚未见到具体政策文件出台，暂以不 实小作文看待。即便属实，五千万吨限产相较总量仍然较少，正反馈难 以形成，矿价仍是弱势。基本面铁矿属于供需双强阶段，但即将进入传 产业服务总部 黑色产业团队 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格冲高回落，杭州中天螺纹钢 3240 元/吨，较上周 五上涨 50 元/吨，05 合约基差 180（+15）。宏观层面，4 月 22 日， 特朗普表示将会"大幅降低"对中国的高额关税，不过国内强调目前双 方并未开展任何经贸谈判，另外，4 月 25 日政治局会议召开，没有强刺 激信号；产业层面，最近一期数据，螺纹钢表需下滑、产量持稳，去库速 度仍然较快，通常而言， ...