市场主流观点汇总 2025/5/20 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/5/16 | | | 2025/5/12 至 | 2025/5/16 | | | | 乙二醇 | 4461.00 | 乙二醇 | | | 5.74% | | | | 铁矿石 | 736.50 | 铁矿石 | | | 4.60% | | | | PTA | 4798.00 | PTA | | | 4.19% | | | | PV ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential crisis in palm oil inventory due to the interplay between recovering production and demand variables, with expectations for crude palm oil prices to fluctuate within a specific range in May [1] Group 1: Production and Demand Dynamics - There is a recovery in palm oil production, which may lead to increased supply in the market [1] - Demand variables are also influencing the market, creating uncertainty regarding future price movements [1] Group 2: Price Expectations - Institutions predict that crude palm oil prices will operate within a certain range in May, reflecting the balance between supply recovery and demand fluctuations [1]

Group 1 - In the first three months of 2025, Inner Mongolia's crude oil production reached 539,000 tons, an increase of 8.3% compared to the same period in 2024, but the growth rate slowed down by 13.2 percentage points [1] - The crude oil production accounted for 1.0% of the national output of 54.088 million tons during the same period [1] - The growth rate in Inner Mongolia was 7.2 percentage points higher than the national average [1] Group 2 - In March 2025, Inner Mongolia's crude oil production was 187,000 tons, reflecting an 11.6% increase year-on-year, but the growth rate decreased by 10.8 percentage points compared to March 2024 [2] - The production in March represented 1.0% of the national output of 19.025 million tons [2] - The growth rate in March was 8.1 percentage points higher than the national average [2]

Core Insights - In the first quarter of 2025, sulfuric acid production in Zhejiang Province reached 647,000 tons, representing a 6.7% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 9.4 percentage points lower than 2024 and 11.0 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - The total sulfuric acid production for the same period in the country was 27,368,884 tons, with Zhejiang accounting for 2.4% of the national total [1] Monthly Analysis - In March 2025, sulfuric acid production in Zhejiang Province was 227,000 tons, which is a 6.4% decrease compared to March 2024, but the growth rate was 4.0 percentage points higher than the same month in 2024 [3] - The production in March represented 2.5% of the national total sulfuric acid production of 9,212,782.4 tons for that month [3]

国泰海通发布研报称，维持钢铁行业"增持"评级。长期来看，产业集中度提升、促进高质量发展是未来 钢铁行业发展的必然趋势，具有产品结构与成本优势的钢企将充分受益;在环保加严、超低排放改造与 碳中和背景下，龙头公司竞争优势与盈利能力将更加凸显。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 地产持续下行，导致地产端钢铁需求占比有所下降，该行预期地产对钢铁需求的负向拖拽有望逐步减 弱;基建有望继续发挥托底作用，制造业需求有望平稳增长。总体来看，该行预期国内钢铁需求有望逐 步企稳。从供给端来看，部分钢企已出现连续亏现金流的情况，2024年发生两波主动性减产，供给的脆 弱性凸显，该行预期2025年供给端存在进一步减产的可能性。2025年3月13日，国家发改委发布关于 2024年国民经济和社会发展计划执行情况与2025年国民经济和社会发展计划草案的报告，提出"2025年 持续实施粗钢产量调控，推动钢铁产业减量重组"。钢铁行业有望加快并购重组，行业集中度提升将带 来盈利中枢的长期修复。 风险提示：供给端收缩不及预期，需求大幅下降。 盈利率环比上升 上周45港进口铁矿库存14166万吨，环比降72.62万吨，维持偏高位水平。上周螺纹模拟平均吨毛利2 ...

现 货 价 格 日期 豆粕江苏 菜粕广东 豆油江苏 棕榈油广州 菜油江苏 2025/05/13 2990 2370 8210 8490 9400 2025/05/14 2990 2370 8280 8710 9460 2025/05/15 2960 2400 8190 8580 9330 2025/05/16 2920 2390 8120 8500 9320 2025/05/19 2860 2390 8110 8510 9470 蛋 白 粕 基 差 ： 免责声明: 油 脂 基 差 ： 油 脂 油 料 盘 面 价 差 ： 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential regulatory measures on crude steel production in the second half of the year, indicating a possible shift in industry dynamics [1] - It raises concerns about the demand for iron ore, suggesting that a "demand winter" may be approaching, which could impact pricing and supply chains [1] Group 1: Steel Production Regulation - There is an expectation that regulatory efforts to control crude steel production will intensify in the latter half of the year [1] - The focus on production control may lead to significant changes in the steel market landscape [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Demand - The article suggests that the iron ore market may face a downturn in demand, referred to as a "demand winter" [1] - This potential decline in demand could have broader implications for pricing and the overall health of the iron ore industry [1]

金十数据5月19日讯，国际统计局数据显示，分产品看，4月份，规模以上工业623种产品中有341种产品 产量同比增长。其中，钢材12509万吨，同比增长6.6%；水泥16530万吨，下降5.3%；十种有色金属676 万吨，增长3.1%；乙烯298万吨，增长10.1%；汽车260.4万辆，增长8.5%，其中新能源汽车122.8万辆， 增长38.9%；发电量7111亿千瓦时，增长0.9%；原油加工量5803万吨，下降1.4%。 国家统计局：4月份新能源汽车产量122.8万辆，同比增长38.9% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the nearing completion of soybean harvest in Argentina and raises questions about whether the production will meet expectations and how future exports may change [1] Group 1: Soybean Harvest - Argentina's soybean harvest is approaching its end, prompting analysis of the final production figures [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the soybean yield will meet the anticipated levels, which could impact market dynamics [1] Group 2: Future Exports - The article hints at potential changes in soybean exports from Argentina, which could be influenced by the final harvest results [1] - Export trends will be closely monitored as they may affect global soybean supply and pricing [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel industry, indicating a recovery in both macro expectations and fundamentals, with steel prices expected to rebound [1]. Core Viewpoints - The supply side has started to decline from high levels, while foreign trade expectations have improved, leading to an increase in steel prices. The five major steel product prices have shown weekly increases, with rebar at 3,330 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,657 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,320 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,767 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,539 CNY/ton [1][2]. - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel companies has decreased to 2.4477 million tons, indicating a slight reduction in supply. Meanwhile, the total steel inventory has dropped by 454,100 tons to 14.3066 million tons, with social inventory decreasing by 393,700 tons [1][2]. - Demand has shown resilience, with total consumption of the five major steel products rising to 9.1376 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 685,600 tons [1][2]. Summary by Sections Production Data - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel companies is 2.4477 million tons, down 0.87% week-on-week. The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 91.76%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points [1][2]. - The electric arc furnace capacity utilization rate has increased to 56.57%, up 1.49 percentage points week-on-week [1][2]. Consumption Data - The apparent consumption of rebar increased by 463,900 tons, while hot-rolled coil consumption rose by 200,000 tons. However, cold-rolled coil consumption saw a slight decline of 5,100 tons [1][2]. Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory stands at 14.3066 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 454,100 tons. Social inventory has decreased to 9.9367 million tons, while steel mill inventory is at 4.3699 million tons [1][2]. Profitability - The average pig iron cost for 114 steel mills is 2,412 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 1 CNY/ton week-on-week. The gross profit per ton for rebar is 103 CNY, for hot-rolled coil is 31 CNY, and for cold-rolled coil is -44 CNY, indicating a recovery in profitability [1][2][3].