Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expansion rhythm of index constituent bonds is significantly slower than the growth rate of credit bond ETF scale. Amid the bond - snatching market, low - valuation transactions of constituent bonds emerge. There are three aspects to consider: "far", "发", and "扩". "Far" involves the conduction mechanism of corporate bond - China Securities - China Bond interest rates; "发" means that buying in the primary market can still be profitable during the bond - snatching period; "扩" refers to the analysis of constituent bonds benefiting from the issuance and expansion of science and technology innovation bond ETFs [1]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the Bond - Snatching Market Driven by the Expansion of Credit Bond ETFs - As of June 20, 2025, the total scale of 8 benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs reached 106.6 billion yuan, an increase of 77.7 billion yuan compared to the end of March, with a 41.7 - billion - yuan increase since June. The expansion rhythm of index constituent bonds is significantly slower than the growth rate of credit bond ETF scale. In the Shanghai market - making aspect, the scale of Shanghai - based benchmark market - making ETFs accounts for 11.0% of the credit bond index constituent bonds, a 4.5 - percentage - point increase compared to the end of May. In the Shenzhen market - making aspect, it accounts for 12.4%, a 4.8 - percentage - point increase compared to the end of May [1][3]. - During the bond - snatching market, low - valuation transactions of constituent bonds emerge. ETF product preferences lean towards constituent bonds with larger outstanding scales and higher valuation stability. For example, in the Shanghai market, the number of low - valuation transactions and transaction amounts of the top 3 constituent entities have significantly increased since June, with an average low - valuation amplitude of - 1.7BP, a 1BP increase compared to May, and the transaction amount from June 1 to June 20 was 5.37 billion yuan, a 1.61 - billion - yuan increase compared to the whole of May. In the Shenzhen market, trading volume has increased significantly since the second quarter, with an average low - valuation transaction amplitude of - 4.5BP in June, a 0.9BP increase compared to May, and the transaction amount from June 1 to June 20 was 3.94 billion yuan, a 1.26 - billion - yuan increase compared to the whole of May [1][7]. 2. Game "Far": The Conduction Mechanism of Corporate Bond - China Securities - China Bond Interest Rates - The impact of low - valuation transactions on bond valuations is mainly reflected in two dimensions. Firstly, the valuation divergence between exchange - traded corporate bonds and comparable inter - bank bonds. For example, the valuation difference between 24 Zhonghua 16 and its comparable inter - bank bond 25 Zhonghua MTN001 was within 2BP before the end of May, but has widened to 7BP since June. Secondly, the impact of the surge in credit bond ETFs on the yield curve. The duration of Shenzhen credit bond ETF is 3.05 years, and that of Shanghai credit bond ETF is 4.11 years. The surge in credit bond ETFs boosts the allocation demand for 3 - 5 - year credit bonds, flattens the yield curve, narrows the credit spreads of medium - and high - grade bonds, and drives down the overall valuation of high - grade credit bonds [1][12]. 3. Game "发": Buying in the Primary Market Can Still Be Profitable During the Bond - Snatching Period - Newly issued science and technology innovation bonds in the primary market are mainly issued at low valuations, with the coupon rate at issuance being on average - 6BP lower than the valuation. Among 53 non - financial science and technology innovation bonds with comparable bonds, 13 are issued at high valuations, 40 at low valuations, 13 with a low - valuation exceeding - 10BP, and the maximum low - valuation is - 25BP. Currently, most science and technology innovation bonds' valuations are within ±2BP of comparable bonds. The secondary bond - snatching market may spread to the primary market. Since May, the situation of weak profit - making effects caused by low - valuation issuance of science and technology innovation bonds may change. Some low - valuation issued bonds still have potential for discovery, and it is recommended to focus on science and technology innovation bonds with a low - valuation of within - 5BP in the primary market [1][17]. 4. Game "扩": Analysis of Constituent Bonds Benefiting from the Issuance and Expansion of Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs - There are two main lines for constituent bond discovery: bonds with a remaining term of over 5 years and an outstanding scale of over 1.5 billion yuan. Long - term science and technology innovation bonds can significantly enhance the portfolio duration and scale expansion. Bonds included in both the science and technology innovation bond index and the credit bond benchmark market - making index may benefit from both the expansion of credit bond ETFs and the issuance of the science and technology innovation bond index. Among them, non - perpetual bonds may have stronger allocation potential [1][19].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is increasingly recognized as a vital platform for capital operations, particularly in fund investment exits and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) [1][3] - The Hong Kong Company Secretarial Association emphasizes the importance of Hong Kong as a key international market for asset restructuring and fund exits for Chinese enterprises [1] - Recent discussions highlighted the growing trend of diversified exit strategies for investment institutions due to declining IPO valuations and increased liquidity demands [3] Group 2 - Legal experts discussed critical issues for funds and financial investors when exiting through the Hong Kong stock market, including special shareholder rights and compliance with Hong Kong Stock Exchange regulations [5] - The importance of understanding the differences in lock-up periods for various types of investors during the IPO stage was emphasized [5] - The regulatory requirements for cornerstone investors in the IPO process were outlined, along with potential exemptions [5] Group 3 - Cross-border M&A legal due diligence now requires a focus on trade compliance and risks associated with economic sanctions [7] - Geopolitical factors may lead to stricter antitrust reviews and foreign investment scrutiny in cross-border transactions [7] - Key clauses in M&A agreements may vary by region, with a trend towards enhanced guarantees and indemnities to increase transaction certainty [7] Group 4 - Recent updates to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange guidelines have introduced specific requirements for valuation disclosures in transactions [9][10] - Various valuation methods were discussed, including their principles, applicability, and key considerations during practical implementation [10] - Tax considerations for fund exits and M&A were addressed, including the tax treatment of RMB and USD fund structures [11]

截至2025年6月20日，中泰资管风险系统对各大资本市场的系统评分情况如下： 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为45.39，较上月42.04有所上升，权益评分仍属中等偏低风险区间。 当前市场在政策支持与经济复苏预期的双重作用下，基本面和情绪回暖，但全球不确定性及内部结构分化 仍对整体风险水平形成制约，并带来情绪与预期的折返跑。 沪深300估值较上月有所上升（本月46.58，上月43.53）。虽然估值整体有所回升，行业间估值分化现象依 然延续。目前，28个申万一级行业中钢铁、房地产、商业、国防军工、计算机的行业估值高于历史60%分 位数；农林牧渔、食品饮料、非银金融等行业的估值低于历史10%分位数。市场整体估值的调整，反映了 市场对经济复苏节奏和企业盈利预期的重新评估。 市场预期分数较上月有所下滑（本月48.00，上月55.00）。宏观分析师认为经济仍待政策呵护。消费高速 增长，但持续性需要观察。一些分析师认为美国关税战带来的出口转弱的预期对民间制造业投资的意愿有 较大抑制。月度房地产投资持续下降，商品房销售下滑，也对市场预期带来较大的负面冲击。中美互降关 税的后续政策协同效应仍在评估中。 市场情绪较上月有 ...

Group 1 - Foreign investors have shifted to net selling of Japanese stocks for the first time since March, selling 524.3 billion yen (approximately 3.62 billion USD) after 11 consecutive weeks of buying totaling 7.236 trillion yen [1] - Analysts attribute the shift to high market valuations, as the market continues to rise despite weak earnings, leading to concerns about overvaluation [1] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, may also be influencing foreign investors' decisions due to potential impacts on Japan's oil imports and inflation levels [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent net selling, foreign investment in Japanese stocks this quarter has reached approximately 6.81 trillion yen, marking the largest inflow in two years [2] - In the bond market, foreign investors sold 368.8 billion yen of Japanese long-term bonds, ending a three-week buying streak, but purchased 1.5 trillion yen in short-term notes, the highest level in nine weeks [2] - Japanese investors have been net sellers of foreign stocks for six consecutive weeks, selling 88.2 billion yen, while buying about 615.5 billion yen in long-term foreign bonds [2]

"如果《证券分析》能让你产生共鸣，即你能抵制投机并在某些时候保持冷静，那说明你天生适合价值投 资。" "价值投资都是以低于实际价值的价格购买证券或资产，也就是众所周知的'以 50 美分购买 1 美元'。" "估值既是一门艺术，也是一门科学，需要不断的判断。投资者的左脑分析能力必须与他更软性的右脑能力 相结合。" " （当下）价值投资者比以往任何时候都更有必要成为优秀的商业分析师。 " " 股价波动既是困境，也是机会。当股价超跌时，投资者可以利用这种价格错位，以低价购买企业的部分所 有权利益。 " " 最终，企业的未来现金流才是重要的。 " 他是《安全边际》的作者，该书早已售罄且没有再版，在亚马逊上的单本售价超过 2500 美元，被誉为价值 投资的必读经典。 卡拉曼也是《证券分析》第七版的主编，这本被誉为 " 价值投资圣经 " 的著作自 1934 年问世以来，历经 90 年仍然畅销不衰。 特别值得一提的是，他在这篇序言中还深入探讨了价值投资在数字化时代面临的新挑战和新机遇，阐述如何 在技术革命浪潮中坚守价值投资的核心原则。 经授权，聪明投资者在这篇 2.5 万字的序言中摘选出最有共鸣和现实感的内容分享给大家，如 ...

板块复苏：2025年至今医药板块迎来复苏 从资本市场来看：医药板块经历了4年的调整期，2025年至今板块迎来复苏，截至2025年5月30日，医药 生物行业涨跌幅位居申万31个一级行业中第6位，累计上涨4.57%。医药持仓环比上升，但仍处于历史 中低位。 趋势展望：创新药和AI带来增量机会，左侧资产带来存量机会 智通财经APP获悉，国联民生证券发布研报称，创新药建议布局存量风险出清、增量产品进入放量期、 估值合理的传统药企以及研发基础扎实、产品具备出海竞争力、2025年有出海关键进展的创新药企。医 药AI建议布局在数据、硬件和服务领域具备AI要素禀赋、存量业务相对扎实的公司。左侧资产估值修 复建议关注存量风险可控、估值合理、需求稳健增长的左侧资产，主要集中在传统药企、CRO、骨 科、IVD、医疗服务等赛道。 国联民生证券主要观点如下： 从基本面来看：医药多个细分板块的景气度企稳向上。创新药出海案例增多，中国在全球创新药研发中 占据越来越重要的地位;传统药企逐渐走出存量业务困境，实现创新转型;CXO、消费医疗等赛道也慢慢 走上了温和复苏之路。 增量看空间，存量看结构：增量机会可能会来自于创新药和AI带来的潜在成长 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective pullback after four consecutive days of gains, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (159570) dropping over 2.5% and quickly surpassing a trading volume of 1.3 billion HKD [1][3] - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical announced a licensing agreement for its proprietary drug Taitasip to Vor Bio, which includes a cash payment of 125 million USD and potential milestone payments totaling up to 4.105 billion USD, leading to a significant drop in Rongchang's stock price [3][4] - Other stocks within the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF also saw declines, including Innovent Biologics down nearly 4% and CanSino Biologics down over 3% [3] Group 2 - The current innovative drug market is characterized by a revaluation of assets, driven by the recognition of the commercial viability of leading companies, which is expected to continue as the market acknowledges the long-term value of R&D investments [5][6] - The market's focus has shifted towards data asset pricing rather than business development (BD) pricing, indicating that high-quality R&D data will attract reasonable market valuations regardless of short-term BD fluctuations [6] - Recent regulatory support from the drug administration aims to shorten clinical trial approval times and promote international collaboration in drug development, highlighting the strategic importance of innovative drugs for national security and economic growth [7] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (159570) has a strong focus on the innovative drug sector, with nearly 72% of its top ten holdings in leading companies, indicating a concentrated investment strategy [8] - The ETF has shown significant performance, with a nearly 99% increase over the past year, outperforming other medical indices [8] - The underlying assets of the ETF are traded on the Hong Kong stock market, allowing for T+0 trading, which enhances liquidity and investment flexibility [8]

Group 1 - The banking sector showed volatility on June 26, with the China Securities Banking Index rising by 0.27% at the time of reporting [1] - The Tianhong Bank ETF (515290) experienced a V-shaped rebound, increasing by 0.38%, potentially marking a five-day winning streak [1] - Notable performers among constituent stocks included Qingdao Bank and Suzhou Bank, both rising over 3%, while Ningbo Bank and Jiangsu Bank increased by over 2% [1] Group 2 - Minsheng Securities predicts that the banking sector's revenue growth is expected to stabilize by 2025, with potential for further valuation recovery [1] - In 2024, the banking sector will face performance pressures primarily due to insufficient effective credit demand, declining LPR, adjustments in existing mortgage loan rates, and reduced fees from wealth management fund sales [1] - Despite ongoing pressures in 2025, improvements in macroeconomic expectations, gradual resolution of real estate risks, and local government debt management are anticipated to alleviate concerns regarding significant fluctuations in bank asset quality, leading to further valuation recovery [1] Group 3 - Wanlian Securities highlights the attractiveness of the banking sector's dividend yield from the perspective of RMB asset allocation, alongside regulatory encouragement for insurance funds to increase market participation [2] - The introduction of the "Public Fund High-Quality Development Action Plan" is expected to guide continuous capital allocation towards the banking sector, reinforcing the valuation floor [2] - Future incremental capital is anticipated to support the sustained performance of the banking sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - After a 16-week period of adjustment, Huahong Semiconductor (01347) has seen a strong rebound in its stock price, reversing the downward trend in the wafer foundry sector [1] Industry Overview - The wafer foundry sector has performed well this year, with major players Huahong Semiconductor and SMIC both experiencing significant increases, with Huahong's stock rising over 60% [1] - The valuation increase in the sector is attributed to strong performance, with Huahong reporting Q1 2025 revenue of $541 million, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [1][2] - SMIC's revenue for the same period was $2.247 billion, up 28.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of $188 million, reflecting a staggering 162% increase [1][2] Company Performance - Huahong Semiconductor has achieved double-digit revenue growth for two consecutive quarters, with Q2 guidance indicating a growth rate of 15-20% [1] - The company has a total wafer capacity of 413,000 pieces, with an 8-inch wafer revenue of $231 million and a 12-inch wafer revenue of $310 million, the latter showing a significant year-on-year growth of 40.9% [2][4] - The company has maintained a high capacity utilization rate of 102.7% for 8-inch equivalent wafers, exceeding 100% for three consecutive quarters [4] Financial Metrics - Huahong's gross margin for Q1 2025 was 9.24%, while SMIC's was significantly higher at 22.52%, indicating a substantial gap in profitability [5] - Despite lower profitability, Huahong's strong cash flow performance is notable, with a net cash inflow of $50 million in Q1, contrasting with SMIC's net cash outflow of $160 million [6] - As of March 2025, Huahong had cash equivalents of $4.08 billion, while SMIC had $4.587 billion [6] Valuation and Market Sentiment - The market has assigned a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.19 to SMIC, while Huahong's PB ratio is only 1.25, indicating a 75% discount in valuation [7] - Analysts have mixed views on Huahong, with some downgrading its rating due to weak return on equity projections, while others have raised target prices based on expected product price improvements [9] - Overall, the wafer foundry sector is entering a new phase of upward trends, with Huahong's low valuation and improving quarterly performance presenting significant investment opportunities [9]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the ChiNext index dropping by 0.84% and over 3,600 stocks in the market showing losses, leading to a trading volume decrease to 1.07 trillion yuan, down 182.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The market failed to rebound as expected after a sharp drop, breaking the trend of strong recoveries following declines observed since May [1] Key Index Movements - The Shanghai Composite Index has faced repeated challenges at the 3,400-point mark, with four previous adjustments mirroring each other, characterized by a middle bearish line breaking through multiple short-term moving averages and decreasing trading volumes [3] - The index's trading volume shrank to 1.067 trillion yuan during the latest attempt to breach 3,400 points, indicating a potential fifth adjustment on the horizon [3] Sector Performance - The liquor sector saw a notable increase, with the China Securities Liquor Index rising nearly 3% in a single day, although it has declined by 11.67% since the announcement of new alcohol restrictions on May 18 [3] - The old energy sector, including oil and gas extraction, has experienced a downturn, while the new energy sector has shown volatility, with solid-state battery stocks initially surging before a rapid decline following the refutation of production cut rumors in the solar industry [4] Institutional Support - The banking and insurance sectors have provided crucial support to the market, indicating the presence of protective forces [6] - A more proactive fiscal policy is anticipated for 2025, with special bonds and a moderately loose monetary policy expected to bolster market resilience [6] Valuation Insights - A-shares are currently at historically low valuation levels, with the liquor sector's dividend yield becoming attractive compared to ten-year government bond yields [8] - The liquor industry is projected to reach a "valuation-earnings" double bottom by 2025, suggesting a mid-cycle buying opportunity [8] Future Market Outlook - The upcoming week holds uncertainty regarding the adjustment path, with potential for either a deep break that could attract outside capital or a mild pullback that necessitates monitoring of technology sectors for renewed investor interest [10] - Historical patterns suggest that current market adjustments may be a precursor to significant rebounds, similar to past instances where policy support and valuation bottoms coincided [10]