美国副总统万斯：我们认为有一项协议可以让伊朗重新融入全球经济。 ...

金十数据5月7日讯，日本经济团体联合会（Keidanren）会长德仓正一对日本国内企业信心的减弱表示 担忧，因为人们担心特朗普提高关税可能引发全球经济衰退。德仓正一表示，"各行业的许多人更担心 的是不确定性如何导致支出和投资下降，而不是美国关税的任何直接影响。"他还表示，关税对国内汽 车、钢铁和铝行业的企业造成了特别沉重的打击。虽然日本一直试图从特朗普政府那里获得让步，但美 国拒绝给予日本关税豁免，称对等关税中只有针对特定国家的部分是可以谈判的。德仓正一说，日本首 相石破茂领导的政府"必须努力尽快消除所有关税"，他敦促日本政府在与美国的谈判中更加不屈不挠。 日本经济团体联合会负责人就美国关税引发的后果发出警告 ...

Group 1 - Major stock indices opened significantly higher on May 7, with financial and real estate sectors leading the gains [1] - The A500 Index ETF (159351) rose by 0.84%, with trading volume quickly surpassing 320 million yuan, and several constituent stocks, including Xingyuan Material and Maiwei Co., saw gains exceeding 6% [1] - The A500 Index ETF closely tracks the CSI A500 Index, which selects 500 stocks representing strong market capitalization across various industries, balancing large-cap stocks while covering core leading assets in A-shares [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, along with a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates [1] - Huatai Securities expressed optimism for the Chinese stock market, anticipating a systematic decline in risk premiums and highlighting the importance of decreasing risk-free rates and capital market reforms as key drivers for new market entrants [1] Group 3 - Minsheng Securities noted that macroeconomic volatility in 2025 will lead to frequent market style shifts, urging investors to focus on the establishment of long-term mechanisms, including the cultivation of new external and internal demand [2] - The consumption sector, including tourism, dairy, food, and beer, is expected to benefit from the development of domestic demand, while resource products and capital goods will gain from the restructuring of global economic order [2] - Low-valuation financial sectors (banks, insurance) and the coal industry are seen as defensive, with ongoing support for intermediate and capital goods demand from the replenishment of manufacturing in Europe and the U.S. [2]

Key Points - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in May, with a 95% probability of no change, due to the resilience of the US economy and limited impact from tariffs on employment and inflation [1] - Current economic data shows signs of moderate weakening but no recession indicators, with significant layoffs in April not reflected in non-farm payroll data and strong PMI figures [1] - The focus will be on how Fed Chair Powell assesses the economic situation during the press conference, as any slowdown in employment and consumption could lead to recession risks [1] Outlook - The relationship between the White House and the Federal Reserve has eased, increasing the likelihood of the Fed sending positive signals [2] - Following strong non-farm payroll and PMI data, expectations for rate cuts have been delayed, and the Fed may have more room to stabilize market and economic expectations [2] - The upcoming FOMC meeting aims to provide a relatively positive signal to maintain market recovery since late April, reducing the potential for future interference from the Trump administration [2] Market Impact - The Fed's positive signals could lead to an increase in the probability of rate cuts if economic data weakens in the future [2] - The 10-year US Treasury yield and short-term rates are expected to trend downward, with US stocks entering a consolidation phase after volatility decreases [2] - It is suggested to gradually invest in US stocks, particularly in small-cap growth sectors, which may have greater upside potential compared to large-cap indices like the Dow and Nasdaq [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, emphasized that the Trump administration's economic agenda, including tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation, aims to strengthen the U.S. as a global capital destination [1] - Many corporate executives expressed concerns about the aggressive tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, which have led to companies pausing their investment plans [1] - Citigroup's CEO, Jane Fraser, noted that clients are preparing for difficult situations, with companies strengthening balance sheets and delaying business expenditures or investments [1] Group 2 - A Reuters poll indicated a high risk of global economic recession, with 92% of economists stating that the Trump administration's tariff policies have harmed business confidence [2] - The IMF's Managing Director, Georgieva, revised the global GDP growth forecast for FY2025 down from 3.3% to 2.8%, attributing this to the impact of U.S. tariffs [2] - Georgieva warned that the world is moving towards a period of increased shocks and volatility, with developed economies like the U.S. facing more inflation [2]

Group 1 - The recent increase in tariffs by the US government poses a significant risk to global economic growth, severely impacting the global commodity market, particularly oil prices, which are showing weak trends [1][2] - On May 5, the price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $1.16 to $57.13 per barrel, a decline of 1.99%, while Brent crude for July delivery dropped by $1.06 to $60.23 per barrel, down 1.73% [1] - In April, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil experienced a significant monthly decline of 18%, marking the largest drop since 2021 [1] Group 2 - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised its global oil demand growth forecast for this year down to 1.3 million barrels per day, with the adjusted annual average demand expected to be approximately 105.1 million barrels [2] - US economic data has intensified concerns over reduced oil demand, with March job vacancies falling to 7.192 million and the consumer confidence index dropping to 86 in April, the lowest in recent years [2] - In April, US gasoline demand decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, the largest decline in two years, indicating weakened consumption and slowing activity in manufacturing and transportation sectors [2] Group 3 - The oversupply of crude oil is a significant issue, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May, a substantial rise from the previous plan of 135,000 barrels per day [3] - Market predictions indicate a potential accumulation of 600,000 to 700,000 barrels per day in global oil inventories by the second half of 2025 [3] - Speculative behavior in the market has exacerbated pessimistic sentiment, with WTI net long positions dropping to historical lows and Brent crude experiencing a record weekly reduction of 162,300 contracts [3] Group 4 - The formation of a true bottom in oil prices requires several conditions: stabilization of global demand, adjustments in oil supply, a balanced geopolitical situation, and alleviation of inventory pressures [4] - OPEC+ has announced an increase in production of 411,000 barrels per day in June, but this may be paused or reversed depending on market conditions [4] - As of April 25, US crude oil inventories stood at 440.4 million barrels, a decrease of 2.7 million barrels from the previous week, yet still close to the five-year average [4] Group 5 - The uncertainty in international oil prices is expected to lead to significant volatility, presenting a severe challenge for energy security [5] - Countries are encouraged to diversify energy import sources and accelerate the development of renewable energy [5] - The international community should actively promote multilateral negotiations to ease trade tensions and restore economic growth, thereby stabilizing the global commodity market, including oil [5]

新西兰联储金融稳定报告：地缘政治风险加剧，导致金融市场波动加剧，并对全球经济活动构成重大风 险。 ...

新西兰联储发布半年度金融稳定性报告：全球经济环境已经变得越来越易于波动（不稳定）。 ...

Group 1 - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April 2025 is reported at 49.1%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from March, indicating a contraction for two consecutive months [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.8%, a reduction of 0.5 percentage points from the prediction made in January [1] - The manufacturing PMI for Asia in April is at 50%, down 1.3 percentage points from March, while Africa's manufacturing has returned to a contraction phase [1][2] Group 2 - Asian developing countries are encouraged to leverage domestic market demand and continue advancing industrial upgrades and technological innovation to mitigate external uncertainties [2] - The stability of Africa's manufacturing sector remains weak, with significant fluctuations, prompting countries to enhance internal trade and investment through the African Continental Free Trade Agreement [2] - European manufacturing PMI stands at 48.4%, slightly up by 0.2 percentage points from March, while the Americas' PMI is also at 48.4%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating ongoing contraction in both regions [2] Group 3 - The European manufacturing sector is still in a contraction phase, with the European Central Bank acknowledging significant downside risks to the Eurozone economy [3] - Concerns regarding inflationary pressures due to external uncertainties are rising, with institutions like Goldman Sachs and UBS noting an increased risk of recession in the United States for 2025 [3]

焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/5/6 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 911.50 | -19.00↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1502.00 | -36.00↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 381624.00 | +22988.00↑ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 44579.00 | +3913.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -54412.00 | -5794.00↓ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | 244.00 | +1077.00↑ | | | JM9-5月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 31.50 | -11.00↓ | J9-5月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 31.50 | +94.50↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 2100.00 | +2100.00↑ | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 940.00 | +50.00↑ | | ...