广发周观点：增量资金加码入市、稳增长方案即将出台、关注反内卷政策落地 宏观 | 浮出水面的两条政策线索 策略 | 下行风险和上行收益不对称 非银 | 增量资金加码入市，坚定推荐非银板块 电子 | DDR5 渗透提速，AI PCB 蓬勃发展 传媒 | 市监局要求平台企业理性竞争，景气度继续看好游戏与 IP 衍生品 食饮 | 再迎品牌跃迁黄金期 农业 | 黄鸡价格或触底，关注生猪"反内卷"政策落地情况 家电 | 以旧换新政策拉动内销快速增长，出口受关税政策扰动保持韧性 纺服轻工 | 纺织服装与轻工行业数据周报 环保 | 环保资产 RWA 探索，运营数字化价值将重估 电新 | 固态电池凝聚技术共识，加速材料+设备提质升级 建筑 | 雅下水电项目正式开工、重申资源安全逻辑看好矿服民爆板块，反内卷关注高股息化学、国际工 程 煤炭 | 煤焦价格延续上涨，供需面和市场预期向好，板块估值股息具备优势 建材 | 建材稳增长方案即将发布，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程正式开工 金材 | 稳增长方案将提振金属价格 公用 | 总理出席雅下开工仪式，甘肃容量电价新政超预期 广发 · 周观点 | 7.14-7.20 核心观点 # 增量资金加码入 ...

锂反弹还是反转？20250721 摘要 工信部稳增长方案催化钢铁板块，当前钢铁库存处于十年同期最低位， 基本面稳固，普钢 PB 值偏低，看好后续表现，建议关注低 PB 标的新钢 股份、三钢闽光、华菱钢铁及南钢股份。 稀土磁材板块看好北方稀土和包钢股份，受益于中美战略博弈及基本面 涨价逻辑。美国国防部设定的氧化钇价格底线远高于国内现价，北方稀 土和包钢股份未来业绩可期。 碳酸锂价格近期上涨受江西矿山规范及藏格控股矿证续证影响，但并未 要求停产，市场行情具有一定持续性，宜春矿证问题是影响价格走势的 重要变量。 全球碳酸锂价格上涨至 700 美元/吨，澳洲生产仍有盈利空间，减产可 能性较小，若价格维持，将增加澳洲出清难度，赣锋马里项目增量将补 充国内市场，对价格有压制作用。 当前库存环比上升，但总库存仅相当于一个月需求量，库存量合理且动 态可调整。宜春事件和国际供应情况将成为未来走势的重要因素。 Q&A 钢铁板块当前库存处于 10 年期历史同期最低位，并且淡季没有出现需求负反 馈，基本面夯实。此外，普钢 PB 达到近十年的 15%分位，依然偏低，因此看 好该板块后续表现。从节奏上来看，上轮反内卷核心标的修复已在 2 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is currently in a period of intensive mid-year earnings forecasts disclosure, with nearly 120 companies having released their forecasts as of July 18, resulting in a positive earnings forecast rate of 50.85% [1] Group 2: Companies with Significant Earnings Growth - Pop Mart expects its revenue to grow by no less than 200% and profit to increase by no less than 350% in the first half of the year, driven by enhanced brand recognition and diversified product offerings [3] - Huabao International anticipates a pre-tax profit of between 151.2 million to 177.2 million yuan, representing a growth of approximately 91.3% to 124.3% compared to the same period last year [3] - Guoquan expects a net profit of approximately 180 million to 210 million yuan, reflecting a growth of about 111% to 146% year-on-year, attributed to ongoing revenue growth and improved operational efficiency [4] - Zhou Hei Ya forecasts total revenue between 1.2 billion to 1.24 billion yuan, a slight decline of about 1.5% to 4.7% year-on-year, but expects profit to increase by 55.2% to 94.8% [4] - October Rice Field anticipates adjusted net profit of no less than 283 million yuan, a growth of at least 90% compared to the previous year, driven by innovation and deep operations in the home food category [5] - Andeli Juice expects a net profit of approximately 187 million to 214 million yuan, an increase of 40% to 60% year-on-year, due to increased customer orders and significant growth in concentrated juice sales [5] Group 3: Companies with Expected Earnings Decline - Conning Hospital projects a decline in net profit of approximately 25% to 35% compared to the same period last year, primarily due to reduced operating income from decreased average daily expenses per bed [7] - Xinyi Solar expects a net profit decline of 56% to 66% in the first half of 2025, attributed to a significant drop in average selling prices of solar glass products and an oversupply in the market [8] - Xinyi Glass anticipates a net profit decrease of 55% to 65%, driven by declining revenue and gross profit in the float glass business due to weak demand and market price pressures [8]

【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2025.7.21 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、铁矿石、煤焦） 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025.7.18 | 2025.7.11 | 价格变动 | 涨跌幅 | | 2025.7.18 | 2025.7.11 | | 涨跌幅 | | 螺纹钢 | RB2510 | 3147 | 3133 | 14 | 0.45% | HRB400E: Φ20:汇总价格:上海 | 3250 | 3220 | 30 | 0.93% | | 热轧卷板 | HC2510 | 3321 | 3273 | 48 | 1.47% | Q235B: 5.75*1500*C: 市场价: 上海 | 3340 | 3300 | 40 | 1.21% | | 铁矿石 | 60521 | 785 | 764 | 21 | 2.75% | 日照港P ...

研究咨询部王静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 时间：2025年7月21日 冠通期货 铜周度策略展望 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 铜 | 品种 | 交易逻辑 | 多空观点 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 宏观方面，美国CPI、PPI数据小幅超预期，通胀数据表现温和，目前美联储降息的决定不确定性高，美联储未来主席人选的博弈，7月降息 | | | | | 的可能性依然迷茫，但目前市场普遍认为7月降息的概率依然偏低，美元本周走强，压制有色市场的行情价格。8月1日，铜关税或正式落地， | | | | | 据外媒报道，此次铜关税除精炼铜纳入范围外，铜材或同样征收铜关税。7月18日，国新办发布会表示，下一步将印发新一轮有色金属稳增 | | | | | 长的方案，注重供需两端协同发力。供给方面，截至2025年7月18日，现货粗炼费为-43.16美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.31美分/磅。冶炼 | | | | | 厂粗炼费、精炼费本 ...

| 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 日涨跌(%) | 笔数 | 环比(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600774 | 汉商集团 | 1.01 | 71643 | 4471.98 | | 600829 | 人民同泰 | 9.96 | 44817 | 1372.79 | | 000400 | 许继电气 | 9.98 | 116419 | 800.94 | | 300712 | 永福股份 | 11.68 | 28216 | 737.52 | | 605118 | 力鼎光电 | 6.33 | 51714 | 722.29 | | 600792 | 云煤能源 | 1.23 | 66471 | 720.33 | | 002092 | 中泰化学 | 4.35 | 42609 | 667.18 | | 002652 | 扬子新材 | -4.97 | 41295 | 666.99 | | 300823 | 建科智能 | 11.71 | 25196 | 666.07 | | 002457 | 青龙管业 | 10.00 | 45180 | 649.75 | 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至7月 ...

港股市场迎来中期业绩预告密集披露期。 Wind数据显示，截至7月18日，已有近120家港股上市公司发布业绩预告，其中，37家公司业绩预增，14 家公司业绩扭亏，9家公司业绩略增。整体来看，目前港股市场中期业绩预喜率为50.85%。 泡泡玛特等预计业绩翻倍 在目前已发布业绩预告的公司中，泡泡玛特、华宝国际、锅圈等多家公司预计业绩最大增长幅度翻倍。 泡泡玛特的业绩预告显示，公司预计今年上半年收入增长不低于200%；预计公司盈利较去年同期增长不 低于350%。 泡泡玛特表示，业绩波动主要归于以下原因：泡泡玛特品牌及旗下IP在全球的认可度进一步提升，多样化 的产品品类促进公司收入增长，公司各区域市场收入均实现持续高速增长；海外收入占比持续提升，收入 结构的变化对毛利、盈利均产生积极影响。同时，规模效应使盈利显著增加；持续优化产品成本，加强费 用管控，提升盈利能力。 在近期发布业绩预告的港股上市公司中，也有公司预计中期业绩减少。 康宁医院近日发布盈利预警公告，预计今年上半年归属于母公司股东的净利润，将较2024年同期下降约 25%—35%。 公司表示，业绩变动主要是由于住院平均每床日总开支下降导致营业收入减少所致。 康 ...

Report Title - "Domestic 'Anti-Involution' Drives Market Sentiment Upward - Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report 2025.07.21" [1] Report Author - Liu Peiyang [2] Report Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views Copper - Macro: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non-ferrous metals, providing some support. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the Fed's interest rate cut path needs further observation [3]. - Fundamental: Although LME copper inventories have increased slightly, they remain at historical lows. Demand has weakened significantly as prices rebounded, showing a phased supply - demand weakness due to the traditional off - season [3]. - Overall: The impact of tariff shocks on copper prices is gradually digested. After prices stabilize, a bullish approach is recommended [3]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non-ferrous metals, providing some support. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the Fed's interest rate cut path needs further observation [5]. - Fundamental: With the release of supply increments and the suppression of the consumption off - season, the expectation of inventory accumulation is still strong [5]. - Overall: The improvement of domestic macro expectations significantly boosts industrial products. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [5]. Alumina - Macro: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non-ferrous metals, providing some support. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the Fed's interest rate cut path needs further observation [7]. - Fundamental: In the week of July 17, the operating capacity of alumina increased by 500,000 tons/year to 89.07 million tons/year, and the weekly inventory of alumina in electrolytic aluminum plants increased by about 25,800 tons, putting some pressure on spot prices [7]. - Overall: The expectation of supply - side reform and the decline of warehouse receipts to a low level. Alumina breaks through the low - level oscillation range upwards, and a bullish approach is recommended [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Weekly Price Changes**: Provided the weekly cumulative price change statistics of various metals from July 14 - 18 [14]. - **Weekly News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of ten key industries, including non-ferrous metals. In the first half of the year, the non-ferrous metal industry had positive growth in production, revenue, and profit, and its green - low - carbon level improved significantly. Chile will discuss the impact of US copper tariffs. LME's 8 Hong Kong approved warehousing facilities started operation. Kazakhstan plans to restrict the export of certain key products and cancel the export tariff on gallium [15]. 2. Macro Analysis - **Domestic**: In Q2 2025, GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year. In June, industrial added value increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 4.8% year - on - year. From January to June, fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year - on - year. Exports supported industrial production, but real estate investment declined further [19]. - **Overseas**: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year. After the CPI release, the US dollar index and Treasury yields rose, and the expectation of interest rate cuts decreased slightly [22]. 3. Copper Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The processing fee TC remained weak [28]. - **Futures Market**: COMEX's net long positions increased [31]. - **Overseas Market**: The US dollar index rebounded from a low level [35]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, SMM's national mainstream copper inventories decreased by 4,300 tons to 143,300 tons compared to Monday, and were 231,800 tons lower than the same period last year [41]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis - **Domestic Market**: The spot premium widened [44]. - **Foreign Market**: The US dollar index rebounded from a low level [48]. - **Inventory**: The report provided data on electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod social inventories, as well as LME and SHFE aluminum inventories [50]. - **Downstream开工**: As of July 17, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing industries increased by 0.2 percentage points to 58.8%. Different sectors had different trends, and SMM expected the weekly operating rate to decline by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week [52]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of July 17, the SMM ADC12 price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 20,000 yuan/ton. The industry faced cost and demand challenges, and prices were expected to fluctuate narrowly [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: The report analyzed the relationship between the price of electrolytic aluminum and the prices of alumina, pre - baked anodes, and thermal coal [60]. 5. Alumina Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Spot prices remained stable [63]. - **Futures Market**: Inventory futures continued to decline [65]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply changed little, with some areas having tight supply due to maintenance. Demand increased as some electrolytic aluminum enterprises resumed production or transferred capacity [70]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of the week of July 17, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,995.43 yuan/ton, and the average profit was 193.15 yuan/ton [71].

美国财长贝森特：在人工智能发展推动下，生产力即将迎来爆发式增长。 ...

威瑞森电信在收窄财年 每股收益预测后，盘前股价涨超4%。威瑞森预计2025财年调整后每股收益增长 1.0% 至3.0%；调整后息税折旧摊销前利润增长2.5%至3.5%。 ...