Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending May 24 was 240,000, which is higher than the expected 230,000 and the previous value of 227,000 [1]

美国5月17日当周续请失业救济人数 191.9万人，预期 189.3万人，前值 190.3万人。 ...

美国至5月24日当周初请失业金人数、第一季度实际GDP年化季率修正值、加拿大第一季度经常帐将于 十分钟后公布。 ...

Group 1: Trade and Economic Policy - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that President Trump's imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceeded legal authority, emphasizing that the Constitution grants Congress exclusive power over foreign trade [1] - The ruling indicates a potential shift in trade policy and could impact future tariff decisions and international trade relations [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed that most policymakers acknowledged facing "difficult trade-offs" in the coming months, with concerns about rising inflation and unemployment [3] - There are warnings about increasing recession risks and the need to monitor recent volatility in the bond market, which could pose risks to financial stability [3] - Changes in the dollar's safe-haven status and rising U.S. Treasury yields may have long-term economic implications [3] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - International gold prices have seen a significant decline, breaking the key support level of 3280 and reaching around 3245, indicating a bearish trend [4] - The daily chart shows a four-day consecutive decline, with MACD indicators suggesting a potential shift to a bearish trend if it falls below the zero line [4] - Short-term trading strategies suggest selling on rallies around the 3282-93 range, with support targets set at 3260-3250 and further down to 3209 if broken [6]

Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the Trump administration's "Day of Liberation" tariff policy exceeded its authority, leading to a suspension of its implementation, emphasizing that presidential trade management powers cannot surpass those granted to Congress by the Constitution [1] - This lawsuit, initiated by five small import businesses, marks the first significant legal challenge against the tariff policy, with seven similar lawsuits ongoing [1] - The ruling has alleviated market concerns regarding the trade war, resulting in a rise in U.S. stock index futures, with the Nasdaq futures increasing by 1.8% [1] - The dollar index surpassed the 100 mark, reflecting a positive market sentiment following Trump's postponement of tariffs on the EU and an agreement with China to reduce tariffs [1] - The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes indicate officials are grappling with the dual challenges of rising inflation and unemployment, with a 60% probability of a rate cut in September [1] - Despite gold prices rising by 26% this year, the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve has suppressed gold prices [1] - Consumer confidence data exceeded expectations, reinforcing a robust economic outlook, while investors are focused on upcoming GDP, PCE data, and fiscal policy developments [1] Dollar Index - On Wednesday, the dollar index showed an upward trend, reaching a high of 99.933 and a low of 99.414, closing at 99.865 [2] - The market exhibited a bullish sentiment after a brief period of fluctuation, with a significant rise in the U.S. trading session [2] - Key resistance levels to watch include 100.20, with a focus on whether the index can maintain this level [2] - The weekly analysis indicates resistance at 101.70, suggesting a potential bearish trend in the medium term [2] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a decline on Wednesday, with a high of 3325 and a low of 3276.48, closing at 3288.35 [4] - The market showed a bearish trend after testing key resistance levels, leading to a significant downward movement [4] - Current support levels are identified at 3270, with a focus on potential further declines if this level is breached [5] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed a downward trend on Wednesday, with a low of 1.1283 and a high of 1.1344, closing at 1.1289 [6] - The market remains under pressure due to resistance levels, indicating a bearish outlook [6] - Long-term support is noted at 1.0800, while short-term focus is on the 1.1130 area [6] Key Financial Data and Events - Upcoming key financial events include the Bank of England Governor Bailey's speech, Canadian current account data, U.S. initial jobless claims, and revisions to U.S. GDP [11]

你有没有觉得自己 "功能上失业"？如果是这样，您绝对不孤单。有很多人即使有工作，也无法每月支 付账单。事实上，有很多人即使有工作，也真的负担不起屋顶。是的，有许多辛勤工作的美国人现在住 在他们的车里或"帐篷社区"，因为这就是他们能负担得起的。近年来，生活成本的上涨速度远快于工资 的增长速度，因此现在很大一部分人口生活在持续的财务压力状态中。我们周围的中产阶级一直在崩 溃，我们现在正在全国各地目睹大量的经济苦难。 多年来，联邦政府一直在告诉我们，美国的失业率非常低。 每个人都知道这是一堆大杂烩。 根据路德维希共享经济繁荣研究所最近发布的一份报告，上个月美国的真实失业率为 24.3%...... 但另一个指标表明，这些政府数据可能描绘了一幅过于乐观的经济图景，路德维希共享经济 繁荣研究所 （LISEP） 最近的一份报告发现，4 月份的"真实失业率"为 24.3%，略高于 3 月 份的 24%，而美国劳工统计局的官方失业率同期保持在 4.2% 不变。 LISEP 的措施不仅包括失业工人，还包括正在寻找工作但找不到全职工作的人，以及那些被 困在贫困工资工作中的人。通过跟踪功能性失业工人，该指标旨在捕捉其他经济指标遗漏 ...

特朗普关税政策被法院叫停，全球贸易谈判形势再添迷雾；美联储会议纪要显示，失业率上升和通胀上升的风险均有所提高； 韩国央行行长透露，亚洲国家与美国进行了外汇谈判，当前黄金、欧/美多空胶着，美/日空头占优，后市情绪如何？欢迎前 往"数据库-嘉盛市场晴雨表"查看并订阅（数据每10分钟更新1次） 电话.1 0370 T / 70 香港恒生指数 79% 21% 标普500指数 70% 30% 纳斯达克指数 74% 26% 道琼斯指数 31% 69% 日经225指数 54% 46% 德国DAX40指 33% 67% 数 外汇 T 多头 空头 欧元/美元 54% 46% 欧元/英镑 12% 88% 欧元/日元 71% 29% 欧元/澳元 16% 84% 英镑/美元 25% 75% 英镑/日元 33% 67% 美元/日元 31% 69% 美元/加元 44% 56% 美元/瑞郎 87% 13% 澳元/美元 75% 25% 澳元/日元 62% 38% 加元/日元 72% 28% 纽元/美元 49% 51% 纽元/日元 71% 29% 美元/离岸人 85% 15% 民币 免责声明:本图表数据来源于公众号:嘉盛集团,数据仅供参考,不 ...

2025.05. 28 本文字数：1645，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 金融市场波动受关注 与今年前两份声明有所不同，美联储本月提到了贸易。当时的决议声明显示，尽管净出口的波动影响 了数据，但最近的指标表明，经济活动继续以稳健的速度扩张。近几个月来，失业率稳定在较低水 平，劳动力市场状况依然稳健，通货膨胀率仍然有所上升。 最新会议纪要称，与会者一致认为，自2022年达到峰值以来，通货膨胀有所缓解，但仍有所上升， 并可能因新的贸易壁垒而加速。"与会者认为，尽管这些影响存在很大的不确定性，但很可能会受到 更高关税的影响。几乎所有参与者都评论了通货膨胀可能比预期更持久的风险。" 一些与会者警告说，即使是未受关税影响的公司也可能利用价格环境作为掩护来提高自己的价 格。"企业通常计划将部分或全部与关税相关的成本增加转嫁给消费者。" 尽管长期预期保持稳定，但向上漂移的风险仍然存在。会议纪要称："一些参与者看到了物价可能会 向上漂移的风险，这可能会给通胀带来额外的上行压力。" 美联储认为劳动力市场状况"大致平衡"，失业率稳定，裁员人数低。但一些企业已经开始由于不确 定性增加而限制或暂停招聘，未来几个月劳 ...

与此同时，英伟达在美股盘后披露的财报也备受市场关注。其中显示，英伟达第一财季营收为441亿美元，同 比增长69%，高于分析师预期的432.9亿美元。受此影响，英伟达股价盘后直线拉升，一度大涨超6%。 美联储发布 北京时间5月29日凌晨，美联储官网发布了今年5月的货币政策会议的纪要。纪要显示，美联储决策者普遍认 为，经济面临的不确定性比之前更高，对待降息适合保持谨慎，等待特朗普政府关税等政策的影响更明朗，再 考虑行动。 纪要写道，美联储官员们认为，未来几个月他们可能面临"艰难的权衡"，即通胀和失业率双双上行的风险都有 所增加，而经济不确定性加剧证明谨慎的货币政策是适当的。 在本月稍早的会议上，美联储连续第三次将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%—4.5%不变。 美联储的会议纪要释放重磅信号。 今日凌晨，美联储在官网发布的5月会议纪要显示，美联储决策者认为美国经济前景的不确定性"异常高"，失 业率和通胀上升的风险都有所增加，目前保持谨慎的货币政策是适当的。 受这份偏"鹰派"的会议纪要影响，美股三大指数尾盘集体走弱，截至收盘，道指跌0.58%；纳指跌0.51%，标 普500指数跌0.56%。有分析指出，美联储决策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's staff has presented a clear stagflation forecast during the May meeting, which may serve as the foundational framework for the upcoming Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) [1] Group 1: Economic Predictions - The Federal Reserve staff indicated a substantial slowdown in the labor market, leading to an expected rise in the unemployment rate this year [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain elevated throughout the forecast period, extending to 2027 [1] - Inflation is expected to rise "significantly" this year, with a smaller price increase anticipated in 2026 [1] Group 2: Inflation Risks - The staff noted that if their inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 (projected at 2%) are incorrect, it is more likely to be an underestimation rather than an overestimation of inflation risks [1]