| Millio | 国投期货 | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月24日 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 文文文 | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 一季度全球石油库存增加2%，二季度以来累增2.3%累库速度基本延续，其中原油库存累增2.4%、成品油库存累增2.2%。库存 表现符合平衡表宽松预期，三季度旺季累库幅度或有放缓，但在OPEC+增产周期及贸易战对需求的风险依然存在的背景下供大 于求的宽松形势难改。本轮反弹宏观面、供需面的支撑力度有限，溢价点集中在中东地缘风险，伊以停火协议的达成令单边价 格、内外盘价差、外盘柴油裂解等风险溢价面临 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets are experiencing volatility due to ongoing policy disturbances and structural changes, with a focus on the relationship between transformation and balance, as well as risk and return [1][2]. Policy Environment - A series of incremental policies have been introduced to stabilize market expectations and boost investor confidence, covering fiscal, financial, consumption, and investment areas [2][3]. - Since September 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen over 20%, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [2]. Market Dynamics - The current macro environment is favorable for both equity and bond markets, with ongoing policy support and a positive economic structural transition [3][4]. - Investors are encouraged to consider "fixed income plus" products, which combine stable fixed income assets with some equity exposure to enhance returns [3][5]. Investment Strategies - For bond funds, the overall performance has been weaker compared to previous years, necessitating new strategies to enhance fund returns [5][6]. - Investors should adjust their portfolios based on their risk tolerance, with options ranging from cash-like assets for low-risk tolerance to "fixed income plus" products for moderate risk tolerance [6][7]. Fund Selection - Different types of fixed income funds exist, including pure bond funds categorized by duration and credit quality, which exhibit varying levels of volatility [7][8]. - Investors should prioritize funds with a history of stable performance and consider factors such as lock-up periods and fees when selecting products [8].

转自：一度医药 然而，话锋一转，Onsi解释道："由于当前的市场环境，我们决定终止DeFianCe临床试验并进一步削减 内部开支。"这一决定，实则是Leap对sirexatamab研发路径的又一次"断舍离"。 回溯过往，sirexatamab的研发之路可谓一路"缩水"。今年1月，Leap基于Ⅱ期试验的初步数据，决定终 止sirexatamab与百济神州抗PD-1抗体替雷利珠单抗联合用于胃癌治疗的开发。此前，该试验另一组评估 sirexatamab作为CRC一线治疗的结果未达预期，促使公司将研发重心转向二线治疗。 而就在上个月，Leap还宣布将sirexatamab与默沙东Keytruda联合用于子宫内膜癌的开发"降优先级"。 2025年6月23日，生物科技领域传来一则令人唏嘘的消息：Leap Therapeutics（以下简称"Leap"）宣布扩 大裁员规模，此次将裁撤75%的员工，同时终止其唯一正在进行的临床试验。这一系列激进的"收缩"举 措，折射出生物科技行业在当下市场环境中面临的生存压力。 从裁员50%到75%：资金告急下的无奈升级 这家总部位于马萨诸塞州的生物科技公司，在短短一个月内经历了战略方向的重 ...

铝类产业日报 2025/6/24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 环比 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,315.00 80.00 | -50.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 0.00 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,903.00 60.00 | -3.00↓ +2.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 250,085.00 | -3512.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 281,916.00 | -4645.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 19,175.00 | -1875.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 90,295.00 | -23553.00↓ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） 沪铝前20名净持仓（日，手） | 2,592.00 -19,928.00 | +30.50↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） -100 ...

Group 1 - The core concept of "mainly investing in bonds while also investing in stocks" is to enhance returns through a combination of fixed income and equity investments [1] - The investment objective of such funds is not merely to seek returns but to achieve a balance between risk and return, focusing on stable long-term growth [7][10] - The strategy aims to meet the needs of investors who seek to achieve steady progress in their investments while managing risks effectively [2][3] Group 2 - The inclusion of bonds in the investment portfolio provides stable interest income and capital gains, which can help smooth out the overall volatility of the fund [2][6] - The correlation between stocks and bonds is typically low, allowing for effective risk diversification through multi-asset investment strategies [3][6] - Historical performance data shows that these funds can outperform pure bond funds during bullish stock market conditions while providing better downside protection during market downturns [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve exhibits significant internal divisions regarding interest rate predictions, with a median expectation of two rate cuts by 2025, but a wide range of forecasts from no cuts to a reduction of 75 basis points, highlighting a notable split among policymakers [1][3]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - The degree of disagreement among Federal Reserve officials is at a ten-year high, primarily due to fundamental differences in balancing inflation control and economic growth [3][4]. - The June SEP report indicates a polarized distribution of predictions for the federal funds rate in 2025, with a gap of 50 basis points between the most common and second most common forecasts, the highest in the past decade [4][11]. - The internal split among officials suggests potential for more debates and dissent in the coming months, although the uncertainty regarding the 2025 rate path is not unprecedented [6][10]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Despite a high level of disagreement on core PCE inflation predictions, which reached a one percentage point divergence, this has not translated into a historic split in federal funds rate expectations, partly due to a relative consensus on unemployment rate forecasts [9][10]. - The dual peak distribution in the June dot plot reflects fundamental disagreements on how to balance inflation control with economic growth, with some officials concerned about the risks of economic slowdown while others focus on persistent inflation [11].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年6月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：USDA6月报：25/26年度产量2547.2万吨，消费2563.8万吨，期末库存 1672.1万吨。ICAC6月报：25/26年度产量2600万吨，消费2570万吨。海关：5月纺织品 服装出口262.1亿美元，同比0.6%。5月份我国棉花进口4万吨，同比减少86.3%；棉纱 进口10万吨，同比减少16.67%。农村部6月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨， 消费740万吨，期末库存823万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14894，基差1429（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 ...

2024年，全球关键矿产需求有所增长，其中锂需求增长近30%，保持了2023年的强劲增势，超过21世纪 前十年10%的年增长率。此外，镍、钴、石墨和稀土需求增长了6%~8%；铜需求增长了3%。 然而，关键矿产供应增长超过了需求增长。由于筹备时间较短、投资量增加，2020年后的采矿活动增长 率明显高于21世纪前十年，其中多数增长来自老牌产矿国，如刚果民主共和国的钴、印尼的镍、我国的 天然石墨和锂等。但在锂供应增长过程中，阿根廷和津巴布韦等新兴产矿国也占了较大份额。此外，就 精炼材料而言，在我国和印尼等主要生产国加工能力充足的支持下，产量增速超过了原材料供应增速。 受供大于求影响，2024年用于制作电池的矿产价格表现低迷。锂价格2023年以来下跌了80%以上；石墨 和钴价格2024年下降了20%，镍价格下降了10%。而锰价格则是个例外，由于澳大利亚和加蓬的供应中 断，加上需求增长，2024年下半年明显上涨。铝、铜和锌等基本金属价格2024年出现反弹，并将在2025 年继续上涨，原因是主要产区减产和需求前景改善。 此外，由于资源质量下降、筹备时间延长、资本密集度提高，以及新项目开发的复杂性增加，基本金属 开采量增速 ...

Geopolitical Risks and Market Reactions - The recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have become a focal point for the market, despite the expectation that geopolitical risks would increase demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The market remains cautious, partly due to the hawkish stance maintained by Federal Reserve officials [1] - If Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could exceed $100, leading to heightened fear and panic among investors [1] Currency Volatility - The volatility of the USD/JPY pair is the highest across all time frames, particularly with a one-month volatility rate of -0.028 [2] - The USD/JPY pair rose to 147.39 yen following the U.S. attack on Iran, with traders holding $12.5 billion in yen long positions [2] - The Japanese yen has depreciated by 2.4% against the dollar since the Israeli missile strikes on Iranian targets began [2] Impact on Japan's Economy - Japan's heavy reliance on imported oil makes it vulnerable to rising oil prices, which threaten its trade balance and weaken the yen's attractiveness [3] - The spike in oil prices has worsened Japan's trade conditions, further diminishing its economic competitiveness [3] Eurozone Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's natural gas prices are highly correlated with the euro exchange rate, with rising gas prices likely to weaken the euro and reduce the current account surplus [5] - Natural gas prices have surged from approximately $2.8 to over $4 since late April, indicating a potential further shrinkage of the Eurozone's surplus [6] - The Eurozone's economic growth exceeded expectations at the beginning of the year, but lost momentum in April due to U.S. tariff policies [6] Swiss Franc and Safe-Haven Demand - The Swiss franc is supported by safe-haven demand and signals from the Swiss National Bank indicating no inclination to lower interest rates further [7] - The current USD/CHF pair is trading within a range established over the past week, with market participants remaining cautious about directional choices [7] UK Economic Activity - The UK's PMI data exceeded expectations, yet the GBP/USD exchange rate fell by 0.1% to $1.3430, indicating a muted market reaction [8] - Manufacturing activity in the UK has contracted for the ninth consecutive month, although the contraction rate is the smallest since January [8] - The June services PMI rose from 50.9 to 51.3, while the manufacturing PMI improved from 46.4 to 47.7, suggesting a slight recovery despite ongoing challenges [8]

2025 年 6 月 23 日 供需收紧，下方有限 ---2025 年豆一期货半年度行情展望 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 我们的观点：豆一期价下方空间有限。 我们的逻辑：1）供应增幅放缓。2025 年国产大豆生产稳中有增，种植面积、单产、总产量小幅提升，国产大 豆连续第四年高产。进口大豆数量维持高位，总供应增加、但增幅放缓。从全球角度看，全球大豆产量及供应 增幅均放缓。2）需求增幅略高于供应增幅。市场需求稳中有增。低价激励下，国产大豆的食品和压榨需求预计 增长，进口大豆压榨需求稳中有增，因猪周期带动豆粕需求增长。此外，国产大豆还有储备需求托底调节：若 市场需求不足、储备需求可以增加；若市场需求较好、储备需求可以减量。3）供需收紧。据 USDA 对中国大豆 供需平衡表的预估，2025/26 年度中国大豆库存消费比下降：需求增幅略高于供应，期末库存微降、库存消费 比下降，供需收紧。 风险提示：2025 年美豆种植面积同比增加、全球大豆供需重回宽松周期、超预期经济风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 请 ...