集采影响逐步出清，创新管线进展顺利 ——通化东宝 2024 年报&2025 年一季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 考虑到集采影响，我们下调公司收入与毛利率预期，同时上调整体费用率预期，预 测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 0.32、0.40、0.47 元（原预测值 2025-2026 年 分别为 0.44/0.58 元），参考可比公司平均市盈率，我们给予公司 2025 年 25 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 8.00 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 出海进度不达预期风险；新品上市不达预期风险；行业政策变动风险；新兴疗法冲 击风险；地缘政治变化风险等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 3,075 | 2,010 | 2,708 | 3,216 | 3,546 | | 同比增长 (%) | 10.7% | -34.7% | 34.7% | 18.8% | 10.3% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,365 | ...

张煜介绍称，今年AI赛道呈现出几大趋势，比如大模型从科研模型向产业模型转变，基础的算法算力 向实际的应用迈进。在他看来，AI编程（AI Coding）、AI智能体（AI Agent）和AI硬件将是今年三个 爆发的应用点。 被问及AI创业公司的估值问题，张煜指出，相比起前年和去年，当前估值水平已逐渐回归到理性状 态，大多数的项目与实际估值差距不大。此外，投资向头部公司聚集，例如，过去行业约有100家公 司，其中50家可获得融资，但单笔金额较小，如今可能只有10家能获得投资，但单笔融资规模显著扩 大。（徐苑蕾） "这三个领域可以真正落地，产生商业场景和价值，同时也能真正创造效益，甚至能够盈利。我们观察 了大模型很久，但是没有投资任何一个大模型，而是投资了几个行业模型，覆盖智慧大脑、工业智能、 生命科学蛋白质生成等。"张煜说。 责任编辑：杨赐 在对话中，张煜还重点谈到了人工智能新药研发（AIDD）。他表示，目前大药厂已经认可AI才是未 来。"过去大药厂认为，实验数据和病人是其重要资产，今天他们已经觉得，算法和AI的实验数据可能 会慢慢变成药厂的最重要资产。" 新浪科技讯 5月23日午间消息，第五届BEYOND国际科 ...

每经记者｜甄素静 每经编辑｜陈俊杰 5月23日，"药王"恒瑞医药在港交所正式挂牌上市，成功实现"A+H"两地上市。此次恒瑞医药全球发售约2.3亿股，发行定价为44.05港元/股，该发行价格为 预计发行价格的上限。 恒瑞医药H股首日上市交易，开盘上涨29.40%，开盘价为57.00港元/股。截至上午收盘，上涨30.65%。 恒瑞医药港股上市现场 每经记者 甄素净 摄 《每日经济新闻》记者在恒瑞医药港股上市现场看到，恒瑞医药管理层齐聚一堂，公司董事长孙飘扬参加了上市敲锣环节，公司执行董事兼副董事长戴洪斌 致辞。香港交易所上市委员会副主席黄嘉信在开场介绍了恒瑞医药及其在港股上市的基本情况。 戴洪斌在上市致辞环节表示，此次港股上市标志着恒瑞医药在登陆上海证券交易所25年后，正式完成"A+H"双资本平台布局。戴洪斌特别感谢了股东、合作 伙伴和客户的信任，以及香港交易所、证监会等在公司上市过程中提供的帮助。他指出，今年正值恒瑞医药成立 55 周年，经过多年发展，公司已逐步成长 为一家创新国际化的大型制药上市企业，连续六年跻身美国《制药经理人》杂志全球制药企业TOP50榜单。 戴洪斌还表示，登陆港股是恒瑞医药迈向国际资本市 ...

Core Viewpoint - Heng Rui Medicine officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, leading to a surge in both A-share and Hong Kong innovative drug sectors, with significant market enthusiasm reflected in stock price increases and ETF performance [1][2]. Company Performance - Heng Rui Medicine's public offering was oversubscribed by 454.85 times, with international placement achieving 17.09 times, resulting in a distribution of 21.5% for public offering and 78.5% for international placement [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 27.985 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.63%, and a net profit of 6.337 billion yuan, up 47.28% year-on-year [2]. - Innovative drug revenue reached 13.1 billion yuan, accounting for over 45% of total revenue, with expectations of 2-3 new drug approvals annually and a potential peak of 25 new drugs from 2025 to 2027 [2][3]. Strategic Insights - Heng Rui's dual-driven strategy shows significant results, with innovative drug business growing rapidly while the generic drug segment maintains stable revenue of 12.6 billion yuan through procurement optimization [3]. - The company has a diverse product matrix with 49 disclosed targets and over 40 undisclosed projects, focusing on cutting-edge fields such as oncology and immunotherapy, which may catalyze future value reassessment [3]. Market Impact - The listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is seen as a crucial step in Heng Rui's internationalization strategy, with a pipeline that includes globally competitive innovative products and significant business development achievements [2]. - The Heng Seng Biotechnology ETF (513280) saw a rise of over 2% following Heng Rui's listing, with a year-to-date increase of over 38%, outperforming other indices [1][6].

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: Heng Rui Medicine, a leading company in China's pharmaceutical industry, officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 23, 2025, raising approximately HKD 9.89 billion in net fundraising [1] - Fund allocation: About 75% of the funds will be used for R&D plans, approximately 15% for building new production and R&D facilities in China and overseas, and about 10% for working capital and other general corporate purposes [1] - Market performance: On the first day of listing, Heng Rui Medicine's stock surged over 27%, reflecting strong market interest in the Hong Kong innovative drug sector [1] Group 2 - Valuation trends: The Hong Kong innovative drug index's price-to-earnings ratio dropped from 64 times on February 21 to 27 times on May 23, indicating a significant reduction in valuation and improved cost-effectiveness for investors [1] - Market activity: On May 23, the Hong Kong stock market saw a rebound, with the innovative drug sector leading gains; notable stocks included Zhaoyan New Drug, which rose over 11%, and several others that increased by more than 6% [1] - ETF performance: The Hong Kong innovative drug ETF (159567) recorded a real-time transaction volume exceeding HKD 450 million, indicating high market enthusiasm [1] Group 3 - Investment potential: The Hong Kong innovative drug ETF (159567) tracks the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index, with a 90% weight in innovative drug companies, positioning it to benefit from trends like AI-enabled drug development and the international expansion of domestic innovative drugs [2] - Comprehensive strategy: The innovative drug ETF (159992) tracks an index that includes leading companies across the innovative drug industry chain, benefiting from various market dynamics including AI advancements and new healthcare policies [2] - Industry evolution: The domestic innovative drug sector is undergoing significant changes, with Chinese companies becoming key players in the global market, as evidenced by the increase in active innovative drugs developed by Chinese firms, totaling 3,575 by December 31, 2024 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the approval of a new innovative drug by Heng Rui Medicine, which is the first self-developed DPP-4 inhibitor combined with metformin in China, aimed at improving blood sugar control for adult patients with type 2 diabetes [1] - Following the announcement, Heng Rui Medicine's stock surged nearly 30% in the Hong Kong market, indicating strong investor confidence in the innovative drug sector [1] - The Hong Kong innovative drug index has seen a significant decrease in its price-to-earnings ratio from 64 times on February 21 to 25 times on May 22, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity in the sector [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong innovative drug ETF (159567) tracks the National Index for Hong Kong Innovative Drugs, with 90% of its weight in innovative drug companies, positioning it to benefit from trends such as AI-enabled drug development and the expansion of domestic innovative drugs [2] - The larger innovative drug ETF (159992) encompasses leading companies in the innovative drug industry chain, benefiting from advancements in AI, the internationalization of domestic innovative drugs, and the introduction of new healthcare policies [2] - According to Xingye Securities, the innovative drug sector in China is transitioning from a "follower" to a "leader," with significant advancements expected in new targets and technologies by 2025, showcasing strong global competitiveness in areas like ADC, bispecific antibodies, and cell therapy [2]

Policy Developments - The total amount of personal accounts for employee medical insurance mutual aid reached 17.792 billion yuan from January to April 2025, with 133 million participants [2] Drug and Device Approvals - The KRAS G12C inhibitor, Gozai Lese, developed by Jako and Ailis, has been approved for the treatment of adult patients with locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who have previously received at least one line of systemic therapy [3] - Heng Rui Medicine's innovative drug, Regaglitin Metformin Tablets, has been approved for use in adults with type 2 diabetes to improve blood sugar control [4] Capital Markets - Boyin Hearing announced a B-round financing of several tens of millions, aimed at increasing investment in domestic hearing aid research and development [5] - Lid Health Technology has completed nearly 100 million yuan in angel round financing, with funds allocated for accelerating technology research and product commercialization [6] Major Industry Events - Rongchang Bio plans to place 19 million new H-shares at a price of 42.44 HKD per share, raising approximately 796 million HKD for core product pipeline expansion [7] - Haoyuan Pharmaceutical announced that its shareholder, Zhenjin Investment, has reduced its holdings by approximately 3.2 million shares, accounting for 1.51% of the total share capital [8] - Baiyatai has decided to terminate the BAT3306-002 study, which evaluated the pharmacokinetics, efficacy, and safety of BAT3306 in combination with chemotherapy in IV-stage NSCLC patients, after an investment of 224 million yuan in the project [9]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Sangfor Technologies has experienced significant trading volatility, with a cumulative increase of over 100% in four consecutive trading days, raising concerns about irrational speculation and potential corrections [1][2][5]. Group 1: Stock Trading Volatility - The company's stock experienced abnormal trading fluctuations on May 21 and May 22, 2025, with a cumulative closing price deviation exceeding 30% [1][5]. - The stock's cumulative increase of over 100% from May 19 to May 22, 2025, qualifies as severe abnormal trading volatility according to Shanghai Stock Exchange regulations [1][5]. - As of May 22, 2025, the closing price was 56.69 CNY per share, with the company's rolling P/E ratio at 48.81, significantly higher than the industry average of 29.18 [2][7]. Group 2: Licensing Agreement - The company, along with its affiliates, granted Pfizer Inc. exclusive rights for the development, production, and commercialization of a dual-targeting antibody product outside mainland China [3]. - The revenue from the licensing agreement will be distributed based on prior R&D investments, with Sangfor receiving 30% and its affiliate 70% [3]. - The licensing agreement is subject to approval from the company's shareholders and relevant regulatory bodies, introducing uncertainty regarding its effectiveness [4][8]. Group 3: Company Operations and Risk Factors - The company confirmed that there are no undisclosed significant matters affecting its operations, and its business remains normal without major changes [2][6]. - The company emphasizes the uncertainty associated with new drug development, including clinical trials and regulatory approvals, which may impact the commercialization of the licensed product [4][9]. - The company urges investors to make rational decisions and be aware of the risks associated with stock price volatility and the licensing agreement [2][8].

小而美、高弹性：港股创新药ETF（159567）跟踪国证港股通创新药指数，创新药企业权重90%为全市 场医药主题类指数中最高，有望把握AI赋能创新药研发、国产创新药出海、商业健康保险逐步完善的 创新药利好浪潮。 欧美市场的高支付能力与创新药的溢价空间，构成国产创新药出海的直接动力。以百济神州的泽布替尼 为例，其美国定价约6.3万元/瓶，而国内医保定价仅为1912元/瓶，中美售价相差超30倍。2025年一季 度，泽布替尼在美国销售额达5.63亿美元，同比增长60%，印证了"闯关欧美发达市场=手握全球通行 证"的商业逻辑。 港股创新药板块高盈利持续消化估值。港股创新药指数2月21日市盈率为64倍，5月22日最新市盈率仅为 25倍，不足两个月前的一半，当前布局性价比突出。 5月22日，港股市场低开震荡，港股创新药板块开盘下跌后快速反弹。港股创新药指数成分股中，金斯 瑞生物科技涨超5%，远大医药、亚盛医药-B、荣昌生物涨超3%，东阳光长江药业、中国生物制药涨超 1%。港股创新药ETF（159567）过去10个交易日资金净流入2.5亿元，市场热度较高。 广发证券认为，港股创新药板块作为具备全球竞争力的产业之一，其出海进 ...

相关研究报告 医药生物/生物制品 三生制药（01530.HK） 2025 年 05 月 22 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/5/21 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 20.850 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 22.000/5.470 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 500.10 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 500.10 | | 总股本(亿股) | 23.99 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 23.99 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 134.69 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -80% 0% 80% 160% 240% 320% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 三生制药 恒生指数 《核心品种持续发力，多款创新药进 入收获期—港股公司首次覆盖报告》 -2025.3.27 与辉瑞就 SSGJ-707 达成授权，创新价值弹性兑现 ——港股公司信息更新报告 | 余汝意（分析师） | 余克清（分析师） | 刘艺（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | yuruyi@kysec.cn | yukeqing@kysec.cn | ...