Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the imminent rise of the Euro as a global currency, contrasting it with the declining dominance of the US dollar, largely attributed to the erratic policies of former President Trump [1][3][6]. Group 1: Euro's Rise - The Euro has reached a near eight-year high against the US dollar, surpassing the 1.14 mark, with a cumulative increase of over 9% [1]. - The Eurozone is experiencing a strategic opportunity as the dollar's credibility diminishes, allowing the Euro to potentially take on a more significant role in the global financial system [6][8]. - The European Free Trade Association has signed 31 agreements covering 75 countries, with an annual trade volume exceeding 2 trillion Euros, establishing the Euro as a stable currency for trade [6]. Group 2: Dollar's Decline - The US dollar index has dropped by 9% since January 20, marking the worst performance for a new president in the first hundred days since 1973 [3]. - The US national debt has surged from $27.7 trillion in 2020 to $36 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, consuming nearly one-fifth of federal revenue [4]. - Trump's political interference with the Federal Reserve has undermined the dollar's institutional credibility, leading to a loss of its status as a global safe-haven asset [3][4]. Group 3: Global Shift in Currency Preferences - International capital flows are increasingly favoring the Euro, with European equity funds seeing a net inflow of $34.7 billion in the first quarter of 2025, compared to $19.8 billion for the US [8]. - The share of the dollar in global reserves has decreased from over 70% to 58%, while the Euro, Chinese Yuan, and gold are emerging as key alternatives [8]. - Countries like Russia, Iran, China, and Saudi Arabia are accelerating efforts to establish non-dollar payment systems, indicating a historical peak in the desire to "de-dollarize" the global economy [8].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde highlighted that the Eurozone is facing a historic strategic window due to structural pressures on the US dollar system, which includes increased political polarization in the US, frequent adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework, and a global trust crisis stemming from geopolitical strategic contraction [3]. Group 1: Eurozone's Strategic Position - Lagarde emphasized the need for the Eurozone to leverage its institutional advantages, such as the ECB's transparent policy transmission mechanism, a robust financial regulatory framework developed through the subprime crisis, and the stability of the EU legal system, to reshape the Euro's strategic position in the international monetary system [3]. - The current capital flow dynamics are influenced by the ambiguity of the Federal Reserve's policy path and the political uncertainties surrounding the upcoming US elections, particularly the potential return of Trump, which is prompting global investors to reassess the long-term risk premium of dollar assets [3]. Group 2: Structural Reforms in the Eurozone - Two significant structural reforms are being advanced in the Eurozone: the deepening of the Capital Markets Union to facilitate cross-border investment and financing, and the innovation of common debt instruments aimed at creating a regional risk-hedging mechanism [3]. - These initiatives are expected to fundamentally enhance the Euro's status as a safe-haven currency, providing a scarce strategic resource of certainty in increasingly volatile global markets [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Euro to USD - The technical analysis indicates that the Euro to USD exchange rate is exhibiting clear range characteristics, with resistance levels concentrated around 1.1330-1.1335, and support levels at 1.1270-1.1275 and 1.1245-1.1250 [4]. - A trading strategy could involve positioning for a short near 1.1335, with a stop-loss set 40 points above the breakout, targeting the lower end of the range [4].

欧元兑美元下跌0.7%至1.1215。 ...

欧洲STOXX 600指数初步收跌0.52%，报549.42点。 欧元区STOXX 50指数初步收跌0.59%，报5383.67点。 富时泛欧绩优300指数初步收跌0.57%，报2178.20点。 ...

欧元区4月欧洲央行3年CPI预期 2.5%，预期2.50%，前值2.50%。 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the significant growth in the renewable energy sector, with investments reaching $500 billion in 2022, marking a 25% increase from the previous year [1][2][3] - Major companies in the industry are shifting focus towards sustainable practices, with 70% of firms planning to increase their renewable energy investments over the next five years [4][5] - The demand for electric vehicles (EVs) is surging, with sales projected to exceed 10 million units globally by 2025, representing a 50% increase compared to 2022 [6][7] Group 2 - The report indicates that government policies are playing a crucial role in driving the renewable energy market, with over 30 countries implementing stricter emissions regulations [8][9] - Technological advancements in battery storage are expected to reduce costs by 40% over the next three years, enhancing the viability of renewable energy sources [10][11] - The global solar energy market is anticipated to grow to $200 billion by 2025, driven by increased adoption in both residential and commercial sectors [12][13]

Group 1 - International gold prices fell below the key psychological level of $3300 per ounce, currently reported at $3304.68 per ounce, with a decline of 1.13% [1] - The highest price reached was $3349.78 per ounce, while the lowest was $3292.38 per ounce during the trading session [1] Group 2 - ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that if member governments strengthen the financial and security framework of the Eurozone, the euro could become a viable alternative to the dollar, benefiting the Eurozone significantly [2] - Lagarde emphasized the need for a deeper and more liquid capital market, stronger legal foundations, and military strength to support the euro's increased role [2] - Investors, particularly official ones, are seeking geopolitical guarantees and are inclined to invest in regions that are reliable security partners [2] Group 3 - Analyst Christian Borjon Valencia noted that the bullish trend for gold remains intact, with potential testing of last week's high of $3365 per ounce [3] - If gold prices break above $3365, the next targets would be $3400, followed by the May 7 high of $3438 and the historical high of $3500 per ounce [3] - On the bearish side, if gold prices fall below $3300, a decline to the May 20 low of $3204 and then to the 50-day simple moving average of $3199 is expected [3]

Group 1 - The Eurozone economic sentiment index and industrial sentiment index for May are set to be released shortly [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Villeroy indicated that the normalization of interest rates in the Eurozone may not be complete [1] Group 1 - Villeroy's comments suggest that further adjustments to interest rates could be necessary as the economic conditions evolve [1] - The statement reflects ongoing considerations within the ECB regarding inflation and economic stability in the Eurozone [1] - The potential for additional rate changes indicates a cautious approach to monetary policy in response to economic indicators [1]

免责声明:本图表数据来源于公众号:嘉盛集团,数据仅供参考,不作为任何投资建议。 俄乌局势持续升温发酵，西方国家取消援乌武器射程限制；伊朗声称准备好适当打击以色列；俄副总理"辟谣"欧佩克+尚未讨论 7月增产，当前美油多头占比高达76%，黄金多空依然胶着，后市情绪如何？欢迎前往"数据库-嘉盛市场晴雨表"查看并订阅（数 据每10分钟更新1次） 电话.1 7170 7 70 香港恒生指数 71% 29% 标普500指数 71% 29% 纳斯达克指数 80% 20% 道琼斯指数 39% 61% 日经225指数 59% 41% 德国DAX40指 23% 77% 数 外汇 r 多头 空头 欧元/美元 26% 74% 欧元/英镑 76% 24% 欧元/日元 70% 30% 欧元/澳元 49% 51% 英镑/美元 20% 80% 英镑/日元 52% 48% 美元/日元 44% 56% 美元/加元 73% 27% 美元/瑞郎 90% 10% 澳元/美元 43% 57% 澳元/日元 31% 69% 加元/日元 36% 64% 纽元/美元 54% 46% 纽元/日元 55% 45% 美元/离岸人 82% 18% 民币 ...