| 行业类 V | 当前价 ◆ | 涨跌幅 ÷ | 成交量 * | | 总市值 = 年初至今 = | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全球航空业E ... | 21.09 | +0.28 (+1.35%) | 73832股 | 6643.35万 | -16.80% | " " | | US JETS | | | | | | | | 银行业ETF - ... | 52.25 | +0.57 (+1.10%) | 86539 H | 40.44 乙 | -5.13% | == | | us KBE | | | | | | | | 区域银行ET ... | 56.03 | +0.57 (+1.03%) | 96.12万股 | 46.76 Z | -6.54% | n … | | us KRE | | | | | | | | 可选消费ET ... | 198.99 | +1.44 (+0.73%) | 18.66万股 | 249.94亿 | -11.06% | === | | us XLY | | | | | | | | 金融业ETF --- | 4 ...

Group 1 - Optimism surrounding trade negotiations has helped the S&P 500 index recover losses since Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, but the market has little room to absorb potential disappointing outcomes from these negotiations [1] - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. was raised from approximately 5% to about 25%, marking the highest level in over a century, according to J.P. Morgan Wealth Management [1][3] - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant drop of nearly 19% from its historical high of 6144.15 points on February 19 to a low of 4982.77 points by April 8, before rebounding strongly on the day Trump announced a pause on some tariffs [3][5] Group 2 - High-profile investors, such as Paul Tudor Jones, have expressed concerns that even if tariffs are reduced to around 40% or 50%, the stock market may still reach new lows due to the economic drag from high tariffs [3] - Goldman Sachs economists believe that a preliminary trade agreement between the U.S. and some countries may be reached soon, which could influence market sentiment positively [2] - Concerns about the potential economic damage from tariffs are growing, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates to support the market [3][7] Group 3 - Emily Bowersock Hill, managing $850 million in assets, noted that the Kansas Public Employees Retirement System has hedged currency risks and maintains a balanced portfolio between U.S. and international stocks [4] - Historical data from Goldman Sachs indicates that larger market rebounds have not necessarily marked the bottom of bear markets, suggesting caution for investors [6] - Peter Oppenheimer from Goldman Sachs highlighted that while investor expectations for trade agreements have increased, the details may be complex and could lead to prolonged uncertainty [7]

美股盘前，超微电脑跌约4%，公司再次下调全年销售预期，承认会遭受特朗普关税的冲击。AMD涨约 2%，公司一季度营收超预期，二季度营收指引也超预期。诺和诺德涨约6%，摩根大通分析师指出诺和 诺德下调今年业绩指引的决定已经反映在股价中。 ...

黄金暴涨30%对标美股崩盘！标普500真会跌到与金价1:1？分析师称，原油的低价或在每桶X美元左 右，而黄金的下一个阻力位在.....点击阅读。 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Key Points - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in May, with a 95% probability of no change, due to the resilience of the US economy and limited impact from tariffs on employment and inflation [1] - Current economic data shows signs of moderate weakening but no recession indicators, with significant layoffs in April not reflected in non-farm payroll data and strong PMI figures [1] - The focus will be on how Fed Chair Powell assesses the economic situation during the press conference, as any slowdown in employment and consumption could lead to recession risks [1] Outlook - The relationship between the White House and the Federal Reserve has eased, increasing the likelihood of the Fed sending positive signals [2] - Following strong non-farm payroll and PMI data, expectations for rate cuts have been delayed, and the Fed may have more room to stabilize market and economic expectations [2] - The upcoming FOMC meeting aims to provide a relatively positive signal to maintain market recovery since late April, reducing the potential for future interference from the Trump administration [2] Market Impact - The Fed's positive signals could lead to an increase in the probability of rate cuts if economic data weakens in the future [2] - The 10-year US Treasury yield and short-term rates are expected to trend downward, with US stocks entering a consolidation phase after volatility decreases [2] - It is suggested to gradually invest in US stocks, particularly in small-cap growth sectors, which may have greater upside potential compared to large-cap indices like the Dow and Nasdaq [2]

美股三大股指期货高开0.3%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，亿万富翁对冲基金经理保罗·都铎·琼斯(Paul Tudor Jones)周二表示，即使美国总统特 朗普放缓对中国的关税政策，股市仍可能创下新低。 他表示："对我来说，这很明确。特朗普坚定不移地推进关税政策，而美联储又坚定不移地不降息。对 股市而言，这可不是好消息。"他进一步指出："即便特朗普把对中国的关税力度降到50%，我们大概率 还是会跌到新低。" 琼斯的悲观言论正值全球市场高度动荡之际。上个月，特朗普宣布对中国进口商品征收自上世纪60年代 以来最高的关税，引发市场剧烈震荡。标普500指数一度大幅下挫，近期有所反弹，但仍较历史高点低 8%左右。 今年以来，美国对中国进口商品的关税已累计提升至145%，中国则反击性地对美国产品征收了125%的 报复性关税。 琼斯指出："特朗普或许会把关税降到50%甚至40%，但即便如此，这仍是自上世纪60年代以来最大规 模的税收增加。由此可以预期，美国经济增速将削弱2%到3%。" 作为都铎投资公司的创始人兼首席投资官，琼斯认为，在宏观经济环境持续恶化的背景下，股市尚未触 底。他指出，美联储自去年12月以来一直将联邦基金利率维持在4.25%至4.5%的区间。 ...

美股三大指数集体低开， 道指跌0.83%， 纳指跌1.17%， 标普500指数跌0.91%。派拉蒙环球跌5%， 特 斯拉、 英伟达跌超2%。 ...

在市场不利因素方面，多数市场人士仍预期美国经济将陷入衰退，投资者对无风险资产的传统认知正在受到挑战，而美联 储短期内似乎不会改变现有政策立场。然而，积极因素也同样明显：尽管美国经济明显失去动能，但就业市场保持稳定； 关税相关的不确定性虽未完全消除，但整体趋势正朝缓和方向发展；市场技术面已转为有利状态，美国科技公司持续展现 强劲表现。 Pasquariello具体分析了几个关键支撑因素：首先，在资金流向方面，市场技术面改善吸引了此前减仓的"加杠杆投资者"回 归，量化基金和系统性资金重新进场。美国家庭投资者虽热情减退，但未转为净卖家。其次，就科技股表现而言，尽管"爆 炸性超预期"的时代可能已过，但苹果、微软、英伟达等科技巨头仍是全球资本回报较为强劲的企业。再次，美国经济增长 方面，财政赤字同比增长7%的事实表明，政府仍在通过适度扩张性财政政策支撑经济，这解释了为何就业和消费等"硬数 据"尚未出现明显下滑。第四，关税问题虽未出现新的实质性进展，但Pasquariello认为最极端的关税政策已过去，经济摩擦 虽不会立即消失，但市场预期正在调整，可能出现"贸易框架协议"与经济动能减弱并存的局面。 Pasquariell ...

美股期货跌幅扩大，纳斯达克100指数期货现跌超0.9%，标普500指数期货跌0.8%，道指期货跌近 0.7%。 ...