更多精彩文章：A股市场共振性减弱 铂钯投资是押注东升西降 5月21日，美国财政部拍卖160亿美元的20年期国债。本次拍卖的最终得标利率为5.047%，这也是20年期美债拍卖收益率有记录以来第二次突破5%大关。 美债滚雪球+特朗普减税计划+特朗普关税政策不稳定+美债6月兑付高峰+美债评级被下调+大国博弈等因素，导致做多美债收益率的期权大规模攀升，美债 再遭市场集中抛售，并导致美国市场遭遇股债汇三杀，美国的金融风险再次抬升。 目前美国股债汇三个市场已经很难平衡了，如果美债市场继续承压，不仅股市风险会明显提高，且债务风险化问题将更加严重，将快速向经济传导，影响经 济增速与就业，负反馈将笼罩美国经济将。 美国私人债务公共化--美国公共债务国际化之路已经走进死胡同，走到了一个极端，事实证明这条路是走不通的，美国向中国等国家长期转嫁债务危机的计 划必然迎来反噬，只有悬崖勒马，找出自身问题所在才能缓解美国危机，但这非常艰难，因为美国的犹太资本有失控趋势，所以美债将迎来大考，若考试不 及格，美元将会跌落国际母货币地位。（本文系馨月说财经原创文章，转载请注明作者及来源于新浪微博头条文章） 美债承压如果倒逼美联储降息的话，美债与 ...

日期 2025 年 5 月 22 日 行业 贵金属日评 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美联储官员发表美国经济悲观预期言论打压美元指数再次跌破 100 关口，媒 体报告以色列准备袭击伊朗核设施而地缘政治担忧重新升温，计价货币因素与避 险需求推动伦敦黄金回到 3300 美元/盎司上方，初步验证伦敦黄金在 3133-3200 美元/盎司的支撑力度；因中美贸易形势边际缓和引发的乐观情绪减退，近期白银 走势落后黄金而伦敦金银比值重返 100 上方。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局 进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金 ...

新加坡贸易部官员：可能会出现技术性衰退，但不一定会出现全面衰退。 ...

美国银行警告称：墨西哥面临经济衰退风险，意味着比索（汇率）被高估。 ...

市场洞察 - Marquee --- Market Insights - Marquee Market Insights 市场洞察 Ruminations - Macro, Micro, Markets 沉思录 - 宏观、微观、市场 what was the fuss about. 究竟有什么⼤惊⼩怪的 。 Here we are , not even 5 months into the year, and we have seen the full spectrum of animal spirit ai and deregulation fuelled euphoric hope as well as tariff driven growth shock recession and end of globalisation fear. One one hand we are back where we started, on the other hand everything has changed. 现在才刚过不到五个⽉，我们已经经历了由动物精神、⼈⼯智能和放松监管推动的狂热希望，也经历了关 税引发的增 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's economy is showing unexpected resilience, with signs of stabilization in first and second-tier cities, while third and fourth-tier cities are facing prolonged adjustment periods due to high inventory and insufficient demand [2][3] - New housing sales and construction indicators are expected to decline year-on-year in 2025, but are projected to bottom out and stabilize in 2026 [2] - The policy focus on stabilizing the real estate market requires a balance between short-term relief and long-term transformation, with new initiatives like affordable housing and urban village renovations being crucial to offset the decline in commodity housing [2][3] Group 2 - The risks in China's real estate sector differ fundamentally from Japan's "balance sheet recession," as the impact on households is milder compared to the significant exposure of Japanese companies to real estate [3] - Consumption and investment are expected to improve due to policy initiatives, with the scale of trade-in programs doubling from 150 billion to 300 billion, indicating a shift from policy statements to actionable measures [3] - The central government's fiscal expansion is a key feature of the second half of the policy agenda, contrasting with last year's focus on hidden debt replacement and bank recapitalization [3] Group 3 - The monetary policy faces challenges in balancing "stable exchange rates" and "broad credit," with the reserve requirement ratio at 6.4% and limited room for interest rate cuts, although 1-2 rate cuts are still anticipated this year [3] - The RMB exchange rate is stabilizing due to eased tariff risks, with expectations of it trading in the 7.2-7.3 range against the USD over the next 6-12 months, making exporters' currency settlement intentions a key variable [3] - Short-term growth stabilization still relies on investment, as consumption stimulus must address two main bottlenecks: slowing income growth and weakened employment expectations, alongside the diminishing wealth effect from real estate [4]

Geopolitical Tensions - The geopolitical situation is tense in multiple regions, particularly in the Middle East where negotiations between Israel and Hamas have stalled, and there are reports of Israel potentially preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities [2] - In Europe, the EU has approved the 17th round of sanctions against Russia, and the UK has introduced over 100 new sanctions, including the suspension of free trade agreement negotiations with Israel [2] - The complex geopolitical landscape has significantly increased market uncertainty, providing strong support for gold prices [2] Economic Outlook - High uncertainty is causing households and businesses to pause spending and investment, which may lead to a significant slowdown in economic growth [2] - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, with expectations of at least two rate cuts by the end of 2025, each by 25 basis points [2] Credit Rating Impact - The downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1 has led to a significant drop in U.S. stock markets, with the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.5% and the 30-year yield exceeding 5% [3] - These economic instabilities are prompting investors to seek channels for asset preservation and appreciation, highlighting the safe-haven function of gold [3] Trading Strategies - For spot gold, a buy position is recommended if it stabilizes at 3245.00, with a target of 3275.00 [4] - For spot silver, a sell position is suggested if it stabilizes at 32.700, with a target of 32.900 [6]

据最新消息，美国总统特朗普当地时间20日宣布，将投资1750亿美元打造"金穹"导弹防御系统。特朗普 称，他已为这套导弹防御系统选定了一个设计方案，并将任命美国太空军高级将领迈克尔·格特莱领导"金 穹"项目。 不过，就在特朗普"大显身手"的同时，他支持率却下降了。路透/益普索最新民调显示，本周美国总统特朗普 的支持率略微下降至42%，追平新任期最低水平。 另据新华社援引美国媒体报道，美国国务卿鲁比奥20日在国会参议院一场听证会上称，特朗普不会于今年晚些 时候赴南非参加二十国集团领导人会议，因为南非一贯与美国政策不一致。 千亿美元打造导弹防御系统 据央视新闻消息，当地时间5月20日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国曾帮助以色列建立导弹防御系统，美国系统 的技术将比以色列更先进。特朗普称，国会法案将包括250亿美元的"金穹"建设资金，总成本将高达1750亿美 元。 特朗普称，已选定"金穹"防御系统架构，将包含天基拦截器。特朗普表示，"金穹"防御系统的设计将与美国现 有的防御能力相结合，并有望在特朗普任期结束前全面投入使用。因此，美国将在大约三年内完成。 据路透社报道，特朗普宣称，该项目将在2029年1月，也就是他的这一任期 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】随着"关税""不确定性""衰退"等词在一季度财报电话会议中高频出现，本周将公布财报的一批美 国零售企业，将进一步揭示关税背景变化对经济的影响。 此前，中美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦取得重要成果，缓解了外界对特朗普关税致经济衰退的担忧。然而，特朗普与沃尔 玛在涨价问题上交锋后，零售商处境更受关注。 消费者支出作为美国经济活动重要晴雨表，出现放缓迹象。最新数据显示，因关税担忧提前购买的提振作用减弱，美国4月 零售销售增长大幅放缓至0.1%，远低于3月1.7%的两年最快涨幅。华尔街认为，贸易战平息前，消费者支出或持续不稳， 增加经济滞涨甚至衰退风险。4月支出放缓表明，美国家庭面对关税影响价格与经济时态度谨慎。券商Raymond James首席 经济学家阿尔曼称，消费者愈发挑剔，谨慎选择消费与削减开支。 行业统计显示，美国关税仍高于数十年水平，更贵的进口价格或使买家却步。经纪商Global X投资策略主管Scott Helfstein 表示，消费者仍在消费，但难比去年盛况。密歇根大学最新调查显示，美国消费者信心指数连续第五个月下跌，从上月 52.2降至50.8。分项指标显示，因担心收入下降，个人财 ...

方正证券则表示，当前黄金价格本身已经处于较高位，同时近期随着美国发起的贸易战等外部事件暂缓，短期内可能引 发部分投资者高位获利了结或央行放缓黄金购买节奏，进而引发黄金价格出现阶段性回调。但从中长期角度看，美元信 用下降、美联储降息周期开启、全球央行持续增加购金的背景下，黄金在短期调整后有望继续维持长期上行趋势。 5月12日，花旗发布报告，将未来三个月黄金目标价从每盎司3500美元大幅下调至3150美元，降幅高达10%。 此外，花旗对短期金价走势给出了明确区间预测：预计未来一段时间黄金价格将在每盎司3000—3300美元区间内震荡整 理。这一预测区间较此前明显收窄，反映出在当前复杂多变的市场环境下，黄金价格波动将趋于理性化。 黄金价格再度飙涨。5月21日上午9点左右，现货黄金上破3300美元/盎司大关，为5月9日以来首次。随后价格有所回 落，截至智通财经发稿，现货黄金报3292.59美元/盎司。 分析人士认为，地缘冲突升温，叠加美国一季度GDP负增长，避险需求提升，带动金价反弹。 自5月19日以来，现货黄金有所上涨。而在"五一"前，创下历史新高的国际金价曾迎来明显回调。5月7日以来，伦敦现 货黄金价格从约343 ...