Group 1 - U.S. Treasury prices experienced a slight decline ahead of the issuance of 30-year bonds and employment data, leading to the largest weekly gain being narrowed [1] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 1 basis point to 4.34%, recovering slightly from a 7 basis point drop due to strong demand for bond issuance [1] - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue $22 billion in 30-year bonds, contributing to a slight increase in long-term bond yields [1] Group 2 - Investors are focusing on fiscal policy, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that the recent tax reform will increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade [1] - The borrowing costs for the UK government have also risen due to concerns about the need to issue more bonds to cover expenditures [1] - In Japan, bond yields surged by 20 basis points earlier in the week amid fears that politicians would loosen fiscal policy to gain voter support ahead of elections [1] Group 3 - Upcoming U.S. employment data is a key focus, with economists predicting a slight increase in initial jobless claims to 235,000 for the week ending July 5 [2] - Weekly initial jobless claims are seen as crucial for understanding the Federal Reserve's future policy direction [2] - Swap trading indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates this month and potentially lower them twice by 25 basis points each before the end of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal policy for 2025 is characterized by increased counter-cyclical adjustments, significant enhancement in fiscal spending, and proactive policy implementation, which is expected to support China's economic growth target of around 5% [2][3][5]. Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 has historically exceeded 4%, with a total fiscal deficit of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from 2024 [5][6]. - The issuance of special bonds has been raised to 4.4 trillion yuan, with an increase of 500 billion yuan compared to 2024, aimed at addressing local government debt and stimulating investment [4][6]. Economic Context - The global economic recovery remains weak, and external pressures such as tariffs and trade disturbances from the U.S. are affecting demand. The internal demand is also struggling to recover fully, necessitating a robust fiscal response [3][4]. - The central economic work conference at the end of 2024 emphasized the need for a more proactive fiscal policy to ensure sustained economic growth amidst these challenges [3]. Budgetary Allocations - The budget growth rates for general public revenue and expenditure in 2025 are projected at 0.1% and 4.4%, respectively, reflecting ongoing fiscal pressures and the need to expand domestic demand [5]. - Expenditure on health, education, and social security has increased, with a total share of 37.1% in the budget, indicating a focus on social welfare [5]. Special Bonds and Debt Management - The issuance of ultra-long special bonds has increased to 1.3 trillion yuan, with allocations for major national strategies and consumer goods replacement programs, enhancing both short-term demand and long-term sustainability [6]. - The new special bond issuance allows for the acquisition of existing housing for affordable housing projects and debt management, which helps alleviate liquidity pressures on real estate companies and supports small businesses [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold market is expected to experience high - level oscillations in the short term and is a strategic long - term allocation due to multiple uncertainties and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing [1][3]. - Silver will have strong oscillations, with support around 8700, influenced by the price sentiment of base metals and gold [1]. - Copper is under pressure in the short term, but the long - term outlook remains positive. After a full correction, it is advisable to try long positions with a light position [1][6]. - Zinc will oscillate in the short term, and in the long run, it has an increasing supply and weak demand, so opportunities to short on rallies should be grasped [1][9]. - Lead and tin prices are under pressure to rebound due to increased supply and insufficient demand [1]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound as downstream consumption enters the off - season and inventory accumulates [1][11]. - Nickel prices are under pressure to fall due to supply - demand imbalance and inventory accumulation [1][13]. - Industrial silicon will rebound, and polysilicon will have high - level oscillations in the short term but is in a state of over - supply in the long term [1]. - Lithium carbonate is under pressure to rebound, and it is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the 65,000 pressure level [1][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Information**: SHFE gold decreased by 1.21% to 766.82, COMEX gold increased by 0.35% to 3323. SHFE silver decreased by 0.60% to 8899, COMEX silver decreased by 0.87% to 37. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.61% to 86.17 [2]. - **Logic**: The Fed's attitude is unclear, Trump's second - wave high - tariff policy is in place, and New Zealand did not cut interest rates as expected. Tariff uncertainties and the long - term trend of global order reshaping and double - easing support the long - bull logic of gold [3]. - **Strategy**: Gold can be considered for long - term investment when the opportunity arises as it has strong support around 760. Silver will have range oscillations with strong support around 8700 [4]. Copper - **Market Information**: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 78330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74%. The trading volume increased by 165%, and the position decreased by 6%. Global copper visible inventory is at a historically low level [5]. - **Logic**: The supply of copper concentrate remains tight, but the production of electrolytic copper has increased significantly. The high copper price suppresses demand, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [5]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, there is intense long - short game. After a full correction, try long positions with a light position. In the long term, be confident in the upward trend of copper prices. The range of SHFE copper is [77800, 79800], and that of LME copper is [9600, 9800] dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22220 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63%. Domestic inventory has slightly increased, and the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is 56.48%, lower than the same period in previous years [8]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc ore is abundant, and the TC continues to rebound. The demand for galvanized steel is affected by the weak steel demand and overseas anti - dumping [8]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see in the short term. In the long run, short on rallies. The range of SHFE zinc is [21800, 22500], and that of LME zinc is [2700, 2800] dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The closing price of LME aluminum was 2583 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.23%, and that of SHFE aluminum main contract was 20515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05%. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased [10]. - **Logic**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, and the downstream consumption is weak. The supply of alumina is expected to be loose in the short term [11]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for SHFE aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. Alumina will operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The closing price of LME nickel was 14990 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.93%, and that of SHFE nickel main contract was 120370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The inventory of pure nickel has accumulated [12]. - **Logic**: The supply - demand imbalance of nickel persists, and the consumption of stainless steel is in the off - season, although the inventory has decreased slightly due to production cuts [13]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the production cut trend of stainless steel. The range of nickel main contract is [118000, 122000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The main contract LC2509 of lithium carbonate decreased its position by over 10,000 lots, opening low and closing high. The total inventory continues to reach new highs [14]. - **Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction has not been resolved. The demand shows an off - season non - off - season phenomenon, but the supply increase is in line with expectations [14]. - **Strategy**: It will have high - level oscillations in the short term, paying attention to the 65,000 pressure level [15].

Group 1: Core Logic Supporting Gold Prices - The increasing fiscal situation in the U.S. is a fundamental factor supporting gold prices, with the potential addition of $3.4 trillion in debt over the next decade due to the "Build Back Better" plan, and a debt ceiling increase of $5 trillion, exacerbating the current $36.2 trillion debt level [3][6] - The dual accumulation of fiscal and political risks has triggered a global capital reallocation, influenced by the rising political atmosphere following Musk's announcement of forming the "American Party" [3][6] Group 2: Trade Frictions and Policy Volatility - Trump's trade policies, including a recent 50% tariff on copper imports, have stirred market sentiment and raised concerns about global economic slowdown, leading to increased inflows of safe-haven funds into the gold market [7][9] - The uncertainty in trade policies is impacting consumer confidence and business investment, prompting a reallocation of global capital away from U.S. assets towards gold as an alternative safe-haven [9] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policies and Interest Rate Dynamics - The traditional inverse relationship between interest rates and gold prices is being restructured, as gold prices have risen despite actual U.S. interest rates exceeding 2% [10][13] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's potential shift in policy, including possible interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns, are contributing to the current dynamics where both gold and interest rates may rise simultaneously [10][13] Group 4: Central Bank Gold Purchases and Market Structure - Continuous gold purchases by central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are becoming a significant support for gold prices, driven by motives such as diversification of foreign exchange reserves and hedging against geopolitical risks [13] - The shift in demand from private investors to official institutions marks a structural change in the gold market, reflecting a trend of "de-dollarization" in response to U.S. fiscal deficits [13] Group 5: Short-term Volatility and Long-term Trends - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by technical and sentiment factors, with current prices nearing key resistance levels around $3,335 per ounce [14] - Long-term drivers for gold remain rooted in structural uncertainties in the global economy and politics, including ongoing U.S. fiscal deficits and fluctuating trade policies, reinforcing gold's role as a "backup safe-haven asset" [17]

在全球金融市场聚焦于美国与其贸易伙伴之间不断升温的谈判局势之际，黄金价格在周三表现出罕见的 韧性。尽管美元指数持续高企，给贵金属市场带来抑制作用，但黄金仍小幅走高，现货金交投于每盎司 3318美元附近，反映出避险资金仍在悄然流入。这种表现不禁引发一个疑问：美元强势的背景下，黄金 缘何没有进一步下挫？ DLSMARKETS从当前局势看，黄金之所以没有被美元的压力完全压制，背后是多重情绪交织的结果。 一方面，美国总统特朗普再度向七个主要贸易伙伴发出关税信函，强化"8月1日关税生效"这一时间表， 使得全球贸易紧张氛围再度升温。尽管市场已部分"习惯"其反复横跳的谈判策略，但多国表态强硬，尤 其是巴西明确提出将依据本国法律对美关税行为进行报复，贸易摩擦的反复和加剧始终为避险情绪提供 支撑。此时，即便美元走强，黄金作为对冲工具的吸引力也并未完全丧失。 另一方面，美联储会议纪要虽未明确释放降息信号，但从措辞来看，仍保留了政策灵活性的空间。特别 是在关税政策或对中长期通胀构成扰动的背景下，部分官员已提出预期内的风险情景，这使得市场对未 来政策路径的分歧再度扩大。不少资金因此更愿意通过增配黄金来防范政策误判或滞后所带来的资产波 ...

Group 1 - The company's stock closed at 26.71 yuan, up 2.85%, with a rolling PE ratio of 130.33, marking a new low in 12 days, and a total market value of 9.425 billion yuan [1] - The average PE ratio for the software development industry is 117.72, with a median of 85.00, placing the company at 153rd in the industry ranking [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the company had 24,754 shareholders, an increase of 2,044 from the previous count, with an average holding value of 352,800 yuan and an average holding of 27,600 shares per shareholder [1] Group 2 - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 86.5372 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.20%, and a net loss of approximately 45.735 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 235.94%, with a gross profit margin of 47.22% [2] - The company holds 4 invention patents and 23 software copyright registrations, and has obtained various certifications, maintaining a technological lead in the industry [1] - The company participated in the 2024 National Smart Medical Insurance Competition, winning third place for its application based on blockchain and privacy computing for medical insurance data security, and received an excellence award for its blockchain application case for national medical insurance electronic invoices [1]

本报告来源于"慧博投研",请勿外传! 宏观经济|专题报告 "大美丽法案"市场冲击或有限 海外机记 20250707 研究结论 风险提示 经济基本面不确定性。政策不确定性。地缘政治形势走向的不确定性。 | | Alley John A | | --- | --- | | 20250707 | 王仲尧 | | 证券分析师 | | | --- | --- | | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | | wangzhongvao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号: S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会跑昭:BQJ932 | | 吴泽青 | wuzeging@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860524100001 | | 孙舍霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号: S0860515070001 | | 曹靖俯 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | ...

Core Insights - Johannesburg is set to host the G20 summit in November 2025, marking the first time an African nation will lead this event, enhancing its global city status [1] - The 2024/25 Integrated Development Plan (IDP) outlines 11 strategic priorities aimed at transforming Johannesburg into a world-class African city by 2040 [1][3] Strategic Priorities - **Fiscal Sustainability**: Ensuring long-term financial stability to provide essential services and fund key initiatives [3][5] - **Sustainable Energy Structure**: Diversifying energy sources and investing in renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies [6] - **Infrastructure Development and Renewal**: Addressing spatial imbalances and enhancing urban planning to improve living conditions [7] - **Sustainable Service Provision**: Aiming for high-quality services for all residents while addressing challenges in infrastructure and resource management [8] - **Good Governance**: Fostering effective administration, accountability, and citizen participation in governance [9] - **Job Creation**: Establishing urban development zones and public works programs to combat unemployment [11] - **Safety in the City**: Enhancing security measures to protect citizens from crime and natural disasters [12] - **Active Citizenship**: Encouraging citizen involvement in urban planning and decision-making processes [13] - **Economic Growth**: Focusing on targeted interventions to address unemployment, poverty, and inequality [14] - **Green Economy**: Implementing environmental policies to balance development needs with ecological preservation [15] - **Smart City Initiatives**: Utilizing technology to improve urban services, governance, and overall city resilience [16][17] Recommendations for Chinese Cities - Strengthening stakeholder participation in urban planning processes to enhance collaborative efforts [18] - Developing international relations planning to boost regional and global leadership roles [19] - Increasing cooperation with global southern cities in development planning to foster sustainable urban growth [21][22]

M&G Investments政府债券和宏观固定收益投资经理Robert Burrows表示，市场再度沉浸在"希望"之中。 尽管劳动力市场依旧强劲，通胀持续黏性，经济也未见明显疲软，但市场对降息的押注却卷土重来。美 联储可能仍在强调"高利率维持更久"，但投资者却似乎不以为然。 为什么在数据指向不同方向时，市场仍如此确信降息即将到来？Burrows表示，从基础数据来看，美国 经济仍在"反重力"运行： 尽管关税已大幅下调，但净有效关税已从约2%增至12%，其影响尚未完全显现。 然而，期货市场仍在推测到2026年底可能降息150个基点。有的投资者可能会因此认为衰退迫在眉睫， 但数据根本不支持这一点。目前没有明确且紧迫的危险需要立即放松货币政策。似乎市场中正在出现一 种不对称现象。 需要指出的是，关税这一巨大变化的影响将同时作用于未来的通胀和经济增长，使情况更加复杂，也让 美联储的工作更具挑战性。 上，一些有希望的候选人已经在"擦亮"他们的简历，并呼吁降息，尽管数据并不支持，这无疑提 升了他们在特朗普眼中的地位。 尽管美联储在理论上保持独立，但经济现实正将其逼入困境。当通胀是"罪魁祸首"时，加息在政治上是 可行的，但 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/10 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/07/03 110 1459 81550 24103 -1000.59 26.46 30.0 49.0 87.61 94325 31900 2025/07/04 105 1223 84589 22307 -974.44 138.45 30.0 52.0 95.35 95275 33950 2025/07/07 100 1001 84589 21682 -1002.36 174.64 29.0 63.0 79.80 97400 36875 2025/07/08 80 1048 84589 19109 -844.96 44.77 29.0 63.0 51.31 102500 37100 2025/07/09 60 502 84589 21336 -437.33 412.81 40.0 65.0 22.37 107125 38250 变化 -20 -546 0 ...