Group 1 - The U.S. has announced the "most severe" secondary sanctions on Iranian oil, targeting all countries and companies engaged in energy transactions with Tehran, effectively creating a "choose one" dilemma for global oil trade [1] - The sanctions aim to cut off Iran's annual oil revenue of $60 billion, which is intended to disrupt its nuclear program and military expansion while reshaping global energy pricing power [1] - The sanctions could lead to a global oil supply gap of 1.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to three days' demand from all European refineries [1] Group 2 - Iran is responding by establishing an "energy eastern corridor" through Russia and deepening trade mechanisms with India and Pakistan, with non-dollar trade accounting for 78% of its transactions in the first four months of the year [3] - The sanctions are pushing the global energy market towards fragmentation, with potential diesel supply shortages in Europe and energy poverty crises in developing Asian countries if sanctions persist [3] - Historical evidence suggests that unilateral sanctions often escalate conflicts rather than resolve issues, indicating that cooperation based on mutual benefit is essential for peace and stability [3]

美债市场"输血管"断裂的危机已迫在眉睫。当前，30%的29万亿美元美债由外国投资者持有，相当于在美国金融心脏上插着一根随时可能被拔掉的输血 管。波士顿联储前掌门人Eric Rosengren的警告正在应验：当日本央行持续减持美债、沙特主权基金转投黄金、欧洲央行将黄金储备占比提升至18%，美 元作为全球储备货币的根基正被持续抽空。更致命的是，美国30年期房贷利率仍维持在3%的历史低位，这一"金融永动机"的运转完全依赖外国资本输 血，而如今，这个资金池正以每周百亿美元的速度干涸。 当特朗普时期"抽风式"关税政策余波未散，美债市场正以更猛烈的抛售潮宣告美元霸权时代的结构性裂痕。日本私人投资者单周狂抛175亿美元美债，创 下2024年美国大选后最大撤资规模；4月美债拍卖会上，外国买家席位空置率突破50%，创十年来最冷清纪录。这场始于财政失信、终于信任崩塌的金融 风暴，正将美国经济拖向"金融末日"的边缘。 美联储货币政策反复横跳，则成为压垮信任的最后一根稻草。从2022年暴力加息525基点抗通胀，到2024年突然转向降息预期保增长，美联储政策独立性 遭受空前质疑。日本央行行长植田和男公开批评"美联储朝令夕改破坏全球金融 ...

美国面临债务违约，中国抛售大量美债，美元霸权是否就此倒下？ 国庆佳节，14亿中国人都在为祖国庆祝生日。而大洋彼岸的美国政府即将面临关门危机。原来美国债务上限即将在10月份到期，美国财政部长多次提醒国会 尽快采取措施应对，否则美国将面临债务违约问题。 而每在如此动荡之时，中国方面正在大量抛售美国债券，这是否意味着美元体系就此倒下？中国如果抛售手上所有美债，美国是否会遭受严重打击？今天就 让我们来一起走进美债。 先来看一看一份关于中国美债的数据，截止到2021年7月份，中国持有美债1.0683万亿美元。从3月份到6月份，中国4个月内累计减持423亿美元。此前24个 月中国已经连续抛售累计1,753亿美债。不难看出中国在近两年的时间中都在国际市场上不断抛售自己的美债，而这一切的目的都是为了去美元化，在如今 金融环境动荡的情况下，中国需要减少自己的美债储备，增加本国央行的黄金储备。以保证国民经济在面临大动荡时依旧可以保持稳定，避免被其他国家收 割财富。 从另一方面来看，中国抛售美债的时间要早于新冠疫情爆发。在新冠疫情爆发之后，全球市场受到强烈震动，美国为了缓解压力。开始了印钞放水的措施， 而这样的行为也让中国对美元的 ...

5月3日，被誉为"投资界春晚"的伯克希尔年度股东大会召开。 今年，巴菲特就将年满95岁，这也是他执掌公司的第60个年头。聚焦这场股东大会，凤凰"K说联盟"成 员、国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员邵宇，凤凰"K说联盟"成员、中航基金副总经理兼首席投资 官邓海清，国泰海通证券首席宏观分析师梁中华，在直播中展开了对谈，解密巴菲特的现金部署与接班 布局，对时下热门的关税战、黄金热也进行了探讨。 01 美股还没到巴菲特抄底的心理价位？ 在2024年，巴菲特大幅削减美股持仓，转而持有更多现金，再次精准逃顶。在去年年底，伯克希尔公司 的现金储备超过3300亿美元，创历史新高。在当下变幻的时局中，巴菲特的态度具有"风向标的作用"， 外界关注着他将如何分配手上的巨额现金。 在邵宇看来，巴菲特的下一步动作，还会继续观望，等待全球经贸变局告一段落，大局有一些轮廓后再 进行操作。同时，巴菲特可能会关注新兴市场资产配置的机会，例如中国和拉丁美洲这些具有"性价 比"的资产。此外，他特地提到，巴菲特的处境相对特殊，作为美国投资人，很难做空自己的国家，这 让他处于矛盾的境地，以致于出现了现金囤积。 邓海清则指出，美股估值在去年已创历史新高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant shift in the perception and demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, highlighting a trend of selling off these assets by major investors, including Japan and Europe, amid rising interest rates and economic uncertainty [2][4][5]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds - U.S. Treasury bonds are losing their status as a safe haven, with major investors like Japan rapidly selling off their holdings, with reports indicating Japan is offloading $1.4 million per minute [5][10]. - The recent auction of U.S. Treasury bonds saw a 23% failure rate, indicating a lack of demand that was previously common [10]. - The U.S. Treasury is considering a controversial plan to replace existing bonds with 100-year "zombie bonds," which could exacerbate the financial situation [12][14]. Group 2: Market Reactions - There is a notable shift in investment strategies, with a recommendation to sell U.S. stocks and buy gold as a safer alternative [2][4]. - Recent capital flows show an outflow of $800 million from U.S. stocks and an inflow of $3.3 billion into gold, indicating a preference for tangible assets over U.S. dollar-denominated assets [5]. - The volatility in the market has led to algorithmic trading systems failing as 10-year Treasury yields surpassed 5% [7]. Group 3: Global Economic Implications - The article suggests that the U.S. is facing a credibility crisis, with even allies like Japan questioning the value of holding U.S. debt [9][14]. - China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds have reached a 15-year low, while its gold reserves are increasing, reflecting a strategic shift away from U.S. debt [7][12]. - The ongoing economic strategies and tariffs imposed by the U.S. are backfiring, leading to a loss of confidence in U.S. financial instruments [9][16].

本文叙述皆有官方信源，为了读者有更好的体验放在了文章后缀，感谢您的支持！ 就在中美贸易战还没有正式迎来最终结局之际，美国特朗普政府的目光已经瞄准了另一个目标，并且由 此带来的威胁和麻烦对于我国来说，恐怕要比此次美国蛮横发起的关税大战更为麻烦。 要知道美国白宫内阁的"国务卿"一职虽然听起来像是个对内负责的岗位，但实际上因为多年以来奉行霸 权主义的美国都以世界警察自居。连带国务卿这个职务，也变成了美国进行长臂管辖和外交事务的最高 行政长官，专门负责处理各种对外政策。 倘若美国特朗普政府此次真的想对苏伊士运河有所染指，还想要连带获得美国军舰在该运河上凌驾于他 国的航行权力，由此引发的连锁反应和背后所代表的意味，绝对不是表面上那么简单。 就在本月的26号，特朗普忽然在自己的社交媒体上发布了这样一条消息，声称"无论是美国的军舰还是 商船，都应该被允许免费通过巴拿马和苏伊士运河"。 并且还特别强调，他已经派出了国务卿卢比奥，专门着手处理相关事宜。 虽说特朗普在自己的社交媒体上编造各种不靠谱的谎言，或是发布某些惊世骇俗的言论早已成为了司空 见惯的事情。无论是美国民众还是国外媒体，都多少已经习惯了他的这种奇葩表现。 但此次特 ...

#时事热点我来评# 6.6万亿美债倒计时，特朗普上台后的最大劫难眼瞅着就要来了，这笔债务就像一座大山，压得川普寝食难安。贸易战，本以为是个大招，结果呢？搞成了 大笑话，美债利率飙升，全球都在甩卖，借新还旧的游戏眼看就要玩砸了。 特朗普"百日执政"，所有动作都是为了搞钱，这是他任期的第一个金融大考，结果被他搞的一地鸡毛。40天后，6.6万亿美债"炸弹"就要爆炸了，这可不是 个小数目，摊到每个美国佬头上人均要1.8万，想想都头疼。这果然应了咱们中国那句老话，因果报应！ 想想疫情那会，美国靠着美债收割全球财富，那叫一个风光，现在可好，刀扎自己身上了。但说实话，这6.6万亿在以前根本不算事，毕竟，美国年年都有 几万亿美债到期，多的时候七八万亿，少的时候五六万亿，美国都能从容应对。 以前他们靠的是"发新债还旧债"的把戏，日子过得那叫一个滋润，而且这套以贷养贷的玩法，美国已经用了上百年，为啥能一直这么玩呢？全靠二战后建立 的美元大循环。 老美先用军事和科技实力，让美元成了硬通货，然后在国际市场发行美债，让西欧、日韩、中东，这些国家买美债，他们拿到美元后，再买美国的高科技和 尖端武器，美元又能回流到美国手里，形成了完美闭环 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting held by China at the UN aimed to address the impacts of unilateralism and bullying on international relations, with a focus on criticizing the United States' recent tariff policies [1][3][6]. Group 1: Meeting Overview - The meeting was conducted in the "Arria Formula" format, allowing for informal discussions among UN member states, with over 80 countries represented, setting a new record for participation [5]. - The meeting highlighted the ongoing geopolitical tensions between China and the US, with both sides exchanging strong criticisms [3][6]. Group 2: China's Position - China's UN representative, Fu Cong, emphasized the need for countries to work together to counter unilateralism and uphold the international order based on international law [3][6]. - Fu criticized the US for its tariff policies, claiming they violate WTO rules and disrupt global economic stability [3][6]. Group 3: US Response - The US representative, Wu Ting, attempted to defend US actions by listing accusations against China, including its trade policies and international security threats, but faced skepticism from most attending countries [3][6]. Group 4: Global Economic Context - Recent reports from the International Monetary Fund and the UN Conference on Trade and Development indicate a downward revision of global economic growth forecasts for 2025, reflecting a potential economic downturn affecting all countries [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the perception of Trump's Middle East policy as aggressive and dismissive of international norms, with accusations of the U.S. acting as a bully and igniting conflict in the region [1][2][3][7] - Trump's support for Israel's actions in Gaza and his perceived disregard for Palestinian rights reflect a colonial mindset, as noted by various analysts [2][3] - The U.S. has lost credibility in the Middle East, as indicated by the comments from regional experts who believe that Trump's actions have exacerbated conflicts rather than resolved them [3][4] Group 2 - The Trump administration's approach towards Iran involves a combination of extreme pressure through sanctions and military threats, while simultaneously claiming to seek diplomatic solutions [4] - The U.S. military actions in Yemen have led to further humanitarian crises, raising concerns among Gulf states about the stability of the region [4] - Trump's demands for free passage of U.S. ships through the Suez Canal reflect a broader pattern of perceived economic and political extortion directed at sovereign nations [6][7]

编 辑丨和佳 当地时间4月2 9日，美国总统特朗普第二任期迎来了"百日执政"纪念日。从内政到外交，从经 济到民生，特朗普政府上任以来出台的多项政策遭到广泛批评。有分析认为，特朗普政府的政 策不仅未能带来预期中的稳定增长或国际声誉提升，反而为共和党中期选举前景蒙上阴影，也 使美国在全球治理中的领导地位面临更大不确定性。 据新华社报道，美国媒体4月2 7日发布的一项联合民调结果显示， 仅有3 9%的受访者认可特 朗普的执政表现，其执政支持率创下过去8 0年来美国历任总统同期最低纪录。 复旦大学国际问题研究院院长、复旦大学美国研究中心主任吴心伯4月3 0日在接受2 1世纪经济 报道记者专访时表示，不及格的百日支持率反映了公众对特朗普执政表现的普遍不认可，也预 示着其第二任期开局不利。他认为，虽然民调本身并非政策成败的直接因素，但将在政治层面 产生连锁反应，鼓舞反对派——尤其是民主党加大对其的狙击，从而阻碍其后续政治议程的推 进。 在国内经济层面，吴心伯指出，特朗普政府"破多立少"的改革虽力度空前，却难见成效，反而 引发了一系列经济与社会问题。其中，所谓的"对等关税"对美国经济的冲击成为民众和企业最 直接的不满来源， ...