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钢铁行业周报(20250512-20250516):宏观预期和基本面双修复,钢价待修复-20250518
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-18 11:48
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel industry, indicating a recovery in both macro expectations and fundamentals, with steel prices expected to rebound [1]. Core Viewpoints - The supply side has started to decline from high levels, while foreign trade expectations have improved, leading to an increase in steel prices. The five major steel product prices have shown weekly increases, with rebar at 3,330 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,657 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,320 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,767 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,539 CNY/ton [1][2]. - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel companies has decreased to 2.4477 million tons, indicating a slight reduction in supply. Meanwhile, the total steel inventory has dropped by 454,100 tons to 14.3066 million tons, with social inventory decreasing by 393,700 tons [1][2]. - Demand has shown resilience, with total consumption of the five major steel products rising to 9.1376 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 685,600 tons [1][2]. Summary by Sections Production Data - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel companies is 2.4477 million tons, down 0.87% week-on-week. The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 91.76%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points [1][2]. - The electric arc furnace capacity utilization rate has increased to 56.57%, up 1.49 percentage points week-on-week [1][2]. Consumption Data - The apparent consumption of rebar increased by 463,900 tons, while hot-rolled coil consumption rose by 200,000 tons. However, cold-rolled coil consumption saw a slight decline of 5,100 tons [1][2]. Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory stands at 14.3066 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 454,100 tons. Social inventory has decreased to 9.9367 million tons, while steel mill inventory is at 4.3699 million tons [1][2]. Profitability - The average pig iron cost for 114 steel mills is 2,412 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 1 CNY/ton week-on-week. The gross profit per ton for rebar is 103 CNY, for hot-rolled coil is 31 CNY, and for cold-rolled coil is -44 CNY, indicating a recovery in profitability [1][2][3].
【图】2025年1-3月广西壮族自治区柴油产量统计分析
Chan Ye Diao Yan Wang· 2025-05-18 09:04
Core Viewpoint - The diesel production in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region has significantly decreased in March 2025 and the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same periods in the previous year, indicating a downward trend in the region's industrial output [1][3]. Group 1: March 2025 Diesel Production - Diesel production in March 2025 was 36.3 thousand tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 16.1% [1]. - The growth rate in March 2025 was 2.6 percentage points lower than the same month last year [1]. - Guangxi's diesel production accounted for 2.2% of the national total diesel production of 1680.5 million tons during the same period [1]. Group 2: January to March 2025 Diesel Production - Total diesel production from January to March 2025 was 90.4 thousand tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 20.4% [3]. - The growth rate for the first quarter of 2025 was 6.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year [3]. - Guangxi's diesel production represented 1.9% of the national total diesel production of 4774.5 million tons during this timeframe [3].
【图】2025年1-3月辽宁省初级形态的塑料产量数据分析
Chan Ye Diao Yan Wang· 2025-05-18 04:46
摘要:【图】2025年1-3月辽宁省初级形态的塑料产量数据分析 2025年3月初级形态的塑料产量统计: 初级形态的塑料产量:64.8 万吨 同比增长:13.7% 2025年1-3月初级形态的塑料产量统计: 初级形态的塑料产量:178.7 万吨 同比增长:12.2% 增速较上一年同期变化:高8.9个百分点 增速较上一年同期变化:高8.5个百分点 据统计,2025年3月辽宁省规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量与上年同期相比增长了13.7%,达64.8 万吨,增速较上一年同期高8.5个百分点,继续保持增长,增速较同期全国高3.5个百分点,约占同期全 国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量1225.91792万吨的比重为5.3%。 详见下图: 图1:辽宁省初级形态的塑料产量分月(当月值)统计图 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化工行业最新动态 石油发展前景趋势分析 化工的现状和发展趋势 日化行业现状与发展趋势润滑油市场现状及前景分析汽油市场调研与发展前景 柴油发展现状及前景预测橡胶市场调研及发展趋势 塑料行业监测及发展趋势 化妆品未来发展趋势预测清洁护肤现状及发展前景 据统计,2025年1-3月,辽宁省规模以上工业企业初级形态 ...
Alphamin2025Q1锡产量环比减少18%至4270吨,公司已将2025年的锡产量预期从2万吨下调至1.75万吨
HUAXI Securities· 2025-05-17 13:29
Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The company has revised its 2025 tin production forecast from 20,000 tons to 17,500 tons due to production interruptions [7] - In Q1 2025, the company processed 160,300 tons of ore, a decrease of 31% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 46.5% year-on-year [1] - The average tin grade for processed ore in Q1 2025 was 3.55%, an 18% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 7.3% decrease year-on-year [1] - The average recovery rate of the concentrator was 75%, consistent with previous periods and above the target of 73% [1] - The average tin price achieved in Q1 2025 was $32,507 per ton, a 7% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 21% increase year-on-year [3] - The estimated all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for tin in Q1 2025 was $16,339 per ton, a 9% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 10.5% increase year-on-year [3] - The company held $99 million in cash as of April 17, 2025, and expects to receive $38 million in sales revenue by the end of April 2025 [3] Summary by Sections Production and Operational Performance - Q1 2025 tin production was 4,270 tons, an 18% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 36% increase year-on-year [1] - Tin sales in Q1 2025 were 3,863 tons, a 22% decrease quarter-on-quarter and a 6% decrease year-on-year [2] - The company increased sales and export volumes by the end of Q1 2025, totaling 4,581 tons by April 16, 2025 [2] Financial Performance - The estimated EBITDA for Q1 2025 is $61.8 million, a 19% decrease from the previous quarter but a 19% increase year-on-year [3] - The company has agreed to renew a $53 million overdraft facility, which requires formal documentation and a $28 million international bank guarantee [5] Operational Restart Update - From April 15 to May 11, 2025, the Bisie tin mine produced 1,290 tons of tin, with production gradually increasing as operations resumed [6] - The first batch of tin concentrate with complete records was exported on May 9, 2025 [6]
【图】2025年1-3月重庆市原油产量数据分析
Chan Ye Diao Yan Wang· 2025-05-17 01:00
摘要:【图】2025年1-3月重庆市原油产量数据分析 2025年1-3月原油产量分析: 据国家统计局数据,在2025年的前3个月,重庆市规模以上工业企业原油产量累计达到了0.8万吨,与 2024年同期的数据相比,增长了22.0%,增速较2024年同期低94.2个百分点,增速放缓,增速较同期全 国高20.9个百分点,约占同期全国规模以上企业原油产量5408.8万吨的比重为0.0%。 图表:重庆市原油产量分月(累计值)统计 2025年3月原油产量分析: 单独看2025年3月份,重庆市规模以上工业企业原油产量达到了0.3万吨,与2024年同期的数据相比,3 月份的产量增长了13.1%,增速较2024年同期低108.5个百分点,增速放缓,增速较同期全国高9.6个百 分点,约占同期全国规模以上企业原油产量1902.5万吨的比重为0.0%。 图表:重庆市原油产量分月(当月值)统计 石油化工行业最新动态 石油的现状和发展趋势 化工行业现状与发展趋势 日化市场现状及前景分析润滑油市场调研与发展前景汽油发展现状及前景预测 柴油市场调研及发展趋势橡胶行业监测及发展趋势 塑料未来发展趋势预测 化妆品现状及发展前景 清洁护肤发展前景 ...
焦炭市场周报:商品市场情绪回暖,钢厂提降压制价格-20250516
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 09:11
目录 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 焦炭市场周报 商品市场情绪回暖,钢厂提降压制价格 研究员:徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 1. 宏观方面,国家相关部委正在积极部署和推进全国粗钢产量调控工作,工业和信息化部正在加紧修订《钢铁行业产能置换实施 办法》,目前已形成初稿;央行降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点,预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元;自5月8日起,个人 住房公积金贷款利率下调0.25个百分点。 2. 海外方面,美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间,符合市场预期;特朗普和英国首相斯塔默宣布达 成一项有限双边贸易协议,其中英国将购买价值100亿美元的波音飞机。 3. 供需方面,短期供应弹性好于焦煤,铁水产量上升空间有限。利润方面,本期全国30家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利7元/吨,钢厂 提出节后焦炭首轮降价,谨防关税达成的乐观情绪消退,煤炭价格重新回落,二三季度淡季来临后,弱现实仍然是主要矛盾之 一。 4. 技术方面,焦炭主力周K趋势:周K线处于60日 ...
焦炭首轮提降落地 期货盘面价格以震荡运行对待
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-16 06:19
【消息面汇总】 本周统计全国230家独立焦企样本:产能利用率为75.23%增0.18%;焦炭日均产量53.63增0.13,焦炭库 存65.46增0.37,炼焦煤总库存752.56减22.61,焦煤可用天数10.6天减0.34天。 5月16日,焦炭期货震荡走低,截至发稿主力合约报1444.0元/吨,跌幅达2.04%。 恒泰期货:供应上,焦钢博弈加剧,焦炭首轮提降落地,吨焦利润有所收窄,焦企开工率和产能利用率 或小幅下降。需求上,前期钢厂利润收缩,周内长流程铁水见顶回落,钢厂补库需求趋缓,采购积极性 有所下降。终端需求成色仍然是基本面调整的核心,黑链交易逻辑转为宏观面与基本面双轮驱动,预计 焦炭价格短期处于利空计价后的小幅修复反弹中。中长期仍为黑链负反馈格局下的偏空思路。 瑞达期货(002961):现货端,钢厂提出节后焦炭首轮降价。国家相关部委正在积极部署和推进全国粗 钢产量调控工作,工业和信息化部正在加紧修订《钢铁行业产能置换实施办法》,目前已形成初稿。基 本面,短期供应弹性好于焦煤,铁水产量上升空间有限。利润方面,本期全国30家独立焦化厂平均吨焦 盈利7元/吨,钢厂提出节后焦炭首轮降价。技术方面,4小时周期K ...
USDA5月报告:25、26美豆期末库存预期下滑,新作开局供应-20250516
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 05:53
2025/5/16 10:09 USDA 5 25/26美⾖期末库存预期下滑,新作开局供应预期边际收紧 【USDA】5月报告:25/26美豆期末库存预期下滑,新作开局供应 国富研究 国富研究 2025年05月16日 07:34 上海 概述:USDA 5月报告公布,对于24/25年度,此次报告将美豆出口小幅上调导 致美豆期末库存随之下调2500万蒲至3.5亿蒲。对于25/26年度,报告预计美豆播 种面积减少,单产预估为52.5蒲/英亩,最终25/26年度产量为43.4亿蒲,仍处 于 丰 产 水 平 。 此 外 , 报 告 预 计 美 豆 压 榨 同 比 增 幅 高 于 出 口 减 幅 , 最 终 报 告 公 布 25/26年度美豆期末库存同比下滑且低于市场预期,报告影响利多。 豆主产区天气是否能支撑起25/26年度美豆丰产以及25/26年度美豆需求是否无虞 尚未可知,25/26年度美豆供应叙事如何发展仍有待观察。 | | | 对于24/25年度,USDA 5月报告将美豆出口上调2500万蒲至18.5亿蒲,美豆期末库 存因此下调2500万蒲至3.5亿蒲,市场预期为3.69亿蒲,预估范围在3.5-3.75亿蒲,位 ...
【期货热点追踪】5-6月铁水产量下行空间有限,叠加市场乐观情绪仍在,机构预计铁矿石年均价格为……
news flash· 2025-05-16 03:24
期货热点追踪 5-6月铁水产量下行空间有限,叠加市场乐观情绪仍在,机构预计铁矿石年均价格为…… 相关链接 ...