Group 1: Iron Ore Market - Iron ore prices experienced slight fluctuations, driven by strong shipping intentions from traders and steel companies' low-price procurement ahead of the "May Day" holiday [1] - The overall demand for iron ore remains good due to high operating rates in steel mills, with port arrivals of iron ore increasing and inventory levels continuing to decline, albeit at a slower rate [1] - Despite a slight drop in iron ore futures prices, the fundamentals suggest a potential for slight upward price movement in the near term [1] Group 2: Metallurgical Coke Market - Domestic metallurgical coke prices remained stable, supported by increasing iron output and good demand for metallurgical coke [2] - Some steel companies are experiencing urgency for dry quenching first-grade metallurgical coke, but overall acceptance of price increases is low due to stable steel market conditions and unchanged profits [2] - It is expected that metallurgical coke prices will remain stable in the near term [2] Group 3: Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices showed a downward trend, with online auction prices fluctuating and instances of unsold lots [3] - Prices for low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi were reported at 1310 yuan/ton, while prices for gas coal in Shaanxi ranged from 840 to 870 yuan/ton [3] - Overall demand for coking coal remains supported by high operating rates in coke enterprises, with expectations of stable prices leading up to the "May Day" holiday [3] Group 4: Ferroalloy Market - Ferroalloy prices showed a stable to slightly increasing trend, with silicon iron prices remaining stable and production in major regions increasing slightly [4] - The market for silicon manganese is expected to operate steadily with a slight downward bias, as procurement prices from steel companies have decreased [4] - High-carbon ferrochrome prices are stable, with procurement prices from major companies showing a slight increase, but overall demand remains moderate [4] Group 5: Vanadium and Molybdenum Alloys - Vanadium-nitrogen alloy prices decreased by 1000 yuan/ton, while vanadium iron prices remained stable, indicating limited price fluctuation space [5] - Molybdenum iron prices increased by 8000 yuan/ton, driven by rising raw material costs and good demand from steel companies [5] - The procurement pace for molybdenum iron has slowed following price increases, with expectations of stable to slightly fluctuating prices in the near term [5]

2025年5月6日，华宏科技发布了2024年年报。报告显示，公司全年实现营业总收入55.76亿元，同比下 降18.96%；归属净利润为-3.56亿元，同比大幅下降123.89%。扣非净利润同样表现不佳，为-4.51亿元， 同比下降65.51%。尽管公司在再生资源装备、电梯零部件、稀土资源综合利用和稀土磁材四大业务板 块中有所布局，但整体业绩仍面临较大压力。 电梯零部件高端制造：商誉减值拖累业绩 电梯零部件高端制造板块是华宏科技的另一大业务支柱，全资子公司江苏威尔曼科技有限公司在这一领 域表现突出。然而，2024年公司对收购威尔曼股权形成的商誉进行了减值测试，并计提了3.34亿元的商 誉减值准备，直接导致归属净利润大幅下滑。 公司在稀土磁材业务板块也取得了一定进展，产品产、销量同比实现较大幅度增长，毛利率明显提升。 随着与新能源汽车电机、工业机器人电机行业相关企业建立业务合作，高性能磁材业务规模有望持续扩 大。然而，市场竞争的加剧和原材料价格波动，仍为这一板块的未来发展带来不确定性。 再生资源装备及运营：政策红利难掩市场疲软 总体来看，华宏科技在2024年面临较大的经营压力，尽管部分板块显示出良好的发展势头，但 ...

钽铁矿主要供应电子和航空航天行业，刚果和卢旺达是全球钽生产核心，其产量占全球供应量58%以 上，刚果紧张局势引发的供应中断对全球钽价格有何影响？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong outlook for future returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 11.206 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.960 billion yuan, up 65.29% year-on-year [1]. - The inverter business continues to grow, with revenue reaching 5.556 billion yuan in 2024, a 25.44% increase year-on-year, while the gross margin was 47.81% [2]. - The energy storage battery segment saw significant growth, with revenue of 2.451 billion yuan in 2024, a remarkable increase of 177.19% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 41.3% [3]. - The company is expanding its product offerings, including new inverter solutions tailored for the European market and energy storage solutions for commercial use [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 11.206 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.960 billion yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 2.805 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 49.82%, 65.29%, and 51.34% respectively [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 2.566 billion yuan, up 36.24% year-on-year, with a net profit of 706 million yuan, an increase of 62.98% [1]. Product Development - The inverter product line generated 5.556 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with a focus on overseas markets and localized product offerings [2]. - The company launched a micro-storage inverter for the European market and a comprehensive energy storage solution for commercial applications [2]. Growth in Energy Storage - The energy storage battery segment achieved 2.451 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with a gross margin increase of 7.43 percentage points [3]. - New products include low-voltage wall-mounted batteries and high-voltage rack-mounted batteries designed for diverse market needs [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.896 billion yuan, 4.829 billion yuan, and 5.479 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 10 [4]. - The company is expected to maintain strong profitability metrics, with a projected ROE of 31.31% in 2024 and increasing thereafter [11].

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year decline, while net profit attributable to shareholders was significantly impacted by a fine related to sodium dexamethasone sales, with a stable growth in non-recurring net profit [1][2][3] - The impact of centralized procurement on the formulation segment has been largely digested, and new products are continuously being introduced, with expectations for accelerated growth in 2025 [1][4] - Revenue from the raw materials segment declined due to inventory destocking by overseas clients and price decreases, but sales volume remains stable, with a positive outlook for gradual recovery [1][5] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 4.001 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, down 29.46% [2][3] - The non-recurring net profit for 2024 was 549 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.15% [2][3] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, with a net profit of 140 million yuan, down 4.7% [2][3] Formulation Segment - In 2024, the formulation sales revenue reached 2.276 billion yuan, an increase of 8% year-on-year [4] - Key therapeutic areas showed varied performance, with gynecology and family planning sales at 450 million yuan, stable year-on-year; anesthetic muscle relaxants at 160 million yuan, up 55%; respiratory products at 880 million yuan, up 31%; and dermatology products at 230 million yuan, up 19% [4] - The company’s new products are expected to accelerate growth, with significant sales increases in new offerings such as sodium glucosamine injection [4][6] Raw Materials Segment - In 2024, revenue from raw materials and intermediates was 1.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13% [5] - The decline was attributed to inventory destocking in the international market and increased competition leading to price drops [5][6] - The company is expected to see a recovery in the raw materials segment as prices stabilize and market share increases [5][6] Expense Analysis - In 2024, the company's sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 25.84%, 7.74%, and 6.63%, respectively, with slight increases year-on-year [7] - The gross margin improved to 57.49%, up 4.61 percentage points, attributed to the clearing of centralized procurement impacts and operational efficiency [7] - The net profit margin was 10%, significantly impacted by a fine provision of 195 million yuan [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve stable growth in revenue and profit in 2025, with non-centralized procurement products anticipated to grow steadily [8] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 4.35 billion, 4.81 billion, and 5.48 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.6%, 10.7%, and 13.8% respectively [8]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium industry is experiencing significant fluctuations, with Tianqi Lithium achieving a turnaround in Q1 2024 while Ganfeng Lithium continues to face losses, highlighting divergent strategies in a challenging market environment [1][2][10][11]. Group 1: Company Performance - Tianqi Lithium reported Q1 2024 revenue of 2.584 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.02% year-on-year, and a net profit of 104 million yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss of 3.897 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - Ganfeng Lithium's Q1 2024 revenue was 3.772 billion yuan, down 25.43% year-on-year, with a net loss of 356 million yuan, although the loss narrowed from 439 million yuan in the previous year [1][5]. - In 2023, Tianqi Lithium faced a significant revenue drop of 67.75%, with a net loss of 7.905 billion yuan, while Ganfeng Lithium's revenue decreased by 42.66%, resulting in a net loss of 2.074 billion yuan, marking its first annual loss since 2010 [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Performance - Tianqi Lithium's Q1 2024 performance improvement is attributed to the resolution of several adverse factors affecting its 2024 results, including better pricing mechanisms for lithium concentrate and reduced production costs [3][4]. - The company also benefited from increased investment income from its associate SQM, which is expected to show year-on-year growth [4]. - Ganfeng Lithium did not disclose specific reasons for its continued losses in Q1 2024, but it indicated that the current lithium prices are likely at a relatively low point [5][6]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The lithium market is currently facing oversupply issues, with lithium prices continuing to decline, impacting the financial health of lithium salt manufacturers [7][9]. - As of April 30, 2024, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell to 67,900 yuan per ton, a drop of over 9% since the beginning of the year, which has affected cash flow for companies like Ganfeng Lithium [8]. - The industry is expected to see continued oversupply, with significant production increases anticipated in 2025, further pressuring prices [9]. Group 4: Strategic Directions - Tianqi Lithium is focusing on a long-term strategy of strengthening its upstream resources and expanding its midstream production capabilities, aiming for vertical integration in the lithium supply chain [10]. - Ganfeng Lithium is shifting its revenue focus towards lithium battery manufacturing, with a notable increase in the contribution of battery products to its overall revenue [11]. - The company is currently emphasizing its energy storage segment, which faces challenges due to significant overcapacity in the market [12].

Core Points - The Chicago futures market saw a decline in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on May 5, with corn down 3.14%, wheat down 2.16%, and soybeans down 1.18% [1] - Favorable weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest are expected to facilitate rapid spring planting, contributing to the downward pressure on prices [1][2] - The USDA reported significant increases in cumulative export inspection volumes for corn (29%), soybeans (11%), and wheat (14%) compared to the previous year [1] Group 1 - On May 5, the most active July corn contract closed at $4.54 per bushel, down 14.75 cents; July wheat at $5.31 per bushel, down 11.75 cents; and July soybeans at $10.46 per bushel, down 12.5 cents [1] - The USDA's export inspection report indicated that for the week ending May 1, corn export inspections totaled 63.317 million bushels, wheat 11.4 million bushels, and soybeans 11.9 million bushels [1] - IKAR raised its forecast for Russia's wheat production in 2025 from 82.5 million tons to 83.8 million tons [1]

证券分析师 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 05 月 05 日 金价回调不改长期趋势，铜铝去库 支撑价格 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20250428-20250502 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数下跌 0.49%，深证成指下跌 0.17%，沪深 300 下跌 0.43%，有色金属（申万）指数下跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold exhibits a unique price fluctuation mechanism influenced by multiple factors, including currency pricing systems, macroeconomic risks, market structure evolution, supply-demand elasticity, and technical reinforcement mechanisms. Group 1: Currency Pricing System Linkage - The international gold price is negatively correlated with the US dollar index, where a 1% increase in the dollar index raises gold purchasing costs, suppressing investment demand [1]. - Major central banks' balance sheet expansions directly elevate gold price benchmarks, with each additional $1 trillion in quantitative easing raising gold valuations by 8%-12% [2]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Risk Matrix - The forward price of gold is determined by the nominal interest rate minus inflation expectations, with gold prices reaching a historical peak of $2075 per ounce when the real yield on US Treasuries fell below -1% [3]. - A 10-point increase in the global geopolitical risk index results in a 3.2% increase in average monthly gold holdings, evidenced by events like the Crimea crisis and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4]. Group 3: Market Structure Evolution - Emerging market central banks have increased gold purchases for 13 consecutive years, with global official reserves rising by 1136 tons in 2022, accounting for 23% of annual supply [5]. - An increase of 100,000 open contracts in COMEX gold futures raises price volatility by 1.8 basis points, with significant spikes in implied volatility during events like the Silicon Valley Bank incident [6]. Group 4: Supply-Demand Elasticity - The average extraction cost of the top ten gold mines has risen to $1250 per ounce, with newly discovered reserves declining by 15% year-on-year [7]. - India and China account for 55% of global physical gold demand, with a 40% surge in imports during festive seasons, despite India's recent increase in import tax to 15% [8]. Group 5: Technical Reinforcement Mechanisms - Algorithmic trading strategies hold over 30 million ounces of gold, with momentum factors contributing over 35% to price volatility, triggering significant buy orders upon breaking key price levels [9]. - A 50% year-on-year increase in Google searches for "gold investment" correlates with a 68% probability of gold price increases in the following 30 days [10].

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月03日 德明利（001309.SZ） 优于大市 1Q25 收入逆势同环比增长，产品线与客户结构加速升级 公司 1Q25 收入逆势同比增长 54.41%。公司以存储颗粒为原材料进行存储模 组开发，产品包括嵌入式存储、固态硬盘、移动存储及内存条等。24 年存储 价格呈现前高后低趋势，受存储价格回落影响 4Q24 上游厂商再次减产，存 储价格于 1Q25 触底，预计 25 年存储价格有望温和复苏。在此背景下：尽管 1Q25 存储价格下降触底，公司通过渠道及客户拓展仍逆势实现营收 12.52 亿 元(YoY+54.4%，QoQ+6.5%)，短期受研发投入同比增长 97.77%、银行贷款增 加带来的财务费用增加及存货跌价准备等影响，扣非归母净利润-0.75 亿元 (YoY-138.9%，QoQ+24.7%)同比下降，随价格触底企稳公司 1Q25 亏损环比收 窄，毛利率 5.8%(YoY-31.4pct，QoQ+5.5pct)环比改善。目前公司研发投入 已在收入端逐步体现，未来待规模稳定后盈利有望逐步改善。 自研主控顺利推进，逐步构建"主控+模组"模式。目前公司新一代自研 SD6.0 存 ...