Group 1 - JD Group's founder Liu Qiangdong emphasizes the "Three Mao Five Theory," where retailers should only take one-third of the profits, while two-thirds should go to brand owners to promote brand development [1] - A prosperous country must create a positive economic cycle, allowing brand owners to earn more, which leads to better products and higher wages for workers, ultimately benefiting retailers, brand owners, consumers, and industrial workers [1] - The theory reflects experiences from developed countries, where manufacturing is seen as the "source of wealth," driving economic growth through an upgrade in the industrial chain [1] Group 2 - Manufacturing has a multiplier effect, driving the development of upstream and downstream industries, creating indirect employment opportunities that often exceed direct jobs in manufacturing [2] - The process of a country becoming wealthy is linked to the upgrading of its manufacturing sector, which initially relies on factor advantages but must shift towards technological innovation for higher profit margins [2] - Companies need to establish their brands and enhance product trust and loyalty through improvements in technology, quality, service, and marketing to generate more profits for reinvestment in innovation and education [3] Group 3 - The upgrading process in developed countries involves technological innovation and brand building, leading to excess profits primarily seen in multinational companies with global brands [3] - The growth of the platform economy in China has increased online sales, but aggressive price competition has led to an "involution" phenomenon, putting pressure on manufacturing sectors to engage in price wars [3][4] - To support the transformation and high-quality development of Chinese manufacturing, platform companies should ensure reasonable profit distribution along the supply chain, avoiding detrimental price wars that could harm product quality and consumer interests [4]

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 6 月战略性新兴产业采购经理人指数（ EPMI ）环比下行 3.1 个点至 47.9 。 6 月为传统制造业淡季， EPMI 季节性以环比下行为主， 2014- 2024 年 6 月环比均值为 -1.1 个点，本月环比回调幅度略大于季节性。绝对景气值降至 2014 年以来历史同期最低。中观景气面同步有所走弱， 7 大细 分新兴产业中，位于景气扩张区间的行业个数为 2 个，较 5 月减少 1 个。 第二， 分项指标看，新兴产业供需、量价均有不同程度放缓。（ 1 ）生产量、产品订货指标 6 月环比分别下降 5.5 、 6.0 个点。（ 2 ）产需比例（生产 与产品订货指标之差） 2.0 ，虽仍低于过去 3 年均值水平，但环比走高 0.5 个点，是需求降幅快于供给所致；在前期报告中我们也指出 5 月工业部门产销 率有所放缓。（ 3 ）出口订货指标环比下降 6.6 个点，降幅大于整体订单；可以印证的是 6 月上半月港口集装箱吞吐量也有所放缓（见《 6 月经济初 窥》）；抢出口释放之后出口增速中枢可能有所下移。（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing index for June is reported at -4, which is below the expected -1 and unchanged from the previous value of -4 [1] Summary by Category Economic Indicators - The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector, as a negative value suggests a decline in activity [1] - The index's current value of -4 reflects a weaker performance than anticipated, signaling potential challenges for manufacturers in the region [1]

美国6月费城联储制造业物价获得指数 29.5，前值43.6。 ...

Core Insights - The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing new orders index for June is reported at 2.3, a decrease from the previous value of 7.5 [1] Summary by Category Economic Indicators - The new orders index indicates a slowdown in manufacturing activity, reflecting a decline in demand [1] - The drop from 7.5 to 2.3 suggests a significant shift in the manufacturing sector's outlook [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing index for June is reported at -4, which is below the expected -1 and matches the previous value of -4 [1] Group 1 - The manufacturing index indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector, as a negative value suggests a decline in activity [1] - The index's performance is a key indicator for assessing the health of the manufacturing industry in the region [1] - The deviation from expectations may signal potential challenges for manufacturers in the area [1]

美国6月费城联储制造业就业指数 -9.8，前值16.5。 ...

美国6月费城联储制造业装船指数 8.3，前值-13。 ...

美国6月费城联储制造业物价支付指数 41.4，前值59.8。 ...

Group 1 - Canadian retail sales for April and the U.S. June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index are set to be released in ten minutes [1]