投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空交织，煤焦宽幅震荡 核心观点 焦炭：6 月 25 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1387.5 元/吨，日内录得 1.46%的 涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 5.13 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 1125 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1220 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.94%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1150 元/ 吨，周环比下跌 1.71%。近期，随着利多因素逐渐累积，原先普遍悲观的 市场情绪迎来转变，部分空单止盈离 ...

2025年6月25日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 以伊冲突缓和,原油继续大跌, EC盘面低开低走, 符合日报预期, 近期博弈难度较大, 建议轻仓参与或观望。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 6月23日 | 6月20日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1937.14点，较上期上涨14.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1382.05点，较上期下跌10.07% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1299.58点，较上期下跌0.64% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）2083.46点，较上期下跌28.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1586.05点，较上期下跌28.91% | | 6月20日 | | | | 6月20日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1869.59点，较上期下跌218.65点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1342.46点，较上期上涨8.0% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1835USD/TEU, 较上期下 ...

Group 1 - Iran is assessing the damage to its nuclear program and has developed a recovery plan to prevent disruptions in production and service processes [1] - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that the U.S. conducted precise strikes on Iran's key nuclear facilities, resulting in severe damage to the Natanz centrifuge hall [1] - Iran has reportedly transferred nearly 900 pounds of potential enriched uranium to secure locations, but the IAEA is unaware of the specific whereabouts of this material [1][2] Group 2 - U.S. Vice President JD Vance stated that if Iran cannot enrich uranium to 90%, it cannot produce nuclear weapons, a sentiment echoed by IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi [2] - The disappearance of 900 pounds of enriched uranium has become a focal point in the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations [2] - Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian indicated that Iran's missile retaliation against U.S. and Israeli attacks led to a ceasefire agreement, asserting that Iran will not abandon its nuclear program [2]

稀土矿（资料图） 据央视新闻消息，当地时间6月19日，俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行董事会主席兼首席执行官格列夫表示，在俄美关系缓和的背景 下，该行正与美国合作伙伴举行会谈，但目前仅是"试探性接触"。至于具体合作项目，"暂无任何计划"。格列夫还称，俄 罗斯银行业整体状况"不错"，目前"未见任何银行危机迹象"，但承认年度利润将有所下滑。2022年4月，美国对俄罗斯联 邦储蓄银行实施全面封锁制裁，冻结其在美资产，并禁止美公民与其进行金融往来。 俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行董事会主席兼首席执行官格列夫（资料图） 俄罗斯联邦矿产开发署署长奥列格·卡扎诺夫在圣彼得堡国际经济论坛前夕接受卫星通讯社采访时表示，洛沃泽罗和托姆 托尔矿不仅能够为俄罗斯，还能为全世界提供稀土金属。他指出，俄罗斯 2,850 万吨稀土金属储量中 1,100 万吨集中在两 个矿：位于摩尔曼斯克州的洛沃泽罗矿（700 万吨）和位于雅库特的托姆托尔矿（400 万吨）。此之，还存在未分配资源 区块以及技术成因原料矿源，这些均未计入俄罗斯已探明的 2,850 万吨储量之中"。 开发署署长卡扎诺夫强调，目前俄方已经探明了2850万吨稀土储量，而这还不包含未分配的资源区块，以及技术 ...

最近沃勒、鲍曼这些美联储大佬接二连三放话"7月可能降息"，连鲍威尔在国会都松了口。现在期货市场押注年内降息60个基点，比一周前又多押了15个 基点。道理很简单：降息预期一升温，债券价格就涨，收益率自然往下掉，交易员算的就是这个账。 第二股：中东停火+油价"神助攻" 特朗普突然宣布伊朗以色列停火，国际油价唰地跌了，通胀压力暂时缓解。再加上美国消费者信心数据爆冷，市场马上觉得"经济降温"剧本要上演，资金 就往美债里钻，推着收益率往下走。 老铁们，我是帮主郑重，在财经圈摸爬滚打20年，专做中长线的老炮儿。最近美债市场可有点热闹——交易员砸了3800万美金押注10年期收益率跌到 4%，这事儿得掰开了揉碎了聊。咱今儿就说说，这4%的坎儿背后，到底藏着哪些门道？ 先看交易员咋出牌：真金白银押注"跌跌不休" 上周五到周一，8月到期的10年期美债看涨期权突然火了，光权利金就涌进3800万美金。啥概念？就像一群老江湖集体买保险，赌收益率从现在4.3%跌到 4%。要是真跌到位，那可是自打4月特朗普搞关税突袭以来的最低位，直接把5月涨到4.6%的那波猛劲儿给"掰弯"了。 更有意思的是，周一有笔1000万的大单，直接锁定了行权价11 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing volatility in palm oil futures, highlighting the market's struggle between bullish and bearish sentiments, and the challenges in addressing supply pressures [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The palm oil futures market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, leading to uncertainty about whether the market will rebound or reverse [1] - Supply pressures in the market are significant, raising questions about how these challenges can be effectively managed [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the resolution of supply pressures will be crucial in determining the future direction of palm oil prices [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring developments that could influence the balance between supply and demand in the palm oil sector [1]

Group 1 - The core argument presented by the expert Carol is that if Israel attacks Iran's oil facilities, it would significantly harm China, which relies on Iran for 12% of its oil supply, particularly affecting refineries in Shandong that depend on Iranian oil for 95% of their needs [1] - The suggestion overlooks critical factors, such as Iran's potential retaliation by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil transport, affecting 30% of the world's oil supply and impacting countries like Japan and South Korea that rely on this route for 90% and 88% of their oil imports respectively [3] - China has diversified its oil supply sources, with increased imports from Canada and strategic reserves that can last for three months, along with collaborations in renewable energy projects with Saudi Arabia, indicating preparedness for potential disruptions [3][5] Group 2 - Iran's economy heavily relies on oil revenue, which constitutes over 60% of its fiscal income, making it unlikely for Iran to risk severing ties with China, especially given their significant trade agreements [5] - Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, oppose Israel's potential actions against Iran, fearing retaliation that could affect their oil fields, while the U.S. is also concerned about rising oil prices impacting its economy [5][7] - The modern energy landscape indicates that simply cutting off oil supplies does not guarantee victory in geopolitical conflicts, as China's diversified supply chain and strategic reserves create a safety net against potential disruptions [7]

Core Insights - The report from Colliers International indicates that the net absorption of Grade A office space in Beijing reached 32,000 square meters in Q2 2025, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of positive absorption [1] - The demand in Beijing's Grade A office market is characterized by a "westward expansion and stable east" trend, with new demand concentrated in strategic areas such as Zhongguancun, Lize, and Financial Street [1] - The Q2 market continues the trend of "total reduction and regional differentiation," with Zhongguancun's net absorption surpassing 60,000 square meters in the first half of the year, achieving a record high for four consecutive quarters [1] Regional Performance - Lize Business District maintained strong absorption momentum in Q2, with a net absorption exceeding 20,000 square meters and a total of over 50,000 square meters in the first half of the year [2] - Financial Street remains a stabilizing force in Beijing's office market, with a vacancy rate of 11.7%, the lowest in the city [3] Market Outlook - The Beijing Grade A office market is entering a phase of deep supply-demand negotiation, with 2025 marking a low point for new supply over the next three years, creating favorable conditions for a continued decline in vacancy rates [3] - The structural changes driven by differentiated industrial genes are expected to catalyze a breakthrough, potentially leading to regional bottom opportunities and value inflection points in the Grade A office market in the second half of the year [3] - The technology-driven new cycle is anticipated to prompt more companies to shift from inefficient assets to high-quality assets, with rental adjustments allowing for greater flexibility in location choices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The core strategy for improving the government procurement market is to enhance the incentive and constraint mechanisms, continuously lower market entry barriers, and gradually open the market to all legitimate market entities, allowing information to be effectively priced in the government procurement market [1][4]. Group 1: Government Procurement Market Regulation - The Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Public Security, and State Administration for Market Regulation have launched a special rectification action targeting four types of illegal activities in the government procurement sector from June to January of the following year [2]. - The government procurement market is currently a vibrant sector within the national economy, with various ownership enterprises eager to enter this market to inject new vitality into their operations [2][4]. - The special rectification action aims to standardize the development of the government procurement market and create a fair competitive environment [2][4]. Group 2: Information Asymmetry and Regulatory Challenges - The government procurement market exhibits typical characteristics of asymmetric information, leading to moral hazard and adverse selection risks due to the regulatory bodies' inability to effectively obtain observable costs and contract costs [3][4]. - The existing issues in the government procurement market, such as discriminatory clauses and other illegal activities, stem from the information structure and constraints faced by regulators and enterprises [3][4]. - The effectiveness of the special rectification action will depend on addressing the underlying issues of asymmetric information and the incompleteness of commitments within the regulatory framework [4]. Group 3: Market Structure and Mechanism Design - To effectively capture illegal activities in the government procurement market, it is essential to address the constraints arising from asymmetric information and the imperfections of regulators [4]. - The government procurement market currently accounts for about 10% of annual government fiscal expenditures, indicating that the scale effect of the market is not fully realized [4]. - There is a suggestion to include monopolistic state-owned enterprises in the government procurement market to diversify the buyer base and enhance market dynamics [4][5].

2025.06. 24 作者 | 第一财经 钱小岩 这几日的中东局势如同过山车，形势急转直下，又突然停火止战。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普24日称，以色列和伊朗停火协议现已生效，警告各方不要违反协 议。美国东部时间24日凌晨，他在社交媒体上用英文大写单词发布简短帖文说："停火协议现已生 效，请勿违反！" 此前特朗普23日傍晚率先在社交媒体"真实社交"上宣布，以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成一 致，这场为期12天的冲突即将结束。其实在特朗普这一突如其来的宣布前，伊朗和以色列分别释放 出缓和局势的信号。 伊朗23日虽然对美国位于卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地发动导弹袭击，但伊朗方面提前通知了美方，袭 击未造成人员伤亡。与此同时，以色列也已向伊朗发出信息，称以方目标是"几天内"结束双方之间 的军事冲突。 西北大学以色列研究中心主任王晋向第一财经记者表示，以色列和伊朗停火是必然的结果，因为这是 一场消耗战和持续战，双方都无法承受长期冲突带来的后果，"特别是对于以色列来说，推迟了伊朗 的核能力发展，已基本完成了目标，而伊朗也通过对以色列和美国的反击，保住了颜面。" ▲伊朗外长阿拉格齐（来源：新华社图） 停火止战 据新华社 ...