Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the global civilization initiative proposed by China aligns closely with the mission of UNESCO, particularly in promoting international cooperation through education, science, and culture [2][3] - Gabriela Ramos, the only female candidate from the Global South for the next UNESCO Director-General, highlights the importance of ensuring quality education and promoting peace and dialogue education [2] - The initiative aims to enhance mutual understanding among different civilizations, exemplified by the "Silk Road Youth Eye" photography competition, which fosters cultural exchange along the Silk Road [2] Group 2 - Ramos stresses the significance of the global civilization initiative in creating dialogue spaces for different civilizations, which is crucial in the context of increasing global polarization [3] - In the field of technology ethics governance, Ramos notes China's active involvement in educational and research cooperation under the UNESCO framework, emphasizing the need for ethical foundations in the development of frontier technologies like artificial intelligence [3] - To address global challenges such as the crisis of trust in multilateralism, Ramos believes that strengthening dialogue through education, science, and culture is essential for UNESCO's future [3]

▲当地时间6月15日，伊朗德黑兰，以军夜间轰炸后，德黑兰西部沙赫兰炼油厂上空浓烟滚滚。图据视觉中国 据新华社报道，6月13日凌晨以来，以色列持续大规模空袭伊朗，轰炸核设施和军事目标，造成大量人员伤亡。伊朗动用弹道导弹、无人机发起 反击。双方相互空袭至今。据报道，在本轮以伊冲突爆发后，原油期货价格一度上涨高达13%。 李昊分析称，伊朗通过大量的导弹储备，削弱了以色列的技术优势，双方的对攻状态一度呈现"半斤八两"的战术平衡。"但伊朗火力虽猛，却难以持续。"李 昊解释称，目前伊朗普通弹道导弹成本为100万美元，高超音速导弹单位成本为200万到300万美元，而以色列"铁穹"系统拦截弹成本不到5万美元。 美国有意施压 以伊局势将走向何方？ 在以伊冲突明显扩大升级的情况下，原定于6月15日举行的美国和伊朗第六轮伊核谈判被取消。伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬称，只要以色列继续袭击伊朗，伊朗就 不会恢复与美国的谈判。据报道，美国总统特朗普日前在社交平台上警告称，"如果我们（美军）遭到伊朗攻击，我们会以前所未有的规模对你们（伊朗） 实施打击。但我们也可以轻松地与伊朗和以色列达成协议，结束这场冲突。" 伊朗外长阿拉格齐6月15日表示，伊朗对 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 6 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均震荡下跌。消息面，中东地缘危机爆发，市场担忧原因供应问题以及全球 需求下行风险，市场情绪走弱。不过关税战冲击下外需走弱已经在市场预期之 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around stablecoins is gaining momentum globally, with optimistic views suggesting they could significantly enhance the cryptocurrency market, despite their current market cap being only around $300 billion to $3000 billion. The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated that stablecoins could increase the demand for U.S. Treasury bonds by $2 trillion in the short term, compared to the current figure of approximately $300 billion [2]. Group 1: Definition and Stages of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are a type of blockchain digital currency that is pegged to specific assets, primarily the U.S. dollar, which distinguishes them from volatile cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin [3]. - The development of stablecoins can be categorized into four stages: 1. Emergence (before 2018): Limited price fluctuations with the first stablecoin, Tether (USDT), launched in 2014 [6]. 2. Rapid Growth (2019-2021): The DeFi ecosystem's rise led to increased demand for stablecoins, particularly during the "DeFi Summer" of 2020 [6]. 3. Regulatory Adjustment (2022-2023): The collapse of TerraUSD (UST) raised concerns about stability and prompted regulatory scrutiny [8]. 4. Resurgence (2024-present): Following the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, stablecoins are experiencing renewed demand as intermediaries in cryptocurrency transactions [8]. Group 2: Risks and Challenges - The primary risks associated with stablecoins stem from the compliance and operational management of issuing entities, with insufficient transparency regarding reserve assets being a significant concern [12]. - The collapse of UST highlighted the potential for a "death spiral" effect, where panic selling leads to further declines in associated assets, exacerbating instability [13]. - The concentration of wealth within the stablecoin ecosystem is problematic, with 99% of wallets holding less than $10,000, while a small number of wallets control a significant portion of the total supply [16]. Group 3: Regulatory Developments - Recent legislative efforts in the U.S. and Hong Kong aim to establish regulatory frameworks for stablecoins, with the U.S. Senate passing the GENIUS Act and Hong Kong enacting the Stablecoin Ordinance [17][22]. - The U.S. framework emphasizes the need for stablecoins to be backed by high-quality liquid assets, while Hong Kong's regulations focus on ensuring that issuers maintain sufficient reserves and comply with transparency requirements [18]. Group 4: Market Implications - The potential for stablecoins to act as a reservoir for U.S. Treasury bonds is debated, with concerns that they cannot be printed indefinitely without undermining trust [21]. - The current demand for short-term U.S. Treasury bonds from stablecoin issuers may not address the broader issues facing U.S. debt, as the focus is primarily on high-yield investments [21]. - The development of stablecoins is seen as a strategic move to solidify the dominance of the U.S. dollar in international payments, with regulatory support aimed at integrating stablecoins into the financial system [21].

晨报 铝锭 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周铝价偏强震荡。数据显示，美国本月消费者信心指数跃升至 60.5，高于市场预期。本周美联储 FOMC 将公布利率决议和经济预期摘要， 关注海外宏观对市场情绪的指引。 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：旺季尾声 关注本周宏观指引 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动 ...

金倩婧/冯晓宇/林遵东/涂锦文/王胜 本期投资提示： 全球资产价格回顾：本周（20250606–20250614）。本周全球政治不稳定性持续上升。中美方 面，人民日报消息，中美双方进行了专业、理性、深入、坦诚的沟通。双方原则上就落实两国 元首6月5日通话共识以及日内瓦会谈共识达成了框架。美国方面，洛杉矶骚乱中，特朗普派遣 国民警卫队实施镇压，美国"央地关系"持续紧张。全球方面，以色列与伊朗爆发武装冲突，以 空军对伊朗境内数十个与核计划和其他军事设施相关的目标发动空袭。伊朗宣布反击。原油价 格大幅上涨，本周领涨全球资产。1）利率方面， 到2025年6月13日，美十年国债收益率下降 10BPs来到4.41%，美元指数持续走弱，来到98.1。 2）权益方面 ，本周全球权益表现整体温 和，新兴市场强于发达市场，欧洲市场波动较大，具体来说，新兴市场 (0.60%)＞恒生指数 (0.42%)>日经225(0.25%)>沪深300 (-0.25%)>发达市场(-0.35%)>标普500(-0.39%)>欧洲斯托克 600(-1.57%)。 3）商品方面 ，以色列和伊朗的武装冲突使得全球资金开始演绎"石油危机"情 景，本周布 ...

一场迫在眉睫的危机正笼罩着美国经济，如同一个对债务上瘾的病人，美国的财政状况已岌岌可危。债务雪球越滚越大，利息支出已逼近无法承受的临界 点。专家警告，美国正步入"高债务、高赤字、高利率"的恶性循环，全球市场可能在三年内面临剧烈震荡。 国债危机：全球市场风声鹤唳 美国政府的债务总额已高达惊人的 36 万亿美元，平均每个美国公民背负着 10 万美元的债务。更令人担忧的是，2024 年美国偿还国债利息的支出预计将达 到 9800 亿美元，超过 8800 亿美元的国防预算。摩根大通的 CEO 尖锐地指出，国债市场正处于崩溃的边缘。桥水基金的创始人也表达了类似的担忧。 日本国债市场的遭遇就是一个警示。30 年期日本国债价格暴跌，收益率在一年内翻了一番，导致多家大型保险公司损失惨重。而美国的情况更为严峻，高 达 70% 的债务将在五年内到期，需要借新还旧。如果利率持续高企，美国政府的财政预算将不堪重负。 反常现象：经济繁荣下的债务狂潮 传统的经济规律是，经济繁荣时期，政府支出减少，债务降低；经济衰退时期，政府通过刺激政策增加支出，导致债务上升。然而，自 2017 年以来，美国 打破了这一规律。尽管失业率持续下降，政府却在 ...

【环球时报特约记者 王逸】据《今日美国》15日报道，美国总统特朗普14日称，他当天与俄罗斯总统普京通电话讨论了中东不断升级的局势以及 俄乌冲突。自特朗普1月上任以来，这已是他与普京的第五次通话。 特朗普14日在社交媒体上发文称，"普京总统今天早上打电话来，非常亲切地祝我生日快乐"。但他表示，更重要的是，两人集中讨论了伊朗与以 色列的危机。特朗普称，"普京非常了解伊朗，他和我一样，认为以色列与伊朗之间的这场战争应该结束。我也跟他解释说，俄乌冲突也应该结 束"。但特朗普表示，在大约一个小时的通话中，他和普京谈论俄乌冲突的时间"不多"。特朗普还称，俄罗斯和乌克兰正在交换大量战俘，俄乌下 周将继续谈判。 特朗普没有提供有关此次通话的更多细节，中东局势的危险升级，无疑是两国领导人意见交流的焦点。俄罗斯总统助理乌沙科夫14日对媒体介绍 说，50分钟的通话中，普京谴责以色列对伊朗的军事行动，愿意为两国提供调解。此外，乌沙科夫说，"俄罗斯表示愿意在6月22日之后按照约定 继续与乌克兰进行谈判。特朗普总统注意到了这一信息，并表示希望尽快结束俄乌冲突"。美国Axios网站15日称，特朗普目前的策略是尝试修复 美俄关系，以共同解决 ...

Core Insights - The departure of a senior employee from Alibaba, who authored a lengthy article titled "Alibaba is not a fairy tale," highlights the existential crisis faced by employees in China's tech industry, reflecting a shift from idealism to pragmatism in corporate culture [1][4][19] Group 1: Employee Sentiment and Trends - Alibaba's Q1 2023 financial report indicates a 19% reduction in total employees compared to peak levels, marking the first negative growth since its IPO in 2014 [2] - The active resignation rate among employees in major tech companies reached 28% in 2023, a threefold increase from 2020, with over 70% of those resigning being under 35 years old [3] - The number of approved Chinese technical immigrants to New Zealand surged by 152% from January to May 2023, primarily targeting cities like Auckland and Christchurch [4] Group 2: Systemic Issues in Big Tech - Employees face a "performance trap," where frequent organizational changes lead to anxiety and burnout, as exemplified by one employee's experience of reporting to multiple supervisors in a short period [8] - Employee benefits have significantly decreased, with perks such as free meals and interest-free loans being replaced or restricted, reflecting a shift from investment in talent to cost-cutting measures [9] - New Zealand's immigration policies, including a "green list" for skilled workers and favorable living conditions, are increasingly attractive to tech professionals seeking a better work-life balance [9] Group 3: Societal Reflections and Debates - The departure of the employee sparked intense discussions on social media, revealing generational, regional, and industry-based cognitive gaps regarding immigration and work culture [11][12] - A survey indicated that 83% of respondents consider immigration primarily for children's education, while 76% seek better living environments, suggesting that migration decisions are often strategic rather than merely an escape from workplace pressures [12] Group 4: Recommendations and Future Directions - Employees are encouraged to create a "career safety net" by developing side projects to mitigate risks associated with their primary jobs [14] - Companies are advised to reassess their management practices to avoid talent attrition and to focus on building a strong employer brand that resonates with younger generations [15][16] - Policymakers are urged to consider implementing a "workplace health index" to address issues like excessive overtime and workplace bullying, as well as to explore pilot programs for a four-day workweek [17]

据澳洲 统计局数据，今年一季度全澳住宅均价达1,002,500澳元，首破百万大关，环比涨 0.7%。 西澳、南澳和昆州是推动主因，其中昆州均价升至全澳第二。全澳住宅总价值达 11.4万亿澳元，季度增 长1307亿澳元。 澳洲住房与城市研究所（AHURI）的Michael Fotheringham指出，这一里程碑是房 价长期上涨的缩影。 当澳洲房屋均价突破100万澳元时，37岁的Nick Muldoon只能无奈叹息。 去年，他 从墨尔本搬到珀斯，与女友家人同住攒首付，却感觉购房目标不断远去。 （图片来源：ABC） 据澳洲广播公司报道，他说道，"听到房价涨到百万，梦想几乎遥不可及。" 对比平均收入，更凸显住房负担的严峻性。他认为危机源于数十年政策忽视，但联 邦政府正首次长期 介入住房供应。 措施包括计划2029年前新建120万套住房、5%首付政策、"帮买计划"（Help to Buy）计划及100亿澳元 首套房建设基金。 这些计划需数年见效，但政府已将住房列为核心议题。 Grattan Institute的 Matthew Bowes警告，房价上涨会拉大贫富差距。低收入群体住房拥有率持续下 降， 如今已波及中产。 ...