大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 6 月 12 日 【生猪日报】市场压力仍在体现 盘面逐步反弹 今 日 昨 日 变 化 今 日 昨 日 变 化 河南（0） 14.07 14.12 -0.05 山 西 13.89 13.97 -0.08 湖北（0） 13.81 13.77 0.04 辽 宁 13.92 13.96 -0.04 安徽（300） 14.26 14.26 0.00 吉 林 13.87 13.87 0 湖南（100） 13.74 13.74 0.00 黑龙江 13.83 13.83 0 四川（-200） 13.91 13.91 0.00 福 建 14.47 14.47 0 江西（100） 13.94 13.94 0.00 广 东 15.08 15.07 0.01 山东（0） 14.29 14.31 -0.02 广西(-200) 13.54 13.54 0 江苏（500） 14.25 14.3 -0.05 云 南 14.04 14.04 0 河北（-100） 14.14 14.18 -0.04 贵 州 13.67 13.67 0 内蒙（-800） 13.89 13.92 -0.03 ...

股指期货全景日报 2025/6/12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF主力合约（2506） IH主力合约（2506） | 3883.6 2682.2 | +2.2↑ IF次主力合约（2509） +0.6↑ IH次主力合约（2509） | 3812.2 2639.8 | -2.8↓ -5.2↓ | | IC主力合约（2506） | 5780.0 | +12.0↑ IC次主力合约（2509） | 5593.0 | +6.8↑ | | IM主力合约（2506） | 6156.8 | +4.8↑ IM次主力合约（2509） | 5896.6 | +0.2↑ | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1201.4 | +5.0↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 1896.4 | +14.0↑ | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 376.8 | -6.0↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 3097.8 | +19.0↑ | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 2273.2 | +8.0↑ IM-IH当月合约价差 | 347 ...

Core Insights - Despite better-than-expected CPI data in May, inflation pressures remain persistent, particularly in core goods and services, with wages for the lowest 25% income group falling below pre-pandemic levels [1][5] - The latest CPI data reflects a downward trend, but the underlying inflation dynamics, especially in services and core goods, indicate ongoing challenges [2][3] - The "super core" inflation, excluding housing services, is rising, which is a priority concern for the Federal Reserve [3] Inflation Dynamics - The overall CPI data shows minimal changes across its four components: food, energy, core goods, and services, with services continuing to dominate inflation trends [2] - The "ordinary person inflation index" tracked by Strategas indicates that essential living costs have consistently outpaced income growth during Biden's presidency, which could impact political stability [4] Wage Trends - Average wage growth remains slightly above 4%, but this stability is at the expense of the lowest income group, whose wages have declined below pre-pandemic levels [5] - The sharp rebound in oil prices adds uncertainty to the inflation outlook, with significant daily increases observed [5] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Market expectations for Federal Reserve policy remain largely unchanged, with anticipated rate cuts in September and December, despite ongoing inflation concerns [7] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and inflation suggests that the Federal Reserve may opt for a cautious approach, delaying rate cuts until later in the year [7]

有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：库存压力不减 盘面反弹表现乏力 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 12 日 逻辑：近期煤焦价格整体呈现触底反弹走势，主要是前期价格跌幅较 大，空头止盈、估值修复叠加外贸形势好转等因素推动价格走强，但基本 面暂无明显改善，价格反弹依然承压。现货端，产地焦炭价格第 3 轮调降 后暂稳运行，自 5 月中旬至此 3 轮累计下跌 170-185 元/吨，后期仍存降 价预期；焦煤现货同样保持弱稳运行，尚未有反弹表现。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 近期随着煤价 ...

Core Insights - Airbus executives stated that supply chain pressures have "significantly improved" [1] Group 1 - The company has experienced a notable enhancement in its supply chain situation, which is expected to positively impact production and delivery timelines [1]

Group 1 - The survey conducted by Reuters among 105 economists reveals a strong consensus on the timing and frequency of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with many predicting at least two cuts within the year [3][5] - Economists express concerns over the current state of the U.S. economy, highlighting challenges such as fluctuating inflation pressures, a weakening labor market, and increased uncertainty in the global trade environment [3][4] - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to alleviate pressures on corporate financing and consumer credit, thereby stimulating economic activity and supporting recovery [3][5] Group 2 - Economists forecast a modest growth of 1.4% for the U.S. economy in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, indicating a cautious optimism despite various limiting factors [4] - The U.S. economy faces structural adjustments, with traditional manufacturing competitiveness declining and emerging industries not yet providing a robust growth engine [4] - The potential for government economic stimulus policies, along with strong technological innovation and a large domestic consumer market, may provide support for economic growth [4][5] Group 3 - The relationship between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments and U.S. economic growth expectations is closely linked, with timely rate cuts expected to enhance market liquidity and boost investment and consumption [5] - Failure to adjust monetary policy in line with market expectations could lead to increased downward pressure on U.S. economic growth [5] - Changes in the Federal Reserve's policy will also have significant implications for global financial markets, affecting dollar liquidity, exchange rate fluctuations, and capital flows [5]

能源化工期权 2025-06-12 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 原油 | SC2508 | 476 | 1 ...

1. 供应端压力持续: FG2509 1001 / 995 / 7 / 1006 / 985 / 143.46 348.16 1121 / 028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 全国浮法玻璃日熔量稳定在 15.68 万吨、冷修与复产产线并存,供应压力未明显缓 解。市场传闻沙河烧煤产线拟改造阀门切换"煤制气"，成本上煤制气现金流成本低于 天然气、若落地可能会降低区域成本,但短期仅为情绪驱动,实际供给暂未明显变化。 2.需求端疲软: 影响因素分析: 梅雨季影响厂库出货及成交,深加工企业采购偏谨慎。地产政策托底预期升温,但 终端需求传导尚未显现。 当前玻璃库存仍处于相对高位,需求端持续偏弱叠加梅雨淡季的来临,预计玻璃期 货价格或延续震荡偏弱走势。 风险揭示及免责声明 本报告由国金期货有限责任公司制作，未获授权不得修改、复制和发布。 本报告基于公开资料、第三方数据或实地调研资料,我公司保证已经审慎审核、 甄别和判断信息内容,但无法绝对保证材料的真实性、完整性和准确性,报告中的信 息或所表达的意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，本公司对报告内 容及最终 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Mexico indicates that while financial conditions have eased since the last report, they remain within a tightening range, and stress tests confirm that the banking system has sufficient capital and liquidity to handle adverse situations [1] Group 1 - Financial conditions in Mexico have shown some relaxation since the last report [1] - The current financial conditions are still categorized as tight [1] - Stress tests conducted affirm that the Mexican banking system possesses adequate capital and liquidity to withstand unfavorable scenarios [1]

◎记者张欣然 6月，有逾4万亿元的同业存单集中到期，政府债净融资额仍处于高位，叠加前期存款利率下调对揽储形 成掣肘，银行体系负债端面临多重考验。 在此背景下，银行体系对流动性的需求愈发迫切。"银行中长期负债压力难以通过市场行为自发缓解， 亟需监管部门支持，特别是央行通过货币政策工具投放合理且充裕的流动性。"明明说。 进入6月，银行面临的流动性压力进一步加大。浙商证券固定收益首席分析师覃汉表示，6月将有逾4万 亿元的同业存单到期，叠加季末考核因素，银行有调整资产负债结构的需求。而近期一级存单发行利率 仍处于高位，反映出银行在负债端的压力未见缓解。 国海证券固收首席分析师靳毅表示，当前银行还面临政府债净融资额仍处高位的考验。据其测算，6月 国债与地方政府债净融资规模或达1.4万亿元，虽较5月有所回落，但在历史维度上看仍属高位。 存单利率上行势头放缓 虽然当前银行负债端承压，但在央行持续呵护与市场情绪缓和的共同作用下，6月资金面有望保持平稳 态势。目前，央行已通过加大逆回购投放和提前释放政策预期，为市场提供有力支撑，存单利率上行势 头已有所放缓，流动性紧张情绪初步缓解。 在多重因素影响下，5月存单利率明显上行。对此 ...