证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-07-16 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20250715：城市更新的空间有多大？——2025 年 7 月中央城市 工作会议点评 城市更新"预计能够落地多大规模？"十五五"期间，城市更新预计至少 能够完成 4.48 万亿元总投资，折合每年近 9000 亿元。未来，城市更新的 潜在需求预计将主要来自城中村改造、老旧小区改造与城市基础设施建 设改造。其中： （1）老旧小区改造与城市基础设施建设改造：2024 年， 国家发改委披露"2023-2024 年安排中央预算内投资、增发国债和超长期 特别国债资金超过 4700 亿，重点支持地下管网改造、城镇老旧小区改造 等城市更新项目。今后几年，城市更新仍是政府投资的支持重点。"如果 未来保持这样的投资强度，那么在"十五五"期间,即使不考虑财政资金 的撬动作用，老旧小区改造与城市基础设施建设改造预计至少也可贡献 2.35 万亿元新增投资。 （2）城中村改造：2020 年，全国城镇家庭居住 的自建房总建筑面积估算值约为 6.66 亿平方米。剔除 2025 年底之前可 能已完成改造部分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Urban Work Conference marks a significant shift in China's urban development strategy, transitioning from rapid growth to stable development, emphasizing urban renewal and quality improvement in real estate [1][2][9] Group 1: Urban Development Strategy - The conference highlights the importance of urban renewal as a key strategy for high-quality urban development, aiming to create modern, resilient, and livable cities [2][4] - The focus is on optimizing urban structures, enhancing quality, and promoting green transformation, while ensuring urban safety [2][7] Group 2: Real Estate Market Implications - Urban renewal is expected to stimulate both supply and demand in the real estate market, with potential support from government initiatives such as special bonds and REITs [3][4] - The emphasis on constructing a new real estate development model reflects a shift towards quality competition rather than mere scale expansion, with a focus on green building standards and improved housing quality [5][9] Group 3: Policy and Implementation - The conference calls for local governments to prioritize urban renewal, which is anticipated to lead to more supportive policies and encourage diverse participation in urban development [4][5] - The ongoing efforts in the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing are seen as critical to revitalizing the real estate market and addressing housing needs [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The systematic deployment of urban development strategies aims to achieve a balance between supply and demand in the real estate market, with expectations of stabilizing housing prices [9] - Future competition among real estate companies is likely to focus on green technology, operational capabilities, and deep regional engagement [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Urban Work Conference marks a significant shift in China's urban development strategy, emphasizing the optimization of a modern urban system as a key task for achieving socialist modernization by 2035 [1][2]. Group 1: Key Tasks and Trends in Urban Development - The conference identified seven key tasks for urban work, with the optimization of the modern urban system being the foremost priority, highlighting its role in coordinating various urban developments and addressing imbalances [1][2]. - The construction of modern urban systems is seen as crucial for supporting stable development and addressing issues of unbalanced and uncoordinated growth [1][2]. - The urbanization rate in China has surpassed 66%, transitioning from "incremental expansion" to "stock quality improvement," indicating a critical phase for urban system construction [2][3]. Group 2: Development Trends in Urban Systems - There is an accelerated development of group-style and networked modern urban clusters and metropolitan areas, which are now recognized as essential for efficient resource allocation and innovation [3]. - The role of county towns in urbanization has become more prominent, with 1,866 county towns accommodating 250 million people, serving as key nodes for urban-rural connections [3]. - The concept of coordinated development among large, medium, and small cities has evolved to focus more on human-centered approaches, ensuring that different city sizes contribute effectively to the urbanization of the agricultural population [3]. Group 3: Deepening Urban-Rural Integration - Urban-rural integration is gaining more attention, with a focus on achieving mutual empowerment through multi-dimensional integration beyond just the flow of resources [4]. Group 4: Institutional Innovations for Urban Development - There is a need for flexible and diverse urban classification standards that go beyond traditional population metrics to include economic density and ecological capacity [5]. - Innovative fiscal support mechanisms are required in light of declining land revenues, with a focus on developing new tax sources from digital and green economies [5][6]. - The establishment of a unified national standard for basic public services is essential to accommodate the increasing frequency of inter-regional population movement [6].

Group 1 - Xi Jinping's speech at the Central Urban Work Conference has sparked enthusiastic responses in Shaanxi, emphasizing the need for high-quality urban development through optimization of urban structure, energy transformation, quality enhancement, green transition, cultural continuity, and governance efficiency [1] - The conference highlighted the importance of optimizing the modern urban system, with a shift from large-scale expansion to quality improvement and efficiency enhancement in urban development [1] - Companies like Shaanxi Tiandi Construction Co., Ltd. are actively participating in urban renewal projects, focusing on improving living environment quality and optimizing public space facilities [1] Group 2 - The conference called for the cultivation of an innovative ecosystem to achieve breakthroughs in new productive forces, encouraging institutions like the Xi'an Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics to focus on original innovation in photonics technology [1][2] - The city of Shangluo is working towards its goal of "one capital and four districts," using urban park construction as a means to enhance urban functions and improve living conditions [1][2] - Yulin City is committed to achieving comprehensive compliance with air quality standards by 2024, focusing on ecological protection and sustainable development through six major initiatives [1][2] Group 3 - The conference emphasized the construction of resilient cities, with research teams developing high-precision hydrodynamic models to assess flood risks and enhance urban resilience against extreme weather events [2] - The promotion of a civilized city is a key focus, with local governments implementing regulations and initiatives to foster a culture of good behavior and community engagement [2] - The Xixian New Area is addressing urban challenges like traffic congestion by creating a smart city platform that integrates data from various departments to improve governance and service efficiency [2]

央视网消息：时隔十年，中央城市工作会议再度召开，此次，中央城市工作会议明确提出了五个"转变"五个"更加注重"。专家表示，与2015年中央城市工作 会议当中的五个"统筹"的要求相比，新提法凸显了我国城市发展理念的深刻变革与持续健全，标志着城市工作重心全面转向内涵式、高质量发展新阶段。 鲍家伟：我们在大的目标之下，我们要通过推动城市的高质量发展，以及抓住城市的内涵式发展这样的一个主线，让新的一种发展理念能够在城市生根落 地，让老百姓能够在城市里面生活得更加便利，更加舒适，使老百姓的获得感、幸福感、安全感更强。 此外，此次中央城市工作会议对于城市建设目标也有新表述，内涵更加丰富。 中国城市规划学会副理事长 王凯：这次会议，提出了建设创新、宜居、美丽、韧性、文明、智慧的现代化人民城市，这么一个总的目标，这个和我们过去 提的城市发展，主要是宜居、韧性、智慧这三个目标（相比），它的内涵更加丰富，也更加全面，也更加符合现代化城市，高质量发展的客观要求。 此次中央城市工作会议明确提出，城市工作必须在理念与实践上实现五个"转变"，并相应做到五个"更加注重"，即城市工作要深刻把握、主动适应形势变 化，转变城市发展理念，更加注重以 ...

真的，卖不逢时的新房太多了。 拖了那么久，如今入市的新房，定局几乎写在了明处。 一部十几年的旧改书 每一个旧改项目，都是楼市的一部绕不开的史诗。 最近，位于南山西丽的珠光村旧改一期A项目更名为珠光和山悦花园。 | 申请单位 | 深圳市宝祥源投资发展有限公司 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 批准名称 | 珠光和山悦花园 | | | 汉语拼音 | ZHU GUANG HE SHAN YUE HUA YUAN | | | 曾用名称 | 风格城事花园 | | | 数据来源 | 地名批准 | | | 批准时间 | | | | 所属区 | 南山区 | | | 所属街道 | 桃源街道 | | | 详细地址 | 南山区桃源街道珠光四路路西面路 | | | | | 四同 | 据了解，项目预计今年下半年有望入市，市场吹风价7w+/平。 十几年的时间，可以说是用了一代人的青春才换来了如今的进度。 这就意味着这个拖了近15年的旧改，终于迎来了实质性的结果。 珠光和山悦花园部分原是南山西丽的风格城事花园。 而风格城事花园属于珠光村旧改范围。 而珠光和山悦花园共2个建设地块，规划建设6栋超高层住宅及1栋保障房和回迁房 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the news is the launch of the first batch of urban opportunity "dual lists" in Yuhang District, which includes 20 government demand scenarios and 20 enterprise capability scenarios aimed at fostering technological innovation and application [1][2] - The "demand list" focuses on areas such as artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, industrial upgrading, urban governance, and public services, providing enterprises with a platform for experimentation and showcasing their capabilities [2] - The "capability list" integrates cutting-edge scientific breakthroughs and local innovation, gathering 20 hard-tech solutions that cover various fields including low-altitude logistics, green energy, smart security, urban governance, smart healthcare, and smart education [2] Group 2 - Specific technological advancements highlighted include brain-computer interface technology that allows individuals with mobility impairments to control devices through thought, and "CT+AI" technology that enhances cancer and chronic disease screening efficiency [2] - The integration of smart technologies in urban infrastructure is illustrated by real-time traffic data collection and analysis, which improves commuting safety and efficiency, with autonomous vehicles achieving a 98% on-time rate [2][3] - Cultural empowerment through technology is showcased with AR glasses enhancing visitor experiences at archaeological sites, and AI tourism systems providing personalized multilingual itineraries for international tourists [3] Group 3 - The collaboration between government and enterprises is emphasized, where the government provides real urban scenarios for testing new technologies, while companies like Shenhao Technology apply their underwater robots for bridge safety inspections [3] - Yuhang District is actively creating diverse innovation demonstration centers focusing on frontier fields such as spatial computing, brain-computer interfaces, and artificial intelligence, aiming to attract leading tech companies [4]

热情迎接和帮助游客，能够体现城市的温度；关怀城市中的每一个普通人、尊重普通劳动者，也能够体 现城市的温度，不应该有内外之别 山西大同，一名游客的孩子不慎将儿童手表装进垃圾袋遗忘在列车上。第二天上午，游客拨打12345热 线求助，由大同市城市管理局"接单"处理。最终，两名环卫工人花4个多小时翻了8吨垃圾找到儿童手 表。 帮助游客找到丢失物品的暖心故事常见，但此次，事件在网络上引起热议。有人为城市办事效率和环卫 工人的辛苦付出点赞，也有不少人质疑此举在浪费人力物力、不尊重环卫工人的劳动、不体恤环卫工人 大热天翻垃圾的辛苦，更有对这名游客身份背景的猜测。 《 人民日报 》（ 2025年07月16日 12 版） (责编：岳弘彬、牛镛) 城市为游客提供服务，当然包括对遇到困难的游客及时提供帮助。至于如何帮助，要根据每件事的具体 情况评估，细致考量需要调动的人力、物力资源，尽量避免或降低对城市运转、居民生活和正常工作的 影响。重要的是，如果援助过程耗时耗力，需要助人者付出较多劳动，更要考虑周全，用恰当的方式进 行奖励和补助。令人欣慰的是，大同当地环卫公司将对这两名环卫工人给予奖励，并拿出一部分经费成 立"助人为乐"基金， ...

"苏超"为什么能走红破圈？一个重要原因就在于，激发了群众广泛参与的热情。畅快"玩梗"，跨城观 赛，比拼志愿服务，宣介特色风物，无处不是"群众唱主角"。 "人民性"正是人民城市的根本属性。活力蕴藏在人气之中，城市运营要始终眼中有人，用接地气的办法 吸引人、凝聚人 近两年，参观美院毕业展成了时尚，不少地方甚至"一票难求"。比如，中央美术学院毕业展日均接待量 超万人次，其中逾七成是非专业的市民；四川美术学院毕业展单日最高接待量超3万人次。 不禁联想到线上线下持续火热的"苏超"，以及前不久刚落下帷幕的上海国际电影节。如今，人们奔赴一 座城的理由丰富多样，可以是一次展览，也可以是一场球赛、一部电影，甚至是一顿美食，这为我们观 察城市运营提供了新的思考维度。 城市是现代化的重要载体，城市的核心是人。习近平总书记强调："把让群众生活更舒适这一理念融入 城市规划建设的血脉里、体现在每一个细节中。"提高城市吸引力，就要从"城市如何更好服务人"破 题。 群众性是成就城市现象级IP的关键变量。 透过"苏超"看治理，相关部门注重精准识别并及时响应公众需求。比如，江苏在省级层面协调13个地级 市，提升办赛能级、优化赛事组织；各城市提升 ...

山东青岛市市北区跨海大桥高架桥下的公园。 闫 婧摄 城市里，不乏立交桥、高架桥等桥梁。如何开发利用桥下空间，更好地造福于民，是检验城市工作精细 化、人性化程度的一项指标。 近日，记者在多地展开探访，看桥下空间怎样进行更新与改造、带来便利与欢笑。 上海市苏州河中环立交桥下 运动社交成风尚 傍晚，上海市民李先生下了班，从地铁北新泾站出站，直奔苏州河中环立交桥下的篮球场。他跟朋友提 前约好了场地，要打两个小时的球。 "这边离我家近，而且开在桥下，打球不怕扰民。"李先生说，"环境也很好，桥柱上还画了画，看了都 让人身心愉悦。" 上海市苏州河中环立交桥下，市民在踢足球。 新民晚报记者 李铭珅摄 这片桥下空间，位于长宁区苏州河与中环高架交会处，占地约3.5公顷，曾因为地形复杂、荒草生长而 乏人问津。2020年，随着黄浦江与苏州河岸线贯通工作的推进，长宁区决定对这片桥下空间进行更新改 造。 改造项目由区建管委联合区规划资源局、体育局、北新泾街道等多方参与，区交通管理中心负责具体实 施，另有两家公司分别负责设计、运营。改造目标很明确：不能简单铺一块绿地，而是要让这片地真正 成为服务居民的城市公共空间。 设计方提出了"动物象限 ...