Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's staff has presented a clear stagflation forecast during the May meeting, which may serve as the foundational framework for the upcoming Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) [1] Group 1: Economic Predictions - The Federal Reserve staff indicated a substantial slowdown in the labor market, leading to an expected rise in the unemployment rate this year [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain elevated throughout the forecast period, extending to 2027 [1] - Inflation is expected to rise "significantly" this year, with a smaller price increase anticipated in 2026 [1] Group 2: Inflation Risks - The staff noted that if their inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 (projected at 2%) are incorrect, it is more likely to be an underestimation rather than an overestimation of inflation risks [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that the impact of trade policies on economic activity is greater than previously expected [1] Economic Growth Projections - The staff's forecasts for real GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 have been revised downward compared to the predictions made in March [1] - The announced trade policies are expected to result in a more significant drag on actual economic activity than previously assumed [1] Productivity and Potential GDP - Trade policies are anticipated to lead to a slowdown in productivity growth, which will reduce potential GDP growth in the coming years [1] Output Gap and Labor Market - The output gap is expected to widen significantly during the forecast period due to earlier and larger-than-expected demand drag compared to supply responses [1] - The labor market is projected to weaken considerably, with the unemployment rate expected to exceed the staff's estimate of the natural rate by the end of this year and remain above it until 2027 [1]

美联储会议纪要：截至5月会议通胀和失业风险有所上升 金十数据5月29日讯，最新公布的美联储5月会议纪要显示，美联储工作人员在上次会议上承认，未来几 个月他们可能面临"艰难的权衡"，既面临通胀上升，又面临失业率上升。美联储官员对经济衰退风险增 加的预估支撑了这一前景。通胀和失业率同时上升将迫使委员们决定，是优先收紧货币政策来对抗通 胀，还是通过降息来支持经济增长和就业。随着经济适应特朗普政府提出的更高进口税，"几乎所有与 会者都表示，通胀可能比预期更持久"。美联储预计，由于关税的影响，今年的通胀率将"显著"上升， 而就业市场"预计将大幅走弱"，到今年年底，失业率将升至充分就业的长期预期水平以上，并将在两年 内保持这一水平。 ...

美联储会议纪要：通胀上升和失业率上升的风险增加。 ...

今日重点关注的财经数据与事件：2025年5月29日 周四 ① 待定 英国央行行长贝利致辞 ② 02:00 美联储公布5月货币政策会议纪要 ③ 04:30 美国至5月23日当周API原油库存 ④ 20:30 加拿大第一季度经常帐 ⑤ 20:30 美国至5月24日当周初请失业金人数 ⑥ 20:30 美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率修正值 ⑦ 22:00 美国4月成屋签约销售指数月率 ⑧ 22:30 美国至5月23日当周EIA天然气库存 ⑨ 次日00:00 美国至5月23日当周EIA原油库存 ⑩ 次日00:00 美国至5月23日当周EIA库欣原油库存 ⑪ 次日00:00 美国至5月23日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 ⑫ 次日02:00 美联储理事库格勒致辞 相关链接 ...

德国5月失业人数变动 3.4万人，预期 1.2万人，前值 0.4万人。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Germany's seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for May show an increase of 34,000 individuals, significantly higher than the expected increase of 10,000 and the previous value of 4,000 [1] Group 2 - The data indicates a concerning trend in the labor market, suggesting potential economic challenges ahead for Germany [1] - The sharp rise in unemployment may impact consumer confidence and spending, which are critical for economic growth [1] - Analysts may need to reassess their forecasts for Germany's economic performance in light of these unemployment figures [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that Germany's seasonally adjusted unemployment total for May is 2.963 million, an increase from the previous value of 2.922 million [1]

Core Points - Sichuan will continue to implement the stable job retention policy and skills enhancement subsidy policy to support enterprises in stabilizing employment and enhancing workers' employability [1][2] Group 1: Stable Job Retention Policy - Enterprises that have paid unemployment insurance premiums for a full 12 months and have not laid off employees or have a layoff rate not exceeding 5.5% can apply for unemployment insurance stable job retention [1][2] - For enterprises with 30 or fewer employees, the layoff rate must not exceed 20% of the total number of insured employees to qualify for the retention policy [1][2] - Large enterprises will receive a 30% refund of the actual unemployment insurance premiums paid in 2024, while small and micro enterprises will receive a 60% refund [2] Group 2: Skills Enhancement Subsidy Policy - Employees who have participated in unemployment insurance for more than 12 months and have obtained vocational qualification certificates or skill level certificates can receive subsidies of 1,000 yuan for junior (level 5), 1,500 yuan for intermediate (level 4), and 2,000 yuan for senior (level 3) certificates, once per person per year [1][2] - Only one application can be made for the same occupation and skill level, and individuals cannot receive both the skills enhancement subsidy and vocational training subsidy simultaneously [2] - Individuals who already hold a higher-level certificate or have received the corresponding subsidy will not be eligible for lower-level certificate subsidies [2] Group 3: Expansion of One-time Employment Subsidy - Sichuan plans to expand the scope of the one-time employment subsidy policy to include insured social organizations, such as social groups, foundations, and non-enterprise units [2]

领取失业保险金不会导致养老保险个人账户储存额减少。 近日，有网友咨询，领过失业保险金，基本养老保险个人账户里的钱会变少吗？对此，人力资源社会保障部相 关负责人表示，按照《中华人民共和国社会保险法》规定，养老保险与失业保险等其他社会保险基金分别建 账、分账核算。失业保险金从失业保险基金中列支，领取失业保险金不会导致养老保险个人账户储存额减少。 劳动者在职期间参加失业保险的，失业后符合有关条件，可以领取失业保险金。具体来说： 申领条件及申领标准 ▪ 参保缴费1年以上； ▪ 非因本人意愿中断就业； ▪ 用人单位和本人累计缴费满1年不足5年的，领取失业保险金的期限最长为12个月；累计缴费满5年不足10年 的，领取失业保险金的期限最长为18个月；累计缴费10年以上的，领取失业保险金的期限最长为24个月。 凭社会保障卡或身份证件向失业保险经办机构申领就可以啦！ 领取失业保险金对缴纳养老保险费有影响吗？ 根据有关文件规定，失业人员在领取失业保险金期间，可以个人身份缴纳基本养老保险费，未出现依法应当停 止领取失业保险金情形的，经办机构不得停发失业保险待遇。 也就是说，领取失业保险金并不影响失业人员以个人身份继续缴纳养老保险费 ...