Core Viewpoint - The proposed merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang has sparked significant interest in the capital market, particularly leading to a surge in trading activity in related Xinchuang-themed ETFs [1][2]. Group 1: Merger Announcement and Market Reaction - The strategic restructuring plan between Zhongke Shuguang and Haiguang Information was announced on May 25, with their stocks suspended from trading starting May 26, marking a significant event as the first absorption merger transaction between listed companies under new regulations by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [2]. - The suspension of these stocks has led investors to seek alternative investment opportunities, particularly in Xinchuang-themed ETFs, which include both companies among their top holdings, accounting for over 10% of the total weight in the indices they track [2]. Group 2: ETF Performance and Fund Inflows - As of June 3, the total scale of seven Xinchuang-themed ETFs reached 2.544 billion yuan, a more than 110% increase from 1.188 billion yuan on May 23, with a net inflow of 1.338 billion yuan since the suspension of the individual stocks [2]. - Several ETFs experienced significant growth in scale, with the Guotai Xinchuang ETF increasing from 124 million yuan to 578 million yuan (over 360% growth), and the Fuguo Xinchuang ETF more than doubling from 58 million yuan to 247 million yuan [3]. Group 3: Risk Management and Fund Company Responses - In response to the influx of funds and the inability to adjust holdings due to stock suspensions, several fund managers, including Fuguo Fund and Guotai Fund, issued risk warnings and implemented purchase restrictions to protect existing investors from potential dilution of their interests [5]. - The actions taken by fund companies reflect concerns over tracking errors and deviations due to the rapid inflow of capital into ETFs, highlighting the speculative nature of this investment strategy amid the ongoing merger developments [5].

我觉得这些新消费里面，应该会有一些公司可以长期跑出来，比如泡泡玛特如果还能继续搞出下一个labubu，那还会继续牛，继续有100%以上的增长。 但其他一些业绩不好的新消费股也炒到这么高估值，很明显是不合理的。就是蹭着新消费，对标泡泡玛特说IP经济的概念故事割韭菜。 但这对我们组合配置的消费基金影响不大，因为恒生消费指数目前的PE估值也才18倍左右，而2021年A股的中证消费指数PE估值是55倍PE。所以，目前 消费股炒作也只局限于部分新消费股，持有指数ETF的话不用过分担心，我们持有的大部分消费股的估值依然便宜而且股东分红回报率不低。 数据来源：Wind 2、部分老读者朋友知道，我们小丸子也是在2021年接近行情顶部的时候买房。不过幸运的是，她当初没有听她家里人的意见去郊区买"远大新"，而是选 择了在中山大学附近买了套"老破小"。由于周边有多所学校的教师人群住房需求支撑，所以她那里租售比不低。再加上加装了电梯，电梯带来的升值抵消 了部分房价下行，估计整体就跌10%左右。 每次跟小丸子聊起，她都觉得当初买老破小是很明智的选择。相比之下，她的表姐在2020年买了郊区的增城碧桂园云顶。我查了下，好家伙，这是广 州" ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Bank of America indicates that the 1-month HIBOR has significantly dropped from 4% to 0.58% in one month, raising questions about its potential recovery to 4% given the current SOFR remains at 4% [1][7]. HIBOR and SOFR Dynamics - The report emphasizes that the behavior of HIBOR and the willingness for HKD arbitrage transactions will differ from previous weak-side Currency Board (CU) cycles due to the current bearish USD environment and strong inflows into HKD driven by positive momentum in the Chinese stock market [1][4]. - Bank of America predicts that the 1-month HIBOR will peak at 2.60% in Q4 2025, which is lower than the nearly 3% implied yield for the same period [2][3]. HIBOR Forecasts - The revised forecasts for HIBOR and USD/HKD exchange rates are as follows: - Current: 1-month HIBOR at 0.59%, 3-month HIBOR at 1.32%, USD/HKD at 7.85 - Q3 2025: 1-month HIBOR at 1.00%, 3-month HIBOR at 1.50%, USD/HKD at 7.85 - Q4 2025: 1-month HIBOR at 2.60%, 3-month HIBOR at 2.70%, USD/HKD at 7.85 - Q1 2026: 1-month HIBOR at 2.60%, 3-month HIBOR at 2.80%, USD/HKD at 7.83 - Q2 2026: 1-month HIBOR at 2.60%, 3-month HIBOR at 2.80%, USD/HKD at 7.81 - Q3 2026: 1-month HIBOR at 2.60%, 3-month HIBOR at 2.80%, USD/HKD at 7.78 - Q4 2026: 1-month HIBOR at 2.40%, 3-month HIBOR at 2.60%, USD/HKD at 7.75 [3]. Market Conditions and Arbitrage - The report suggests that the current level of HIBOR is primarily driven by supply factors, particularly the aggregate balance, which has increased significantly from a recent low of 45 billion HKD to 171 billion HKD [16][19]. - The interest in USD arbitrage transactions is expected to remain low due to market expectations of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, which will hinder the demand for long USD/HKD positions [26][30]. Conclusion on HIBOR Trends - Bank of America concludes that the current weak-side CU cycle is likely to be shorter than previous cycles, lasting until Q3 2025, as the HIBOR-SOFR spread narrows and reduces the motivation for further HKD arbitrage transactions [30].

| 标 的 | 平值期权隐 | 排 名 | 标的30天历 | 排 名 | 标的当日 | 排 名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | ps2507 | 2.4% | 1 | 1.9% | 5 | 3.9% | 5 | | sc2507 | 2.4% | 2 | 2.3% | 2 | 4.5% | 2 | | si2507 | 2.3% | 3 | 1.6% | 12 | 1.8% | 28 | | lc2507 | 2.3% | 4 | 1.7% | 10 | 2.6% | 16 | | sn2507 | 2.1% | 5 | 1.1% | 27 | 1.7% | 29 | | ao2507 | 2.0% | 6 | 2.6% | 1 | 4.8% | 1 | | br2507 | 2.0% | 7 | 2.0% | 3 | 3.9% | 6 | | fg507 | 1.8% | 8 | 1.4% | 14 | 2.7% | 14 | | sm507 | 1.8% | 9 | 1.9% | ...

2.月差：沪深300IF2506-2507价差为39.2，上证50IH2506-2507价差为30.2，中证500IC2506-2507价差为 68.8，中证1000IM2506-2507价差为91.2。 1.基差：沪深300 IF2506合约贴水26.34，上证50 IH2506合约贴水17.22，中证500 IC2506合约贴水 51.21，中证1000 IM2506合约贴水69.17； 6月4日股指期货套利监测日报 金十期货6月4日讯， ...

国债期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/6/4 一、国债期货宏观及市场展望 • 周度宏观及消息面 • 国债后市展望 上周国债期货震荡。资金方面，上周央行净投放6566亿元。上周十年期国债利率略降；长期看，十年 期国债利率处于历史低位。 技术上，T2509合约短期价格位于40日均线附近。操作方面，国债市场价格高位震荡，利率仍处低位 区间，中长期看上方空间有限，短期逢低买入。 国内消息：中国5月财新制造业PMI录得48.3，较4月下降2.1个百分点，2024年10月来首次跌至临界点 以下。 国外消息：美国财政部公布了其最新国债回购操作的结果，其规模却达到了前所未有的程度：高达100亿 美元，这是美国财政部有史以来规模最大的单次国债回购操作。 二、国债期货行情 • 价格走势：上周国债期货区间震荡 数据来源：博易大师、华金期货 三、国债收益率变化 • 收益率变化：上周长期利率下降，收益率利差收窄 | 日期 | 3M | 1Y | 2Y | 5Y | 10Y | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-23 | 1.4138 | 1.4461 | 1.471 ...

2025年06月03日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.396 | 102.562 | 106.020 | 106.100 | 108.855 | 108.850 | 119.76 | 119.65 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.346 | 102.510 | 105.870 | 105.950 | 108.850 | 108.825 | 119.6 | 119.5 | | | 涨跌 | 0.050 | 0.052 | 0.150 | 0.150 | 0.005 | 0.025 | 0.160 | 0.150 ...

先锋期货期权日报 2025-6-3 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现，未来的回报也无法保证，投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下，我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任，投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下，我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标 的 | 平值期权隐 | 排 名 | 标的30天历 | 排 名 | 标的当日 | 排 名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | ps2507 | 2.4% | 1 | 1.9% | 5 | 3.9% | 5 | | sc2507 | 2.4% | 2 | 2.3% | 2 | 4.5% | 2 | | si2507 | 2.3% | 3 | 1.6% | 12 | 1.8% | 28 | | lc2507 | 2.3% | 4 | 1.7% | 10 | 2.6 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warns of a significant economic slowdown and inflation resurgence in the second half of 2025, primarily driven by tariff policies [1][3] - Waller predicts that if current trade policies persist, the core PCE inflation rate in the U.S. could exceed 3.5% by Q3 2025, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3] - The unemployment rate may rise from the current 4.1% to over 4.8% as companies are forced to lay off employees to offset rising costs [3] Group 2 - MEXC leveraged trading platform is known for offering up to 125x leverage, supported by a three-tier risk control system, including dynamic margin mechanisms and dual-direction hedging [3][5] - XBIT decentralized exchange enhances trading security with a "zero trust" architecture, executing all orders via smart contracts and allowing for anonymous trading without KYC [5][6] - The combination of MEXC and XBIT provides a unique strategy for investors to hedge against economic downturns, utilizing leverage to capture volatility while ensuring safety through decentralization [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 专业研究·创造价值 美国贸易政策升温 核心观点 铜：美国贸易政策升温，铜价或偏强运行，可参考 3 月行情 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 2025 年 6 月 3 日 铜铝周报 5 月下旬，铜价震荡运行。低库存给予期价支撑，旺季过后消费 预期下降，库存去化放缓给予期价压力。端午期间，美国贸易政策有 所升温。消息面上，5 月 30 日特朗普称将把钢铝关税提高至 50%。该 举动或导致市场对关税的预期再度上升，进而催生套利交易，推升铜 价，可参考 3 月铜价走势。但在经历过 3 月行情后，市场可能对此敏 感性会有所下降。预计铜价震荡偏强运行，上方关注 7.9-8 ...