文/国务院发展研究中心市场经济研究所副研究员 王瑞民 对我国而言，建设统一大市场的症结主要在交易成本，交易成本若能够通 过相应的改革实现有效节约，市场的统一程度就会相应提升。实现这一目 标的突破口是以自上而下的基础制度规则统一实现交易成本节约，特别是 要素市场的交易成本节约。 统一大市场是中国式现代化不可或缺的一环，有利于将中国经济国内大循环中的"规模但不经济"症结充 分"解锁"，并通过本土市场效应转换为国际大循环竞争中新的比较优势，助推国际国内双循环的新发展 格局跃上新台阶。需要清醒地认识到，统一大市场是一个动态的历史进程，不能毕其功于一役，交易成 本是理解中国式统一大市场及其历史进程的一把钥匙。这是因为，影响全国范围内市场"连成片"的因素 无非是运输成本带来的自然分割与地方保护等交易成本带来的行政性分割。考虑到我国"铁公基"建设实 际上已经远远超前，行政性分割日益成为统一大市场进程中的主要矛盾。换言之，交易成本节约本质上 可视为中国式统一大市场进化的底层逻辑，交易成本下台阶，市场统一程度就会上台阶。 我国从计划经济向市场经济转轨过程中，地方政府从"直接的生产者"转变为"间接的征税者"，角色转变 重塑了地方 ...

2025-06-27 19:40:54 作者：狼叫兽 2.资金安全机制：银行级隔离账户是合规平台的标配。优质平台将客户资金存放于汇丰、渣打等持牌银行的独 立账户，与运营资金物理隔离，部分平台还引入区块链溯源技术实现交易全流程可验证。 3.交易成本透明度：点差、佣金、隔夜利息构成主要成本。伦敦金合理点差区间为0.3-0.5美元/盎司，警惕点差 在非交易时段突然扩大至1.2美元的平台。 4.技术风控能力：订单执行速度低于0.1秒、滑点率控制在0.3%以内是行业标杆。在2025年4月黄金单日下跌3% 的极端行情中，技术强韧的平台使客户爆仓风险降低60%。 5.智能风控工具：负余额保护、动态杠杆调整（如非农数据前自动降至1：20）等功能必不可少。金荣中国的AI 风控系统能在金价触及关键点位时自动触发平仓指令，为投资者构筑安全网。 6.服务响应体系：7×24小时多语种客服、实战教育资源和模拟账户构成服务"铁三角"。 二、2025主流合规平台 2025年贵金属投资迎来爆发式增长。我国黄金ETF持仓量较去年同期激增217%，超六成新增投资者通过电子交 易平台入场。 不过，繁荣背后通常暗藏风险旋涡，中国互联网金融协会最新报告 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the emotional connection between Nike's CEO Elliott Hill and Rory McIlroy's recent golf victory, which symbolizes hope and resilience for the company amidst its struggles [1][3] - Nike has faced significant challenges, including a 12% decline in sales and an 86% drop in profits for the fourth quarter, leading to a nearly 40% decrease in stock price over the past year [2][5] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, Nike reported global revenue of $46.3 billion, down from $51.4 billion in 2024, with Greater China revenue decreasing from $7.5 billion to $6.585 billion [10] - The diluted earnings per share for fiscal year 2025 was $2.16, a 42% decline [10] - In the fourth quarter, North America revenue fell by 11%, EMEA by 10%, Greater China by 20%, and APLA by 3%, with EBIT declining across all regions, particularly in Greater China by 45% [10][14] Strategic Changes - Elliott Hill has initiated significant changes since taking over as CEO, including a shift back to focusing on athletic performance and rebuilding relationships with wholesale partners [10][11] - The company is implementing price increases in the U.S. to counteract tariff pressures and is reducing reliance on Chinese exports for footwear [7][16] - Nike aims to restore double-digit operating profit margins and expects a decrease in sales decline for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 compared to the 12% drop in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 [7][10] Market Challenges - The Greater China market remains a significant challenge, with a 20% revenue decline attributed to deeper inventory adjustments and high discounting [14] - Nike is focusing on enhancing its brand image through sports and is planning to introduce new product concepts tailored to the Chinese market [14][16] Product Focus - Nike's running category has shown signs of recovery, with a high single-digit growth in running products, driven by investments in models like Pegasus and Vomero [19][20] - The company is also launching new innovative products, including Vomero Plus and Vomero Premium, to strengthen its position in the competitive running market [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing competition in the AI chip market, particularly how major tech companies like Google and Meta are accelerating their development of custom chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia's GPUs, with predictions that ASIC shipments will surpass Nvidia's AI GPU shipments as early as next year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Nvidia has historically dominated the AI chip market, holding over 80% market share in AI servers, while ASIC-based servers currently account for only 8% to 11% [2][4]. - Google is expected to ship between 1.5 million to 2 million of its self-developed AI chips (TPUs) this year, while Amazon's AWS is projected to ship 1.4 million to 1.5 million ASICs, bringing their combined shipments close to half of Nvidia's estimated annual GPU shipments of 5 million to 6 million [2][4]. Group 2: Cost Efficiency - The key advantage driving tech giants to develop their own chips is the reduction in Total Cost of Ownership (TCO), with ASICs potentially saving 30% to 50% in TCO compared to GPUs [3]. - Google claims its TPUs can deliver three times the performance of Nvidia GPUs per unit of energy consumed, highlighting the efficiency of custom chips [3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Meta is focusing on launching its new high-performance ASIC chip "MTIA T-V1" in Q4 of this year, aiming to outperform Nvidia's next-generation AI GPU "Rubin" [5]. - Despite ambitious plans, Meta faces production challenges due to limited advanced packaging capacity from TSMC, which can only provide 300,000 to 400,000 units, creating a bottleneck [5]. Group 4: Nvidia's Response - In response to the competitive threat, Nvidia has opened its proprietary "NVIDIA NVLink" communication protocol to facilitate integration with other companies' CPUs or ASICs, aiming to retain its major clients [6]. - Nvidia's established software ecosystem, CUDA, remains a significant barrier for competitors, as it allows AI developers to efficiently build and deploy applications, maintaining Nvidia's competitive edge [6].

分析师：美国债务成本仍令人担忧 金十数据6月27日讯，BlueBay首席信息官Mark Dowding在报告中说，随着美国预算案料在国会休会前 未来一个月内敲定，对长期债券收益率的担忧将持续存在。在未来几周内，达成协议的压力意味着共和 党内部会做出妥协。即使计入2500-3000亿美元关税收入，财政赤字率仍将维持在GDP的7%左右。"对 美国债务水平不断上升的担忧不太可能在短期内减轻。"BlueBay认为特朗普政府不会推行增税或实质性 支出削减，降低赤字的唯一可能性在于借贷成本显著下降。 ...

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | --- | --- | | | 2 | | | 2 | | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 国际花生情况及行情回顾 3 | | 第三部分 | 国内花生基本面情况 4 | | | 4 | | | 4 | | | 5 | | | 8 | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 9 | | | 免责声明 10 | 2025 年 6 月 27 日 花生种植面积增加，种植成本下降 第一部分 前言概要 花生研发报告 花生半年报 银河期货 第 2 页 共 10 页 花生半年报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 花生研发报告 第二部分 国际花生情况及行情回顾 第 3 页 共 10 页 图 1：2011-2024 年主要花生生产国产量（千吨） 图 2：2024 年主要花生生产国（万吨） 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 2011-2024年主要花生生产国产量 中国 美国 塞内加尔 苏丹 印度 尼日利亚 坦桑利亚 1900, 37% 710, 14% 430, 8% 308, 6% 200, 4% 170, 3% 175, 4% 110, 2% 1149, 22% 2024年主要 ...

Core Insights - The China Business Conditions Index (BCI) for June recorded at 49.3, a slight decline from May's 50.3, indicating a contraction in business conditions [1] Group 1: Business Indices - The BCI is composed of four sub-indices, with two declining, one rising, and one remaining unchanged this month [1] - The Business Sales Expectations Index decreased from 57.3 in the previous month to 54.6 this month [1] - The Business Profit Expectations Index also saw a decline, dropping from 46.6 last month to 43.8 this month [1] - The Business Financing Environment Index remained stable at 49.1 [1] - The Business Inventory Expectations Index increased slightly from 48.3 last month to 49.8 this month [1] Group 2: Cost and Price Expectations - The Labor Cost Expectations Index experienced a minor decline from 60.7 last month to 59.9 this month [1] - The Total Cost Expectations Index also saw a small decrease, from 62.7 last month to 59.2 this month [1] - The Consumer Goods Price Expectations Index fell from 45.2 last month to 43.8 this month [1] - The Intermediate Goods Price Expectations Index increased slightly from 33.6 last month to 36.6 this month [1]

Core Viewpoint - Burberry's proactive price reduction strategy has led to a significant recovery in its stock price, increasing over 70% since mid-April 2023, despite facing severe challenges in the luxury goods sector [2][6]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, Burberry reported revenues of £2.461 billion, a 17% decrease year-on-year, with adjusted operating profit down 94% to £26 million [2][5]. - Comparable store sales fell by 12% for the fiscal year, with the Asia-Pacific market experiencing a 16% decline [3][5]. - The fourth quarter showed a narrowing decline in comparable store sales to 6%, better than the market expectation of 7.78% [5]. Strategic Changes - New CEO Joshua Schulman has implemented a strategic shift focusing on classic products and reducing prices, moving away from previous high-end strategies [6][7]. - The company plans to cut approximately 1,700 jobs, which is nearly 20% of its global workforce, aiming to save £60 million by fiscal year 2027 [6][8]. Market Dynamics - Japan was the only market to show growth for Burberry, with a slight increase of 1%, primarily driven by spending from Chinese tourists [4]. - The outlet channel has become increasingly important, with Burberry being referred to as the "Outlet Queen," as it has performed well despite challenges in high-end retail locations [8][10]. Inventory and Pricing Strategy - Burberry has faced significant inventory issues, leading to a 7% decrease in total inventory at constant exchange rates [11]. - The company's gross margin fell to 62.5%, down 470 basis points at constant exchange rates, primarily due to discounting actions to manage excess inventory [11].

"中国的造船企业技术水平不断提高，质量也在改善，如果维持当前的建造量，差距只会越来越大"，今 治造船相关人士表现出危机感。如果成功将JMU收为子公司，则二者的总建造量将跃居全球第4…… 日本联盟将跃居世界第四 如果今治造船成功把JMU纳为子公司，那么今治的年建造量将提高至约500万总吨，达到可竞争全球第 二的规模。此次举措旨在通过在材料采购上发挥规模优势，在成本层面对抗中韩企业。造船在日美关税 谈判中成为重要筹码，在国家安全保障领域的重要性越来越高，今治造船将把建造的船型扩大至舰艇， 以此来满足市场需求。 根据日本国土交通省海事局的数据，2024年今治造船的建造量为328万总吨，位居世界第6位，JMU为 141万总吨，位居世界第12位。如果将今治造船和JMU的数据简单相加，则总量达到469万总吨，将超越 韩国韩华海洋（Hanwha Ocean，370 万总吨），跃居全球第4位。 虽然与总吨位为1333万吨的中国船舶集团（CSSC）相比尚有差距，但规模已接近排名第二的韩国HD现 代（614万吨）和排名第三的韩国三星重工（561万吨）。 由于全球海运景气，日本国内造船业乍看起来表现良好。JMU的2024财年（截至 ...

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 盘整 油价重回基本面定价，消费旺季 VS 供给增加，油价盘整。本周一周二油 价大幅下跌，地缘风险溢价被挤出，油价重回基本面定价。OPEC+从 4 月 份开始正式增产，当前产能处于增产初期，加上当前处于消费旺季，油价 下方有一定支撑，但随着增产量逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大。策略：轻 仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【490-520】 LPG 反弹偏空 地缘缓和，成本端下降，液化气承压。近期地缘溢价挤出，成本端原油回 落；下游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端 利好，港口库存连续下降。策略：成本端利空，可轻仓试空。PG【4200-4300】 L 空头反弹 上中游库存显著下滑，库存压力缓解，成本端焦煤反弹。华北基差转负， 淡季继续补库意愿不足，华北基差为 19（环比+71）。本周检修力度增加， 预计产量继续下降，近期装置重启增多，预计下周产量增加。需求淡季， 下游补库力度放缓，关注后续库存去化力度。策略：短多长空。L 【7250-7400】 PP 空头反弹 现货市场成交乏力，短期跟随成本反弹。华东基差为 81（环比-35）。近 期检修力度加剧，预计 ...