Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market faced a significant downturn in 2022, with a sharp decline in both new and second-hand housing sales, reflecting a shift from a previously booming market to a state of "poor operation" [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - From January to July 2022, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 23.1% year-on-year, totaling 780 million square meters [1]. - The second-hand housing market also showed weakness, with over 13 cities experiencing more than 100,000 listings [1]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The pandemic and economic pressures have led to a slowdown in household income growth, causing many families to abandon their home-buying plans. The central bank's survey indicates a significant increase in savings willingness, while investment and consumption intentions have weakened [3]. - Urbanization rate in China has reached 64%, limiting future growth potential in the housing market. The transition from large-scale shantytown renovations to old city renovations has diminished the purchasing incentives previously provided by demolition compensation [3]. Group 3: Price and Supply Issues - In August, the average housing price in 60 key cities reached 17,593 yuan per square meter, with typical homes costing between 2 to 3 million yuan. This high price level severely restricts purchasing power, especially as the average monthly income for ordinary residents ranges from 3,000 to 6,000 yuan [6]. - The housing ownership rate in China is as high as 96%, with 41.5% of families owning two or more properties. An estimated 10 million vacant homes exist nationwide, indicating a saturated market where demand has been largely met [6]. Group 4: Demographic Trends - The continuous decline in marriage rates and birth rates has further weakened housing demand. From 2013 to 2021, the marriage rate dropped from 9.9‰ to 5.4‰, significantly impacting the need for housing as high property prices and child-rearing costs deter young people from marrying and buying homes [8]. - The combination of high housing prices, low income, oversupply, and demographic changes has created a complex situation for the real estate market, indicating that future challenges will require collaborative efforts from the government, businesses, and individuals to achieve sustainable development [8].

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 30 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-30） | | | | 铁矿：近期铁矿石现货成交偏弱，基差继续收窄。上期全球铁矿石发运总 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 量、到港量环比回升，整体处于近年来同期高位水平，铁矿发运有冲量预 | | | | | 期。产业端淡季，五大钢材产量增，铁水淡季不淡，铁矿港口库存仍旧在 | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 去库，240 以上的高铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水状况。铁矿 | | | | | 石整体呈现供应逐步回升、需求相对低位、港口库存步入累库通道的局面， | | | | | 铁矿供需过剩格局不变，短期在煤焦安全检查影响炒作下，以及铁水高位 | | | | | 支撑下，板块跟随反弹，后期关注铁水动向。 | | | | | 煤焦：近日主产区环保检查升级，内蒙乌海及临汾地区停产煤矿及洗煤厂 | | | | | 较多，部分煤矿和洗煤厂暂停拉运，焦煤现货供应自本月中旬以来持续回 | | | 煤焦 | 反弹 | 落，煤焦迎来强势 ...

房地产 证券研究报告 2025 上半年土地市场总结 行业追踪（2025.6.21-2025.6.27） 行业报告 | 行业研究周报 从全国表现看，2025 年前 5 月，国有土地使用权出让收入 11281 亿元，同比下降 11.9%。 根据中指院统计，2025 年上半年（截至 6 月 25 日），300 城住宅用地供应面积-18.6%，成 交面积-6.8%，土地出让金同比+24.5%，均溢价率 10.3%，较去年同期提升 6.2pct。分能 级看，一/二/三线城市推出面积分别同比+14.4%/-2.1%/-24.6%，成交面积分别同比 +17.6%/+15.7%/-14.5%，土地出让金分别同比+47.3%/+36.5%/-1.1%，平均溢价率分别 为 11.9%/14.3%/3.6%。从城市表现看，2025 上半年 TOP20 城市出让金占全国比重为 66% （2024 年全年：51%），集中度继续提升。上半年土地出让金领先的城市分别为杭州/北京/ 上海/成都，分别为 1010/1006/638/366 亿元，溢价率同样明显优于其他城市。其他如武汉、 南京、郑州、天津等城市土地市场持续调整，绝大多数底价出让 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond financing for real estate companies is approaching a "recovery" critical point, with positive signals emerging in the market [2][5]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Market Confidence - In June, New City Development launched a USD 300 million bond issuance, marking the first dollar bond issued by a private real estate company this year, which helps boost market confidence [2][3]. - High-quality private enterprises like Midea Real Estate and Binjiang Real Estate successfully issued bonds in the first half of the year, indicating a recovery trend in the bond market [2][4]. - The issuance of bonds by New City Development and Greentown China is seen as a significant step in restoring investor confidence in Chinese real estate companies [3][4]. Group 2: Debt Repayment and Future Outlook - The year 2025 is projected to be a peak year for debt repayment for New City Development, with a total of CNY 10.9 billion in domestic bonds and USD 1 billion in overseas bonds maturing [3][6]. - The overall bond repayment scale in the real estate sector is decreasing, with a significant reduction in the amount due from CNY 7.94 trillion in 2021 to an expected CNY 200 billion after 2028 [7]. - The credit situation in the real estate sector has improved, with a notable reduction in default issues since 2025, although tail risks still need to be monitored [7]. Group 3: Trends in Bond Types and Financing Tools - A total of 256 real estate bonds have been issued this year, with medium-term notes and private placements being the most active types [4][6]. - Innovative financing tools such as asset-backed securities (ABS), rental housing REITs, and green bonds are expected to become new growth points in the future [6]. - The use of credit enhancement measures by private enterprises has become a notable trend, reflecting a shift towards more secure financing options [6].

——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 总量研究/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 6 月 26 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 | 表 | | 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 | | 6 | 月 26 | 日） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新房（6 | 月 | 1 日-6 月 | 26 日） | 二手房（6 | 月 | 1 日-6 月 | 26 日） | | | 城市能级 | 同比 | | 较 5 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | | 较 | 5 月 | | 样本城市 | -14% | -扩大 | -1 PCT | 样本城市 | -1% | -收窄 | | +11 PCT | | （39 城） | | | | （16 城） | | | | | | 一线城市 | -3% | 转负 | -10 PCT | 一线城市 | 9% | +收窄 | | -1 PCT | | （4 城） | | | | （2 城） | | | | | | 二线城市 | -12% | -收 ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 06 月 29 日 加快构建新发展模式，一二手成交 周环比回升 看好 ——地产及物管行业周报（2025/06/21-2025/06/27） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 告 房地产 ⚫ 地产行业数据：一二手房成交环比回升，新房成交推盘比下降。 上周（25/6/21- 25/6/27）34 个重点城市新房合计成交 379 万平米，环比+51%；其中，一二线环比 +56%、三四线环比-0.2%；6 月一手房月成交同比-13%，较 5 月-3.5pct；其中，一二线 同比-11%、三四线同比-26%，分别较 5 月-1pct 和-32pct。上周 13 个重点城市二手房成 交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by homeowners trying to sell their properties in a declining real estate market, highlighting the trend of homeowners becoming real estate agents to better understand the market dynamics and improve their selling chances [1][3][11]. Group 1: Selling Challenges - Homeowners are experiencing significant pressure to lower their asking prices due to a mismatch between their expectations and market realities, leading to prolonged selling times and frequent price negotiations [6][12][19]. - The article notes that in a down market, properties are often listed at prices significantly higher than recent sales, creating a gap between listing and selling prices [6][10][19]. - The case of a homeowner, who listed a property at 384 million yuan but faced aggressive price negotiations, illustrates the difficulty of achieving sales at desired prices [1][6]. Group 2: Role of Real Estate Agents - Many homeowners are entering the real estate industry as agents to gain insights into the selling process and market conditions, often motivated by their own need to sell properties [3][4][18]. - The article highlights that real estate agents face their own challenges, including a high volume of listings and a lack of buyers, which complicates the selling process [3][6][19]. - The experience of agents like 罗迪, who successfully navigated the market by leveraging personal connections and understanding buyer psychology, contrasts with the struggles of many others [18][19]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The real estate market is characterized by an oversupply of listings and a lack of demand, leading to a trend of "price for volume" where sellers must lower prices to attract buyers [8][10][19]. - Data indicates that in major cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, second-hand housing prices have seen significant declines, with Guangzhou experiencing a 6.6% year-on-year drop [10][15]. - The article emphasizes that the rental market remains resilient, with high occupancy rates in major cities, suggesting a shift in strategy for some homeowners who choose to rent rather than sell [15][16].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 如何理解产业政策空间？ ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Tablary] 今年 Q3 政策宽松可能迎来时间窗口，但市场对于政策空间的理解存在分歧。我们认为：1）常 规层面的产业政策空间确实相对有限，效果仅对应脉冲级别。2）但超常规层面的产业政策上限 还很高，剩下的主要是相机抉择问题；典型如针对居民购房的结构性货币或财政工具，也包括 公积金层面深度降息和提高额度，以及其他很多可延迟或者降低居民购房负担的政策手段。当 前开发类个股位置不高，政策宽松的必要性提高且时间点逐步临近，可择优配置等待交易窗口； 而具备稳定现金流和潜在高股息的商业、经纪和物管龙头，则是中长线配置机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 如何理解产业政策空间？ 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 核心观点 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 止跌回稳的政策目 ...

宏 观 研 究 货币政策 2025 年 06 月 29 日 对地产和物价的关注度提升 ——2025 年二季度货币政策委员会例会解读 事件：6 月 27 日，央行发布中国人民银行货币政策委员会 2025 年第二季度例会全文。 ⚫ 经济形势分析：社会信心持续提振，但仍面临国内需求不足、物价持续低位运行等挑战。 央行对上半年经济表现给予高度评价，指出"我国经济呈现向好态势，社会信心持续提振"。 较一季度例会"我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进"的表述更显积极，尤其突出社会信心 的修复。后续央行或根据经济形势与预期变化动态调整政策节奏。 ⚫ 热点议题：持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势；做好"两重""两新"等重点领域的融资支持。 风险挑战方面，会议在延续"国内需求不足"判断的同时，新增"物价持续低位运行"的 表述。事实上，一季度货币政策执行报告已提升对物价的关注度，专栏六分析实体经济供 求关系及物价变动，明确提出"价格调控思路上，也要从以前的管高价转向管低价，从支 持规模扩张转向高质量发展，从防垄断转向防无序竞争。" ⚫ 货币政策思路：灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏。 关于后续政策操作，会议提出"灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏"，与 ...

周观点：央行强调加大收储推进力度 央行召开 2025 年第二季度例会，房地产层面，会议要求着力推动已 出台金融政策措施落地见效，加大存量商品房和存量土地盘活力度， 持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势，完善房地产金融基础性制度，助力构 建房地产发展新模式。 我们认为，在当前 5、6 月，房地产复苏动能减弱，市场下行压力增 加的背景下，7 月将迎来新一轮的政策宽松周期，今年以来出台的包 括收储、城中村改造及对房企的融资宽松政策，预计在三季度将加大 实施力度，助力行业止跌回稳。建议关注困境反转类房企：金地集团、 新城控股等；保持拿地强度的龙头招商蛇口、绿城中国、保利发展、 滨江集团等；多元经营稳健发展的地方国企浦东金桥、外高桥等。 销售回顾（6.21-6.27） 重点监测 32 城合计成交总套数为 2.4 万套，环比上周增长 41%；2025 年累计成交总套数为 40.6 万套，累计同比下降 4.6%。其中，一线城 市成交 6085 套，环比上周增长 36.2%，2025 年累计成交 11.6 万套， 累计同比增长 9.6%；二线城市成交 15455 套，环比上周增长 47.4%， 2025 年累计成交 24.2 万套，累 ...