Core Viewpoint - In the first half of the year, government bond yields experienced a rise and subsequent decline, influenced by monetary policy adjustments and market conditions [1] Market Performance - In Q1, the bond market faced a correction due to three main factors: market adjustments to the "moderately loose" monetary policy expectations, tight funding conditions due to restrained monetary operations, and better-than-expected fundamental data from January to February [1] - By the end of June, the yields for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds were 1.36%, 1.51%, 1.65%, and 1.85% respectively, showing changes of 22.35 basis points, 9.13 basis points, -2.90 basis points, and -6.25 basis points compared to December 31 [1] Policy Dynamics - The first half of the year saw the implementation of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions. On May 8, the 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 1.4%, leading to a corresponding 10 basis point drop in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1] - On May 15, the reserve requirement ratio was reduced by 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, with the average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions dropping from 6.6% to 6.2% [1] Bond Supply and Demand - As of June 27, the issuance of special bonds accelerated, with a total of 20,973 billion yuan in new special bonds issued, achieving 47% of the issuance target [1] - The refinancing of special replacement bonds reached a cumulative issuance of 18,031 billion yuan, with a progress rate of 90% [1] - The net issuance of government bonds was 33,802 billion yuan, with a progress rate of 50.7%, including the early issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special government bonds compared to the previous year [1] Strategy Outlook - The current funding conditions are loose, with the overnight DR dropping below the policy rate to 1.4%, but the bond market lacks strong upward momentum [1] - In the absence of further interest rate cuts, the bond market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with an optimistic forecast for the 10-year government bond yield's low point at 1.50% [1] - If interest rates are cut by 10-20 basis points, the low point could potentially drop to 1.3% - 1.4% [1]

Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yield Trends - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell by 5 basis points (BP) to 4.23%, marking a two-month low, down 19 BP from the end of May and nearly 35 BP from the end of 2024 [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 3 BP to 3.72%, significantly down 52 BP from the 4.24% level at the end of 2024, with the yield spread between 10-year and 2-year bonds widening by 17 BP in the first half of the year [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - In the first quarter, uncertainty from Trump's tariff policies and a slowing U.S. economy heightened risk aversion, leading investors to flock to Treasuries, causing yields to decline. However, a sharp sell-off occurred in early April as hedge funds reduced leverage, raising liquidity concerns in the Treasury market [4] - Optimism in the market improved in June due to effective trade negotiations, while persistent low inflation reignited investor confidence in potential rate cuts. The market's expectations for rate cuts have significantly increased, with most traders anticipating a reduction to the 3.5%-3.75% range by December [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concerns that tariffs could raise inflation but indicated that if inflation remains controlled, rate cuts could occur sooner rather than later. He refrained from specifying a particular meeting for potential rate adjustments [4] - The general consensus among economists is that the impact of tariffs on inflation may have a lagging effect, with upcoming inflation data expected to reflect the true trend of price increases [5] Group 4: Legislative Impact on National Debt - The U.S. Senate approved a procedural vote for the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which is projected to increase U.S. national debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade, exceeding the House version by approximately $800 billion. The current national debt stands at $36.2 trillion [6] - Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned that the bill would increase the debt burden and undermine the U.S.'s global standing, with actual debt growth potentially exceeding $4 trillion due to temporary tax cuts and expanded borrowing [7] Group 5: Future Debt Challenges - Apollo economists highlighted that inflation risks and a growing budget deficit are likely to exert upward pressure on Treasury yields in both the short and long term. The Treasury will need to refinance $9 trillion in debt over the next 12 months, with rising debt repayment costs [7]

今年上半年国债期货面临一定压力，尤其是一季度跌幅不小，二季度债市再度企稳，十年期国债期货整 体呈宽幅震荡走势。截至6月27日收盘，持仓量最高的T主连合约由年初的109.301微跌至109.045，最受 市场关注的十债加权利率由年初的1.67%小幅下跌至1.644%。同时，利率期限结构整体偏向平坦化，长 期限品种尤其是TL韧性较强，短期限品种以下行为主，主要原因是流动性边际收敛。 今年国债期货市场走势可分为三个阶段： 第一，1月2日至3月17日，TS与TF率先出现调整，T与TL在2月高位盘整后开始回调。该阶段债市的核 心驱动是资金面收紧。 第二，3月18日至4月9日，债市高波动延续，市场情绪明显修复。资金面边际转松叠加中美贸易摩擦压 制风险偏好，债市全面反弹。 第三，4月10日至今，债市先抑后扬。中美贸易谈判取得积极进展使债市情绪转弱，之后贸易摩擦的影 响逐步淡化，央行通过买断式逆回购投放流动性，货币政策对债市的支撑较强，期债市场开始反弹。 笔者认为，年内债市将延续牛市格局，但与2024年相比，利率下行的路径或更为曲折，收益率曲线进一 步平坦化。投资策略可着重把握市场节奏，套利方面，预计做平收益率曲线策略（比如 ...

Group 1 - The current U.S. stock market presents more investment opportunities compared to long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, according to BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder [1] - Rieder emphasizes that short-term bonds are more attractive from a yield perspective, while long-term bonds are increasingly correlated with stock market volatility, losing their risk-hedging capability [1] - The expected return on equities, particularly growth stocks, is appealing, with a net asset return rate of 19%, suggesting significant potential growth over two years compared to long-term bonds yielding less than 5% [1] Group 2 - Rieder anticipates that long-term bonds will eventually become attractive as inflation and interest rates decline, but currently, the market trend favors short-term bonds due to concerns over the expanding U.S. federal deficit [2] - The expectation of a steeper yield curve indicates that long-term bonds are expected to underperform compared to short-term bonds, a trend that has gained popularity this year [2]

*道指涨近300点； 市场概述 美国总统特朗普的90天关税减免将于下周到期，投资者正在等待美国与其贸易伙伴之间任何贸易协议的 宣布。加拿大周末宣布取消数字服务税，以促进与美国的贸易谈判。此前，特朗普上周五表示，美国将 暂停与加拿大的所有贸易讨论。 斯巴达资本证券（Spartan Capital Securities）首席市场经济学家卡迪洛（Peter Cardillo）表示："人们希 望最终能与美国贸易伙伴达成某种一致，这将防止通货膨胀失控。因此，你有良好的盈利前景，美联储 可能会在9月份降息，这导致了大量的购买势头。" *芝加哥6月PMI不及预期； *回购派息预期提振金融板块，高盛涨超2%。 周一美股全线上涨，标普、纳指再度联袂创历史新高，对贸易协议和可能降息的希望缓解了投资者的不 确定性。截至收盘，道指涨275.50点，涨幅0.63%，报44094.77点，纳指涨0.47%，报20369.73点，标普 500指数涨0.52%，报6204.95点。 二季度，道指累计上涨4.98%，纳指上涨17.75%，标普500指数上涨10.57%。 与此同时，美国参议院共和党人将试图推动特朗普的"大而美"法案，特朗普希望 ...

02/10年期美债收益率利差跌2.220个基点，报+50.466个基点，6月份累涨0.797个基点，二季度累涨 16.921个基点。 两年期美债收益率跌2.87个基点，报3.7192%，6月份累跌17.83个基点，二季度累跌19.27个基点、整体 交投于4.0592%-3.4305%区间。 周一（6月30日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率下跌4.89个基点，报4.2280%，6月份累计下跌 17.24个基点，二季度累计下跌2.14个基点、整体交投于4.6247%-3.8564%区间。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has dropped to its lowest level since early May, decreasing by 4.7 basis points to 4.235% [1]

Group 1 - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has reached its lowest level since early June, currently down by 4.3 basis points to 4.241% [1]

高盛预计美联储将于9月份降息，此前预计要到12月才会行动。 美国国债收益率跌幅扩大，10/30年期美债收益率刷新日低。 ...

Group 1 - The yield spread between Italian and German 10-year government bonds has decreased by 1 basis point to 87 basis points, potentially reaching the narrowest closing level since 2010 [1] - The yield spread between Italian and French 10-year government bonds has fallen to below 20 basis points, marking the first occurrence since 2007 [1]