#时事热点我来评# 6.6万亿美债倒计时，特朗普上台后的最大劫难眼瞅着就要来了，这笔债务就像一座大山，压得川普寝食难安。贸易战，本以为是个大招，结果呢？搞成了 大笑话，美债利率飙升，全球都在甩卖，借新还旧的游戏眼看就要玩砸了。 特朗普"百日执政"，所有动作都是为了搞钱，这是他任期的第一个金融大考，结果被他搞的一地鸡毛。40天后，6.6万亿美债"炸弹"就要爆炸了，这可不是 个小数目，摊到每个美国佬头上人均要1.8万，想想都头疼。这果然应了咱们中国那句老话，因果报应！ 想想疫情那会，美国靠着美债收割全球财富，那叫一个风光，现在可好，刀扎自己身上了。但说实话，这6.6万亿在以前根本不算事，毕竟，美国年年都有 几万亿美债到期，多的时候七八万亿，少的时候五六万亿，美国都能从容应对。 以前他们靠的是"发新债还旧债"的把戏，日子过得那叫一个滋润，而且这套以贷养贷的玩法，美国已经用了上百年，为啥能一直这么玩呢？全靠二战后建立 的美元大循环。 老美先用军事和科技实力，让美元成了硬通货，然后在国际市场发行美债，让西欧、日韩、中东，这些国家买美债，他们拿到美元后，再买美国的高科技和 尖端武器，美元又能回流到美国手里，形成了完美闭环 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting held by China at the UN aimed to address the impacts of unilateralism and bullying on international relations, with a focus on criticizing the United States' recent tariff policies [1][3][6]. Group 1: Meeting Overview - The meeting was conducted in the "Arria Formula" format, allowing for informal discussions among UN member states, with over 80 countries represented, setting a new record for participation [5]. - The meeting highlighted the ongoing geopolitical tensions between China and the US, with both sides exchanging strong criticisms [3][6]. Group 2: China's Position - China's UN representative, Fu Cong, emphasized the need for countries to work together to counter unilateralism and uphold the international order based on international law [3][6]. - Fu criticized the US for its tariff policies, claiming they violate WTO rules and disrupt global economic stability [3][6]. Group 3: US Response - The US representative, Wu Ting, attempted to defend US actions by listing accusations against China, including its trade policies and international security threats, but faced skepticism from most attending countries [3][6]. Group 4: Global Economic Context - Recent reports from the International Monetary Fund and the UN Conference on Trade and Development indicate a downward revision of global economic growth forecasts for 2025, reflecting a potential economic downturn affecting all countries [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the perception of Trump's Middle East policy as aggressive and dismissive of international norms, with accusations of the U.S. acting as a bully and igniting conflict in the region [1][2][3][7] - Trump's support for Israel's actions in Gaza and his perceived disregard for Palestinian rights reflect a colonial mindset, as noted by various analysts [2][3] - The U.S. has lost credibility in the Middle East, as indicated by the comments from regional experts who believe that Trump's actions have exacerbated conflicts rather than resolved them [3][4] Group 2 - The Trump administration's approach towards Iran involves a combination of extreme pressure through sanctions and military threats, while simultaneously claiming to seek diplomatic solutions [4] - The U.S. military actions in Yemen have led to further humanitarian crises, raising concerns among Gulf states about the stability of the region [4] - Trump's demands for free passage of U.S. ships through the Suez Canal reflect a broader pattern of perceived economic and political extortion directed at sovereign nations [6][7]

编 辑丨和佳 当地时间4月2 9日，美国总统特朗普第二任期迎来了"百日执政"纪念日。从内政到外交，从经 济到民生，特朗普政府上任以来出台的多项政策遭到广泛批评。有分析认为，特朗普政府的政 策不仅未能带来预期中的稳定增长或国际声誉提升，反而为共和党中期选举前景蒙上阴影，也 使美国在全球治理中的领导地位面临更大不确定性。 据新华社报道，美国媒体4月2 7日发布的一项联合民调结果显示， 仅有3 9%的受访者认可特 朗普的执政表现，其执政支持率创下过去8 0年来美国历任总统同期最低纪录。 复旦大学国际问题研究院院长、复旦大学美国研究中心主任吴心伯4月3 0日在接受2 1世纪经济 报道记者专访时表示，不及格的百日支持率反映了公众对特朗普执政表现的普遍不认可，也预 示着其第二任期开局不利。他认为，虽然民调本身并非政策成败的直接因素，但将在政治层面 产生连锁反应，鼓舞反对派——尤其是民主党加大对其的狙击，从而阻碍其后续政治议程的推 进。 在国内经济层面，吴心伯指出，特朗普政府"破多立少"的改革虽力度空前，却难见成效，反而 引发了一系列经济与社会问题。其中，所谓的"对等关税"对美国经济的冲击成为民众和企业最 直接的不满来源， ...

在PCEP的框架下，中国对东盟的出口额已经暴涨到了1100亿美元。甚至美国的一些盟友国家，也无视美国的关税战，选择降低中国商品的关税，中欧贸易 额直线飚升，已经快要冲破8000亿欧元的大关。 中国在多元化贸易格局下，基本上已经将美国贸易战所带来的负面影响给分化掉了。美国却还在"单边主义"思维下，认为中国必须依赖美国，这显然是错误 的。 美媒都承认输了，华尔街却还有人在嘴硬，称中国赢不了，时间在美国一边。事实真相真的如此？留给美国的时间不多了！ 随着时间的推移，特朗普的关税政策的弊端逐渐显露。美国的内部正在承受着巨大的压力，而与压力同时产生的就是矛盾。一方面支持特朗普；一方面抵制 特朗普，可以说目前美国的内部正在逐渐割裂。 前几天，美国媒体从多角度分析，认为美国最终会输掉这场自己引发的贸易战。而眼看着媒体大肆鼓吹这一说法，华尔街的人坐不住了，其对冲基金的巨头 比尔·艾克曼是特朗普的背后金主之一，他的观点认为中国不可能在这场贸易战中胜出，因为时间站在美国这一边。随着关税政策的持续，中国会有越来越 多的企业开始流失出去。 只能说，比尔·艾克曼和特朗普一样，都太狭隘了。在"霸权主义"思维的误导下，感觉世界都需要依赖美 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration is considering a tiered approach to tariffs on Chinese goods, proposing a 35% tariff on non-security threat items and at least a 100% tariff on strategically significant items, to be implemented over five years [1] - Discussions are ongoing, and Trump has not made a final decision, with potential reductions of tariffs on Chinese imports being considered, possibly down to 50% to 65% [1] - The motivations behind these tariff considerations include signaling positive economic prospects to the U.S. stock market, pressuring other countries for concessions, and maintaining Trump's public image of success [1] Group 2 - China's response to U.S. threats emphasizes the need for dialogue based on equality and respect, criticizing the U.S. for its unilateral pressure tactics [3] - The global trade tensions have escalated since Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," leading to significant declines in global stock markets [3] - Former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis warns that the U.S. strategy is aimed at maintaining its global dominance, and the shift in policy will only occur when the costs to the U.S. ruling class become unbearable [3] Group 3 - At a UN meeting, China strongly refuted U.S. accusations of unilateralism and proposed constructive solutions to global issues, advocating for true multilateralism [5] - China has initiated the "Global Development Initiative Friends Group," which aims to reduce the gap between rich and poor countries, with over 100 nations already participating [5] - The emphasis is on cooperation and dialogue rather than confrontation, highlighting China's role as a builder of peace and contributor to global development [7]

Group 1: Domestic Economic Impact - The Trump administration's "breaking more, establishing less" reforms have led to significant economic and social issues, with the "reciprocal tariffs" causing direct dissatisfaction among the public and businesses [2][4] - The volatility in the stock market has eroded investor confidence, disappointing those who hoped to revitalize the manufacturing sector [2][4] - There is a possibility of the U.S. economy entering a recession, with the negative effects of tariffs exceeding expectations, which could jeopardize the Republican Party's prospects in the upcoming midterm elections [5][4] Group 2: Foreign Policy Challenges - The Trump administration has failed to deliver on promises such as resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours and maintaining a ceasefire in Gaza, indicating a lack of serious diplomatic engagement [6][4] - The administration's simplistic approach to international conflicts has led to a perception of ineffectiveness, with significant diplomatic commitments remaining unfulfilled [6][7] - Proposals such as the annexation of Greenland and regaining control of the Panama Canal have damaged the U.S.'s international reputation and increased anti-American sentiment among allies [7][8] Group 3: Global Leadership and Multilateralism - The withdrawal from international agreements like the Paris Accord and the World Health Organization has significantly weakened U.S. global leadership and influence [8][9] - The trend of "multilateralism minus the U.S." is emerging, as other countries continue to support international mechanisms without U.S. involvement [8][9] - The Trump administration's foreign policy reflects a strategic contraction, focusing resources domestically while reducing engagement in multilateral frameworks [9][10] Group 4: Economic Policy and Trade Relations - The imposition of tariffs has been a central aspect of the Trump administration's economic strategy, aimed at countering China's rise, but has faced backlash and market volatility [13][15] - The administration's inconsistent tariff policies have undermined investor confidence, as unpredictability in trade relations is detrimental to market stability [14][13] - The belief that tariffs can effectively curb China's technological advancement is flawed, as external pressures may instead accelerate China's innovation efforts [17][15]

据彭博社报道，今年3月，中国从加拿大进口730万桶原油创纪录。这一动作背后，是中美贸易博弈下能 源格局的剧烈震荡，也让特朗普坐不住了。 液化天然气（资料图） 可加拿大在拿到中国订单后，态度却让人捉摸不透。加拿大一边靠着中国的订单发展经济，另一边却在 政治上向美国靠拢。加拿大总理卡尼在竞选辩论中宣称中国是"加拿大最大的安全威胁"，还指责中国在 俄乌冲突中"与俄罗斯结盟"。加拿大财政部也宣布对满足特定条件的美国商品免征关税，想借此恢复本 土制造业活力。这种又想赚钱又要抹黑的做法，显然是自相矛盾。 中国和阿联酋的合作也在同步推进。中国和阿联酋签了为期15年、总金额预计达7000亿元人民币的液化 天然气协议，每年运输100万吨液化天然气，而且部分采用人民币结算。这不仅是中阿建交以来最大规 模的能源合作，更是对美元霸权的挑战，推动人民币国际化迈出一大步。同时，中阿合作还带来技术溢 出效应，助力中国能源产业绿色转型。 中美关税战升级，能源贸易首当其冲。特朗普政府对中国加征125%的额外关税，想借此压制中国能源 需求。但中国迅速做出反应，大幅削减从美国的原油和液化天然气进口。数据显示，中国从美国进口的 液化天然气直接降至零 ...

声明丨本文内容均引用权威资料结合个人观点进行撰写，文末已标注文献来源及截图，请知悉。 2008年9月15日，美国第四大投行雷曼兄弟轰然倒塌。 一位员工抱着纸箱走出大楼，镜头记录下了他茫然的表情。那一刻，华尔街的"金融神话"碎了一地，全球经济的"潘多拉魔盒"被打开。 然而，早在数十年前，这场席卷全球的金融灾难已埋下了伏笔——当贪婪的资本遇上失控的美元霸权，这场财富绞杀行动已悄然启动。 雷曼倒下前，疯狂的华尔街 21世纪初的美国家庭，人人都是"房产赌徒"。 美联储连续13次降息，利率低至1%，银行举着"零首付""免收入证明"的广告牌，将贷款塞给服务员、流浪汉甚至宠物狗。 到七十年代的时候，日本的半导体占据了全球80%的份额，日本制造的汽车更是风靡美西方市场。 这些信用极差的"次级贷款"，被华尔街天才们打包成"金融甜品"——抵押贷款证券，贴上AAA评级标签，卖给全球投资者。 更为荒诞的是，当时美国一套实际价值只有25万美元的房子，购房者和银行联手包装下获得60万贷款，银行转手又把这笔贷款包装成60万美元债券转售给投 资者。 这种层层杠杆下，1美元就撬动30美元的泡沫经济，让全美人民陷入"房价永涨"的集体幻觉之中。 ...