【华通白银网7月16日讯】•由于CPI数据缓和了近期降息的希望，金价跌至3330美元下方。 •在特朗普压力和鲍威尔继任不确定的情况下，美联储的可信度成为焦点。 •由于看涨势头在之前的三角阻力位附近消退，黄金在3335美元附近挣扎。 周二，在美国消费者价格指数（CPI）报告增强了美联储可能不会在近期调整利率的预期之后，黄金窄幅波动。 截止撰写本文时，黄金价格低于3330美元，风险情绪和风险情绪的小幅上升限制了上行走势。 6月消费者价格指数（CPI）显示，整体CPI同比上涨2.7%，符合预期，而核心CPI为2.9%，略低于3%的共识，但仍远高于美联储2%的目 标。 通胀放缓不及预期削弱了9月降息前景，美联储降息概率降至54.4%，而利率"长期维持高位"的概率升至44%。 市场的反应反映了利率预期的重新定价，美国国债收益率走强，美元走强。与此同时，特朗普继续向鲍威尔施压。 美国财政部长贝森特在接受彭博社采访时表示："正如特朗普所说，他不打算解雇鲍威尔。" 然而，贝森特周二也表示："按照传统，美联储主席在卸任时也会同时辞去理事一职。此前有很多关于'影子美联储主席'的讨论，称其会 在正式提名前造成混乱。我可以明确说，若 ...

7月16日盘中，多晶硅期货主力合约震荡上行，最高上探至43250.0元。截止发稿，多晶硅主力合约报 42945.0元，涨幅1.50%。 多晶硅期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 瑞达期货（002961） 预计多晶硅有可能开始进行回调 建信期货 多晶硅盘面仍在偏多博弈 东海期货 多晶硅预期偏强 瑞达期货：预计多晶硅有可能开始进行回调 建信期货：多晶硅盘面仍在偏多博弈 后市展望：现货价格持续调涨，N型复投料报价涨至4.55万元/吨。目前现货报价以完全成本为参考，4.2 万左右已经高于头部企业参考完全成本，但产业链集体涨价共振，盘面贴水运行，暂未有集中仓单注 册，盘面仍在偏多博弈，运行区间4-4.5万元/吨之间。 东海期货：多晶硅预期偏强 多晶硅供给低位平稳，6月开工率35.47%，多晶硅样本企业产量9.45万吨，同比下降38%，环比增加 3%。上周市场传言多晶硅将进行成本摸排定价，现货大涨。下游，N型硅片价格上周上涨至1.00元/ 片，本周硅片报价环比持平，本周电池片和组件报价小幅上涨，单晶Topcon电池片(M10)报价0.24元/瓦 （+0.1），Topcon组件(分布式 ...

大家好，简单回顾下今天的市场动态。 A股震荡小幅下跌 7月16日，沪指震荡调整，创业板指冲高回落。截至收盘，沪指跌0.03%，深成指跌0.22%，创业板指跌0.22%。 医药股逆市走强，联环药业、力生制药等多股涨停。 两市共3278只个股上涨，67只个股涨停，1929只个股下跌。 机器人概念股反复活跃，上纬新材、浙江荣泰等多股涨停。 | 880005 涨跌家数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 其中 涨停 | | 67 | | 涨幅 > 7% | | 104 | | 涨幅 5-7% | 1 | 76 | | 涨幅 3-5% | | 256 | | 涨幅 0-3% | | 2842 | | 跌幅 0-3% | | 1784 | | 跌幅 3-5% | | 84 | | 跌幅 5-7% | | 38 | | 跌幅 > 7% | | 23 | | 其中 跌停 | | 8 | | 上涨家数 | | 3278 | | 下跌家数 | | 1929 | | 平盘停牌 | | 211 | | 总品种数 | | 5418 | | 总成交额 | | 14617.34亿 | | 总成交量 | | 109665 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: EC2508 (Container Shipping Index - European Line), T2509, TF2509, TS2509 (Treasury Bonds), AU2510, AG2510 (Precious Metals), RB2510, I2509, JM2509, J2509 (Black Metals), SH2509 (Caustic Soda), M2509, RM509 (Meals), P2509, Y25 (Fats and Oils), CF2509 (Cotton) [2] - **Bearish**: FH2509 (Hogs), SR2509 (Sugar), JD2509 (Eggs), SA2509 (Soda Ash), FG2509 (Glass), RU2509 (Rubber) [2] - **Neutral**: IF2509, IH2509, IC2507, IM2509 (Stock Index Futures), EC2508 (Container Shipping Index - European Line) (for unilateral operation), RB2510 (for unilateral operation), CU2508, AO2509, AL2508, AD2511, ZN2508, SN2508, NI2508, SS2508 (Non - ferrous Metals), UR2509, PX2509, TA2509, PF2508, PR2509, EG2509, V2509, BZ2603, EB2508, BR2508, LLDPE2509, PP2509, MA2509 (Energy and Chemicals), C2509 (Corn), AP2510 (Apples), CJ2601 (Jujubes), PK2510 (Peanuts), Si2509 (Industrial Silicon), PS2507 (Polysilicon), LC2509 (Lithium Carbonate) [2] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Entering a new window for US trade policy negotiations, the index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, with the central position continuing to rise. However, caution is needed when testing key positions. The market shows a structural pattern with sector rotation and shocks [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank's increased purchase of new - style reverse repurchase shows a caring attitude, driving the bond market sentiment to improve. The performance of the capital market during the tax period needs further observation [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The gold price remains in a high - level shock above $3300 per ounce, with certain support at the 60 - day moving average. Silver may have phased impulse - type rises, but chasing high prices should be cautious [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and the 12 - contract is bullish [2]. - **Black Metals**: The sentiment in the black metal market has improved. Steel mills' restocking is supported, and the prices of coking coal, coke, and iron ore are expected to rise [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US restocking has ended, and non - US regions have returned to fundamental pricing. The medium - term oversupply pattern in the copper market remains unchanged [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The performance of different varieties varies. For example, the demand for industrial materials is weak, and the inventory situation is poor. The supply and demand of some chemical products are also facing different challenges [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: The prices of different agricultural products are affected by factors such as import costs, supply and demand, and inventory. For example, the potential supply pressure of hogs is accumulating, and the price of sugar is expected to decline on rebounds [2]. - **Special Commodities**: The prices of glass and rubber are affected by factors such as spot price changes and raw material supply [2]. - **New Energy**: The futures prices of polysilicon are rising in a shock, and the lithium carbonate market has support but also faces fundamental pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Financial Futures** - **Stock Index Futures**: The index has broken through the short - term shock range, but caution is needed at key positions. Suggested to wait and see for now, and consider interval operations and appropriate long - positions on dips for the unilateral strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank's actions have improved market sentiment. Pay attention to the capital market and central bank's open - market operations. Consider appropriate curve - steepening strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a high - level shock, and silver may have phased rises. Consider buying on dips if the gold price breaks through the support level, but be cautious when chasing high prices [2]. **Commodity Futures** - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Expected to be strongly volatile, bullish on the 12 - contract. Suggested to wait and see for unilateral operations and consider long - materials and short - raw - materials arbitrage [2]. - **Black Metals**: The sentiment has improved, and steel mills' restocking is supported. Suggested to go long on dips for iron ore, coking coal, and coke [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US restocking has ended, and the copper market has a medium - term oversupply pattern. Pay attention to the support levels of different varieties [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different varieties have different supply - demand situations. For example, the demand for industrial materials is weak, and the supply of some chemical products is affected by factors such as device restarts and inventory [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: The prices are affected by factors such as import costs, supply and demand, and inventory. Different trading strategies are suggested for different varieties [2]. - **Special Commodities**: The prices of glass and rubber are affected by spot price changes and raw material supply. Suggested trading strategies include waiting and seeing and short - selling on highs [2]. - **New Energy**: The futures prices of polysilicon are rising in a shock, and the lithium carbonate market has support but also faces fundamental pressure. Suggested to wait and see [2].

7月16日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价和昨日类似，整体没啥变化，部分金店继续下跌。今日的金店最高价依旧是 报1008元/克，最低价金店还是上海中国黄金，报价969元/克。今日最高与最低金店间价差仍是38元/克。 受略超预期的美国6月CPI数据影响，昨日美元指数继续回升，金价承压下跌，最终收报3322.99美元/盎司，跌幅0.60%。今 日黄金又有反弹趋势，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3341.44美元/盎司，涨幅0.56%。 昨日公布的美国6月CPI环比增长0.3%，为5个月内最大，核心CPI环比增长0.2%，核心CPI同比增长2.9%。数据略超市场预 期，直接压制了市场对美联储的降息预期。据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，市场对美联储9月降息的预期从昨日的60.1%下 降至今日的54.1%。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： 而Annex Wealth Management首席经济学家Brian Jacobsen指出，关税政策对经济数据的影响已有所显现，但实际冲击程度弱 于市场预期，这一情况或能抑制债券收益率的进一步攀升，为黄金价格创造一定的缓冲空间。 | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年7月16日 ...

Group 1: Robotics Sector - Several companies in the robotics sector have seen significant stock price increases, with Zhejiang Rongtai rising by 10.00%, Jujie Microfiber by 20.02%, and Houtai Co. by 10.01% [2][3] - Other notable mentions include Fuda Co. at 10.01%, Donggang Co. at 9.96%, and Junhe Co. at 9.99%, all attributed to the robotics theme [2] Group 2: Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a surge, with Lianhuan Pharmaceutical achieving 9.98% increase over eight consecutive trading days, and Wanbangde and Aosaikang both rising by 10.01% and 10.02% respectively [5][7] - Zhejiang Zhenyuan and Rundu Co. also reported first board appearances with increases of 9.98% and 10.03% respectively, driven by the innovative drug theme [5] Group 3: Performance Surprises - Over 57% of listed companies have reported positive performance forecasts for the first half of the year, with a nearly 70% increase in total net profit compared to the same period last year [8] - Companies like Dayilong and Huahong Technology have seen stock increases of 10.03% and 10.04% respectively, attributed to strong performance and market conditions [9] Group 4: Electric Vehicles - The automotive sector is thriving, with production and sales exceeding 15 million units in the first half of the year, marking a double-digit growth year-on-year [12] - Companies such as Zhejiang Liming and Tianlong Co. have reported stock increases of 9.98% and 10.00% respectively, linked to the automotive and chip sectors [13] Group 5: AI Applications - The AI application sector is gaining traction, with companies like Puyuan Information and Keri International seeing stock increases of 20.01% and 14.36% respectively, driven by advancements in AI infrastructure [24][23] Group 6: Digital Currency - The digital currency sector is witnessing increased attention, with over five cities mentioning stablecoins in recent discussions, leading to stock increases for companies like Jinshi Technology and Dongxin Peace [28][29]

晨报 铁矿石 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：昨日市场小幅回落，房地产政策增量预期有所落空，但上半年经济数据表现良好， 经济韧性较强。近期市场逐步接受特朗普 TACO 交易，中美关税影响边际减弱，随着美联储降息 预期升温，市场风险偏好趋向于积极，对大宗商品估值水平形成提振；国内货币、财政政策提 前发力，存量政策托底，增量政策仍存在较强预期，宏观面对铁矿石价格存在积极作用。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供应方面：近期外矿发运进入阶段性回落周期，其中澳洲 BHP、FMG 矿山财年冲量后在 7 月 份上旬进入检修期，巴西发运保持相对中位偏高水平；短期到港量预计高位回落，即近端供给 压力将保持相对减弱，现实端供给压力减弱，但近期外盘价格回升至 100 美金/吨，若价格持续 高位或刺激非主流矿供应增加。 成 材：武秋婷 需求方面：国内日均铁水量连续两周小幅回落，本期日均铁水产量 239.81（环比-1.04）， 但当前钢厂盈利率水平较高且高炉利润水平相对可观，叠加短流程全面深度亏损、铁水性价比 仍偏高格局仍改变，预计短 ...

原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 16 日 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：原煤产量录增 盘面震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 观点：近期在市场看涨氛围烘托下，叠加供需压力稍有缓解，期现货 共振走强，短期注意盘面技术性回调。 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、煤矿复产情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公 ...

一、基本面： 隔夜公布美国温和通胀数据一度提振美国股债齐涨，黄金价格受到打压下行，但关税影响仍存、压制美联储降息预期，黄 金闪现回落买进的机会。具体来看，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国6月CPI同比上涨2.7%为2月以来最高纪录，略超过 预期2.6%，前值2.4%；环比0.3%符合预期，前值0.1%，涨幅扩大主要受能源价格上涨影响。美国6月核心CPI同比上涨2.9% 符合预期，高于前值2.8%；环比涨幅从前月的0.1%小幅回升至0.2%，但低于预期0.3%，为连续第五个月低于预期。利率互 换数据显示，交易员认为美联储在9月降息25个基点的概率为62%，并且预计到年底前将累计降息近两次。 关税上面，美国总统特朗普又宣布和贸易伙伴达成协议。印尼是美国前25大贸易伙伴之一，也是全球主要铜生产国，当前 印尼将对进口自美国的商品免关税并购买超百亿美元美国商品，美国将对印尼实行的关税低于上周特朗普威胁的水平。美 东时间7月15日周二，据新华社报道，特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文宣布，美国将对所有进口的印度尼西亚商品 征收19%的关税，而美国对印尼的出口将享受免关税和非关税壁垒待遇。报道称，特朗普表示，他与印尼总 ...

大家好欢迎关注会商期货七时洞察栏目那么今天给大家带来的主题是铁矿石的定价新忙度进展的一个梳理还有近期矛盾的一个观点我是主讲人会商期货研究所的陈小波如果近期您有特别关注的期货品种希望在直播中听到老师的深度讲解您可以通过页面中展示的方式联系到我们的专业人员及团队 为您提前预约讲解内容那么最近的黑色系的行情啊也比较大不知道大家关注了没有但是呢在黑色的行情里面呢其实焦眉的行情好像要更耀眼一点那么今天从今天排面上来看那么焦眉的话呢也是向上突破到了一个八百八附近很高的一个位置那么整个黑色系近期 都在宏观情绪的一个带动下冲高那么在这个时候呢我们也是就是梳理一下铁矿的一些重要的一些点然后呢对后面的铁矿的行情呢做一个预判首先呢我们先从一些基础的给大家简单梳理一下铁矿的一些基本概念那么铁矿石的话呢他是呃 还有理论上还有铁元素的化合物的这种矿石呢都可以叫做铁矿石那么我们常见的铁矿石的种类有磁铁矿磁铁矿鹤铁矿和铃铁矿四大类那么在高度冶炼的进程的中间铁矿石的一些指标对高度冶炼的进程影响是比较大的比如说呢铁矿石的力度力度的话呢 太大太小会影响高炉内料柱的透气性使煤气上升阻力增大力度过大呢又会影响炉料的加热和矿石的还原啊这是力度所以呢根据 ...