最新一周涨跌幅排名靠后，光伏板块估值较低。根据Wind数据，光伏板块最近一周（2025年6月27日-7 月4日）涨跌幅0.79%，跑输沪深300指数0.23个百分点，相比SW行业分类各板块涨幅排名中等偏后；年 初以来光伏板块累计涨跌幅为-3.87%，跑输沪深300指数8.70个百分点，相比SW行业分类各板块排名靠 后。估值方面，光伏板块2025年7月4日TTM-整体法估值为18.95倍，与SW行业分类各板块相比，排名 位于中等靠后部分。从估值变化趋势来看，光伏板块TTM整体法估值自21年底到23年底持续下降，24年 初开始逐步上升；光伏板块相对沪深300的估值溢价1.51倍，与估值变化趋势基本一致。 风险提示。行业政策波动风险；竞争加剧风险；新技术替代风险；产品价格波动风险。 报告来源 报告导读： （6月28日-7月5日）光伏行业政策信号密集释放，工信部明确推进落后产能 有序退出，龙头玻璃企业启动减产，板块情绪修复明显。 本周， 光伏产业政策面持续释放积极信号。 中央财经委员会第六次会议将"无序竞争"问题提上议程，明 确提出加快落后产能退出，推动行业向高质量方向发展。光伏行业率先响应，头部光伏玻璃企业宣布自7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight increase in prices, but the overall supply-demand dynamics suggest a potential oversupply situation in the medium term [1][3][4]. Market Performance - As of July 4, 2025, the main aluminum oxide futures contract closed at 3024 CNY/ton, with a weekly price change of 1.54% [1]. - The weekly trading range was between 2980 CNY/ton and 3083 CNY/ton, with a decrease in open interest by 21,409 contracts compared to the previous week [1]. Inventory and Production - Domestic aluminum oxide inventory at ports reached 43,000 tons, an increase of 17,400 tons from the previous week [2]. - The total built capacity for metallurgical-grade aluminum oxide in the country is 110.82 million tons/year, with an operational capacity of 88.63 million tons/year, and the weekly operating rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 79.97% [2]. Institutional Insights - According to Xinyi Futures, the macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals, with concerns about ore disturbances persisting, but domestic bauxite inventory remains high, limiting short-term supply tightness [3]. - The overall aluminum oxide production capacity is still increasing, while downstream demand is not expected to grow significantly, leading to a challenging oversupply scenario [3]. - Newhu Futures indicates that the downstream electrolytic aluminum plants are cautious about purchasing due to expectations of price declines, while aluminum oxide producers are maintaining stable prices without inventory pressure [4]. Future Outlook - The short-term outlook for aluminum oxide production capacity is stable, with slight increases in consumption, but the overall market remains in a state of supply abundance [4]. - There are plans for new production capacity in the future, and previously shut-down capacities may resume, reinforcing the expectation of oversupply in the medium term [4].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant challenges, including continuous losses over multiple quarters, prompting a consensus among industry players to combat "involution" and seek market-driven capacity clearance solutions [2][4][10]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic industry has been experiencing severe supply-demand mismatches, leading to consecutive quarterly losses [2]. - In 2024, the total revenue of 64 listed photovoltaic companies is projected to be 931.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.4% year-on-year, with total net profit dropping from a profit of 104.96 billion yuan in 2023 to a loss of 29.76 billion yuan in 2024 [4]. - The industry is currently in a painful transition period, with many companies understanding the regulatory push against low-price competition and the need for capacity optimization [4][9]. Group 2: Industry Consensus and Actions - A consensus on combating "involution" is forming within the industry, with various segments, including silicon materials and photovoltaic glass, exploring market-driven capacity clearance paths [2][4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting with 14 photovoltaic companies to discuss production, innovation, and market competition, which provided significant confidence to the industry [3][9]. - Industry leaders advocate for a combination of market-driven mergers, technological elimination mechanisms, and policy enforcement to clear outdated capacity [4][10]. Group 3: Market and Policy Dynamics - Companies are exploring market-driven capacity clearance strategies, such as larger firms acquiring smaller ones to stabilize silicon material prices and restore profitability [6][7]. - The photovoltaic glass sector is also expected to reduce production by 30%, with ongoing discussions about capacity clearance [7]. - There is a strong emphasis on the need for policy measures to control new capacity and guide prices back to rational levels, while also promoting technological innovation to facilitate the exit of outdated capacity [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing demand for customized anode materials in lithium batteries and suggests that companies in the industry should focus on three main strategies to achieve breakthroughs in a highly competitive market [1]. Group 1: Technological Innovation - Companies should prioritize technological innovation to forge differentiated competitive advantages, focusing on R&D to develop unique products and maintain generational advantages [1]. - Collaboration with academic institutions and research organizations is essential for accelerating the transformation of technological achievements [1]. - Continuous upgrades in equipment and iterative processes are necessary to reduce production costs and enhance competitiveness [1]. Group 2: Industry Chain Collaboration - Companies should adopt a "vertical integration" supplier management model to create value across the entire supply chain and establish strategic partnerships with upstream suppliers [2]. - Engaging in "business + equity" cooperation models with downstream enterprises can enhance customer loyalty and ensure the absorption of advanced production capacity [2]. - Implementing customized service strategies can help build long-term partnerships with customers, fostering mutual growth [2]. Group 3: Dynamic Capacity Adjustment - Companies need to possess keen market insight and flexibility to dynamically adjust capacity layouts in response to market changes [3]. - A dual strategy of "regional capacity + global market" should be implemented, utilizing energy cost advantages in low electricity price regions for green factory construction and selecting international logistics hubs for overseas operations [3]. - Monitoring policy changes and promoting green and intelligent upgrades of capacity are crucial, along with establishing demand monitoring models for agile adjustments in product structure and capacity deployment [3].

【导读】周末大事+十大券商最新研判 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好啊，马上就要开盘了。下周很重要，因为特朗普设定的贸易协议最后期限将在7月9日 到来。 周末大事 利好！深圳出台10条举措促进半导体与集成电路产业高质量发展 《深圳市关于促进半导体与集成电路产业高质量发展的若干措施》（以下简称《若干措 施》）近日出台实施，并设立总规模50亿元的"赛米产业私募基金"，以"政策+资本"组合 拳，支持产业全链条优化提质。据了解，《若干措施》围绕"强链、稳链、补链"核心目标， 从高端芯片产品突破、加强芯片设计流片支持、加快EDA工具推广应用、突破核心设备及配 套零部件、突破关键制造封装材料、提升高端封装测试水平、加速化合物半导体成熟等方 面，提出了10条具体支持举措。 财政部：在政府采购活动中对自欧盟进口的医疗器械采取相关措施 根据有关法律法规，经批准，财政部决定在政府采购活动中对部分自欧盟进口的医疗器械采 取相关措施。现将有关事项通知如下： 一、采购人采购预算金额4500万元人民币以上的医疗器械（具体品目清单见附件）时，确需 采购进口产品的，在履行法定程序后，应当排除欧盟企业（不包括在华欧资企业）参与。对 于参与的非欧盟 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the home appliance industry is "Strongly Recommended" for key companies such as Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Hisense Home Appliances, Supor, and others [2]. Core Insights - The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam is expected to benefit companies with production capacity in Vietnam, as tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US have significantly decreased from 46% to 20% [1]. - The US labor market data indicates a mixed outlook, with a decrease in ADP employment numbers and a slight drop in the unemployment rate, which may increase the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1]. Industry Scale - The home appliance industry consists of 88 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 1,835.5 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 1,748.9 billion [3]. Key Company Financials - Midea Group: Market Cap 563.3 billion, 2024 EPS 5.03, 2025 EPS 5.61, 2025 PE 13.1, PB 2.5, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Gree Electric Appliances: Market Cap 261.8 billion, 2024 EPS 5.75, 2025 EPS 6.25, 2025 PE 7.5, PB 1.8, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Hisense Home Appliances: Market Cap 36.5 billion, 2024 EPS 2.42, 2025 EPS 2.71, 2025 PE 9.7, PB 2.2, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Supor: Market Cap 42.0 billion, 2024 EPS 2.80, 2025 EPS 3.03, 2025 PE 17.3, PB 6.1, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Other companies such as Zhaochi Co., Juxing Technology, and Stone Technology also received a "Strongly Recommended" rating [2]. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the home appliance sector over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 4.9%, 10.1%, and 30.3% respectively, indicating a strong upward trend [5]. - The relative performance against the benchmark index (CSI 300) is 2.0%, 4.6%, and 14.8% for the same periods [5]. Supply Chain and Production Insights - Major appliance manufacturers like Hisense and TCL are primarily sourcing from Mexico and Vietnam, mitigating tariff impacts [6]. - The shift in TV imports to the US shows that Vietnam's share has increased to 36%, while China's has decreased to 5% [8]. - Companies in the smart home sector, such as Stone Technology, are also benefiting from reduced uncertainties in supply chains due to the Vietnam agreement [6]. Future Outlook - The anticipated rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to boost demand in the tools market, with a 66% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [9][10]. - Companies are advised to focus on production in Vietnam to meet local origin requirements and capitalize on the upcoming peak season for orders [6].

且从产能角度看，目前煤炭、钢铁等传统周期性行业的"落后产能"已基本出清完毕，加之上市公司并购重组/央国企整合也基本完 毕，行业集中度显著提升。在此背景下，通过行政手段进一步出清产能的空间已极为有限。 | | 一周策略前瞻 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券商/分析师 结论 | | 逻辑 | 关注板块 | | | | 短期来看,全球市场定价核心在于7月9日美 国与各国贸易协定进展,此前美国总统特朗 普表示不考虑延长关税豁免最后期限,但此 | | | | | 种表态也可能是一种谈判策略,美国对部分 | | | | | 国家关税也有延期可能。上半年我国经济增 | 关注两条主线:1)中报业绩预期有望 | | 华西策略 | 下半年央行降准降息仍有空间,A | 长动能强劲,全年经济增速目标达成的压力 | 向好方向,如:风电、火电、机器人 | | | | | 等:2) 前期海外英伟达产业链突破新 | | 李立峰 | 股稳中向上趋势不变。 | 减轻。然而对于下半年而言，无论关税最终 | | | | | 结果如何,出口对增长的拉动力都会比上半 | 高,可期待国产链补涨行情。 | | | | ...

行 业 及 产 业 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 农林牧渔 2025 年 07 月 06 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱珺逸 (8621)23297818× zhujy@swsresearch.com 猪价创春节后新高，关注产能与库存行为变化 看好 ——农林牧渔周观点（2025.6.30-2025.7.6） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 - ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数上涨 2.5%，沪深 300 上涨 1.5%。个股涨幅前五名：辉隆股份（-2.5%）、晓鸣股份（4.8%）、神 农集团（4.0%）、海利生物（1.7%）、牧原股份（4.9%），跌幅前五名：安德利（-1.0%）、ST 天山（8.2%）、普莱柯 （1.1%）、国投中鲁（0.0%）、保龄宝 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi is facing significant challenges in ramping up production capacity for its new electric vehicle, the YU7, which has seen overwhelming demand leading to extended delivery times of up to a year for some models [3][4][6]. Production Capacity - The YU7 has a delivery time of 9 months to over a year, with the standard version estimated at 58-61 weeks and the Pro version at 51-54 weeks [3][4]. - Currently, all Xiaomi vehicles are produced at the first phase factory in Beijing, which has a designed annual capacity of 150,000 units but has been pushed to produce approximately 36,500 units annually, a 140% increase from its original plan [7][8]. - The second phase factory, set to be completed in mid-June, will also have a capacity of 150,000 units per year and is expected to start production in July or August [4][10]. Competitive Landscape - Competitors are actively trying to capture Xiaomi's potential customers during this production bottleneck, offering incentives such as cash bonuses for switching orders [5][14]. - The electric SUV market is highly competitive, with established players like Tesla and emerging brands like NIO and Xpeng vying for market share [5][19]. Market Dynamics - The upcoming reduction in tax incentives for electric vehicles in 2024 and 2025 could impact consumer purchasing decisions, potentially increasing the cost of the YU7 by over 10,000 yuan due to tax changes [6][24]. - Xiaomi's ambitious target of delivering 350,000 vehicles this year hinges on its ability to quickly resolve production capacity issues and fend off competitive pressures [6][13]. Production Challenges - Xiaomi's management acknowledges the production challenges and is actively working to improve capacity, with plans for a third factory in Wuhan and Shanghai still in the rumor stage [4][10]. - The YU7's production complexity is heightened by the fact that 90% of its components are newly developed, unlike Tesla's strategy of using shared parts across models [21][23]. Consumer Sentiment - Despite long wait times, Xiaomi's loyal customer base remains patient, but there are concerns that potential buyers may be deterred by the lengthy delivery periods [11][13]. - The brand's strong marketing and product appeal are crucial for retaining customers amidst fierce competition and production delays [23][24].

Table_First|Table_Summary 固收定期研究 2025 年 7 月 6 日 【华福固收】7 月信用债投资策略思考 ➢ 7月信用债投资策略思考 展望后市，考虑到抢出口放缓及前期已透支需求，出口可能阶段性走弱，后续关税谈判 存在不确定性，而国内各类对冲政策效果有待观察，央行可能通过重启国债买卖实现流 动性投放，因此我们判断7月甚至三季度机构风险偏好降低，债市整体基调仍是震荡偏 多。但从稍长时间看，国内"内卷式"竞争问题受到中央及多个行业协会关注、欧洲财 政扩张提振经济预期，叠加债市2024年的趋势型下行已透支了后市的行情，因此后续债 市下行空间可能有限。 ➢ 风险提示：行业面临政策不及预期风险、基本面下行风险、信用风险蔓延。 团队成员 分析师: 徐亮 执业证书编号： S0210524040003 邮箱：xl30484@hfzq.com.cn Table_First|Table_Contacter 分 析 师 : 梁克淳 梁克淳 执业证书编号： S0210524060002 邮箱：lkc30514@hfzq.com.cn 在上述判断的基础上，信用债价值凸显，且随着信用债ETF增长与"存款搬家"行 ...