Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is facing a reality check after a strong rebound, with mixed trading in futures on the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq indices amid renewed hopes for interest rate cuts and a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel [1][4] - The S&P 500 index's forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 22 times, which is 35% higher than its long-term average, indicating that the index appears "expensive" across various valuation metrics [3][4] - Analysts suggest that the S&P 500's earnings need to grow by 30% over the next year to return to "fair value," and that potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could help bridge the gap between fundamentals and market prices [4][5] Group 2 - BMO Capital Markets' chief investment strategist raised the S&P 500's year-end target from 6,100 to 6,700 points, citing a reduction in tariff concerns and an expected increase in corporate guidance following the second-quarter earnings season [5] - Investors are closely monitoring the progress of the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, which has so far been maintained without new reports of attacks since President Trump's criticism of violations [6]

Core Viewpoint - FedEx's stock experienced a 6% decline in after-market trading following its Q4 FY2025 earnings report, despite surpassing consensus estimates, due to a cautious outlook for the upcoming quarter [2][6] Financial Performance - FedEx reported Q4 revenue of $22.2 billion, matching the prior-year quarter and exceeding the consensus estimate of $21.8 billion [3] - The package segment saw a 5% increase in volume, while composite package yield decreased slightly by 0.4% [3] - Freight volume declined significantly by 15%, although composite freight yield rose by 3% [3] - The adjusted operating margin improved by 600 basis points to 9.1%, with adjusted earnings per share increasing to $6.07 from $5.41 in the previous year, surpassing the consensus estimate of $5.86 [5] Guidance and Outlook - FedEx's guidance for Q1 FY2026 indicates revenue growth of flat to 2% year-over-year, slightly better than street estimates of a 0.1% decline [6] - The company forecasts adjusted earnings per share between $3.40 and $4.00, below the consensus estimate of $4.06 [6] - FedEx plans an additional $1 billion in cost-cutting measures for FY2026, building on $4 billion in savings already achieved [6] Valuation Analysis - FedEx's stock is currently trading around $215, with a trailing adjusted P/E ratio of 12x, lower than its five-year average of 16x, suggesting potential for growth [7] - The separation of the freight business is expected to unlock shareholder value and enhance focus on core parcel delivery operations [8] - The stock appears slightly undervalued, presenting a potential opportunity for long-term gains [8]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market continues to reach new highs despite multiple pressures, with the S&P 500's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at 22 times, significantly above the long-term average of 35% [1] - The market's ability to sustain this upward trend depends on whether corporate earnings can exceed expectations or if the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates [1][4] - The S&P 500 index is currently facing historical challenges, including a new U.S. government's efforts to adjust global order and implement large-scale tariff policies, alongside uncertainties from conflicts in the Middle East [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500's current P/E ratio of 22 times is 35% higher than its long-term average, raising concerns about overvaluation [1][3] - A Bloomberg model suggests that the fair P/E ratio for the S&P 500 should be around 17.7 times, indicating that earnings would need to grow by 30% in the next year for the P/E to return to reasonable levels [3] - Investment strategists express caution regarding the sustainability of current market levels, suggesting that earnings expectations for the second half of the year may be overly optimistic [3][5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve has indicated that it is not in a hurry to adjust policies, although lower inflation and weak labor recruitment may lead to earlier rate cuts this year [4] - Wall Street strategists recommend viewing any potential market pullbacks as buying opportunities, particularly in technology and growth stocks [5]

以下文章来源于投资界 ，作者吴琼 投资界 . 清科创业旗下创业与投资资讯平台 敲响警钟。 作者：吴琼 来源：投资界 这一幕着实让人意外—— 一家独角兽破产四年后 软银被告了 这场纠纷，始于孙正义所投资的独角兽——Greensill Capital。 时间回到2011年，金融学家Lex Greensill成立同名机构Greensill Capital（格林希尔资 本），总部位于伦敦。公司专注于供应链金融领域，主要业务是可以让企业延长支付账单时 间，减少供应商的应收账款时间。简单来说，就是为中小企业提供短期贷款，金融机构从中赚 取利差。 这样的故事吸引了孙正义。他 发现， 如果软银投资了格林希尔资本，那么后者可以为陷入困 境的软银被投企业提供融资渠道，作为条件，软银不必提供价值相当的抵押品。 正是这样的操 作，为日后纠纷埋下伏笔。 2019年5月，软银向格林希尔资本投资8亿美元；同年10月，又加注6.55亿美元，两次合计投 资约15亿美元，软银成为主要股东。 近日，伦敦高等法院开庭审理了一场跨越多年的诉讼：原瑞士信贷旗下供应链金融基金，就 2021年Greensill Capital（格林希尔资本）破产导致的4. ...

Core Insights - Moretus Research provides high-quality equity research focused on U.S. public markets, aiming to deliver clarity, conviction, and alpha for serious investors [1] - The research methodology emphasizes a structured framework to identify companies with durable business models, mispriced cash flow potential, and intelligent capital allocation [1] - Valuation practices are based on sector-relevant multiples tailored to each company's business model and capital structure, prioritizing comparability and simplicity [1] Research Focus - Moretus Research targets underappreciated companies that are undergoing structural changes or temporary dislocations, where disciplined analysis can yield asymmetric returns [1] - The research combines rigorous fundamental analysis with a judgment-driven process, avoiding noise and overly complex forecasting [1] - The firm aims to elevate the standards of independent investment research by providing actionable insights and a strong filter for relevant information in equity analysis [1]

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 吕执着 来源：雪球 为什么我会提出这个概念 ， 因为2025 ， 有了一些新变化 ， 对比以往的医药行业 ， 估值的重 估 ， 开始一步步的被证实了 。 一 、 以前为啥不值钱 ？ —— 机构 " 不见兔子不撒鹰 " 只看结果 ， 不看潜力 ： 以前投资机构只认 " 快卖钱的药 " （ 比如III期临床或上市阶段 ） ， 觉得临床前或早期管线 （ I/II期 ） 风险太高 ， 10个项目可能9个失败 ， 算不过来账 。 打个比方 ： 就像种树 ， 种子刚发芽时没人出价 ， 等结果子了才有人买 。 不会算 " 未来的钱 " ： 传统估值模型 （ 比如PE市盈率 ） 只看当前利润 ， 但创新药企早期都在烧钱搞研发 ， 没利润 可看 ， 机构干脆忽略早期管线价值 。 二 、 2025年为啥突然值钱了 ？ —— 海外大佬来 " 抢货 " 大药企 " 囤货式采购 " ： 2025年起 ， 辉瑞 、 默沙东等国际巨头疯狂抢购中国创新药管线 ， 尤其是早期项目 。 比如 ： 三生制药的PD-1/VEGF双抗 （ 刚进I期临床 ） ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3455 points, marking a new high for the year, while the ChiNext Index surged over 3% [1] - Over 3800 stocks closed in the green, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [5] Financial Sector - The financial sector saw a collective surge, particularly in brokerage stocks such as Guosheng Financial Holdings, Tianfeng Securities, and Xiangcai Securities, which hit the daily limit [3] - The rise is attributed to increasing expectations for policy easing and the relatively low valuations of brokerage firms, with potential catalysts from ongoing capital market reforms like the deepening of the registration system and the expansion of the Beijing Stock Exchange [3] - Caution is advised for short-term trading, while long-term investors should focus on leading firms with strong investment banking capabilities and wealth management advantages [3] Military Industry - The military sector remained active, with stocks like Guorui Technology and Beifang Changlong hitting the daily limit [3] - The sector benefits from strong performance and policy support, with many military enterprises reporting full order books, particularly in aerospace and missile equipment [3] - Long-term investments should focus on leading companies with core technologies and stable orders, avoiding short-term speculative trades [3] Software Development - The software development sector was also lively, with stocks like Guiding Compass reaching the daily limit [4] - This sector is linked to the financial industry, driven by the demand for financial IT and data security as part of digital transformation [4] - Companies that effectively combine technology with practical applications are seen as having significant future potential, but investors should prioritize firms with tangible projects and cash flow [4] Other Sectors - The oil and gas, pharmaceutical, and shipping sectors faced declines, with stocks like Zhun Oil Shares hitting the daily limit down [4] - The oil and gas sector is affected by recent volatility in international oil prices, while the pharmaceutical sector is still adjusting to the impacts of centralized procurement [4] - The shipping sector is experiencing a withdrawal of funds due to expectations around freight rates and seasonal demand [4] Investment Strategy - The market's upward movement suggests a search for undervalued and high-growth sectors, particularly in financials and military industries [5] - Long-term investors are encouraged to remain calm and avoid chasing short-term speculative stocks, focusing instead on sectors with clear policy benefits and strong mid-year performance forecasts, such as semiconductor equipment, energy storage, and high-end liquor [5]

瑞典央行会议纪要：瑞典央行行长特登表示，瑞典央行的评估认为瑞典克朗仍然被低估，未来将会进一 步升值。 ...

证券研究报告：银行业|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 4479.03 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 4479.03 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3132.76 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2024-06 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 27% 31% 银行 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:张银新 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040001 Email:zhangyinxin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 l 风险提示： 数据统计误差，外部事件超预期恶化，银行不良资产大面积暴露。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 《银行资负观察第二期：存款降息对 大行负债影响几何？》 - 2025.05.30 金融可转债研究：金融转债梳理推荐 l 投资要点 板块供需矛盾仍突出：截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日，转债市场目前存 续个券约 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/25 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/06/1 8 801 2700 2615 2500 2650 2455 2598 290 332 179 175 -1437 2025/06/1 9 801 2765 2680 2515 2700 2455 2605 302 341 143 185 -1455 2025/06/2 0 801 2750 2665 2525 2700 2480 2600 296 346 195 210 -1445 2025/06/2 3 801 2735 2643 2543 2700 2480 2633 295 346 171 210 -1350 2025/06/2 4 801 2635 2510 2510 2600 2480 2615 295 346 171 240 -1163 日度变化 0 -100 -133 -33 -100 0 -18 0 0 0 30 187 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始 ...