Group 1 - Canadian retail sales for April and the U.S. June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index are set to be released in ten minutes [1]

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月20日 高技术制造业宏观周报 国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数保持不变 国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数保持不变。截至 2025 年 6 月 14 日当周， 国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数 A 录得 0；国信周频高技术制造业扩散 指数 B 为 50.8，与上期持平。从分项看，动态随机存储器价格上升，半 导体行业景气度上升；丙烯腈价格下降，航空航天行业景气度下降；6- 氨基青霉烷酸、六氟磷酸锂、中关村电子产品价格指数不变，医药、新 能源、计算机行业景气度不变。 风险提示：高技术制造业发展和结构调整带来指标失灵；经济政策和产业政 策干预；经济增速下滑。 核心观点 经济研究·宏观周报 | 证券分析师：邵兴宇 | 证券分析师：董德志 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 010-88005483 | 021-60933158 | | | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cndongdz@guosen.com.cn | | | | S0980523070001 | S0980513100001 | | | 基础数据 | | | | 固定资产投资累计同比 | | 3.70 ...

Core Viewpoint - International companies are collectively adjusting their electric vehicle and battery investment projects in the U.S. due to increasing policy uncertainty and a slowdown in the electric vehicle market growth [1][5][9] Group 1: Company Adjustments - Faraday Future has postponed its battery factory project in South Carolina until U.S. policies become clearer, citing "policy uncertainty" and "cost sensitivity" as reasons for this decision [1][4] - CATL and Ford's battery project in Michigan is also at risk of being shelved due to similar uncertainties [1][4] - Faraday Future's Tennessee factory has begun production of energy storage cells, marking it as the first energy storage cell factory in North America [1][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. battery manufacturing landscape is facing challenges due to the Trump administration's complex trade policies and the halt of green transition initiatives, which have overshadowed the rapid growth seen under the Biden administration [5][7] - Over $6 billion in battery factory investments have been canceled or postponed in the first quarter of 2025 due to increased costs and policy risks [7][9] Group 3: Global Strategy - Chinese battery companies are optimizing their global capacity structure, shifting focus to more stable markets in Europe and Asia amid uncertainties in North America [9][10] - Faraday Future has expanded its production capabilities in Europe, with significant investments in factories across France, Germany, and Hungary, reflecting a strategic pivot towards the European market [10][12] Group 4: Future Outlook - The European market is experiencing a significant shift towards electrification, with BEV market share rising to 15.3% in early 2025, indicating a growing opportunity for Chinese battery manufacturers [10][12] - Faraday Future emphasizes the importance of a "global manufacturing + local delivery" capacity coordination system to enhance supply chain resilience and response efficiency [13]

金十数据6月20日讯，全国组织机构统一社会信用代码数据服务中心发布的最新数据显示：截至2025年5 月31日，我国装备制造业企业总数达246万家，其中2025年新设企业7.1万家，新设企业中高端装备制造 业占比超过60%，显示出我国制造业向高端化转型升级的良好势头。 （央视新闻） 今年新设7.1万 我国装备制造业企业总数达246万家 ...

Core Viewpoint - The French manufacturing confidence index for June reported at 96, which is below the expected 97 and the previous value of 97 [1] Group 1 - The manufacturing confidence index indicates a decline in sentiment among manufacturers in France [1] - The current index of 96 suggests a weaker outlook compared to market expectations [1] - The unchanged previous value of 97 highlights a stagnation in confidence levels [1]

Group 1 - The power equipment industry is undergoing significant transformation due to the implementation of Document No. 136, which continues to promote power reform [1] - The green certificate trading rules in Guangzhou have clarified that green certificates cannot be traded twice and established a pricing mechanism [1] - Sichuan aims to cover 5% of its maximum load with a power demand response mechanism [1] Group 2 - The supply-side clearing in the photovoltaic industry is steadily advancing, with silicon material companies reducing production loads and leading firms planning capacity replacements, indicating a potential recovery in industry prosperity [1] - In the battery sector, the industrialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating, with total planned capacity nearing 450 GWh, and the 2025 Solid-State Battery Summit focusing on engineering challenges, expecting to break the 1 GWh milestone by 2028 [1] Group 3 - The European electric vehicle market continues to grow, with sales in the top ten countries increasing month-on-month in May, showing a steady rise in penetration rates and positive overseas demand [1] - The overall price of the photovoltaic industry chain is declining, with prices for silicon materials, silicon wafers, and battery cells continuing to drop, while module prices remain stable amid intensified industry competition [1] - Leading companies in the photovoltaic sector maintain high operating rates despite the competitive landscape [1] Group 4 - The Mechanical ETF (516960) tracks a segmented mechanical index (000812) compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting quality listed companies in high-end manufacturing and automation from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - The segmented mechanical index focuses on manufacturing sectors with high technological content and growth potential, reflecting the trend of China's manufacturing industry towards intelligence and automation [1]

【环球时报驻美国特约记者 李准 冯亚仁 环球时报记者 李迅典】编者的话："这对美国来说将是多么伟大的投资，而且非常需要！"随着美国总统 特朗普和哈佛大学之间的"斗法"持续，特朗普提出要把原本给哈佛数十亿美元的拨款重新分配给美国职业学校。特朗普的这一表态与关于"制造业 回流"的竞选承诺息息相关。历史上，职业教育在美国曾有过辉煌时刻。但上世纪60年代的一份宣扬"人人上大学"的法案，不仅让联邦学贷成为后 来美国高等教育系统中的重要支柱，还深刻改变了美国社会的教育公平与阶层流动格局。近些年，由于高学贷、高生活成本等诸多因素，美国年 轻人越发怀疑大学学位的价值，反而对职业教育更加感兴趣。但是，美国教育专家也提醒，美国职业学校缺乏前瞻性、基础教育常年的不足和缺 乏勤劳奋进的社会文化，都为"制造业回流"目标蒙上阴影。 近日，美国福克斯新闻网站就此事采访了华盛顿、底特律和休斯敦地区的美国居民，他们普遍对于特朗普施压常春藤盟校持担忧和反对态度，但 与此同时，他们承认投资职业学校的重要性。环球技术学院是美国最大的私立职业学校连锁机构之一。该机构首席执行官杰罗姆·格兰特也表 示："我们和四年制高校没有任何冲突，我们只是认为，对美国 ...

Group 1 - Key Point 1: The article highlights key economic data and events to be monitored on June 20, 2025, including various consumer confidence indices and retail sales figures [1] - Key Point 2: Important announcements include speeches from Russian President Putin and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, which may influence market sentiment [1] - Key Point 3: The article lists specific times for the release of economic indicators such as the UK Gfk Consumer Confidence Index and the US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index [1] Group 2 - Key Point 1: The article emphasizes the significance of the Chinese one-year loan market quotation rate to be released on June 20, which could impact lending rates and economic activity [1] - Key Point 2: The German Producer Price Index (PPI) and UK retail sales figures are also highlighted as critical indicators for assessing economic health in Europe [1] - Key Point 3: The article notes the scheduled release of the Eurozone consumer confidence index, which is crucial for understanding consumer sentiment in the region [1]

潍柴动力 20250618 摘要 潍柴动力预计 2024 年收入增长约 15%，2026 年有望维持甚至更高增 速，主要驱动力来自天然气重卡发动机、大缸径发动机（尤其是 IDEC 柴油发电应用）以及凯奥物流设备业务的增长。 国内重卡市场 2025 年表现强劲，5 月批发量同比增长 12%，终端销量 增长 18%。以旧换新政策推动需求，预计 4-9 月同比增速将超过 30%，潍柴动力作为天然气重卡发动机龙头将显著受益。 大缸径柴油发电领域需求高速增长，供给紧张，存在涨价趋势。全球 IDEC 柴油发电单体数量预计从 2024 年的 1.5 万台增长到 2030 年的 3-4 万台，市场空间翻倍。潍柴动力出货量有望冲击千台，贡献营收约 20 亿元。 凯奥子公司一季度释放裁员费用后，有望迎来费用减少和营业利润率提 升。受益于欧洲制造业再投资，凯奥内生营业利润率将进一步改善，对 潍柴动力整体业绩产生积极影响。 天然气重卡发动机受益于以旧换新政策，预计全年销量可达 20 万台以 上，但去年国三以旧换新不包含天然气重卡，今年前五个月天然气重卡 渗透率较低，后续几个月景气度可期。 Q&A 大缸径柴油发电领域需求高速增长且供给 ...

作为全球首个聚焦制造业数字化全场景的专业展会，本届展会以"数智破局·生态共生：重构全球制造新 引擎"为主题，来自10个国家和地区的200余家领军企业，约2万名专业观众，依托这一制造业数字化转 型、智能化改造的供需精准链接枢纽，共促制造业高质量发展。 据悉，制造业数字化全球发展中心由上海市工业经济联合会下设上海市制造业创意促进中心会同12家单 位一起发起成立。上海市工业经济联合会会长管维镛介绍，该中心具有多业和多元的特点，成员既有制 造企业，也有研发单位，还有产业园区；既有国有企业，也有中外合资企业，还有民营企业。首批发起 单位共同见证了该中心揭牌。 在管维镛看来，制造业数字化全球发展中心能在赋能新技术新成果运用、促进产业链合作和数字化系统 集成、赋能人才培养和产业组织架构重整、促进行业标准制定和知识产权保护、发挥典型示范作用等六 方面赋能企业制造化数字转型。"我相信这个平台，能赋能企业的数字化智能化和绿色发展，并带来积 极效应。"管维镛说。 现场，德国国家科学技术研究院院士皮特 萨赫逊教授、数智范式会展CEO兼数字经济研究院执行院长 周建良分别受聘为该中心名誉主任、执行主任。 同时身为中国国际智能制造联盟联合 ...