2025 年 05 月 22 日 白糖：震荡偏强 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 【趋势强度】 白糖趋势强度：1 ■ 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 17.74 | 0.33 | 91 价差（元/吨） | 135 | -4 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 6150 | -10 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 40 | 1 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5863 | 14 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 287 | -24 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：巴西压榨进度同比趋缓；USDA 预计 25/26 榨季巴西产量增长 2%；巴西 4 月出口 155 万吨， 同比减少 18%；截至 4 月底，印度 24/25 榨季产糖 2569 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of index-enhanced funds in the market is driven by the evolution of market conditions and the increasing demand from investors for more sophisticated investment tools, with a total scale exceeding 200 billion yuan by the end of Q1 2025, representing an increase of over 80% since the end of 2020 [1]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of Quantitative Index Enhancement - Quantitative index enhancement involves tracking benchmark indices while using quantitative models to optimize stock selection and portfolio management to pursue excess returns (Alpha) [1]. - Unlike traditional index funds that passively replicate constituent stocks, index-enhanced products allow fund managers to adjust holdings within certain constraints to achieve returns that exceed the index [1]. - The average return of index-enhanced funds based on the CSI 300 index was 25.48%, compared to 6.07% for ordinary CSI 300 index funds, indicating the effectiveness of the index enhancement strategy [5]. Group 2: Performance Comparison - Over the past decade, the index-enhanced fund index has shown significant excess returns, with a gain of 24.88% compared to -18.05% for the CSI 300 index and 2.26% for stock index funds [2][3]. - The performance of index-enhanced products is particularly notable during periods of market recovery, as they benefit from both beta returns from the underlying index and alpha returns from active management strategies [7]. Group 3: Mechanisms of Index Enhancement - The enhancement is achieved through two core components: modeling stock returns and optimizing the portfolio relative to the benchmark index [8]. - Three primary methods for achieving index enhancement include: 1. Multi-factor stock selection models that assess various factors such as value, momentum, growth, sentiment, and quality to improve stock selection accuracy [10]. 2. AI stock selection techniques that utilize machine learning and deep learning to uncover patterns in historical data and enhance stock selection efficiency [11][12]. 3. Fundamental enhancement strategies that analyze a company's financial health and operational efficiency to identify investment opportunities [13]. Group 4: Key Indicators for Index Enhanced Funds - When selecting index-enhanced funds, important indicators to consider include annualized excess returns, tracking error, information ratio, maximum drawdown, daily and monthly win rates, all centered around the core metric of daily excess returns [13].

期货热点追踪 机构：当前铜市"极度脆弱"，价格与基本面严重背离！铜价还是太便宜了？ 相关链接 ...

市 市 需 有 谨 风 慎 险 国贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 DADA - 官 方 网 站 www.itf.com.cn 脂 热 线 400-8888-598 | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITG 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | 2025/5/21 | | | | | 农产品研究中心 | | 杨璐琳 | 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | | | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | | 2025年5月20日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年5月20日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | SP2601 | 5334 | 0. 30% | 1.91% | | 针叶浆银星 | 6250 | -0. 79% | -0. 79% | | 期货价格 | SP2507 | 5410 | 0. 37% | 2. 54% | 现 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-21 供应有复产可能，出口下滑，工业硅盘面再创新低 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-05-20，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡，主力合约2505开于8080元/吨，最后收于7910元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-205） 元/吨，变化（-2.53）%。截止收盘，2505主力合约持仓64706手，2025-05-20仓单总数为66249手，较前一日变化 152手。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11300-11600（0）元/吨。SMM报道，有机硅市场生胶、D4价格涨跌并行， 随着近期贸易窗口期的到来，生胶下游市场需求度上升较快，成交向好运行，但D4方面由于室温胶需求方面的萎 靡，整体成交一般，市场高价小幅下行。 策略 整体来看，西北前期停产有复产计划，西南丰水期亦有复产可能，供应端可能出现增量，消费端无亮点，出口下 滑，整体来看基本面仍偏弱。 单边：逢高卖出套保 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期权：无 风险 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8700-8900（-150）元/吨；421#硅在9400-10000 （-150）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格 ...

碳酸锂：弱势震荡，关注矿端成交情况 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2507合约（收盘价） | 60,860 | -320 | -2,360 | -4,400 | -10,040 | -16,820 | | | | 2507合约（成交量） | 242,276 | 18,212 | 25,243 | 138,297 | 212,245 | 235,899 | | | | 2507合约（持仓量） | 339,673 | 3,866 | 45,447 | 83,382 | 216,831 | 315,612 | | | 盘面 | 2509合约（收盘价） | 62,100 | -4 ...

【冠通研究】 上下游博弈，盘面区间运行 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 20 日 【策略分析】 沪铜今日高开高走尾盘下行。5 月 20 日，中国央行宣布 1 年期和 5 年期 LPR 同步下 调 10 个基点，释放出明确的稳增长信号。美联储高官表态年内更倾向只降息一次周末国 际信用评级机构穆迪决定将美国主权信用评级从 Aaa 下调至 Aa1，美国经济数据及信用 评级双下滑，市场避险惰绪再起，铜价承压。供给端，截止 5 月 19 日，现货粗炼费 (TC)-43.03 美元/千吨，现货精炼费(RC)-4.30 美分/磅，冶炼厂加工费负值扩大有所放 缓，由于附产品的利润弥补，目前实质性减产尚未推进。目前对铜供应端的压力维持在 预期偏紧，实质供应尚未见明显缩减，废铜不受关税影响，将继续大量进入国内;库存 端，上期所铜库存去化转为累库，美铜依然继续大幅增加库存。需求端，下游需求边际 走弱，社库止跌回弹，终端动能减弱。截至 2025 年 3 月，电解铜表观消费 137.24 万 吨，相比上月涨跌+9.38 万吨，涨跌幅 7.34%。五月进入需求淡季阶段，预计表观消费量 减少。整体来说，市场对经济保持不确定性预期，基本面方 ...

Report Information - Report Date: May 20, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran [3] Market Performance - Futures Price: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of Si2507 was 8,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.87%. The trading volume was 209,508 lots, and the open interest was 155,038 lots, with a net increase of 16,616 lots [4] - Spot Price: The spot price of industrial silicon continued to decline. The price of 553 in Sichuan and Yunnan was 8,800 yuan/ton. The price of 421 in Sichuan was 10,050 yuan/ton, 9,500 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 9,300 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia, and 9,700 yuan/ton in Xinjiang [4] Market Outlook - Supply: In the third week of May, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 69,000 tons. There was no expectation of production cuts in May, and the monthly supply was about 320,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production pressure during the wet season [4] - Demand: There was no increase in demand in May. The monthly output of polysilicon was stable at 90,000 - 100,000 tons. The news of polysilicon production cuts was bearish for industrial silicon. Organic silicon enterprises began to cut production to support prices collectively since April. Exports were stable with no increase. The inventory of both futures and spot continued to increase [4] - Outlook: There was no expectation or sign of improvement in the supply - demand situation. The decline in spot prices continued to limit the rebound space, and the market was expected to fluctuate weakly [4] Market News - On May 19, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 66,097 lots, a net decrease of 287 lots from the previous trading day [5] - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Silicon Industry Branch reported that in the second quarter, the supply - demand fundamentals of industrial silicon had not improved. The market trading atmosphere was light, and downstream demand had not increased significantly, mainly for rigid procurement. The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon reached the lowest point of 8,205 yuan/ton since the listing of industrial silicon futures on May 9. Weak demand and low prices on the disk led to a decline in the spot price of industrial silicon [5]

尿素早报 2025-5-20 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面反弹后震荡运行。供应方面，开工率及日产持续高位，近期有新装 置投产，库存短期快速回落。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工显著回落，复合肥库存累库，三聚 氰胺开工快速提升，农业需求逐步好转。尿素国际价格强势，出口利润高但受出口政策限制，5 月15-16日尿素出口专题会议召开，出口政策落地，尿素经过五一前后大涨后价格趋于稳定。交 割品现货1890（-40），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差13，升贴水比例0.7%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存95万吨（-24.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 05 19 年 月 日 固定收益定期 煤炭调度回落，化工开工率回升——基本面高频数据跟踪 本期国盛基本面高频指数为 125.7 点（前值为 125.5 点），当周（5 月 12 日-5 月 16 日，以下简称当周）同比增加 4.8 点（前值为增加 4.7 点），同比增幅回升。利率债多空信号为空头，信号因子为 6.4%（前值 为 6.3%）。 工业生产高频指数为 125.3，前值为 125.2，当周同比增加 4.7 点（前值 为增加 4.6 点），同比增幅增加。 商品房销售高频指数为 45.0，前值为 45.1，当周同比下降 6.7 点（前值 为下降 6.8 点），同比降幅收窄。 基建投资高频指数为 117.4，前值为 117.2，当周同比增加 0.5 点（前值 为增加 0.0 点），同比增幅扩大。 出口高频指数为 144.6，前值为 144.7，当周同比增加 7.2 点（前值为增 加 7.6 点），同比增幅收窄。 消费高频指数为 119.4，前值为 119.4，当周同比增加 1.3 点（前值为增 加 1.2 点），同比增幅增加。 物价方面，C ...