宏观周报 新的储备政策将陆续出台 宏观研究团队 | 宏观研究团队 | ——宏观周报 | | --- | --- | | | 何宁（分析师） 沈美辰（分析师） | | | hening@kysec.cn shenmeichen@kysec.cn | | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 证书编号：S0790524110002 | | |  国内宏观政策：新的储备政策将陆续出台实施 | | | 过去两周（6 月 15 日-6 月 29 日）国内宏观主要聚焦以下几个方面： | | | 经济增长方面，近日国家发改委召开新闻发布会，国家发展改革委政策研究室副 | | | 主任、新闻发言人李超表示，当前，外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性有所 | | | 增加，全球经贸稳定增长面临挑战。随着存量政策加快落地见效，新的储备政策 | | | 陆续出台实施，有信心、有能力把外部冲击的不确定性和不利影响降到最低，推 | | | 动经济持续健康发展。 | | | 基建与产业方面, 近两周政策聚焦科技型企业孵化器管理办法、工信部等三部门 | | | 研究部署本年度新能源汽车安全管理工作，要求车辆生产企业和动力电池生产企 ...

螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色高级分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2025年06月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 螺纹&热卷观点：宏观情绪提振，钢价小幅上涨 | 2025/6/27 | | 供应 | | （万吨） | | | | 需求 | | （万吨） | | | | | 库存 | | | | 现货 | 主力 | 10-01 | 现货 | 盘面 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 当周值 | | 环差 | | 同差 | | 当周值 | | | 环差 | | 同差 | | 当周值 | | 环差 | 同差 | | 价格 | 基差 | 价差 | 利润 | 利润 | | 铁水 | 242 . | 3 | 0 . | 1 | 2 . ...

《 增量资金强力入场成为短期A股主导变量 》 申明： 因合规考虑，自2025年4月21日后，暂停更新历史观点回溯模拟净值。 本文表述观点，仅代表作者发稿当时的个人想法与思考笔记，仅供读者参考而不作为任何投资 建议。作者保留根据市场环境、新信息等适度修正观点的权利。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 1 本周观点 每周思考总第635期 观点简述： 上周市场止跌回升，沪深300指数周涨幅1.95%，上证综指周涨幅1.91%，中证500指数周涨幅 3.98%。市场在周初突现变盘，在中东局势这一短期变量从分裂迅速转为和平的切换中，市场也迎来 了增量资金的冲击。 基本面上，中东战局瞬时逆转与美国就业市场趋势性转弱。 国内方面，上周发布5月工业利润数 据，在工业生产与PPI物价的前期披露下，工业利润持续走弱并不意外，这是中国经济基本面的客观 数量反映，但在疑似多项资金入场的背景下A股依然获得较强支撑；海外方面，中东战局在上周一迎 来180度逆转，突发的美伊以三方停战来的猝不及防，全球风险资产迅速重新定价，油价出现瞬时巨 阴线暴跌，而中美股市即刻止跌回升，这令短期全球基本面的不确定大跌风险有所缓解，而在美国本 土则有非农就业市场的继 ...

聚烯烃：短期偏高，趋势仍有压力 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 聚丙烯供需 02 聚乙烯供需 03 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 PP：趋势偏弱 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 ◆ 首先、当前中东情况趋向暂停，此前多头核心驱动消失。在供应端，目前检修量不足以改变供需格局， 新增产能大大抵消了供应端的努力。需要看到中国化债压力、欧美衰退压力等宏观因素配合国内产能扩 张的趋势，趋势压力仍在； ◆ 第二、站在中期角度看，供应端新增产能压力主要集中在上半年，虽然当下市场对贸易战好转的乐观因 素预期抢出口，但这并不改变总量供应过剩、下游低利润导致无力正反馈，因此高位仍然需要保持谨慎； ◆ 第三、从宏观角 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that COMEX gold prices are expected to steadily break through $3,300 per ounce, with a potential to reach $3,500 per ounce under extreme risk scenarios [1] - In the third quarter, if geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, WTI oil prices may hit $75 per barrel due to transportation bottlenecks and seasonal demand [1] - By the fourth quarter, as demand weakens and OPEC+ resumes supply increases, WTI oil prices are projected to return to around $60 per barrel [1] Group 2 - The report highlights three major uncertainties for the second half of 2025: first, tariff disruptions, where U.S. tariff policies may reshape international order and global power structures, leading to potential re-imposition of tariffs post-agreement [1] - Second, credit reconstruction is noted, with the U.S. debt reaching $36.1 trillion and over 30% of short-term external debt, raising liquidity risks and questioning the dollar's credit system [1] - Third, geopolitical risks are emphasized, particularly with the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, which could lead to increased oil prices and global shipping costs, resulting in new structural re-evaluations of asset prices [1] Group 3 - In terms of global macroeconomic outlook, the report suggests that major economies are experiencing structural deceleration rather than typical recession, with the U.S. economy expected to transition slowly and steadily [2] - It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve may implement two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points in the second half of 2025, likely in September and December, unless inflation remains resilient or growth data is strong [2]

周度价格高频跟踪方面： 证券研究报告 | 2025年06月29日 宏观经济宏观周报 高频指标延续季节性回落 主要结论：高频指标延续季节性回落。 经济增长方面，本周(6 月 27 日所在周）国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 维持负值， 指数 B 季节性回落。从分项来看，本周投资领域景气有所回落，消费、房地 产领域景气基本保持不变。从季节性比较来看，本周指数 B 标准化后下跌 0.14，表现基本持平历史平均水平，指向国内经济增长动能运行稳健。 基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率偏低， 上证综合指数偏高，从均值回归的角度看，预计下周（2025 年 7 月 4 日所在 周）十年期国债利率将上行，上证综合指数将下行。 （1）本周食品价格小幅下跌，非食品价格上涨。预计 6 月 CPI 食品价格环 比约为-0.5%，非食品价格环比约为零，整体 CPI 环比约为-0.1%，CPI 同比 小幅回升至零。 （2）6 月上旬流通领域生产资料价格定基指数继续下跌，中旬止跌回升。预 计 6 月 PPI 环比约为-0.3%，PPI 同比回落至-3.4%。 风险提示：海外市场动荡，存在不确定性。 核心观点 经济研究·宏观 ...

Group 1 - The policy governance goal has shifted from "Six Stabilities" to "Four Stabilities," focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, reflecting changes in the economic environment and governance thinking [1][15][17] - The emphasis on employment remains unchanged, with a record high of over 17.7 million new urban labor force and 12.22 million college graduates this year, highlighting the importance of job stability for consumer confidence and investment [1][15][18] - The integration of previously scattered policies into a more systematic approach allows for more precise interventions in the economy, focusing on the micro-foundations of economic operation [1][16][17] Group 2 - In the first quarter, China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.4%, driven by export "grab" effects, early issuance of local bonds for infrastructure investment, and the "new three items" investment boom [2][18][21] - The sustainability of these driving factors and the emergence of new growth momentum will significantly impact the economic outlook for the second half of the year [2][18][19] - The second quarter serves as a critical observation period for the effects of previous policies and the transition to subsequent policies, which will shape the economic trajectory [2][18][19] Group 3 - Exports have shown resilience, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 6% from January to May 2025, supported by increased non-U.S. exports and the "grab export" effect [3][21] - The "grab export" effect is expected to weaken, as the space for further "price-for-volume" strategies in U.S. exports diminishes [6][21][36] - The trade dynamics are influenced by ongoing U.S.-China tariff policies, with companies adjusting their strategies in response to changing tariffs [6][20][45] Group 4 - Consumer spending and investment have been stimulated by policies, with retail sales showing a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5% in the first five months of 2025 [4][23][27] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy and large-scale equipment updates have significantly contributed to this growth, with substantial government support for these initiatives [4][23][26] - Infrastructure investment has been bolstered by early local bond issuance, with a historic increase in special bonds and local government debt planned for 2025 [4][27] Group 5 - Economic internal dynamics show signs of weakness, particularly in major cities where consumer spending has declined, indicating a potential challenge for future growth [5][29][33] - Fixed asset investment growth has been uneven, with manufacturing and infrastructure performing well, while real estate investment continues to decline [5][31][33] - Price levels reflect ongoing demand issues, with CPI and PPI showing negative growth, indicating persistent economic challenges [5][33][36] Group 6 - The second half of 2025 may face significant pressures, including the impact of export uncertainties and the diminishing effects of stimulus policies [6][36][42] - Employment stability is under pressure, with a record number of college graduates entering the job market and potential job losses in export-oriented small and medium enterprises [7][43][46] - The interplay between employment stability and other economic factors such as enterprise stability, market stability, and expectations will be crucial for economic resilience [7][43][46]

会议分析了国内外经济金融形势，提出当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻，世界经济增长动能减弱，贸易壁垒 增多，主要经济体经济表现有所分化，通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性。我国经济呈现向好态 势，社会信心持续提振，高质量发展扎实推进，但仍面临国内需求不足、物价持续低位运行、风险隐患 较多等困难和挑战。要实施好适度宽松的货币政策，加强逆周期调节，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和 结构双重功能，加大货币财政政策协同配合，保持经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平。 会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议加大货币政策调控强度，提高货币政策调控前瞻性、针对 性、有效性，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏。保持流 动性充裕，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格 总水平预期目标相匹配。强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机制，发挥市场利率定价自 律机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督。推动社会综合融资成本下降。从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债 市运行情况，关注长期收益率的变化。畅通货币政策传导机制，提高资金使用效率，防范资金空转。增 强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期， ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20250628 指数突破新高后，市场怎么走？ 2025 年 06 月 28 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 近期市场呈现三大现象 现象一：沪指"三连阳"创年内新高后，资金急于寻找理由，但找到的理 由似乎都不足以解释这轮上涨。 现象二：上周（6/16-6/20，下同）路演交流中，明显感受到机构投资者偏 谨慎，港股部分本土及海外资金在今年新消费和医药行情中都有踏空。 现象三：情绪急剧反转，"三根阳线改变信仰"。上周投资者倾向落袋为安， 待回调再介入，但市场快速上涨后又转为乐观。 ◼ 核心解释框架：波动率的回归交易 怎么去解释近期市场的这三大现象？投资者们总是习惯于在市场上涨后， 从基本面中寻找能够解释走势的原因，然而这些原因似乎又都不够充分， 不足以支撑起股市的上行。事实上，真正导致本轮上涨的，是大家普遍低 估的一个要素——波动率。我们认为，本周（6/23-6/27，下同）沪指的"三 连阳"，本质上是波动率回归交易的结果。周一收盘时，上证指数 30 个交 易日的年化波动率降至 18.2%，创下近十年来新低，甚至低于 2018 年。市 场极端低波的状态，才是本轮 ...

Core Insights - Despite facing uncertainties from trade tensions and market expectations, China's industrial enterprises above designated size maintained a stable and positive development trend in the first five months of the year, particularly in the aerospace, aviation, and maritime industries, which are entering a rapid growth phase [1][2] Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first five months, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 27,204.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6,034.1 billion yuan compared to January-April, but a year-on-year decline of 1.1% due to insufficient effective demand and falling industrial product prices [1][2] - The gross profit of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing to a 3.0 percentage point increase in overall profits [1] - Revenue from industrial enterprises increased by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating a sustained growth trend that creates favorable conditions for future profit recovery [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Performance - The aerospace, aviation, and maritime industries saw significant profit growth, with profits in the railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace sectors increasing by 56.0% year-on-year [2] - Profits in aircraft manufacturing and spacecraft and rocket manufacturing grew by 120.7% and 28.6%, respectively, while related equipment manufacturing profits rose by 68.1% [2] - The shipbuilding and related equipment manufacturing sector experienced an 85.0% profit increase, with metal ship manufacturing profits soaring by 111.8% [2] Group 3: Economic Policy and Financing - The decline in profit growth for industrial enterprises indicates ongoing constraints from insufficient effective demand, necessitating more proactive macroeconomic policies and increased government investment in public goods [3] - The average interest rate for newly issued loans in May was approximately 3.2%, down about 50 basis points from the previous year, highlighting the need to boost effective financing demand [3] - The central bank's recent interest rate cut is expected to lower loan market rates, reducing the financial burden on industrial enterprises and aiding their recovery [3] Group 4: Policy Implementation and Sector Growth - Various regions and departments have intensified efforts to implement "two new" policies, effectively releasing domestic demand [4] - Profits in general and specialized equipment industries grew by 10.6% and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively, contributing 0.6 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth [4] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has shown significant effects, with profits in smart consumer device manufacturing and other household electrical appliance manufacturing increasing by 101.5% and 31.2%, respectively [4]