金十数据7月3日讯，Plante Moran Financial Advisors首席投资官Jim Baird表示，当前市场对劳动力市场 疲软的担忧仍被过分夸大。就业市场实际上仍保持稳定。但必须深入分析下一层数据——当看到私营部 门就业增长明显放缓时，仍需保持警惕。整体就业数据的强劲表现主要得益于州和地方政府岗位的大幅 增加，特别是教育行业。毫无疑问，我们仍处于招聘环境疲软的阶段。企业虽未大规模裁员，但在贸易 和税收政策前景明朗前，基本维持着保守的招聘策略。 机构：美国政府岗位撑起的就业繁荣难掩私营部门寒意 ...

白宫经济顾问委员会主席Miran：非农就业报告驳斥了批评者所宣扬的"悲观和无望"。呼吁关注自特朗 普上任以来推动就业增长的本土出生的美国人，而不是外国出生的工人。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000, with the previous value revised from 139,000 to 144,000 [1] - The unemployment rate for June fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.20% [1] - Average hourly wage growth for June was 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3%, and the year-over-year growth was 3.7%, also below the expected 3.9% [1] Group 2 - Following the non-farm data release, traders reduced bets on a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a September rate cut now at approximately 80%, down from 98% before the report [2] - The report indicated that job growth was primarily in government positions, with state and local government jobs increasing by 73,000, while federal government jobs decreased by 7,000 [2] - The construction sector saw an increase of 15,000 jobs in June, marking the largest gain since December of the previous year [2] Group 3 - Analysts noted that the employment report does not urgently call for an immediate rate cut by the Federal Reserve, as job growth has consistently exceeded expectations [3] - The decline in the unemployment rate may be linked to shrinking immigrant labor, with the number of foreign-born workers decreasing to 32.6 million in June from 33.7 million in March [3] - The employment report provided support for the U.S. dollar, indicating a resilient labor market despite some moderation in private employment data [3]

Industry Overview - In June, the non-farm employment in the U.S. oil and gas extraction industry decreased by approximately 500 jobs compared to the previous month and by about 900 jobs year-over-year [1] Employment Data - Total non-farm employment in June 2025 was reported at 160,475, showing a change of +147 from May 2025 [1] - Total private employment reached 136,947 in June 2025, with an increase of +74 from May 2025 [1] - The goods-producing sector employed 21,932 individuals in June 2025, reflecting a slight increase [1] Mining and Logging Sector - The mining and logging sector recorded 624 jobs in June 2025, a decrease of 2 from May 2025 [1] - Within this sector, oil and gas extraction specifically had 122.8 jobs in June 2025, down by 0.5 from May 2025 [1] - The mining (excluding oil and gas) segment remained stable at 194.7 jobs in June 2025, showing no change from the previous month [1] Specific Mining Activities - Coal mining employment was reported at 41.1 in June 2025, with a slight increase of 0.1 from May 2025 [1] - Metal ore mining saw a decrease to 44.3 jobs in June 2025, down by 0.3 from May 2025 [1] - Nonmetallic mineral mining and quarrying increased to 109.3 jobs in June 2025, reflecting a rise of 0.2 from May 2025 [1] Support Activities - Support activities for mining recorded 268.1 jobs in June 2025, a decrease of 1.5 from May 2025 [1]

美国劳工统计局今日报告称，6月份非农就业人数增加了147000人，失业率几乎持平，为4.1%。州政府 和医疗保健行业出现了就业增长，而联邦政府则继续裁员。 因经济原因而从事兼职工作的人员在6月份人数为450万人，变化不大。这些人本希望获得全职工作，但 因工时减少或无法找到全职岗位而只能做兼职。 6月份不在劳动力市场但当前有就业意愿的人数为600万人，基本与上月持平。由于这部分人员在调查前 4周未积极寻找工作或无法上岗，因此未被计入失业人口。 在不在劳动力市场但有就业意愿的人群中，边缘性劳动力（在调查前12个月曾找过工作、调查前4周内 未找过工作，但期望且有条件就业）6月份增加了234000人，达到180万人。被归为"失望劳动者"的边缘 性劳动力子集（认为无法找到工作的人）在6月份增加了256 000人，达到637 000人。 本新闻稿公布了两项月度调查的统计数据。家庭调查按人口特征衡量劳动力状况，包括失业情况；机构 调查则按行业衡量非农就业人数、工作时长和收入。有关这两项调查所使用的概念和统计方法的详细信 息，请参阅技术说明。 家庭调查数据 6月份失业率为4.1%，失业人数为700万人，两项数据与上月变化不大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is expected to soon highlight employment data, emphasizing that job growth has exceeded economists' predictions for the fourth consecutive time [1] Group 1 - Analyst Chris Anstey notes that the economic team will point out that various indicators have proven to be better than widely expected, including moderate inflation and robust job growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is currently conducting a routine review of its monetary policy strategy, with significant attention on the outcomes due to past controversies surrounding similar reviews [1][2]. Group 1: Review Focus Areas - The review will focus on the "long-term goals and monetary policy strategy statement" and communication tools [1]. - The results of the review are expected to be announced by late summer, with hints provided during a recent meeting led by Powell [1]. Group 2: Potential Changes in Strategy - Goldman Sachs economists predict that the review may lead to a softening of the "flexible average inflation targeting" policy established in late 2020 [1]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may reaffirm its response to "dual deviations" from maximum employment during normal times, potentially downplaying the term "shortfall" [2]. - There is a possibility of reverting to "flexible inflation targeting" as the primary strategy, while retaining the option for a "compensatory strategy" under certain conditions [2]. Group 3: Implications of Inflation Dynamics - Critics argue that the current strategy may have contributed to high inflation during the pandemic, although Powell and senior economists disagree [2]. - The implementation of the "flexible average inflation targeting" policy coincided with unique global economic shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which have complicated inflation dynamics [2][3]. Group 4: Communication Strategy Adjustments - Adjustments to the Fed's communication strategy may have more significant implications than the informal abandonment of the "flexible average inflation targeting" policy [4]. - Two specific suggestions for enhancing communication include providing alternative economic scenarios to highlight risks and linking FOMC officials' economic and interest rate forecasts while maintaining anonymity [5].

美国就业市场持稳，美联储或推迟至9月再重启降息 金十数据7月3日讯，美国6月就业市场表现稳健，非农就业人数增加14.7万人，高于5月修正后的14.4万 人；失业率意外下降至4.1%，经济学家此前预计将微升至4.3%。该报告表明劳动力市场保持稳定，这 可能使美联储将重启降息的时间推迟至9月。尽管就业增长超预期，但增速正在放缓，主要反映出招聘 活动疲软。裁员仍然相当低，在新冠大流行期间和之后，雇主普遍囤积工人，因为他们很难找到劳动 力。包括首次申请失业救济人数和领取失业金人数在内的多项指标显示，在经历了保护经济免于衰退的 强劲表现后，劳动力市场正显现疲态。当时美联储为对抗高通胀大幅收紧货币政策。 ...

纽约时报经济记者Lydia：有趣的是，州和地方政府依然在强劲扩张，6月共新增了8万个就业岗位。有 可能，自今年1月以来离开联邦政府的6.9万人中，有部分已在州或地方政府找到了工作。 ...

政府部门就业大幅增加 美国6月就业增长超出预期 金十数据7月3日讯，在特朗普呼吁降息之后，美国6月份的就业增长好于预期，劳动力市场表现出了惊 人的韧性。美国劳工统计局周四公布，经季节性因素调整后，当月非农就业人数增加14.7万人，高于预 期的11万人。失业率降至4.1%。就业人数稳步增长、失业率下降，平均时薪环比增长0.2%，同比增长 3.7%，表明通胀压力减弱。政府部门就业人数大幅增加，增幅居所有类别之首，增加了7.3万人，原因 是州政府和地方部门的就业大幅增加，尤其是与教育相关的工作岗位增加。联邦政府仍受到马斯克政府 效率部裁员的影响，损失了7000人。此外，医疗保健也很强劲，增加了3.9万人，而社会援助就业增加 了1.9万人。 ...