丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 如何理解产业政策空间？ ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Tablary] 今年 Q3 政策宽松可能迎来时间窗口，但市场对于政策空间的理解存在分歧。我们认为：1）常 规层面的产业政策空间确实相对有限，效果仅对应脉冲级别。2）但超常规层面的产业政策上限 还很高，剩下的主要是相机抉择问题；典型如针对居民购房的结构性货币或财政工具，也包括 公积金层面深度降息和提高额度，以及其他很多可延迟或者降低居民购房负担的政策手段。当 前开发类个股位置不高，政策宽松的必要性提高且时间点逐步临近，可择优配置等待交易窗口； 而具备稳定现金流和潜在高股息的商业、经纪和物管龙头，则是中长线配置机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 如何理解产业政策空间？ 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 核心观点 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 止跌回稳的政策目 ...

宏 观 研 究 货币政策 2025 年 06 月 29 日 对地产和物价的关注度提升 ——2025 年二季度货币政策委员会例会解读 事件：6 月 27 日，央行发布中国人民银行货币政策委员会 2025 年第二季度例会全文。 ⚫ 经济形势分析：社会信心持续提振，但仍面临国内需求不足、物价持续低位运行等挑战。 央行对上半年经济表现给予高度评价，指出"我国经济呈现向好态势，社会信心持续提振"。 较一季度例会"我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进"的表述更显积极，尤其突出社会信心 的修复。后续央行或根据经济形势与预期变化动态调整政策节奏。 ⚫ 热点议题：持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势；做好"两重""两新"等重点领域的融资支持。 风险挑战方面，会议在延续"国内需求不足"判断的同时，新增"物价持续低位运行"的 表述。事实上，一季度货币政策执行报告已提升对物价的关注度，专栏六分析实体经济供 求关系及物价变动，明确提出"价格调控思路上，也要从以前的管高价转向管低价，从支 持规模扩张转向高质量发展，从防垄断转向防无序竞争。" ⚫ 货币政策思路：灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏。 关于后续政策操作，会议提出"灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏"，与 ...

周观点：央行强调加大收储推进力度 央行召开 2025 年第二季度例会，房地产层面，会议要求着力推动已 出台金融政策措施落地见效，加大存量商品房和存量土地盘活力度， 持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势，完善房地产金融基础性制度，助力构 建房地产发展新模式。 我们认为，在当前 5、6 月，房地产复苏动能减弱，市场下行压力增 加的背景下，7 月将迎来新一轮的政策宽松周期，今年以来出台的包 括收储、城中村改造及对房企的融资宽松政策，预计在三季度将加大 实施力度，助力行业止跌回稳。建议关注困境反转类房企：金地集团、 新城控股等；保持拿地强度的龙头招商蛇口、绿城中国、保利发展、 滨江集团等；多元经营稳健发展的地方国企浦东金桥、外高桥等。 销售回顾（6.21-6.27） 重点监测 32 城合计成交总套数为 2.4 万套，环比上周增长 41%；2025 年累计成交总套数为 40.6 万套，累计同比下降 4.6%。其中，一线城 市成交 6085 套，环比上周增长 36.2%，2025 年累计成交 11.6 万套， 累计同比增长 9.6%；二线城市成交 15455 套，环比上周增长 47.4%， 2025 年累计成交 24.2 万套，累 ...

Core Insights - A record price of 6.25 million AUD was achieved for a property in Roseville Chase, Sydney, attracting over 200 attendees at the auction [1][4] - The property, located at 8 Warrane Rd, is the highest price for a sub-1000 square meter lot in the area and the third highest overall [1][4] - The auction started with a low opening bid but quickly escalated, indicating strong market demand [4][8] Property Details - The property features five bedrooms, four bathrooms, and a swimming pool, covering an area of 681 square meters, with a guide price of 5.3 million AUD [4] - The previous owner, a local developer, purchased the original house on the lot last August, demolished it, and rebuilt the new home [5] Market Trends - Market confidence has been strong since the recent elections, with a surge in buyers following the second interest rate cut [8] - There has been an influx of both returning and new buyers, leading to increased demand despite a similar number of properties available compared to the previous year [8] - PropTrack data indicates that Roseville Chase is one of the hardest areas to buy property in Sydney, with only 2% of homes changing hands annually, compared to an overall turnover rate of 4.6% in Sydney [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the real estate market policies are continuously tightening, creating investment opportunities in building materials. Recent policies from the central bank and local governments aim to support home purchases and improve safety in construction sites, indicating a shift towards a balanced supply-demand dynamic in the real estate market [3][4] - Recommended stocks in the consumer building materials sector include Sankeshu (channel penetration and retail expansion), Dongfang Yuhong (waterproof leader with optimized operational structure), Weixing New Materials (high-quality operations with a significant retail business), and Jianlang Wujin. Beneficiary stocks include Beixin Building Materials (gypsum board leader with diversified expansion in coatings and waterproof sectors) [3] - The report also notes that the National Development and Reform Commission has issued a plan for energy conservation and carbon reduction in the cement industry, aiming to control cement clinker capacity to around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025, which is expected to accelerate the iteration of energy-saving and efficient equipment [3][4] Market Performance - The building materials index increased by 2.41% in the week from June 23 to June 27, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.95%, resulting in a 0.46 percentage point advantage [4][13] - Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index has risen by 0.88%, while the building materials index has decreased by 3.79%, indicating a 4.67 percentage point underperformance [4][13] - In the past year, the CSI 300 index has increased by 13.29%, while the building materials index has only risen by 7.19%, showing a 6.11 percentage point underperformance [4][13] Cement Sector - As of June 27, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 284.72 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.47% month-on-month. The price trends varied by region, with Northeast China seeing a significant drop of 21.95% [6][24] - The clinker inventory ratio reached 69.36%, an increase of 1.27 percentage points from the previous month [6][25] Glass Sector - The report indicates that the spot price of float glass as of June 27, 2025, was 1200.53 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.13%. The inventory of float glass decreased by 2.51%, with a total of 59 million weight boxes [6][75] - The average price of photovoltaic glass was 120.70 yuan/weight box, down by 3.44% [6][78] Fiberglass Sector - The report notes that the price of fiberglass remains stable, with various types of fiberglass priced between 3400 to 6600 yuan/ton depending on the type and region [6][3] Consumer Building Materials - The report tracks the prices of key raw materials for consumer building materials, noting slight fluctuations. For instance, the price of asphalt remained stable at 4520 yuan/ton, while the price of acrylic acid increased by 1.87% to 6825 yuan/ton [6][3]

Core Viewpoint - China is facing dual challenges of declining birth rates and falling housing prices, which are interconnected and pose significant concerns for the country's economic and social development [1][2]. Group 1: Birth Rate Decline - In 2023, the number of newborns in China reached a historical low of 9.02 million, a nearly 50% decrease from 17.58 million in 2017 [1]. - The high cost of housing is widely regarded as a major factor contributing to the declining birth rate, with the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities dropping to 14,653 yuan per square meter in July 2024, marking a 27-month consecutive decline [1]. - The marriage rate has also dropped significantly, with only 3.43 million couples registering for marriage in the first half of the year, a decrease of 498,000 compared to the previous year [1]. Group 2: Government Response - The Chinese government is seeking a balance between stabilizing the housing market and promoting higher birth rates, recognizing that both are crucial for short-term economic stability and long-term national development [2]. - Since 2016, the government has implemented extensive regulations on the real estate market, with 650 regulatory actions taken in 2021 alone, leading to a turning point in the market [2]. - Measures to alleviate housing market pressure include relaxing purchase and loan restrictions, reducing mortgage rates to historical lows, and lowering down payment ratios from 30% to 20% [2]. Group 3: Housing and Marriage Initiatives - The government plans to construct 6 million affordable housing units over the next five years, averaging 1.2 million units annually, to meet the housing needs of low-income urban families [2]. - The construction of affordable housing is expected to ease housing pressure for low-income families, creating a more favorable environment for marriage and childbirth [2]. - Recent amendments to marriage registration regulations have removed the requirement for a household registration book, allowing couples to register for marriage with just their ID cards, thereby lowering the barriers to marriage [4]. Group 4: Long-term Strategy - The Chinese government is employing multiple strategies to balance the housing market and birth rate, aiming for sustainable development through reduced housing pressure, increased affordable housing supply, and simplified marriage registration processes [6]. - This approach is seen as a long-term battle that requires collaboration among the government, society, and individuals to address the challenges posed by demographic changes [6].

曾经，商品房市场一片火热，新楼盘开盘即售罄，售楼处员工轻松惬意。然而，近年来，疫情和调控政策的双重影响下，房地产市场骤然降温，房屋销售 日渐艰难。然而，一个奇怪的现象却引起了我们的注意：即使销售业绩惨淡，售楼处依然聚集着众多年轻貌美的女性员工，且工作热情不减。这背后究竟 隐藏着什么秘密？我们专访了一位房地产从业人员，她为我们揭开了这层神秘面纱。 最后，相对轻松的工作内容和灵活的工作时间也吸引着年轻女性。经过短期的培训便可上岗，无需繁琐的流程和苛刻的管理。精心打扮，展现个人魅力， 是她们主要的销售技巧。此外，工作时间也相对自由，无需加班加点，这与其他行业女性需要长时间工作的压力形成了鲜明的对比，满足了她们对工作与 生活平衡的需求。 售楼处的工作，对于她们来说，更像是一份高薪、轻松且充满机遇的兼职，而不是一份需要付出巨大努力的职业。 其次，舒适的工作环境也是一大吸引力。售楼处的工作环境冬暖夏凉，与其他需要四处奔波的销售行业相比，舒适度明显更高，这尤其吸引了追求工作生 活平衡的年轻女性。此外，来访售楼处的客户多为高净值人群，这为年轻女性提供了拓展人脉、结识上流人士的机会，为未来的职业发展奠定基础。 " 再次，年轻女 ...

2024年全国两会闭幕，政府工作报告中对房地产市场部署的"两大工作重点"——稳妥处置风险隐患和健全风险防控长效措施，为今年楼市走向定下了基调。 这两大举措，既要化解当前房地产市场的风险，又要建立长效机制，最终目标是实现楼市的持续健康发展。 中央此番定调，并非无的放矢，其背后是基于 对当前房地产市场风险的深刻洞察和对未来发展的长远规划。让我们深入解读这两大工作重点，剖析其具体措施，以期洞悉2024年房地产市场的趋势，并据 此制定合理的应对策略。 3. 购房者断供风险: 房价下跌和家庭收入下降导致断供现象增加，给银行带来巨大的金融风险。政府将全力稳定楼市，避免房价剧烈波动，并进一步下调房 贷利率，减轻购房者的还贷压力，以稳定市场预期，降低断供风险。 2. 开发商销售业绩下滑风险: 去年商品房销售面积同比下降8.5%（11.17亿平方米），开发商业绩持续下滑、库存积压，导致资金链紧张，甚至破产。预计今 年更多地区将放开"限价令"，更多开发商将采取"降价促销"策略回笼资金，以应对市场压力。 2. 全面推进城中村改造工程: 这项工程已全面启动，旨在对城中村的危房和规划用地进行改造和更新。改造过程中产生的巨额拆迁补偿款和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing initial signs of stabilization and recovery in the first half of 2025, although the underlying foundation remains fragile. A series of policies initiated since last year have contributed to a notable rebound in the market, particularly in core first- and second-tier cities, despite some fluctuations in sales and prices in April and May [2][3][7]. Policy Measures - The State Council's meeting on June 13 emphasized the need for a comprehensive assessment of existing land and ongoing projects in the real estate sector, aiming to optimize current policies and enhance their effectiveness to stabilize expectations, activate demand, and mitigate risks [3][9]. - The 2025 real estate policy framework focuses on stabilizing expectations, promoting demand, optimizing supply, and preventing risks through financial support, demand stimulation, and revitalization of existing resources [11][12]. Market Performance - From January to May 2025, new residential sales area and sales revenue decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively, but the decline was significantly less than in 2024, indicating a recovery trend [7]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties decreased to 77.427 million square meters by the end of May 2025, marking a continuous decline for three months [8]. Land Market Activity - The land market in core cities has shown signs of recovery, with significant transactions occurring in cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou, despite a national decline in land transaction volume [9]. Housing Supply and Demand - Local governments are implementing measures to relax purchase restrictions, provide subsidies, and optimize public housing policies to stimulate demand [12][13]. - The housing provident fund policies have been adjusted to lower interest rates and expand usage, enhancing affordability for homebuyers [13]. New Development Model - The shift towards a new real estate development model emphasizes a balanced approach to housing supply, focusing on quality and service rather than just speed and scale [16][19]. - The government is promoting urban renewal as a key strategy to revitalize existing assets and support long-term operational models in the real estate sector [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry in 2025 is facing significant challenges, including financing difficulties and the need for debt restructuring among property companies, while the government is implementing more proactive fiscal policies to stabilize the market [1][2][3]. Financing and Debt Restructuring - Financing difficulties remain prominent, with property companies' financing in the first half of 2025 reaching 184.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 30% [7]. - The approval of "white list" loans for real estate has increased, with 6.7 trillion approved by May 2025, indicating some marginal improvement in financing support [3][5]. - The cost of offshore bond financing for property companies in the first half of 2025 was 8.60%, while domestic bond financing costs decreased to 2.71% [9][10]. - The total debt maturity for property companies in 2025 is projected to be 532.7 billion, with the third quarter being a peak repayment period [14]. Government Policies and Market Stabilization - The government is maintaining a loose monetary policy and has proposed a special bond issuance of 4.4 trillion for local governments, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [3][5]. - Urban renewal is a key focus for 2025, with significant progress in the renovation of old urban areas, with 5,679 projects initiated in the first four months [4][17]. - The government emphasizes the need for a new sustainable development model in the real estate sector, with urban renewal as a critical strategy [17]. Industry Outlook and Opportunities - The successful debt restructuring of companies like Xiexin and Jinke provides a model for other struggling firms, indicating a potential path for industry-wide risk mitigation [13][16]. - The ongoing urban renewal efforts are expected to create new opportunities for capable property companies, encouraging them to enhance housing quality and competitiveness [17].