10年期日本国债收益率升至1.595%，创2008年10月以来最高。 ...

7月15日消息，日本10年期国债收益率升至2008年以来最高水平。 ...

日本10年期国债收益率升至2008年以来最高水平，日内上行2.5bp至1.595%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes that China does not seek to gain international competitive advantages through currency devaluation, maintaining a stable and reasonable level for the RMB exchange rate [1][3]. Exchange Rate and Economic Context - The RMB has been appreciating against the USD, with the dollar index dropping from above 109 to around 97, a decline of 11% [2]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield peaked at over 4.8% but has recently retreated to about 4.4% [2]. - China's economic fundamentals remain strong, with a GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year in Q1, and the market is expected to stabilize with a balanced international payment situation [3]. Bond Market and Investment Policies - The PBOC acknowledges that some small and medium-sized banks are adopting aggressive bond investment strategies, which can be reasonable within regulatory limits [4]. - Bond investments constitute a significant part of banks' assets, with loans and bonds making up 60% and 25% of total assets, respectively [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the bond market issued 44.3 trillion yuan, a 16% increase year-on-year, with net financing of 8.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 38.6% of the social financing increment [5]. Risk Management and Regulatory Oversight - The PBOC stresses the need for small and medium-sized banks to maintain a reasonable balance in bond investments, considering both returns and risks [5]. - The central bank will enhance market monitoring and share information on high-risk institutions with regulatory bodies to mitigate financial market risks [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, despite a decline in operating income due to market conditions [2][3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company to be between 13.31 million and 14.31 million yuan, representing an increase of 4.61 million to 5.61 million yuan, or a growth of 53.02% to 64.52% year-on-year [3][5]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 9.95 million and 10.95 million yuan, which indicates a decrease of 1.92 million to 2.91 million yuan, or a decline of 14.89% to 22.66% year-on-year [3][5]. Previous Year Comparison - In the first half of 2024, the total profit was 10.14 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company at 8.70 million yuan, and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses at 12.87 million yuan [7]. Reasons for Profit Increase - The increase in net profit is primarily attributed to the recovery of the securities market, which has positively impacted the investment income and fair value changes of the company's financial assets [9]. - However, the operating income has slightly decreased due to the impact of consumer upgrades and channel transformations in retail products [9].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced a notable increase, indicating a shift in market sentiment and potential implications for investment strategies [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - The 10-year benchmark U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.60 basis points, reaching 4.4253%, with intraday trading between 4.4014% and 4.4432% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 1.06 basis points, settling at 3.8956%, with a trading range of 3.8726% to 3.9082% during the day [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - A significant V-shaped reversal occurred in the U.S. stock market around the time of the opening, suggesting a volatile trading environment influenced by the changes in Treasury yields [1]

| | | 关键期限国债 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 买人 | 藝冊 | 现价 | 涨跌BP | | 3M 美国国债 | 4.338 | 4.327 | 4.327 | -1.08 | | 4M 美国国债 | 4.352 | 4.342 | 4.342 | 0.09 | | 6M 美国国债 | 4.271 | 4.260 | 4.260 | 0.15 | | 1Y 美国国债 | 4.068 | 4.057 | 4.057 | -0.04 | | 2Y 美国国债 | 3.896 | 3.894 | 3.894 | 0.85 | | 3Y 美国国债 | 3.872 | 3.869 | 3.869 | 1.67 | | 5Y 美国国债 | 3.982 | 3.980 | 3.980 | 1.06 | | 7Y 美国国债 | 4.190 | 4.188 | 4.188 | 1.85 | | 20Y 美国国债 | 4.973 | 4.971 | 4.971 | 2.86 | | 30Y 美国国债 | 4.981 | 4.979 | 4.979 | 3.31 ...

作为全球无风险定价的"锚点"，美债为全球金融市场提供了核心定价基准。 不过，由于"大而美"法案正式签署将进一步增加美国财政赤字负担，同时特朗普政府挑起的全球关税冲突仍存在不确定性，长期美债收益率再次走高。 | F9 叠加 画线 | 工具 > | CBOT长期美债 | | | | US 7 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7.00万 振 0.36% 5/01/07-2025/07/14 (134日) ▼ | | 112.75000 | | | | -0.15625 | | | | 06:23:13 延时 | | | | -0.14% = | | | 122.1562 | 卖一 | 112.78125 | | 562 | | | | 120.8090 | | 112.75000 | | 147 | | | | | 总量 | 7万 现手 | | | | | | 119.4618 | 结算价 | . 开盘 | | | 113.00000 | | | 118.1145 | 最高 | 113.03125 最低 | | | 112.62500 | | | | ...

身边的人 股民a，老王，今年赚30万，穿破洞汗衫，不舍得买新衣，一门心思研究股票！ 股民b，冯女士，今年盈利颇丰（不详），估计赚50万，没车，也不给老公买车！ 股民c，李哥，今年赚8万左右，电脑是2016年买的，开机要5分钟，骑电瓶车，不打算买车！ 菠萝它爸 观点跟您相反，虽然以前是那种一毛不拔的人，但是也没攒下什么财富，现在是能力范围内，买 商品和服务，都买贵的，因为贵不一定好，但是便宜大概率没好货，而我们投资者的时间宝贵， 花时间去便宜里面选好货，完全没必要。 我90年的，上半年赚点钱了，正好媳妇车追尾了别人的，不严重，但是既然赚钱了那索性给她换 了一辆新车。 股民d，新股民小王，大学生刚毕业，本金不超过5万，今年盈利2万，生活简朴，理发不超过10 元。 股民e,本人，今年盈利10%，不喝奶茶不吃零食，5年买一次衣服，3年买一次鞋，最爱某多多！ 真实！ luckzpz 光看今年？ 楼主也许不知道他们过去几年是怎么过来的。 SJ666888 我们家已经进化到剪头发都在家自己解决的地步了。 因为我的账户有好几个，高风险的就是期货账户里面钱多，每单盈利，都会拿出10%给媳妇存下 来，她会定投黄金或者美股或者高息 ...

Core Insights - Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) is expected to report earnings of $2.68 per share and sales of $22.86 billion on July 16, 2025, compared to $2.82 per share and $22.45 billion in the same quarter last year [3] - The company has a market capitalization of $378 billion and reported $89 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with $22 billion in operating profits and $22 billion in net income [4] Historical Performance - Historically, JNJ has delivered positive one-day returns in 55% of cases following earnings announcements over the past five years, with a median positive return of 2.3% and a peak one-day positive return of 6.1% [2][7] - Over the last five years, there have been 20 recorded earnings data points, with 11 resulting in positive and 9 in negative one-day returns [7] - The percentage of positive one-day returns drops to 33% when analyzing data from the last three years [7] Trading Strategies - Traders may consider taking a position prior to the earnings release based on historical data or wait for the earnings to be disclosed to analyze immediate and medium-term returns [6] - A correlation analysis between short-term and medium-term returns can guide trading choices, particularly if 1D and 5D returns demonstrate a strong correlation [8]