Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: After Trump postponed 50% of the tariffs, the EU stated that the EU - US trade negotiations had "new impetus" and planned to "advance rapidly." Japan planned to use LNG projects and shipbuilding technology to seek tariff concessions from the US, aiming to reach an agreement by mid - June. ECB President Lagarde said the euro could become an alternative to the US dollar. Domestically, the market rotation was fast, the main driving force was weak, and trading volume was insufficient, so the stock index might fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Since early May, factors such as the profit - taking after the "dual cuts," the bond market's risk - aversion sentiment due to the 90 - day tariff suspension, concerns about "deposit migration" after the deposit rate cut, and worries about bond issuance supply had a bearish impact on the bond market. Current bond market investors were generally cautious, and the view of "bullish but not buying" limited the depth of market adjustment to some extent and provided the probability and odds for subsequent trading [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 fell 0.61%, that of SSE 50 fell 0.46%, that of CSI 500 rose 0.33%, and that of CSI 1000 rose 0.69% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.00%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.13%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index suggested a weak trend [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract showed a fluctuating and strong trend [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3,831.20 | - 0.61 | 62,863 | 138,782 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,684.40 | - 0.46 | 34,244 | 51,685 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5,594.60 | 0.33 | 56,454 | 110,791 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5,925.00 | 0.49 | 133,893 | 181,503 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.855 | 0.00 | 52,310 | 166,526 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.060 | 0.01 | 48,389 | 125,742 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.760 | 0.13 | 58,787 | 91,927 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.430 | 0.03 | 31,127 | 102,629 | [12]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that if governments strengthen the financial and security framework of the Eurozone, the Euro could become a viable alternative to the US Dollar, benefiting the G20 significantly [1][3]. Group 1: Euro's Global Role - The Euro's global role has stagnated for decades due to the lack of a robust financial system in the EU and insufficient willingness among governments for further integration [1][3]. - Lagarde emphasized that the Euro will not automatically gain influence and requires concerted efforts to enhance its global standing [1][3]. - Currently, the US Dollar accounts for 58% of global foreign exchange reserves, the lowest in decades, while the Euro holds only 20% [3]. Group 2: Military and Economic Strength - Lagarde pointed out that to elevate the Euro's status, Europe must simultaneously enhance its military capabilities to support partnerships [3]. - She noted that investors, particularly official ones, seek geopolitical security and are inclined to invest in regions that can provide reliable security partnerships [3]. Group 3: Economic Reforms and Capital Markets - The need for deeper and more liquid capital markets in Europe was highlighted, along with the necessity for a stronger legal foundation and security capabilities to support open trade commitments [1][3]. - Lagarde stressed that internal economic reforms are urgent, as the Eurozone's capital markets remain fragmented and inefficient, lacking widely available safe assets for investors [3][4]. - She suggested that joint financing could provide a basis for gradually increasing the supply of safe assets in Europe, despite concerns from major Eurozone members about shared fiscal responsibilities [4]. Group 4: Ukraine's Currency Considerations - The Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine indicated that Ukraine is considering linking its currency more closely to the Euro instead of the Dollar, driven by increasing ties with Europe and global trade fragmentation [4]. - The shift towards the Euro is seen as complex and requires comprehensive preparation, although Euro-denominated transactions are gradually increasing in various sectors [4].

美股周一休市，美股期货涨超1%；欧股反弹、汽车板块涨近2%；欧元创本月内新高；黄金回 落，比特币一度重上11万大关。 特朗普推迟50%关税后，欧盟称欧美贸易谈判有"新动力"，计划"快速推进"，贸易专员周一称和 美官员进行了"良好通话"。 报道称日本计划拿LNG项目+造船技术换美国关税让步，力争6月中达成协议。 加州考虑就苹果手机关税起诉美国联邦政府。 美联储明年票委：宽松暂停期可能更长，"不确定"形势是否足够明朗。 欧洲央行行长拉加德：欧元可能成为美元的替代，近期全球动荡为"欧元全球化时刻"创造契机。 报道称OPEC+本周预计决定继续大幅增产，据称意将油价压低至60美元以下。 中办、国办：推动企业健全工资合理增长机制、支持上市公司引入持股比例5%以上的机构投资者 作为积极股东。 媒体称特朗普媒体集团计划为加密货币募资30亿美元。 美团Q1营收超预期同比增长18.1%，核心、新业务均表现亮眼，闪购强劲增长；电话会：将不惜 代价赢得竞争，预计Q2本地商业营业利润率大降，暂无法提供准确业绩指引。 提醒：北京时间周二上午将公布中国4月规模以上工业企业利润数据。 ...

Group 1 - ECB President Lagarde stated that if governments strengthen the financial and security framework of the Eurozone, the euro could become a viable alternative to the US dollar, benefiting the G20 significantly [1] - Global investors have been reducing exposure to dollar assets due to erratic US economic policies, with many opting for gold instead of direct alternatives [1] - The euro's global standing has stagnated for decades due to an incomplete EU financial system and a lack of interest in further integration among member states [1] Group 2 - Lagarde emphasized that any enhancement of the euro's status must be matched by stronger military capabilities to support partnerships, as investors seek geopolitical security [2] - The euro should become the preferred currency for international trade invoices, achievable through new trade agreements, enhanced cross-border payments, and liquidity agreements with the ECB [2] - Reforming the domestic economy is urgent, as the Eurozone capital markets remain fragmented and inefficient, lacking truly liquid and widely available safe assets for investors [2] Group 3 - Joint financing is necessary for public goods, which could lay the foundation for gradually increasing the supply of safe assets in Europe [2] - Joint issuance of bonds remains a taboo for key Eurozone members, particularly Germany, due to concerns about taxpayers potentially covering the fiscal irresponsibility of other countries [2] - Successful reforms could lead to significant benefits, including lower borrowing costs for domestic companies, protection from exchange rate fluctuations, and shielding from international sanctions [2]

欧元兑美元目前涨0.2%，报1.1384。 欧盟计划加速与美国谈判，从而避免大西洋两岸发生贸易战。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, stated that U.S. policies have created opportunities to enhance the global status of the euro [1] Group 1 - Lagarde emphasized that the current U.S. monetary policy environment is beneficial for the euro's international standing [1] - The comments suggest a strategic positioning of the euro in response to U.S. economic actions [1] - There is an implication that the eurozone could leverage these opportunities to strengthen its economic influence globally [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, stated that U.S. policies have created opportunities to enhance the global status of the euro [1] Group 1 - Lagarde emphasized that the current U.S. monetary policy environment is beneficial for the euro's international standing [1] - The European Central Bank is looking to leverage these opportunities to strengthen the euro against other currencies [1]

1、习近平对精神文明建设工作作出重要指示强调 推动精神文明建设高质量发展 为强国建设民族复兴提 供强大精神力量 蔡奇出席全国精神文明建设表彰大会并讲话； 2、央视快评：为强国建设民族复兴提供强大精神力量； 3、习近平同德国总理通电话； 4、习近平向罗马尼亚当选总统达恩致贺电； 5、李强主持召开国务院常务会议； 6、韩正会见土库曼斯坦议长； 7、"两新"政策效应显现 有效激发内需潜力； 8、【在希望的田野上·三夏时节】各地抢抓夏收夏种 夯实粮食丰收基础； 9、国务院新闻办举行"新征程上的奋斗者"中外记者见面会； 10、"外媒看中国"首场采访活动走进渝鄂； 11、财政部下达14亿元农业防灾救灾资金； 12、今年1到4月我国消费品品种新增809.8万种； 13、2025年"特岗计划"招聘工作启动； 14、全国妇联等11部门部署开展2025年"六一"庆祝活动； 15、《国家网络身份认证公共服务管理办法》今日公布； 16、中老铁路货物运输量突破6000万吨； 17、乙巳年世界华人炎帝故里寻根节在湖北随州举行； 18、2025上合组织国家媒体合作论坛在新疆举行； 19、联合国贸发会称美关税政策无视世贸规则 冲击脆弱经济体 ...

Group 1: Dollar Cycle and Economic Impact - The dollar cycle reflects the relative strength of the U.S. economy and global investor portfolio adjustments, with a strong U.S. economy leading to dollar appreciation and increased capital inflows[1] - In 2025, the dollar is expected to enter a short-term correction due to the negative impact of Trump 2.0 on the U.S. economy, which may undermine investor confidence in the dollar[1] - The dollar's share in the international monetary system may decline as global economic multipolarity increases and countries diversify their reserve assets[1] Group 2: Economic and Inflation Forecasts - U.S. GDP growth is projected at 2.9% in 2023, decreasing to 1.4% in 2025, while PCE inflation is expected to stabilize around 2.8%[2] - The Eurozone's GDP growth is forecasted to be 0.4% in 2023 and 0.8% in 2025, with CPI inflation expected to decrease from 5.5% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2025[2] - The U.S. federal funds target rate is anticipated to be 5.33% in 2023, dropping to 4.00% by 2025[2] Group 3: Dollar Index and Its Influences - The dollar index, which is a weighted average of the dollar against six major currencies, has seen significant fluctuations, with a long-term upward trend since 2008[3] - The euro/dollar exchange rate, which accounts for nearly 60% of the dollar index, has a decisive influence on its movements, with a correlation of 0.7 to 0.8 with U.S.-Eurozone interest rate differentials[3] - The dollar index is expected to decline to around 97 by the end of 2025 due to trade wars and narrowing economic growth differentials between the U.S. and Eurozone[3] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - Market risk preferences significantly affect capital flows, with a tendency for funds to return to dollar assets during risk-off periods, strengthening the dollar index[1] - The anticipated Trump 2.0 trade war may lead to a decrease in the allocation of dollar assets by international investors, exacerbating the dollar's depreciation[1] - The dollar's dominant position in international payments and reserves remains intact, despite fluctuations, with its share in global reserves projected to be 57.8% by 2024[1]

欧洲央行会议纪要：不确定性、欧元升值以及油气价格下跌，将进一步抑制近期的通胀前景。 ...