智通财经7月2日电，台币兑美元上涨0.4%至29.068。 ...

| UH AT PA III | 11 1 1 2 11 1 | | --- | --- | | SOURCE POINT | SOURCE POINT | | 三十年十日代 | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/07/02 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/07/01 | 4.243 | 4.453 | 3.250 | 2.605 | 3.448 | 3.213 | 0.386 | 3.279 | | 最新变化 | 0.013 | -0.035 | -0.034 | 0.000 | -0.027 | -0.027 | -0.020 | -0.011 | | 一周变化 | -0.053 | -0.019 | 0.000 | 0.063 | -0.013 | 0.009 | 0.035 | 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current economic conditions in the Eurozone do not warrant further monetary easing, as the economy is gradually recovering and inflation is near target levels [1][3]. Economic Policy - The European Central Bank (ECB) can maintain stable borrowing costs during its upcoming meeting, as there have been eight rate cuts since June 2024 and inflation is "basically at target" [1]. - ECB officials believe that the inflation rate will stabilize around the 2% target in the medium term after dipping below this level in 2026 [3]. Trade Relations - The ECB is closely monitoring the evolving trade relationship between the EU and the US, particularly the impact of tariffs set by the Trump administration on the EU economy [3]. - There is uncertainty regarding the specific situation in September, but officials expect to gain clearer insights into trade and fiscal plans for better assessments [3]. Inflation Risks - Risks affecting the inflation outlook, such as potential supply chain disruptions, fiscal spending, and energy price fluctuations, are considered to be in a balanced state [3]. - The strong euro, which has appreciated by 14% against the dollar since the beginning of the year, may complicate policy decisions for the ECB [3][4]. Currency Impact - A strong euro can lower import prices and reduce the competitiveness of exports, both of which can suppress inflation [4]. - Despite the rapid appreciation of the euro, ECB officials do not express significant concern, noting that the current exchange rate remains within historical ranges [4].

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong has purchased HKD 20.018 billion in local currency to defend its currency peg system [1] Group 1 - The action taken by Hong Kong is aimed at maintaining the stability of the linked exchange rate system [1] - The purchase of HKD 20.018 billion indicates a proactive approach to currency management amid market fluctuations [1]

智通财经7月2日电，香港买入200.18亿港元本币捍卫联系汇率制。 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the market by purchasing HKD 20.018 billion due to the Hong Kong dollar reaching the weak side of the peg [1] - This action reflects the HKMA's commitment to maintaining the currency peg between the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar [1] - The intervention indicates potential pressure on the Hong Kong dollar, suggesting that market conditions may be influencing currency stability [1]

周二（7月1日）纽约尾盘，美元兑日元跌0.40%，报143.45日元，日内交投区间为144.08-142.68日元。 ...

Group 1 - The onshore Chinese yuan (CNY) closed at 7.1650 against the US dollar, reflecting a decline of 14 points compared to the previous night session [1] - The trading volume for the yuan was reported at 44.223 billion USD [1]

当前，无需为了刺激经济而降息。 欧洲央行管委Muller：可以在7月份维持利率不变。 欧元汇率近期大幅上涨，但仍然处于历史波动范畴之内。 ...

各位朋友晚上好，我是帮主郑重。今儿国际金融圈有场重头戏——五大央行掌门人同台亮相，聊的全是利率、通胀这些跟咱钱包息息相关的事儿。鲍威 尔、拉加德这些大佬一开口，全球市场都得竖着耳朵听。咱今儿就用接地气的方式，掰开了看看他们话里藏着啥玄机，中长线投资该往哪儿使劲。 先说说美联储的鲍威尔，他这话里可全是"太极功夫"。说7月能不能降息"现在不好说"，得看数据。但转头又说美国经济"挺硬朗"，言外之意就是——只 要经济不垮，咱就先不松油门。最有意思的是他提通胀，说夏天可能会反弹，但要是不算关税影响，通胀其实在按剧本走。这话咋理解？就好比你家空 调显示26度，但窗户没关严，实际温度得打个折。鲍威尔心里清楚，关税这事儿正在给通胀"加柴火"，但嘴上不能把话说死。还有他提美国债务，说"路 径不可持续"，这就像开车油表亮红灯，知道得找加油站，但眼下还能撑着开。 再看欧洲央行的拉加德，态度有点"微妙"。她说通胀目标"差不多达到了"，但还得"瞪大眼睛盯着"。这就像考试刚及格，老师说"别得意，错题本还得反 复看"。欧洲现在的问题是，能源价格消停了，但工资涨得有点猛，怕企业把成本转嫁到物价上。她还提到汇率会影响政策判断，欧元最近涨得挺欢 ...