Market Overview - The three major stock indices rose across the board, with the ChiNext Index increasing by over 1% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.52% at 3402.32 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.83% to 10246.02 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.21% to 2061.87 points [1] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 128.69 billion yuan, a decrease of over 16 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as insurance, brokerage, and automotive saw significant gains, while non-ferrous metals, agriculture, real estate, coal, and steel also experienced upward movement [1] - The rare earth concept showed strong performance, and sectors related to digital currency, online gaming, and short video games were active [1] Investment Opportunities - Huazhong Securities indicated that positive factors continue to accumulate in the current market volatility, with opportunities emerging in the new consumption sector [1] - The banking and insurance sectors are highlighted as having strong short-term allocation demand and long-term strategic investment value [1] Silver Market Insights - Global industrial demand for silver is expected to account for approximately 58.5% in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, driven primarily by photovoltaic demand [2] - Despite a marginal decline in silver paste consumption, the demand for silver in photovoltaics is expected to remain resilient due to ongoing increases in installed capacity and component structure optimization [2] - A global silver shortage is anticipated to persist into 2025, with a gradual increase in price levels expected [2] Hydrogen Energy Development - The National Energy Administration has officially launched hydrogen energy pilot projects to promote innovative management models and explore diversified development paths for the hydrogen industry [3] - The pilot projects aim to develop a comprehensive hydrogen energy supply chain, including production, storage, transportation, and utilization [3] - The focus on hydrogen energy aligns with national strategies for enhancing safety capabilities in key sectors [3] Waterway Construction Opportunities - China's natural water transport resources provide significant advantages, with major projects like the Grand Canal and Pinglu Canal showcasing impressive results [4] - Water transport is highlighted for its strong capacity, low energy consumption, and cost advantages compared to land transport [4] - National strategic plans have opened up development space for canal engineering, with substantial funding support for related projects [4] Gaming Industry Support - Zhejiang Province has introduced measures to support the international expansion of gaming companies, including a tiered cultivation plan for digital cultural enterprises [6][7] - The initiative encourages the development of high-quality games and the creation of independent cultural IPs, aiming to enhance the international competitiveness of local gaming firms [6][7] Bio-Manufacturing Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission have announced plans to cultivate pilot platforms for bio-manufacturing [8] - The goal is to establish over 20 pilot platforms by 2027, serving more than 200 enterprises and incubating over 400 products [8] New Energy Vehicle Sales Growth - In May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.27 million and 1.307 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 35% and 36.9% [9] - New energy vehicles accounted for 48.7% of total new car sales in May, with cumulative production and sales from January to May showing growth rates of 45.2% and 44% [9] Automotive Certification Initiatives - The National Market Supervision Administration has initiated a pilot program for mandatory product certification in the automotive sector to enhance quality infrastructure for vehicle exports [10]

金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 6 月 12 日 期指：靴子落地，或转震荡整理走势 | maolei@gtht.com | | --- | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | 毛磊 | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 3894.63 | ↑0.75 | | 2572.2 | | | | | | IF2506 | 3878.8 | ↑0.89 | -15.83 | 803.8 | 69002 | ↑4507 | 115340 | ↑3257 | | IF2507 | 3839.4 | ↑0.87 | -55.23 | 120 | 10407 | ↑4340 | 22692 | ↑3889 | | IF2509 | 3812.2 | ↑0.94 | -82.43 | 292.3 | 25538 | ↑3425 | 88500 | ↑3143 | | IF2 ...

盘前要闻 1、中东局势一夜升级!美国下令撤离部分中东人员，原油狂飙5% 类型：宏观 情绪影响：负面 伊朗威胁说如果核计划谈判失败将袭击美国基地，北京时间今日凌晨，美国命令一些工作人员离开驻巴 格达大使馆，并允许军人家属离开中东。隔夜WTI原油期货大涨5.2%，最终收于68美元/桶上方，创下 去年10月份以来的最大涨幅。 2、黄仁勋称量子计算正在接近拐点，英伟达将与量子计算公司合作 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 英伟达CEO黄仁勋最新演讲提到，量子计算正在接近一个拐点。与摩尔定律类似，量子计算机可处理的 逻辑量子比特数量将沿着每5年增加10倍、每10年增加100倍的路径演进。英伟达会以多种方式与世界各 地的量子计算公司合作。 3、美国5月CPI数据全线低于预期，特朗普：美联储应该降息100基点 类型：宏观 情绪影响：中性 美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，剔除食品和能源成本的核心CPI同比上涨2.8%，保持在2021年3月以 来的最低水平，低于预期的2.9%。交易员加大对美联储降息的押注，基本预计今年将降息两次。特朗 普呼吁美联储将利率下调100基点。 4、何立峰：中美在经贸领域合则两利、斗则俱伤，贸易战没有赢家 投 ...

Group 1: US-China Trade Negotiations - The US and China have reached a preliminary framework for trade negotiations, indicating a mutual desire for a stable foreign trade environment to support domestic economic development [1][2] - The US is considering lifting recent restrictions on various sectors, contingent on China easing its export restrictions on rare earths [1] Group 2: Gaming Industry Support - Zhejiang province has introduced measures to support the international expansion of the gaming industry, focusing on nurturing market players and promoting high-quality 3A game projects [3] - Local governments are increasingly implementing policies to enhance the global influence of gaming brands, reflecting a growing emphasis on the international market [3] Group 3: Automotive Industry Payment Terms - Several Chinese automotive companies, including BYD and Xiaomi, have committed to keeping payment terms within 60 days in response to new regulations aimed at improving the payment environment for small and medium enterprises [5][6] - The effectiveness of this regulation remains to be seen, especially as many new energy vehicle companies face financial pressures and may struggle to meet these terms [5][6] Group 4: Smartphone Market Trends - A UBS survey indicates that the expected replacement cycle for smartphones has extended from 29.7 months to 31.1 months, reflecting a trend towards longer device usage [7] - The decline in purchase intent for smartphones, particularly in the US market, suggests a saturation in the market with little innovation in hardware [7][8] Group 5: Cloud Services Market - According to IDC, ByteDance's Volcano Engine holds a dominant 46.4% market share in China's public cloud large model service market, significantly outpacing competitors like Baidu and Alibaba [9][10] - The competitive landscape has shifted as traditional cloud service providers face new demands from AI large models, allowing Volcano Engine to leverage its internal technology for market advantage [9][10] Group 6: Tencent Music Acquisition - Tencent Music has announced a $1.26 billion cash acquisition of Ximalaya, aiming to enhance its presence in the long audio content market [11][12] - The merger is expected to combine Tencent's music streaming capabilities with Ximalaya's strengths in audiobooks, potentially revitalizing Ximalaya's market position amid increasing competition [11][12] Group 7: Tesla's Autonomous Driving Developments - Tesla plans to deliver its first fully autonomous vehicle in Texas, marking a significant step in its autonomous driving technology, although it currently remains at Level 2 automation [13][14] - The introduction of Robotaxi services is also on the horizon, which could enhance Tesla's market confidence and performance [13][14] Group 8: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.52% and trading volume decreasing to 1.26 trillion yuan [15] - Various sectors, including rare earths and automotive parts, showed strong performance, while others like nuclear power and biopharmaceuticals faced declines [15][16]

•中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行 中美就落实两国元首通话共识及日内瓦会谈共识达成框架 •外交部：中方将对53个非洲建交国实施100%税目产品零关税 •中东紧张局势急剧升温 美官员称驻中东美军家属可自愿撤离 美布两油大涨 •当地时间6月9日至10日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特及商务部长卢特尼克、贸易代表格里尔在英国伦 敦举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。双方进行了坦诚、深入的对话，就各自关心的经贸议题深入交换意见，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内 瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。（新华社） •6月11日，中非合作论坛成果落实协调人部长级会议在湖南长沙举行。外交部发言人林剑表示，中方将落实对53个非洲建交国实施100%税目产品零关税举 措，同时为非洲最不发达国家对华出口提供更多便利。去年北京峰会以来，中方新增对非投资超133亿元人民币，对非资金支持总额超1500亿元人民币。今 年前5个月，中国对非进出口达9630亿元，同比增长12.4%，创历史同期新高。（新华社） •1至5月份，汽车产销量分别完成1282.6万辆和 ...

点击按钮▲立即预约 中美贸易磋商原则上达成框架 伦敦时间6月10日，商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢在伦敦谈到中美经贸磋商机制首次会议时表示，中美双方进行了专业、理性、深 入、坦诚的沟通。双方原则上就落实两国元首6月5日通话共识以及日内瓦会谈共识达成了框架。美国商务部长卢特尼克表示："谈得很顺利，我 们花了很多时间一起交流。" 据悉，在这轮磋商中，美方考虑取消近期出台的一系列限制措施，涉及芯片设计软件、喷气发动机零件、乙烷以及核材料等领域。这些措施大多 是在过去几周中美关系再度紧张升级时出台的，条件是中国放宽对稀土出口的限制。（综合新华社） ｜点评｜ 中美贸易谈判达成初步框架，是双方都乐于见到的结果。中美两国已经用无数次事实证明，两国关系合则两利，斗则两伤。美国经济 增速放缓，劳动力市场降温；中国内需修复缓慢，行业复苏不均衡。中美两国现在都需要一个稳定的外贸环境，稳固国内经济发展局面，而非 给市场带来更多不确定性。 从中美两国历次谈判经验来看，最终两国需要进行多轮谈判，才能恢复到较为常态化的贸易环境中，期间甚至可能发生多次谈判停摆或重启事 件。无论如何，两国贸易代表坐在一张谈判桌上，坦诚地进行交流，远比加 ...

Group 1 - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism took place in London, with both sides achieving a principled consensus on addressing economic concerns and enhancing cooperation [2][3] - China emphasized the mutual benefits of the economic relationship, stating that trade wars yield no winners and expressing a willingness to engage in dialogue to resolve differences [2] - The US side reported positive outcomes from the meeting, aiming to stabilize bilateral economic relations and implement the consensus reached [3] Group 2 - The China Automobile Industry Association reported that from January to May, automobile production and sales reached 12.826 million and 12.748 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 12.7% and 10.9% [4] - New energy vehicle production and sales during the same period were 5.699 million and 5.608 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 45.2% and 44%, with new energy vehicles accounting for 44% of total new car sales [4] Group 3 - The Zhejiang Provincial Department of Commerce and 17 other departments issued measures to support the overseas expansion of the gaming industry, including increased financial support [5] - Companies such as Silver Wheel Co. plan to establish joint ventures to enter the intelligent robot parts market, while Tian Ci Materials intends to build an integrated production base for electrolytes and raw materials in Morocco [7]

截至6月11日收盘，手机游戏概念上涨2.20%，位居概念板块涨幅第6，板块内，46股上涨，电魂网络涨 停，星辉娱乐、富春股份、ST赛为等涨幅居前，分别上涨13.43%、9.89%、7.30%。跌幅居前的有ST华 闻、万达电影、文投控股等，分别下跌1.15%、0.94%、0.80%。 | | ST中青 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300052 | 宝 | 1.21 | 3.41 | 422.33 | 4.75 | | 300518 | 新迅达 | 1.75 | 3.04 | 345.62 | 4.25 | | 600373 | 中文传 | 0.37 | 0.82 | 343.12 | 2.88 | | | 媒 | | | | | | 603444 | 吉比特 | 3.98 | 2.72 | 299.50 | 0.57 | | 300710 | 万隆光 | -0.29 | 2.99 | 191.35 | 3.89 | | | 电 | | | | | | 688696 | 极米科 | 0.06 | 0.50 | 170.69 | 4.01 | ...

■ 为了缓解"内卷式"竞争带来的不良影响，车企希望通过缩短账期，确保供应商的资金高效周转，从 而提升产业链的协同效率与稳定性。 ■ 政策对汽车行业"价格战"和"内卷式"竞争的干预，可能为那些注重 技术创新 和 产业链协同 的企业 提供更多发展机会。 3、 《 中汽协：前5月中国品牌乘用车共销售756.2万辆，同比增26.3%》摘 要 ■ 根据 中国汽车工业协会 的最新数据显示，2025年1-5月，中国乘用车市场延续良好势头， 销售总 量达1099.6万辆 ，同比增长 12.6% 。 ■ 新能源乘用车继续表现强劲，1-5月销量达 157万辆 ，同比增长 24.5% ，其中A级和B级车型销量表 现尤为突出。 ■ 相比之下，传统燃油车市场销量出现下降，尤其在 A级、B级、C级 车型中，销量表现较为疲弱， 整体同比下降 10.1% 。 ■ 在1-5月的销量排名中， 比亚迪 、 吉利汽车 、 上汽通用五菱 等国产品牌销量增长显著，而传统外 资品牌如 法系 、 韩系 品牌则表现不佳，销量普遍下降。 4、 《 泡泡玛特证明了，情绪价值到底多值钱》 摘 要 ■ 泡泡玛特股价的急剧上涨，尤其是在2024年初至今，股价涨幅超过1 ...

Market Performance - On June 11, Hong Kong's three major stock indices all rose, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.84% to 24,366.94 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index up 1.09% to 5,451.20 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 1.12% to 8,865.72 points. The total market turnover was HKD 235.2 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 1.376 billion [2]. Company Highlights - China Hongqiao rose 4.61%, China Life increased by 4.58%, and BYD gained 3.83%, leading the blue-chip stocks. The expectation of asset restructuring for China Hongqiao has driven a revaluation [4]. - Bubble Mart reached a historical high, closing at HKD 269.80 with a gain of 4.25%. According to a report from CICC (Hong Kong), the company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 7 billion by 2025, exceeding market expectations by approximately 15% due to underestimated overseas expansion [12]. Industry Trends - The Hang Seng Industry Index showed most sectors rising, with the materials sector up 2.66%, energy sector up 1.43%, and financial sector up 1.17%. Conversely, the consumer staples sector fell by 0.92%, healthcare sector down 0.65%, and utilities sector down 0.21% [6]. - The Wind concept sectors mostly rose, with the Foxconn Index up 5.19%, new materials up 4.3%, and Chinese brokerage firms up 4.14%. The domestic retail index led the declines, down 3.41% [8]. Investment Sentiment - According to Morgan Stanley's latest report, international investors are seeking to diversify their portfolios, showing a stronger willingness to allocate to Chinese stocks due to concerns about missing out on China's technological advancements. The report indicates that there is significant room for increased investment as international exposure to China remains relatively low [10]. - CITIC Securities expressed optimism about the media and gaming sectors, highlighting that these sectors are among the best emerging consumer segments, with valuations still considered low. The firm believes that the cultural export initiatives supported by policy will further enhance growth in these sectors [20].