Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent asserts that the U.S. will "never default" on its debt, countering concerns raised by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon about a potential collapse in the bond market [1] - Bessent's confidence is juxtaposed with warnings from the Congressional Budget Office, which indicated that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to exceed levels not seen since the 1940s in the coming years [1] - Dimon has expressed ongoing concerns regarding excessive government spending and the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies, which he believes have created a "ticking time bomb" for the bond market [3] Group 2 - Trump's proposed "Big Beautiful Plan" is projected to increase the federal deficit significantly, with estimates suggesting an addition of approximately $3 trillion to the debt over the next decade [2] - Despite concerns about rising deficits, the Trump administration claims that the plan will not increase the deficit, citing potential economic growth and increased revenue from new tariffs [2] - Dimon warns that if the U.S. enters a recession, the current deficit of about $2 trillion, which is approximately 7% of GDP, could rise to 10% [3]

Group 1 - The recent performance of Hong Kong and A-shares has been lackluster, with market movements heavily influenced by U.S. events, particularly Trump's tariff actions [1] - Trump's recent threats to impose tariffs on the EU and increase steel tariffs to 50% have created volatility in the markets, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal policy [1][2] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield remains above 5%, raising concerns about the stability of U.S. debt and its implications for the broader financial market [1][2] Group 2 - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong is gaining attention, characterized by a diverse range of companies from bubble tea to beauty products, indicating a broad interpretation of consumer spending [5][6] - Major internet companies in China, such as Meituan and Xiaomi, reported strong earnings, with Meituan exceeding revenue and profit expectations despite ongoing competition with JD.com [6] - PDD's financial performance has been mixed, with revenue growth but a significant drop in net profit, attributed to government subsidies and market conditions, leading to volatility in its stock price [6] Group 3 - The IPO market in Hong Kong has shown a positive trend, with a low first-day loss rate of 28.6% for new listings, the lowest since 2017 [7] - New stock performance varies significantly, with some companies like Ningde Times and Guanshi Shuduan showing substantial first-day gains, while others like Paige Biopharma experienced significant losses [8] - The strategy for participating in new stock offerings emphasizes quick exits within three days, suggesting a focus on short-term gains rather than long-term holdings [8][9]

Group 1 - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, marking the loss of the last "AAA" rating among major international rating agencies, primarily due to the increasing scale of U.S. government debt and its interest payment ratio [1] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, predicts that U.S. debt could reach $50 trillion by 2035, suggesting that Moody's has underestimated the risks associated with U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - Goldman Sachs' president John Waldron indicates that the focus in the bond market is shifting from tariff disputes to the rising U.S. government debt, which is pushing up long-term interest rates, particularly the 30-year Treasury yield, to its highest level in nearly two decades [1] Group 2 - Concerns among foreign investors regarding U.S. Treasury bonds are rising due to high inflation and a weakening dollar, which could diminish the actual value of their holdings [2] - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes highlighted that the volatility in the U.S. bond market poses risks to financial stability, with potential long-term impacts on the U.S. economy if the dollar's safe-haven status changes [2] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $34 trillion, with the government caught in a vicious cycle of fiscal deficits, borrowing, and high-interest repayments [2] Group 3 - The pressure from maturing U.S. debt is described as "rolling," with a significant increase in the monthly maturity scale since the Fed's interest rate hikes began in 2022 [3] - The U.S. national debt reached its statutory limit at the beginning of the year, restricting new debt issuance, which could lead to increased maturity pressure if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt ceiling before August [3] - The U.S. debt crisis reflects broader concerns about government credit and is fundamentally a monetary crisis, emphasizing the need for balance in domestic inflation control and external dollar confidence [3]

Group 1 - The core argument highlights the significant risks associated with U.S. Treasury bonds as the 30-year yield surpasses 5%, leading to a decline in confidence in U.S. debt securities [2][5] - Major Japanese insurance companies reported a total floating loss of approximately $60 billion in domestic bond holdings due to rising interest rates, indicating the financial strain on institutions heavily invested in U.S. Treasuries [2][5] - The report suggests that the U.S. debt market is approaching a critical point, with a potential collapse predicted for 2025, supported by alarming statistics such as a debt-to-GDP ratio of 123% and a single-day stock market loss of 5% [5] Group 2 - International investment firms are actively seeking safe-haven assets to mitigate losses from U.S. dollar and Treasury volatility, with Goldman Sachs identifying China as a secure refuge [7] - The recent threat of tariffs by Trump has led to a significant drop in the U.S. dollar index, reflecting a broader capital flight from U.S. debt markets [10] - There has been a dramatic increase in gold deliveries on the New York exchange, with May 2023 showing a staggering 700% rise compared to the same month in the previous year, indicating a shift towards gold as a protective asset [10][11] Group 3 - China's central bank is strategically increasing its gold reserves to create a buffer against U.S. debt challenges, holding 73.77 million ounces of gold [12] - The Chinese government aims to maintain a stable yuan exchange rate to support its manufacturing sector, recognizing the importance of currency stability for economic health [14][16] - International investment firms have set a target exchange rate of around 7 for the yuan, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook on China's economic prospects [16]

近年来，稳定币成为了热议话题，许多人认为它有可能拯救美元霸权，甚至帮助美国进入美元霸权3.0版本，从而继续在全球范围内收割利益。其背后，主 要与两条信息密切相关。 首先，花旗银行的分析指出，全球目前99%的稳定币都与美元挂钩，且这些稳定币已经持有超过1200亿美元的美国国债，其中泰达公司（稳定币发行商）已 经成为全球第七大美债买家。其次，特朗普团队正在积极推动稳定币立法，美国财长贝森特也公开表示，稳定币短期内能够创造2万亿美元的美债需求。 那么，稳定币究竟是什么？它真能拯救美元霸权吗？ 稳定币本质上属于加密货币的一种，与比特币、以太币等其他虚拟货币类似，但最大的不同在于，后者的价格波动极大，类似股票。例如，比特币在今年的 5个月内，价格最低跌至7.4万美元，最高接近12万美元，波动幅度超过50%。以太币的波动则更为剧烈，价格从1300美元涨到4100美元，起伏不定。 与此不同，稳定币则与美元保持1:1的锚定关系。其发行机制严格规定，每持有1美元，才能发行1个稳定币。稳定币的存在，简化了加密货币交易，不再需 要专门的结算公司。例如，今年4月，某炒币者用7.4万美元购买泰达公司（USDT）的稳定币，得到了7.4万 ...

Group 1: U.S. Debt Situation - The U.S. government faces a potential debt default as $6.6 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds are set to mature by June 2025, with a significant portion of short-term debt due in June 2023 estimated at around $2.3 trillion [1] - The interest on U.S. Treasury bonds has increased significantly, with new debt interest rates rising to 4.5% to 5%, contrasting sharply with previous near-zero rates, leading to a projected $1 trillion in interest payments for the fiscal year [3] - The proportion of short-term debt has exceeded 20%, raising concerns about liquidity crises if the market refuses to absorb new debt [3] Group 2: Political Dynamics - The Trump administration is attempting to shift blame for increasing deficits onto external factors, such as China's potential sale of U.S. debt and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, ahead of the September debt ceiling negotiations [3] - Tensions between the U.S. and South Africa have been highlighted, with Trump's decision to attend the G20 summit in Johannesburg seen as a significant shift in U.S. diplomatic posture [5] - Trump's primary objective for attending the G20 summit appears to be to create an opportunity for a face-to-face meeting with Chinese leaders, as he has not yet engaged with them since taking office [8]

今日周六（5月31日）因国际端午节休市。黄金期货目前交投于768.60元附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂 报771.80元/克，上涨0.98%，最高触及776.16元/克，最低下探768.60元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏 向看涨走势。 债券市场上，2年期美债收益率微调0.2个基点，报3.937%；10年期美债收益率几乎持平，微降0.4个基 点至4.416%；而30年期美债收益率则小幅上扬0.6个基点，达到4.929%，反映出市场对长期经济前景的 复杂情绪与预期。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 黄金期货今日上方阻力位为786.74-790.00，下方支撑位为760.00-780.00。 【要闻速递】 最新数据揭示，美联储密切关注的个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）在当月仅温和上升0.1%，年度通胀率 则定格于2.1%，与道琼斯此前的预测相吻合，但较预估年通胀率低了0.1个百分点。尤为值得注意的 是，剔除食品和能源波动后的核心PCE物价指数，其月增长率和年增长率分别稳定在0.1%和2.5%，略低 于市场先前预期的0.1%和2.6%，显示出通胀压力的进一步缓和。 然而，经济学家们对于关税可能触发的新一轮通胀风险表示忧虑，尽管 ...

Group 1 - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warns of impending "cracks" in the bond market, suggesting that financial regulators may panic when it occurs [1] - Dimon criticizes the current financial regulatory framework, highlighting "deep flaws" in existing rules, especially after the bond market's turmoil in April [1] - Proposed adjustments to the supplementary leverage ratio could stabilize the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market, according to Dimon [1] Group 2 - As of Friday, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries rose to 4.418% and 4.931%, respectively, marking a 25 basis point increase in May, the largest monthly rise this year [2] - Not all industry experts share Dimon's concerns; Tom di Galoma from Mischler Financial Group believes the bond market has already "broken" since April but notes recent successful auctions indicate a return to calm [2] - Treasury Secretary Yellen is working to lower the 10-year Treasury yield to stimulate the housing market and ease credit tightening, collaborating with regulators on potential reforms [2] Group 3 - Risks persist in the market, including proposed large-scale tax and spending bills by Republicans that could increase federal deficits and bond issuance, raising interest rates [3] - Uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies and legal issues may decrease foreign investment interest in U.S. assets [3] - Despite warnings, Dimon remains optimistic about overcoming challenges, with JPMorgan's stock down 0.1% but up 10.1% year-to-date [3]

据新华社消息，当地时间5月29日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在白宫会见联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威 尔，这是特朗普重返白宫以来首次与鲍威尔面对面会晤。白宫称特朗普敦促美联储降息，美联储则称鲍 威尔坚持独立制定货币政策。 这使得近期处于跌势的美国国债市场稍有缓和。白宫发言人表示"会上特朗普认为鲍威尔未能下调利率 是一个错误，此举使美国在经济上处于劣势"。尽管美联储的官方申明中并未透露降息的任何信息，但 市场打开了美联储降息的想象空间，毕竟这是特朗普总统第一次在正式场合敦促美联储降息。截至5月 29日，美国10年期、30年期国债收益率分别录得4.43%和4.92%，较5月21日的高点分别下降15和16基 点，美债市场情绪缓和。 未来美债市场好转的因素主要有：一是寄希望于美联储降息，或者QE规模加大长端国债的购买；二是 美国放松对机构购买美国国债的监管和限制；三是美国财政收支状况大幅改善。 从美联储资产负债表来看，截至5月28日，美联储持有的美国国债为42137亿美元，较4月30日 （42158.13亿美元）有所减少。而5月28日美联储持有的期限大于10年的美国国债总规模15669.6亿美 元，较4月30日增加了约9 ...

Group 1 - The ongoing review of Trump's tariff policy by the courts is causing market volatility, indicating a turbulent summer for Wall Street [1] - The comprehensive tariff policy announced on April 2 has significantly impacted the technology sector, although major stock indices have rebounded to near historical highs by the end of May [1] - The aggressive tariff policy has shaken the confidence of foreign investors holding trillions in U.S. Treasury bonds, leading to labor shortages in agriculture and construction due to immigration restrictions and government spending cuts [1] Group 2 - Despite companies stockpiling goods in the first quarter to cope with tariffs, weak shipping data in May shows continued caution in the business community [2] - The international trade court ruled multiple tariffs illegal, but the execution of this ruling has been temporarily stayed, leaving industries like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors still facing new tariff threats [2] - With the debt ceiling crisis approaching in August and inflation uncertainties, the Federal Reserve is maintaining a wait-and-see approach, suggesting that investors should seize opportunities in high-yielding Treasury bonds before rates decline [2]