从日线图表现来看，美元指数当前处于明显的下行通道中，MA55均线(103.6526)明显向下倾斜，表明 中期下行趋势仍占主导。短期内，MA14均线(99.8024)和MA200(104.5273)形成的价格带为价格提供了 关键的运行区间。 周三（4月30日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报99.30，涨幅0.08%，开盘价为99.22。美国消费者长期通 胀预期连续第二个月大幅上升，这一趋势不太可能是随机异常或测量误差。 密歇根大学的调查结果显示，美国消费者通胀预期显著上升，与2021/22年疫情后通胀期间的温和上升 形成鲜明对比。德意志商业银行外汇和大宗商品研究主管UlrichLeuchtmann指出，通胀预期是通胀的主 要驱动因素之一。如果通胀预期持续上升，美联储将难以忽视关税引发的通胀冲击。当长期通胀预期较 高时，如果美联储不采取行动，通胀可能会进一步上升。Leuchtmann强调，美联储越晚干预，后续采取 措施的痛苦程度可能越高。上周，美联储理事ChristopherWaller表示，如果美国关税导致失业率上升 （他认为是在7月之后），美联储应降低关键利率。然而，如果通胀预期同时上升，这一决策将变得更 加复杂 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index fell, closing down 0.69% at 98.93, while US Treasury yields continued to decline, with the 10-year yield at 4.211%, a three-week low [1] - Spot gold reversed its earlier decline, rising 0.75% to close at $3344.08 per ounce, supported by buying interest after a drop of 1.8% [1] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing central bank purchases, expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical risks [1] Group 2 - WTI crude oil futures fell 2.03% to $61.89 per barrel, marking a near two-week low, amid uncertainties regarding OPEC+ production plans and concerns over the organization's unity [3] - Oil prices are expected to remain in a narrow trading range due to the lack of significant positive or negative news, with support confirmed around the $55 level and resistance near $65 [5] - The market sentiment indicates a preference for a cautious approach in trading, focusing on trend analysis and strategic entry points rather than emotional trading [5]

黄金周三（4月30日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3315.16美元/盎司附近。周二金价下 跌0.8%，收报3317.06美元/盎司，特朗普政府突然软化汽车关税立场，导致避险资产黄金的价格承压， 而美元则趁机反弹。黄金最近处于一个区间震荡中，因为市场现在在等待首个贸易协议的细节，预计将 在本周或下周公布。上周黄金达到一个转折点，特朗普发表一些非常积极的评论，同时滞涨风险继续被 排除，黄金也持续下行。滞涨定价曾推动黄金价格上涨，而随着市场开始排除这种风险，出现修正是正 常的，尤其是考虑到"做多黄金"已经成为最拥挤的交易之一。本交易日将迎来美国一季度GDP数据和3 月份PCE数据，这场由政策转向引发的资产价格大洗牌，正将市场焦点重新拉回美联储政策走向与经济 基本面。 特朗普周二签署行政令，通过对汽车制造商提供税收抵免等方式减轻关税冲击。在这场政策、数据与市 场预期的三重博弈中，黄金正站在十字路口。短期来看，风险偏好回升压制金价；但若本周数据坐实经 济衰退风险，美联储可能被迫转向，届时黄金或将迎来新一轮爆发。聪明的投资者正在密切关注周三 PCE、一季度GDP数据与周五非农这两大关键数据，它们很可能成为决定 ...

Group 1 - The market narrative is expected to oscillate between recession and stagflation until trade issues are resolved, the Federal Reserve begins to ease policies, or inflationary pressures fail to build [1] - Investors are increasingly concerned about the economic growth outlook, leading to expectations of declining yields [1] - BMO Capital Markets analyst Ian Lyngen expresses concerns about further weakening economic data in the short term [1] Group 2 - HSBC strategists, including Nicole Inui, highlight the need for clarity on economic conditions to stabilize market expectations [1]

周二(4月29日)欧市盘中，国际黄金继续维持区间震荡，截至发稿报3324.49美元/盎司，跌幅0.58%，今 日金价开盘于3341.30美元/盎司，最高上探3348.36美元/盎司，最低触及3304.69美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 尽管市场风险偏好短暂回升，市场仍保持高度关注美联储政策路径。市场普遍预期美联储将在6月恢复 降息周期，全年或将实施三次降息。 "在当前不确定性环境下，黄金仍是应对利率和地缘双重风险的核心配置。"OANDA分析师Craig Erlam 指出。 此外，俄罗斯单方面宣布将在5月8日实施72小时停火，但乌克兰方面并未回应，地缘局势缓和，为黄金 提供潜在支撑。 巴克莱策略师在一份报告中说，该行仍然建议投资者买入五年期美国国债，为美联储降低利率做准备。 巴克莱建议投资者在4月中旬重新建立五年期美国国债的多头头寸，而在4月2日关税公告公布后，鉴于 价格重新定价和更高的不确定性，投资者已转为中性。 【黄金技术分析】 黄金周一下跌在3268.00之上受到支持，上涨在3353.00之下遇阻，意味着欧美短线下跌后有可能保持上 涨的走势。如果黄金今天下跌在3293.00之上企稳，后市上涨的目标将会指向33 ...

金十数据4月28日讯，荷兰国际银行利率策略师在一份报告中表示，美国总统特朗普最近对美联储政策 的质疑，对长期国债没有帮助。解除美联储主席鲍威尔的职务似乎不在讨论范围内，但特朗普批评美联 储降息步伐缓慢。此外，策略师们表示，当鲍威尔的任期于2026年5月结束时，特朗普将任命一位新主 席。美国国债在4月份经历了一个非常不稳定的阶段，尽管它们现在似乎正在企稳。据Tradeweb的数 据，10年期美国国债收益率下跌1个基点，至4.256%。LSEG数据显示，货币市场显示投资者完全消化 了美国7月降息的预期，6月也有可能降息。 荷兰国际银行：特朗普质疑美联储政策对美国国债无益 ...

Market Environment - The market environment is complex with significant volatility, making accurate predictions difficult, leading to a recommendation for reduced trading and increased observation [2] - The extreme market conditions from last week are expected to stabilize, returning to a more technical trading environment [2] Economic Indicators - This week is significant due to the non-farm payroll data, trade tariffs, geopolitical changes, and Federal Reserve policies, alongside unemployment claims data [2] Gold Market Analysis - The dollar has shown a slight rebound after forming a bottom, which is expected to support an increase in gold prices [3] - Despite a drop from 3500 to 3260, the long-term trend for gold remains bullish, with potential targets of 3420, 3500, and possibly breaking above 3500 [3] - Current gold trading is characterized by low-level fluctuations, with key resistance at 3370; a break above this level could lead to significant upward movement [4] Silver Market Analysis - The international silver market has shown a strong trend, with expectations of reaching around 34, while maintaining support at 32 [4] - Domestic silver is experiencing high-level fluctuations, with a focus on the 8400/8150 range for potential trading opportunities [5] Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market is currently in a weak range, with a trading range of 64.5 to 61.5; breaking this range could lead to a more definitive trend [5] - Fuel oil has also been in a consolidation phase, with potential for upward movement if it can establish a solid base [5]

黄金行情讲解中 黄金急转直下！市场炒作回归美联储政策？短线交易者应该回调布局还是谨慎等待？TTPS交易学长正 在直播分析中，点击马上观看！ 相关链接 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices experienced volatility this week, reaching a high of $3500 per ounce before retreating due to a stronger dollar and profit-taking [2][3][4] - Trump's comments regarding interest rates and tariffs influenced market sentiment, initially boosting gold prices but later leading to a correction as trade tensions eased [3][6] - The uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies contributed to fluctuations in gold prices, with mixed signals from Fed officials [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The recent price action suggests that gold is in a corrective phase after reaching the $3500 peak, with key support at $3260 and resistance at $3370/3371 [10][12][14] - If gold breaks above $3370/3371, it may indicate a continuation of the upward trend, while a drop below $3260 could signal a more significant downward movement [12][14] Group 3: Upcoming Events - The upcoming week will feature significant economic data releases, including non-farm payrolls, Q1 GDP, and PCE inflation data, which are expected to impact gold prices [9]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials, particularly Kashkari, emphasize the importance of making decisions based on data, highlighting the significance of independence in policy-making [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is focused on making the most reasonable decisions based on available data [1] - Kashkari's statement reflects the commitment of Federal Reserve policymakers to uphold their independence in decision-making [1]