需要看到的是，尽管金价已经从上个月创下的历史高位下挫近400美元，但近年迄今的涨幅仍超20%。 因此，在部分市场分析人士看来，金价或仍有进一步技术性修正的压力。 与此同时，美元指数隔夜再度反弹走高，也给金价带来压力。衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天 上涨0.03%，在汇市尾市再度站上101关口。 纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年6月黄金期价12日下跌73.8美元，收于每盎司3180.7美 元，跌幅为2.27%。盘中金价触及逾一个月的低点。 《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》传递出积极信号，中美互降关税落地，贸易局势暂时出现积极变化带 动全球股市反弹，并削弱了黄金的避险吸引力。 不过，在美国4月CPI意外低于预期的同时，市场仍将关注即将公布的4月PPI数据，以判断美联储货币政 策下一步动向。若PPI数据继续疲软，则可能再度强化对美联储尽早开启降息的预期，从而对金价构成 支撑。 此外，支撑金价上涨的长期逻辑依然没有改变。世界黄金协会的数据显示，4月，全球实物黄金ETF获 110亿美元增持，实现连续五个月流入。 新华财经北京5月15日电（吴郑思）避险需求进一步减退，黄金市场在前一日小幅修整后再度遭遇 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the gold market continues to experience a downward trend despite a weak US dollar and expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy [1][2] - The market is currently influenced by the lack of significant economic data and a retreat in safe-haven demand due to recent statements from Trump regarding tariff policies [1] - Geopolitical developments, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and potential diplomatic negotiations, are also affecting market sentiment [1] Group 2 - On Wednesday, the gold market showed a bearish trend, breaking below the key support level of $3200 per ounce, indicating strong downward momentum [2][4] - Technical indicators such as the MACD are showing expanding bearish momentum, while the RSI is approaching oversold territory, suggesting a potential for short-term technical corrections [2] - The suggested trading strategy is to sell on rebounds in the $3195-$3200 range, with a stop-loss at $3203 and targets set at $3180-$3160 [4]

Group 1: CPI Overview - The US CPI for April decreased slightly to 2.3% year-on-year, down from 2.4%, below Bloomberg's expectation of 2.4%[1] - Core CPI remained stable at 2.8%, matching Bloomberg's forecast[1] - CPI month-on-month increased by 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%[1] Group 2: Structural Analysis of CPI - Food prices fell from 0.4% to -0.1% month-on-month, reducing its contribution to CPI from 0.06 percentage points to -0.01[2] - Energy prices rose from -2.4% to 0.7%, contributing 0.04 percentage points to CPI, up from -0.15[2] - Core goods prices increased from -0.1% to 0.1%, contributing 0.01 percentage points to CPI, up from -0.02[3] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance - The inflation performance supports the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach, as the economy shows no signs of stagflation[4] - The Fed is unlikely to cut rates until there is clear evidence of deteriorating employment or consumer spending data[5] - Current market expectations suggest the first rate cut may occur in September, with a total of two cuts anticipated for the year[5]

操作策略： 1.黄金建议反弹3210-3200区域做空，止损在3218，短期看3185-3175，目标看3160-3150 现货黄金市场呈现震荡下行格局。尽管美元指数维持弱势运行，且市场对美联储货币政策转向的预期有所强化，但金价仍未能 延续周二的技术性反弹动能。日内市场缺乏重大经济数据指引，交易逻辑逐步转向特朗普近期关于关税政策的表态引发的避险 需求退潮，以及地缘政治局势的边际变化，例如俄乌冲突的外交谈判动向。以下从基本面与技术面维度，对黄金市场运行逻辑 进行深度剖析，并展望潜在趋势演变。 美国劳工部最新数据显示，4月消费者价格指数（CPI）环比增速录得0.2%，显著低于市场预测的0.3%。这份弱于预期的通胀报 告为黄金多头提供了关键支撑，市场对美联储9月启动降息周期进一步升温。翁老师提醒需警惕的是，尽管当前核心通胀压力呈 现缓和迹象，但未来数月关税政策调整的滞后效应可能通过进口成本传导推高输入性通胀，这一潜在风险正促使投资者将黄金 纳入资产组合以对抗通胀风险。本交易日市场焦点相对有限，但需持续关注美国国务卿卢比奥出席北约外长会议的表态，以及 美联储官员就货币政策路径的公开言论对市场预期的影响。 现货黄金市场 ...

| 11/11/2 | ■技能采 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月14日 | | 贵金属 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 贵金属震荡。 美国公布4月0P1年率为2.3%低于预期的2.4%, 为2021年2月以来新低,核心CP12.8%持平于预期 和前值,数据发布后市场反应温和,关税影响尚未体现。近期贸易和地缘谈判降低市场对于美国经济衰退的 押注，情绪切换令金价回吐前期风险溢价。国际金价处于调整过程中，关注3200美元/盎司处支撑有效性。 美国劳工部周二公布的数据显示,4月CPI环比仅上涨0.2%,低于预期的0.3%。市场普遍预期美联储将在9月 恢复降息。值得注意的是,尽管当前通胀压力不大,但未来几个月随着关税效应的显现,通胀可能再度抬 头。这种预期正在促使更多投资者将黄金作为对冲通胀的工具。 黄金面临三 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump expresses extreme dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, urging for interest rate cuts similar to the European Central Bank's approach, citing declining prices in the U.S. economy [1] Group 1: U.S. Economic Context - Trump's criticism of Fed Chair Powell, referring to him as "Mr. Too Late," suggests that the current stance on interest rates is detrimental to the U.S. economy [1] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is primarily influenced by economic data, including CPI, PCE, and unemployment rates, with rate cuts contingent on negative economic indicators [1] - Despite Trump's public discontent, Powell maintains that the Fed operates independently and is not swayed by political pressure [1] Group 2: Currency Market Dynamics - The dollar's fluctuations are significantly impacted by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with short-term factors driving a rebound in the dollar index, which fell to a low of 100.88 [1] - Non-U.S. currencies, particularly the British pound, have rebounded in response to the dollar's weakness, with the pound reaching a high of 1.3314 [1][3] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The UK 3-month bond yield is at 4.32%, higher than the 6-month yield of 4.24%, indicating a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England in the next 3-6 months [5] - The U.S. 3-month bond yield stands at 4.39%, also suggesting a likelihood of the Federal Reserve restarting rate cuts within a similar timeframe [6] - The bond market's yield trends are viewed as more reliable indicators compared to the Fed's current stance, implying a sustained bearish outlook for the dollar and continued benefits for the pound [6]

周二（5月13日）亚市盘中，现货黄金跌势不止，目前交投报3224.94美元/盎司，跌幅0.32%。主要源于中美双方宣布的阶段性关税减免协议，引发市场避险 情绪迅速降温，资金涌向风险资产。 延续周评思路，金价自3439这波下行还在延续，如果是跌破前一个低点，也就是3200后，跌幅还将扩大，将会往我们前期分析的2909目标运行，这个大家可 做关注。黄金本周低开低走，接近上一个低点附近止跌反弹，现在四小时级别上，自3500到3440构筑一个下跌趋势通道，金价目前下方支撑处于3164附近， 这是能够跌破3200前低的条件下，才能继续下推。 今日分析大趋势就不在强调了，还是保持看C浪的延续度。美盘将会迎来CPI数据，所以白盘主要还是分析短线方面，昨日金价单边走跌快接近一百点，在 前期低点止跌反弹。从小时级盘面上来看，昨天的反弹力度不大，在跳空下行后理应有反弹修复的动作，但是反弹没有越过3252用震荡代替反弹也是一种修 复的过程，所以今日的思路还是执行空单为主。 消息面解读：近期受到鲍威尔不急于降息的讲话和政策声明比预期要鹰派，中美消减关税协议达成，俄乌，印巴等地缘局势缓解等，打压金价再度连续回落 走低，展望后市前景，关 ...

——美国 2025 年 4 月 CPI 数据点评 东方金诚宏观研究 关税战传导尚不充分，后期通胀仍将反弹 研究发展部高级副总监 白雪 事件： 5 月 13 日周二，美国劳工统计局公布 4 月 CPI 数据显示：CPI 同比增长 2.3%，预期值 2.4%，前值 2.4%；CPI 环比增长 0.2%，预期 0.3%，前值-0.4%；核心 CPI 同比增长 2.8%，为 自 2021 年春季通胀爆发以来的最低增速；预期值 2.8%，前值 2.8%；核心 CPI 环比上涨 0.2%，预期值 0.3%，前值 0.1%。从结构来看，商品价格刚刚回到通胀区域（同比+0.1%）， 而服务业通胀继续下滑。然而，核心服务业环比有所上升。 解读如下： 4 月 CPI 同比在基数效应以及低油价影响下继续降温，关税传导初步体现但尚不充分。 能源价格同比继续下降，为通胀维持低位提供支撑。4 月能源价格同比增速为-3.7%，较 上月下行 0.4 个百分点。其中，汽油价格同比跌幅扩大至 11.8%（季调后环比下降 0.1%）。4 月受 OPEC+增产影响，叠加关税战引发全球需求降温，国际油价大幅走弱，布伦特原油现货 均价降至 67.9 美 ...

Group 1 - The USD/CHF exchange rate is currently stabilizing around 0.8390 after a sharp decline in April, indicating attempts to form a bottom despite ongoing downside risks indicated by technical indicators [1][3] - The weakness in USD/CHF is primarily driven by two factors: lower-than-expected US inflation data and improving global trade relations, which have pressured the dollar [3] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, down from 2.4% in March and below market expectations, reinforcing expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has expressed readiness to intervene in the currency market and may consider further interest rate cuts or even negative interest rates if inflation remains below target levels, indicating concerns over the Swiss franc's strength [3] - The USD/CHF exchange rate is attempting to find a supportive base above the 0.8350 level, which represents a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the last bearish wave [3] - The relative strength index (RSI) has entered an exaggerated oversold level, suggesting the formation of positive divergence, which may indicate a potential bullish correction trend [4]

展望后市，黄金面临三大关键变量：首先是中美贸易谈判的后续进展，虽然双方达成了90天的休战协 议，但全面关税政策依然存在；其次是美联储货币政策走向，通胀数据的温和表现可能为降息创造条 件；最后是全球地缘政治风险，特别是俄乌和谈与印巴冲突的演变。"降低关税的热度是件好事，与中 国的贸易重启可能意味着美联储可以一切照旧，在今年晚些时候逐步恢复降息。"本交易日经济数据相 对较少，美国国务卿卢比奥于5月14日至16日参加北约外长非正式会议，讨论北约的安全优先事项，包 括增加国防投资以及结束俄乌战争，此外，多位美联储官员将发表讲话，投资者需要予以关注。 美国4月消费者物价指数（CPI）数据发布，显示通胀压力有所缓和，为市场提供了一个复杂的信号。 整体CPI环比上涨0.2%，低于预期的0.3%，同比从2.4%回落至2.3%，同样不及2.4%的预期。美元指数周 二下跌0.8%，报100.98，与黄金的上涨形成鲜明对比。这种负相关关系再次验证了美元走势对金价的重 要影响。值得注意的是，尽管中美贸易紧张有所缓和，但美元仍比特朗普4月2日宣布加征关税时的水平 低近3%。主要券商如高盛、摩根大通等已调整了对美联储政策的预期，目前市场 ...