Core Insights - Johannesburg is set to host the G20 summit in November 2025, marking the first time an African nation will lead this event, enhancing its global city status [1] - The 2024/25 Integrated Development Plan (IDP) outlines 11 strategic priorities aimed at transforming Johannesburg into a world-class African city by 2040 [1][3] Strategic Priorities - **Fiscal Sustainability**: Ensuring long-term financial stability to provide essential services and fund key initiatives [3][5] - **Sustainable Energy Structure**: Diversifying energy sources and investing in renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies [6] - **Infrastructure Development and Renewal**: Addressing spatial imbalances and enhancing urban planning to improve living conditions [7] - **Sustainable Service Provision**: Aiming for high-quality services for all residents while addressing challenges in infrastructure and resource management [8] - **Good Governance**: Fostering effective administration, accountability, and citizen participation in governance [9] - **Job Creation**: Establishing urban development zones and public works programs to combat unemployment [11] - **Safety in the City**: Enhancing security measures to protect citizens from crime and natural disasters [12] - **Active Citizenship**: Encouraging citizen involvement in urban planning and decision-making processes [13] - **Economic Growth**: Focusing on targeted interventions to address unemployment, poverty, and inequality [14] - **Green Economy**: Implementing environmental policies to balance development needs with ecological preservation [15] - **Smart City Initiatives**: Utilizing technology to improve urban services, governance, and overall city resilience [16][17] Recommendations for Chinese Cities - Strengthening stakeholder participation in urban planning processes to enhance collaborative efforts [18] - Developing international relations planning to boost regional and global leadership roles [19] - Increasing cooperation with global southern cities in development planning to foster sustainable urban growth [21][22]

M&G Investments政府债券和宏观固定收益投资经理Robert Burrows表示，市场再度沉浸在"希望"之中。 尽管劳动力市场依旧强劲，通胀持续黏性，经济也未见明显疲软，但市场对降息的押注却卷土重来。美 联储可能仍在强调"高利率维持更久"，但投资者却似乎不以为然。 为什么在数据指向不同方向时，市场仍如此确信降息即将到来？Burrows表示，从基础数据来看，美国 经济仍在"反重力"运行： 尽管关税已大幅下调，但净有效关税已从约2%增至12%，其影响尚未完全显现。 然而，期货市场仍在推测到2026年底可能降息150个基点。有的投资者可能会因此认为衰退迫在眉睫， 但数据根本不支持这一点。目前没有明确且紧迫的危险需要立即放松货币政策。似乎市场中正在出现一 种不对称现象。 需要指出的是，关税这一巨大变化的影响将同时作用于未来的通胀和经济增长，使情况更加复杂，也让 美联储的工作更具挑战性。 上，一些有希望的候选人已经在"擦亮"他们的简历，并呼吁降息，尽管数据并不支持，这无疑提 升了他们在特朗普眼中的地位。 尽管美联储在理论上保持独立，但经济现实正将其逼入困境。当通胀是"罪魁祸首"时，加息在政治上是 可行的，但 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/10 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/07/03 110 1459 81550 24103 -1000.59 26.46 30.0 49.0 87.61 94325 31900 2025/07/04 105 1223 84589 22307 -974.44 138.45 30.0 52.0 95.35 95275 33950 2025/07/07 100 1001 84589 21682 -1002.36 174.64 29.0 63.0 79.80 97400 36875 2025/07/08 80 1048 84589 19109 -844.96 44.77 29.0 63.0 51.31 102500 37100 2025/07/09 60 502 84589 21336 -437.33 412.81 40.0 65.0 22.37 107125 38250 变化 -20 -546 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The World Gold Council analysts believe that gold prices will benefit from the soaring U.S. deficit and increasing fiscal instability, even in the absence of short-term crises [2] Group 1: Economic and Fiscal Factors - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill is expected to add $3.4 trillion in debt over the next decade unless the Trump administration meets its growth forecasts, raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion [2] - Political tensions, particularly Elon Musk's threat to form the "American Party," are contributing to accumulating fiscal and political risks [2] - Global capital is being reallocated due to these uncertainties, with a weakening dollar driving up gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields [2][5] Group 2: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe haven due to rising fiscal concerns, despite the traditional view that rising interest rates hinder gold prices [2][7] - Since 2022, other factors have rebalanced the inverse correlation between interest rates and gold prices, with gold prices rising even when real interest rates exceed 2% [2] - Central bank purchases, particularly from emerging market central banks, have become a significant factor in the strengthening of gold prices [2] Group 3: Long-term Implications - The long-standing fiscal issues have been a crucial support for the gold market, especially as the gap between U.S. Treasury yields and fixed-rate swaps widens, indicating increased market sensitivity to U.S. fiscal problems [5] - Although the World Gold Council does not foresee a full-blown fiscal crisis in the U.S., a series of smaller crises could arise due to debt ceiling issues or defaults, increasing market instability and demand for gold as a safe haven [5][6] - Analysts warn that if leaders appear to weaken their commitment to long-term fiscal discipline, the bond market's reaction could be swift and severe [6]

Group 1: Legislative Overview - The "Great Beauty Act" was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives with a narrow margin of 218 votes in favor and 214 against, and was signed into law by Trump on July 4, 2025[6] - The act is expected to increase the deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion over the next ten years, with tax cuts of about $4.5 trillion and spending cuts of around $1.4 trillion[12][13] Group 2: Market Impact - The market impact of the "Great Beauty Act" is expected to be limited in the short term, as the bond market has already priced in the information over the past two months[6] - The upcoming debt issuance is likely to be managed through short-term bonds, which will not significantly affect long-term bond supply and demand[6][18] Group 3: Economic Projections - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) predict that the deficit rate will rise to between 6.4% and 7.1% over the next five fiscal years due to the act[29][28] - Neutral institutions expect the act to contribute an additional economic growth of between -0.1% and 1.1% over the next ten years, indicating a very mild upward impact on the economy[22][23] Group 4: Long-term Implications - The act is likely to force the market to reassess the "new normal" of the U.S. fiscal cycle, leading to a higher central pricing for long-term U.S. Treasury yields[27] - The current 10-year Treasury yield is estimated to be around 4.1%, which is above its fair value, suggesting that the yield may continue to rise in the short term[38][41]

光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 07 月 10 日） 光大期货金融期货日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场震荡收跌，Wind 全 A 下跌 0.18%，成交额 1.53 万亿元。中 | | | | 证 1000 指数下跌 0.27%，中证 500 指数下跌 0.41%，沪深 300 指数下跌 | | | | 0.18%，上证 50 指数下跌 0.26%。传媒板块领涨，有色金属回调，板块轮动 | | | | 继续。近期中央财经委召开第六次会议，强调："纵深推进全国统一大市场建 | | | | 设，基本要求是"五统一、一开放"。市场对于反内卷背景下企业盈利回升和 | | | | 通胀企稳的预期颇高，但与 2016 年供给侧改个不同的是，本轮"反内卷"政 | | | | 2016 策并未配套类似于 年的增量财政政策，未来对相关题材的影响还需参 | | | 股指 | 考中央财政增量政策的转导方式和规模。海外方面，"非农"强劲背景下美联 | 震荡 | | | 储降息预期稍缓，国内小盘指数受到的提振明显减弱，未来需继续关注美国 | | ...

日本超长期国债收益率为何再起？ 报告要点： 专题报告 2025-07-10 7 月上旬，日本超长期国债收益率再起。7 月 8 日，日本 30 年期国债收益率一度上升 12.5 个 基点，达到 3.09%的阶段性高位；40 年期国债收益率亦攀升至 3.36%。为何日债收益率显著上 行？首先，本轮收益率上行的核心在于市场对日本财政前景的重新评估，即将于 7 月 20 日举 行的日本参议院选举成为市场关注焦点。当前执政联盟面临多数席位流失的风险，在野党的政 策主张则更偏向于财政扩张。其次，日本长债收益率的上行还是货币政策变化、通胀上升、财 政和人口结构失衡及外部冲击共同作用的结果。从长期视角看，日本人口老龄化趋势不断深化， 进一步限制财政空间与长期投资需求，对长期国债的稳定配置需求造成不利影响。日本正面临 结构性转型的窗口期，财政与债务结构面临调整，而国际环境的复杂性又可能削弱其缓冲能力， 未来仍面临波动上行风险。后续应主要关注美日关税谈判进展、超长债拍卖情况以及参议院选 举结果。若选举结果削弱执政联盟地位，市场或将重新定价对财政扩张的预期，从而对日本长 期国债收益率构成上行压力。 蒋文斌 国债研究员 从业资格号： ...

以"数"促收，强化财政数据化收入征管 中国发展网讯 记者郭建军报道 数字财政建设是适应数字经济、数字社会发展的必然选择，也是实现财 政高质量发展的关键路径。近年来，阳泉市财政局深入贯彻落实党中央关于数字中国建设的战略部署， 紧紧围绕市委市政府的决策，以数据为生产要素、以技术为驱动引擎、以制度为保障基础，逐步构建起 覆盖财政管理全链条的智慧化解决方案，助力财政管理从"经验决策"向"数据决策"深度转型。 以"数"筑基，构建财政数据化转型平台 积极参与智慧城市建设、政务服务平台优化等数字政府建设项目，推动数据共享，为财政数据的广泛应 用和价值挖掘创造良好条件。通过将财政业务纳入统一平台，确保数据可追溯，为精准科学编制预算提 供数据支撑；通过将部门所有收入纳入预算管理，全面提升财政统筹能力；通过强化部门决算等各类平 台数据与绩效管理数据共享、结果共用，实现绩效评价全流程覆盖，提升财政资金使用效益。以内生数 据治理与外部数据赋能为核心，构建"数字大脑+数字引擎"协同运作体系。充分运用先进信息技术手 段，自上而下地对财政业务流程进行梳理融合与重塑再造，完成财政信息化建设的高维提升，实现对财 政资金的全生命周期管理和资金运 ...

核心政策分析 特朗普经济政策的影响与前景 文/UNFX宏观 唐纳德·特朗普总统在其第二任期伊始便以惊人的速度推进其标志性的经济议程，这不仅是对其竞选承诺的兑现，更是一场对美国经济未来走向 的 高风险实验。核心政策—— 大规模减税与 广泛征收关税——已迅速落地，其潜在影响正成为各界关注和争论的焦点。 大规模减税 然而，经济学界的普遍共识是，关税本质上是对国内消费者征税。进口成本的上升将不可避免地转嫁到终端价格上，加剧通胀压力，侵蚀消费者购买力。耶 鲁大学的估计显示，这可能导致家庭收入实际下降。 此外，关税战扰乱全球供应链，损害依赖进口零部件或出口市场的国内企业，并可能引发贸易伙伴的报复，进一步损害美国经济利益。 新签署的减税法案，在很大程度上延续并扩大了第一任期的税收优惠，特别是针对企业和高收入群体。支持者认为这将刺激投资和经济增长，但其融资方式 ——大幅削减社会保障网——以及预计将增加的逾3万亿美元国债，引发了严重的财政担忧。 主流经济学家普遍警告，在已经高企的债务基础上进一步扩大赤字，将推高借贷成本，挤压私人投资空间，并可能导致长期经济增长放缓。将债务占GDP 比重推至二战后新高，不仅是数字上的变化，更是对 ...

从政策层面来看，就上半年而言，最主要的一件事情是央行在5月7日贸易冲突之后做了一次双降，降准 50个BP，降息10个BP，应该说降准的幅度是足够的，但是降息的幅度还是偏小一些，这也是我们后面 讨论货币政策的主线，整体货币政策的空间是越来越小的，所以货币政策没办法大开大合。在财政政策 方面，上半年的主线是靠前发力的，今年截至年中，政府债发行已经接近8万亿，去年大概是四五万 亿，同比是大幅增多的。如果只看用作项目的新增专项债，其实今年的进度是中性水平，不快不慢，因 为上半年主要还是发行了去年年底提到的2万亿特别国债，用于化解隐性债务。今年上半年主要是做化 债，下半年用于做项目的专项债应该也会加快发行的速度，往年都是在三季度之前集中发完。 对于未来的展望，我们还是预期会有降准和降息，预计降息可能是看20个BP，降准大概看50个BP，主 要的原因是经济层面三季度面临多重周期的下行，需要稳增长的政策。另外，要配合财政增发政府债 券，货币政策要给到一些配额。 首先是对于现在的货币政策来说，金融稳定越来越重要，到今年一季度末的时候，商业银行加权的净息 差已经收窄到了1.43%，净息差的稳定线或者说合意水平是1.8%，现在整 ...