G10 FX Strategy: Two Banks and Two Dollars | 27-Jun-2025 We expect USD/CAD to decline this year as Fed and Bank of Canada policy expectations diverge. However, CAD is likely to underperform other G10 currencies due to energy market and immigration dynamics. US Rates Strategy: Add Vol Surface Flatteners | 27-Jun-2025 We suggest buying 1m10y vs. 6m10y vol given cheap valuations. We maintain our 0QU5 call fly to play for a further repricing of the Fed's trough rate. Euro Area Rates Strategy: Dutch Pension Refo ...

澳新银行：预计新西兰联储7月份将维持现金利率在3.25%。 ...

RT Ray Dalio (@RayDalio)"I promise to not raise your taxes" and "I promise to not cut your benefits" are the two popular political promises that are inconsistent with the much more needed promise "I promise to cut the budget deficit to about 3 percent of GDP" that is required to prevent a big debt/dollar crisis. There is no way that the deficit/debt bomb problem can be sustainably dealt with unless there is a mix of tax revenue increases and spending decreases that are determined in a bipartisan way. Our re ...

Market Performance & Sentiment - The first half of the year saw an extraordinary market bounce from the April lows, with significant intra-quarter swings [1][2][3] - Sentiment change was notable, with Meta up almost 30% and JP Morgan up almost 20% [2] - The NASDAQ is on the verge of making a new relative high against the S&P, a key indicator for market players [7] - The S&P and NASDAQ made brief new highs, closing the first half near all-time highs with a VIX below 17 [8][9] Economic Factors & Risks - The first half of the year was one of the worst for the US dollar since the 1970s, with a nearly 7% move lower in the dollar index during Q2 [5] - A weaker dollar is beneficial for multinationals and the big tech trade [9] - The Fed lowered its growth target for the US for the second half of the year [10] - There is confusion regarding the Fed's next move, with scenarios for both lowering and maintaining interest rates [11][12] Sector Performance & Concerns - The reemergence of big tech companies has been a significant driver [6] - While tech may continue to drive the market higher, caution is advised due to potential shifts in the dollar or crude oil prices [9] - Energy, materials, home builders, retail, and pharma sectors are underperforming, indicating a lack of broad-based rally [9][10]

Joining us now is Evercore chairman emeritus and black rockck co-founder Ralph Schlaststein right here on set. It's great to have you. Welcome.It's great to be here. Let's start right there. Uh because what what an incredible second quarter we had.Uh tariff tantrum. Is it over. Is is the fear about peak tariffs behind us.Well, I I think you can never say it's completely behind us because I don't think we have a absolutely certain path as to where the president and his team are going to take the tariff discu ...

🔥 UPDATE: Most major banks now expect the Fed to cut rates by 25–100bps starting as early as July, while a few still see no cuts in 2025. https://t.co/rjnPVpIMYM ...

NEW: 🇺🇸 In a recent post President Trump suggests interest rates should be between 0.50% and 1.75%.The President also claims Fed Chair Jerome Powell has "cost the USA a fortune https://t.co/nPl6V64jGO ...

Interest Rate Impact - A 1% interest rate may solve the looming debt bubble [1] - A 1% interest rate provides an opportunity to refinance debt over an elongated period [1] - Minimal interest could make paying off massive debt more realistic [1] - Younger generations may be able to consider buying homes without massive debt overhang [1] Economic Consequences - The cost of goods will increase if interest rates go to 1% [1] - The value of the dollar will decrease significantly [2] Opportunities with Dollars - Opportunities include buying a house, buying a car, refinancing debt, and using credit cards [2]

Interest Rate Impact - Cost of goods will increase due to interest rate changes [1] - The dollar's purchasing power will decrease significantly [1] - Lower interest rates make buying a house, buying a car, refinancing debt, and credit card interest more affordable for those with capital [1] Investment Strategies - Individuals with the ability to save capital should consider two strategies [1] - Strategy 1: Accumulate as much capital as possible in "safe" ETFs like S&P, Nasdaq, or money market funds until rates are below 3%, then buy a house [2] - Strategy 2: Invest aggressively in assets like individual shares, crypto, and luxury collectibles, as their value is expected to increase parabolically with significantly lower rates [2]

Joining me now is Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist and CIO. Uh Mike, great to have you uh with me here. It's it's it's a fascinating round trip we've had, right, since early uh I guess since February in a sense.Where does the market sit in your mind relative to all the the kind of important drivers, right. I mean, we had this tariff policy scare and then a little bit of relief off of that. But in terms of the fundamental picture, technicals, demand for stocks, and all the rest of it. ...